COVI VID-19 & Th The Future Of Of Plannin ing Aug ugust 13, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
COVI VID-19 & Th The Future Of Of Plannin ing Aug ugust 13, 2020 Petra Hur urtado do, Ph.D., Research h Director or Jo Pea a, Research h Assoc ociate Amer eric ican Pl Planning Ass ssoci ciatio ion Poll 1.1: Where are
Aug ugust 13, 2020 Petra Hur urtado do, Ph.D., Research h Director
Jo Peña ña, Research h Assoc
Poll 1.1: Where are you located?
Poll 1.2: What is your profession?
Poll 1.3: What do you feel when you think about the future?
The future is more unknowable than ever befo fore
up-side-down
their work
(climate change, social inequality, …)
"Planners compose and offer advice on preparing for an uncertain future."
Hoch, C. (1994): What planners do. Power, Politics, and Persuasion
"Planners help communities navigate change."
Tim Keane, Planning Director, City of Atlanta (Big City Planning Directors Institute, 2019)
Act Prepare Watch & Learn
Sources: The Future Today Institute; TrendOne
The Planning Profession APA .org Cities & Communities
Act = Emergency Response Prepare = interim transition phase until we have vaccine Watch & Learn = the future new normal Cities & Communities
IDed current planning-related pain points in communities (e.g., public space issue, …) and acted
members on a weekly basis ID how COVID-19 will change communities and how people live, work, play, learn, and move around over the next months and prepare planners Temporary fix versus permanent change? ID how COVID-19 will impact communities long-term and share knowledge with planners
The Planning Profession
IDed current planning process-related pain points and acted (e.g., virtual public meetings, etc., …)
members on a weekly basis ID how COVID-19 will change the way planners do their work over the next months and train and educate planners Temporary fix versus permanent change? ID how COVID-19 will impact the planning profession in the future and train and educate planners
Act = Emergency Response Prepare = interim transition phase until we have vaccine Watch & Learn = the future new normal Cities & Communities
IDed current planning-related pain points in communities (e.g., public space issue, …) and acted
members on a weekly basis ID how COVID-19 will change communities and how people live, work, play, learn, and move around over the next months and prepare planners Temporary fix versus permanent change? ID how COVID-19 will impact communities long-term and share knowledge with planners
The Planning Profession
IDed current planning process-related pain points and acted (e.g., virtual public meetings, etc., …)
members on a weekly basis ID how COVID-19 will change the way planners do their work over the next months and train and educate planners Temporary fix versus permanent change? ID how COVID-19 will impact the planning profession in the future and train and educate planners
Poll 2.1: What changes have impacted you the most in your personal life over the last several months?
Poll 2.2: What changes have impacted you the most professionally over the last several months?
Challenges
MEMBER CHALLENGES CONDITIONS UPDATES THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
Solutions Team Actions
sources to identify priority areas, including:
planners with ideas and solutions
Solutions Team
Communications Policy Research
Rapid Response
In-depth Response
COVID-19 Resources Page
https://planning.org/resou rces/covid-19/
to community needs during pandemic
Connect with Allied Professions
Connect with Practitioners
Distribution of Population vs. COVID-19 Deaths by Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin*
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control, Provisional COVID-19 Deaths by County and Race * As reported by counties with at least 100 COVID-19 deaths through July 15, 2020
Connect with Leaders
impacts to small businesses, essential jobs and budget changes
development
communities
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary, 08/07/2020
Connect with Action
Act = Emergency Response Prepare = interim transition phase until we have vaccine Watch & Learn = the future new normal Cities & Communities
IDed current planning-related pain points in communities (e.g., public space issue, …) and acted
members on a weekly basis ID how COVID-19 will change communities and how people live, work, play, learn, and move around over the next months and prepare planners Temporary fix versus permanent change? ID how COVID-19 will impact communities long-term and share knowledge with planners
The Planning Profession
IDed current planning process-related pain points and acted (e.g., virtual public meetings, etc., …)
members on a weekly basis ID how COVID-19 will change the way planners do their work over the next months and train and educate planners Temporary fix versus permanent change? ID how COVID-19 will impact the planning profession in the future and train and educate planners
We are not predicting the future; we want to learn with it
about developing a plan to learn
understanding the things we can’t control that will shape the operating environment
Sense-making
Connecting trends and disruptors to what planners do
Meaning-making
Guidance and thought leadership on how to navigate trends, disruptors, and uncertainty
Political and economic concentration, direction of recovery, government distrust, … Cities / Communities Planning Profession
Societal Trends Technological Trends Economic Trends Environmental Trends Political Trends
Recession, unemployment, local government budget shortfall, cancelled or delayed capital projects, shared economy, … Social inequalities, homelessness, lack of affordable housing, changing transportation behavior, … Digitalization, digital divide, cyber attacks, data privacy, AI, automation, … Climate change, decarbonization efforts, environmental conservation, …
population, growing diversity in U.S. population)
digitalization got accelerated, shared economy got disrupted)
the use of digital city twins in planning, autonomous vehicles)
shared streets and use of streets for leisure activities become permanent)
aging population, growing diversity in U.S. population)
and the use of digital twins in planning, autonomous vehicles)
Act Prepare Watch & Learn
E-commerce E-Planning
public mtgs. WFH and the future of
The Digitalization of Life
“Tens of millions of Americans do not have access to or cannot afford quality internet service.”
Brookings, 2020
“Before the pandemic, it was estimated that about 12 million students had no broadband access at home.”
NPR, April 2020
“[…] rather than relying on traditional economic or customer-survey-driven approaches, real estate leaders are looking to psychologists, sociologists, futurists, and technologists for answers.”
McKinsey, April 2020
adults who can work remotely would be likely to move to a new place if their work became remote indefinitely.”
Morning Consult
do so at least 1-2 days a week once the pandemic is under control.”
Morning Consult
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/50percent-of-all-these-malls-forecast-to-close-by-2021-green-street-advisors-says.htmlLive-Work-Pl Play in One Pl Plac ace
The Future of Lan and Use?
Downtown vs. neighborhoods? Obsolete commercial real-estate? City vs. Countryside? Does location still matter?
Societal Trends Technological Trends Economic Trends Environmental Trends Political Trends
Live-Work-Play in One Place
U.S. Mobility Changes by Destination: Parks: +60% Residential: +3% Transit stations: -24% Retail & Recreation: -17% Work places: -16%
Google Community Mobility Report
“More than 100 million people in the U.S. live more than a 10-minute walk from a park.”
Kinder Institute, April 2020
Live-Work-Play in One Place
The Seattle Times
“The national average in VMT dropped 72% from the beginning of March through April 7, but rural counties have now fully recovered to pre-COVID VMT levels while urban counties have reached 90% recovery.”
StreetLightData & Boston Consulting Group
The Future of Tran ansportation?
Private motor vehicle Public transit Walking, biking Shared mobility
Societal Trends Technological Trends Economic Trends Environmental Trends Political Trends
?
How to flatten the curve(s)?
flattened
There is no “normal” anymore. Equitable, sustainable, and resilient cities and communities should be the “new normal”.
A Digital Experience, A Critical Moment September 23 - 24, 2020 APA 2020 Policy and Advocacy Conference
Petra Hurtado, Ph.D. Research Director phurtado@planning.org Jo Peña Research Associate jpena@planning.org Stay up to date with APA: planning.org planning.org/resources/covid-19/