[PPT] - COVID-19 Immigration Effects 2018 to August 2020 Working Draft - Key PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

COVID-19 Immigration Effects

2018 to August 2020 Working Draft - Key Slides

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Economic Family Refugees

1

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Programs Examined

Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic, Family and Refugees
TR to Permanent Resident transition
Asylum Claimants by Office Type
Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS),

Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment, spouses)

Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other

workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA)

Study Permits (international students)
Asylum Claimants
Citizenship
Visitor Visas

2

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August 2020 Highlights UPDATE

August immigration numbers continued to drop for permanent residents compared to July with a slight increase in temporary workers
PRs: Admissions continued to decline from 13,650 in July to 11,315 in August, driven by the decline in Economic. August Year-over-year

decline: Economic 70.8%, Family 48.6%, Refugees 60%

Applications: Increase from 10,380 in May to 11,957 in June. June year-over-year decrease 77.2% NEEDS UPDATE
Provincial Nominee Program: Decrease from 3,050 in July to 1,969 in August. August year-over-year decrease: 77.7%
TR to PRs transition: Further decrease from 2,950 in July to 1,705 in August (some double counting). August year-over-year decrease of 86.9% (i.e., those already in Canada)
Temporary Residents:
TRs/IMP: Slight increase from 11,475 in July to 12,565 in August. August Year-over-year decline: Agreements 38.4%, Canadian Interests 49.8%
TRs/TFWP: Slight decline from 8,060 in July compared to 7,390 in August. August year-over-year decline: Caregivers 53.4%, Other LMIA 25.2%. Agriculture had a significant increase of 73.8%, perhaps reflecting a later start

this year

Web “Get a work permit”: From 69,931 in August to 65,397 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year decline: 64.5%
Students: Sharp increase from 13,455 in July to 40,130 in August (peak month). However, August year-over-year decrease: 64.5%
Applications: Stable from 3,352 in May to 3,286 in June. June Year-over-year decrease: 91.6%
Web “Get a study permit”: From 67,292 in August to 59,474 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year increase: 12.5%
Asylum Claimants: Increase from 885 in July to 1,030 in August (about 75% inland). August year-over-year decrease: 83.7%
Settlement Services: Decline from 112,380 in April to 101,415 in May. Year-over-year decrease 9.8 percent
Web “Find immigrant services hear you”: From 13,216 in August to 6,007 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year decrease: 57.6%
Citizenship: Increase from virtually none in May (53) to 1,656 in June. June Year-over-year decrease: 92.0%.(2019 monthly average was about

20,000) NEEDS UPDATE

Web “Apply for citizenship”: From 39,479 in August to 41,263 in September (outside Canada). September 2020-2018 increase: 39.3%
Visitor Visas: Complete shutdown. China authorizations declined faster and sharper NEEDS UPDATE

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Permanent Residents

4

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PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-20

15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania

5

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Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-20

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Economic Family Refugees

6

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Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-20

25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania

7

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Admissions: Provincial Nominee Program— 2018-20

2,250 4,500 6,750 9,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

8

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Admissions: PRs Total, Provincial Nominee Program

Year to year comparison (monthly)—2018-20

90%
67.5%
45%
22.5%

0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90% 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2019-5 2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5 2020-6 2020-7 2020-8

77.7%
61.4%
30.9%
50.2%
71.4%
32.7%

45.6% 64.7% 13.5% 43.2% 38.4% 36.8% 57.3% 43.2% 25.4%

1.6%
29.7%
18.7%
36.2%
32.4%
64.2%
62.7%
44.2%
66.8%
84.6%
29.4%

28.1% 32.7%

4.1%

9.5% 18.3% 27.1% 24.7% 26.1% 14.3% 14.8%

6.6%
12.2%
21.1%
20.9%

PRs Total PNP

9

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Admissions: PRs Canada Total

Year to Year Comparison by Category—August 2020, Last Quarter

90%
67.5%
45%
22.5%

0% Economic Family Refugees

81.6%
77.9%
52%
60%
48.6%
70.8%

August 2020 April-June

10

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Admissions: PNP Provinces

Year-over-year Comparison by Category—August 2020, Last Quarter Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year

100%
73%
46%
19%

8% Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC

15.7%
24.5%
60.5%
70.7%
52.8%

7.7%

89.3%
76.5%
71.8%
80.7%
71.2%
87.5%

August 2020 Last Quarter

11

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Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship

Year to Year Comparison (August 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year

100%
75%
50%
25%

0% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK

36.1%
89.5%
42.5%
65.8%
51.4%
72.8%
85.3%
58.6%
76.8%
58.2%
72.9%
76.1%
64.5%
55.1%
66.4%
65.7%
75.8%
72.8%
77.1%
66.8%

August 2020 April-June

12

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Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents

By Program—2018-20

3,500 7,000 10,500 14,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP

13

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Admissions by Program: TRs to PRs

Year-over-year Comparison by Province—August 2020, Last Quarter Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year

100%
75%
50%
25%

0% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC

12.8%
24.7%
65.6%
51.6%
4.9%
53.9%
21.4%
88%
82.6%
96.6%
95%
85%
71.3%
85%

August 2020 April-June

14

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Admissions: TRs to PRs

Year to Year Comparison by Program—August 2020, Last quarter

100%
75%
50%
25%

0% IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP

36.1%
47.4%
11.7%
15.6%
89.7%
79.4%
88.5%
87.3%

August 2020 April-June

15

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Asylum Claimants: Office Type 2018-20

1,750 3,500 5,250 7,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Airport Border Inland

16

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Asylum Claimants: Office Type Year-over-year

Comparison by Category—August 2020, Last Quarter

100%
75%
50%
25%

0% Airport Border Inland

42.7%
92.5%
98.6%
78.1%
88.7%
94.4%

August 2020 April-June

17

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Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year

Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year—August 2020, Last Quarter

100%
72.5%
45%
17.5%

10% India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA

81.7%

9.7%

75.6%
72.3%
79.6%
84.9%
93.9%
37.1%
48.1%
53.2%
81.8%
68.6%
89.8%
79.4%
78.9%
93.8%
95%
83.1%
81.1%
76.6%

August 2020 April-June

18

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Temporary Residents

19

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IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-20

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA

20

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IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-20

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania

21

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TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-20

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania

22

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IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total

Year to Year Comparison (Monthly)

70%
52.5%
35%
17.5%

0% 17.5% 35% 52.5% 70% 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2019-5 2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5 2020-6 2020-7 2020-8

IMP TFWP

23

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Temporary Residents by Program Canada

Year to Year Comparison by Category—August 2020, Last Quarter

80%
60%
40%
20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA

47.4%
5.5%
70.3%
34.2%
58%
25.2%

73.8%

53.4%
49.8%
38.4%

August 2020 April-June

24

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IMP by Citizenship

Year to Year Comparison (August 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year

100%
75%
50%
25%

0% India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan

92.2%
42%
74.6%
95.5%
90.6%
86.1%
48%
78.8%
68.6%
21.5%
78.3%
56.4%
52%
58.2%
77%
63.4%
38.2%
61.2%
56.1%
40%

August 2020 April-June

25

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TFWP by Citizenship

Year to Year Comparison (August 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year

105%
70%
35%

0% 35% 70% 105% 140%

Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France

74.6%
59.8%
87%
80.6%
61.2%
47.4%
55.9%

13.5% 8%

14.9%
34.4%
40%
61.5%
73.9%
39.5%
9.1%
32%

57.8% 96.3% 127.6%

August 2020 April-June

26

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Work Permits—Web Interest

40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Canada Asia Americas Europe Oceania Africa Not captured

27

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Work Permits—Web Interest Year to Year Comparison (September 2020, Last Quarter)

Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year

60%
45%
30%
15%

0% 15% India USA Mexico UK Australia Pakistan Brazil Philippines UAE Saudi Arabia

14.6%
16.4%
32.2%
18%
25.3%
56.5%
29.1%
6.9%
5.8%
15.7%
25.4%
21.1%
36.5%
10.3%
26.7%
52.5%
34.6%
6.4%

5.7%

17%

Sep 2020 July-Sep

28

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Study Permits

29

SLIDE 30

Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-20

17,500 35,000 52,500 70,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania

30

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Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-20

30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies

31

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Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-20

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania

32

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Study Permit Holders by Citizenship

Year-over-year Comparison (August 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year

90%
67.5%
45%
22.5%

0% 22.5% 45% India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria

6.5%
27.5%
56.5%

36.8%

35.8%

27.5%

17.8%
41.2%
25%
40.3%
72.8%
72.3%
76.9%
81.5%
59.7%
80.1%
82.6%
61.7%
39.5%
66.7%

August 2020 April-June

33

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Study Permit Holders

Year-over-year Comparison by Province—August 2020, Last Quarter

90%
67.5%
45%
22.5%

0% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC

22.8%
11.2%
25.1%
4.6%
20.4%
24.1%
28.6%
54.2%
66.8%
73.5%
65.9%
64.9%
64.8%
79.2%

August 2020 April-June

34

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Study Permits—Web Interest

30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not captured

35

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Study Permits—Web Interest Year-over-year Comparison (September 2020, Last Quarter)

Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year

100%
75%
50%
25%

0% 25% 50% 75% India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan

44.4%
98.1%

12.4%

1.5%

22%

9%

9.7%

43.5%

33.1% 21.6%

17.2%
99.2%

42.9% 22.7% 29.6% 2.3% 6.9%

7.7%

60% 35.5%

Sep 2020 July-Sep

36

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Settlement Services

37

SLIDE 38

Settlement—By Service—2018-20

62,500 125,000 187,500 250,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Information and Orientation Services Needs Assessment and Referrals Language Training Language Assessment Community Connections Employment Related Services Resettlement Assistance Program

38

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Settlement Services

Year-over-year Comparison by Province—May 2020, Last Quarter

50%
37.5%
25%
12.5%

0% 12.5% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC

4.9%
7.7%
0.5%
5.2%
5.5%
11.1%

2.1%

30.3%
36.6%
41.0%
48.4%
46.3%
43.0%
42.8%

May 2020 Jan-March

39

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Settlement Services by Citizenship

Year-over-year Comparison (May 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Non-EU Not USA—Ordered by Number of PRs, 2018 base year

70%
52.5%
35%
17.5%

0% 17.5% 35% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria Pakistan Eritrea Iran Iraq Korea, South

12.4%
10.9%
7.7%

11.4%

6.3%

26.6%

7.6%
16.8%
12.7%

6.4%

50.2%
39%
45.5%
35.6%
51.8%
48.4%
36.2%
46.3%
59.6%
61.4%

May 2020 Jan-March

40

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Settlement Services—Web Interest

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-11 2019-2 2019-5 2019-8 2019-11 2020-2 2020-5 2020-8

Canada Asia Americas Europe Africa Oceania Other

41

SLIDE 42

Settlement Services—Web Interest Year-over-year Comparison (September 2020, Last Quarter)

Top 10 Countries by “Find immigrant services near you” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year

80%
60%
40%
20%

0% 20% India USA Brazil UAE Pakistan Nigeria Mexico UK ColombiaPhilippines

23.4%
48.3%
33.7%
37.7%
35.9%
22.4%
8.4%
5.1%
48.2%

13%

52.5%
71.9%
61.3%
59.8%
63.6%
55.7%
43.3%
33.2%
61.2%
30.8%

Sep 2020 July-Sep

42

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Citizenship

43

SLIDE 44

New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-20

7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania

44

SLIDE 45

Citizenship by Region of Birth

Year-over-year Comparison (June 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year

99%
96%
93%
90%
87%

Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France

96.7%
96.9%
98.4%
97.2%
98%
96.5%
98%
97.5%
96.6%
97.9%
89.9%
91.4%
94.9%
91.7%
94.4%
88.8%
93.9%
91.1%
90%
93.7%

June 2020 April-June

45

SLIDE 46

Citizenship—Web Interest

Note: Technical anomaly April - December 2019

45,000 90,000 135,000 180,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7

Canada Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania Not captured

46

SLIDE 47

Citizenship—Web Interest 2020 to 2018 Comparison (September 2020, Last Quarter)

Top 10 Countries by “Apply for Citizenship” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year

100%
50%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% USA India UK Pakistan UAE Nigeria China Brazil Turkey Bangladesh

5%
42.9%
15.5%
64.2%
35.3%

3.1% 12.3% 12.6% 12.5% 111.3% 1%

25.9%

1.6%

57.2%
21.8%

0.4% 6.9% 13.9% 23% 183.9%

Sep 2020 July-Sep

47

SLIDE 48

Approved Visitor Visas

48

SLIDE 49

Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-20

45,000 90,000 135,000 180,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4

Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other

49

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Visitor Visas—By Source Country

Year-over-year Comparison (June 2020, Last Quarter) Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year

100%
75%
50%
25%

0% 25%

China India Philippines Brazil Colombia Indonesia Pakistan Nigeria Trinidad Jamaica

4.6% 11.5%

0.7%
13.3%
28.6%

9.1%

29%
19.1%
20%
72.2%
95.8%
99.2%
98.5%
98.7%
99.1%
98.4%
97.2%
99.4%
99.7%
99.7%

June 2020 Jan-March

50

SLIDE 51

Research Questions

51

Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries

were most affected? Similarly, which programs and source countries recovered more quickly?

Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source

country?

Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or

tensions with China a factor?

Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for

which countries?

SLIDE 52

Annex

52

SLIDE 53

Top Countries Share of Total (2018)

10 Countries 25 Countries Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7% IMP 70.8% 86.4% TFWP 85.2% 93.2% Study Permits 70.3% 73.8% Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4% Citizenship 50.3% 71.5%

53

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Top Countries (2018)

Permanent Residents IMP TFWP Students Citizenship India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Philippines 19,647 Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 India 19,486 China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Iran 10,037 Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 PRC 9,718 Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Pakistan 9,406 USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 Nigeria 4,398 Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 USA 4,229 France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Egypt 4,115 Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Iraq 3,951 UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915 Saudi Arabia 2,870 France 3,836

54

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Data Sources

PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions
f Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries
TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and

Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category

Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim Office Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship

(2019 ranking), Claim Office Type and Claim Year

TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which

permit(s) became effective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became effective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became effective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became effective

Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became effective, Canada - Study permit

holders by province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became effective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for New Study Permit Applications

Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table
Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month
Web: Provided by IRCC

55