Council of Canadian Winnipeg Chapter Presentation by D.M. LeNeveu - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Council of Canadian Winnipeg Chapter Presentation

by D.M. LeNeveu

• The Council of Canadians (CC) is a non profit corporation

established in 1985 sustained by donations of volunteer supporters

• The Winnipeg Chapter is recognized by the Bylaws of the CC
• There are 4,400 supporters in Manitoba
• The CC mission is to promote economic and social justice and

protect and expand the commons

• CC campaigns include water rights, environmental protection, trade

agreements, climate change and aboriginal rights

• Our presentation focuses on the efficacy of EM proposed DSM

natural gas savings and on the climate change implications of the savings

The Efficiency Manitoba Act Provisions We Address

• Mandatory considerations 11(4) (b) the benefits and cost-

effectiveness of the initiatives proposed in the plan

• Efficiency Plans 9(e) an analysis of the reductions in

greenhouse gas emissions in Manitoba expected to result from the initiatives proposed

• Natural Gas Savings Targets incremental net savings that

are at least equal to 0.75% of the consumption of natural gas in the immediately preceding year.

• Regulations — general prescribing factors which the PUB

must consider h(ii) the societal benefits to be achieved by all or a portion of Efficiency Manitoba's initiatives

• Definitions: "consumption" means on a weather-adjusted

basis

Manitoba GHG Emissions

• 5

5 10 15 20 25 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Years GHG in Mt CO2e per year

Total MB Stationary Combust Transport Agriculture Paris Target MB Savings Acct Natural Gas Combust EM NG 0.75% target Net Zero Sequestration

The Efficiency Trap / Jevons Paradox

• Growth in consumption

always outweighs savings from efficiency

• Efficiency measures such as

furnace replacement lock in fossil fuel emissions and prevent meeting climate change targets

EM natural gas savings target of 0.75% per year is optimistic Growth Outweighs Efficiency

• DSM natural gas savings historically from

2001 to 2018 average 0.32% per annum

• Natural gas customer growth from 2001 to

2018 has averaged 0.6%

• Why is not natural gas consumption

increasing with time?

The decrease in Heating Degree Days driven by climate change reduces natural gas consumption

Heating Degree Days - Natural Gas Emissions - Natural Gas Consumed

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1995 2003 2011 2019 2027 2035 Year HDD (deg C) - GHG (kt/year)- Gas Consumed (Mm3/year) Heating Degree Days NG Emissions kt/a HDD Linear Fit 0.47%/a decrease GHG Linear Fit 0.24%/a save HDD extrapolated EM 0.75%/a Target Gas Consumed Mm3/a Gas Linear Fit 0.24%/a save

Heat Pumps beat natural gas heating for efficiency and GHG emissions

Heating Cost for Recent 2 Storey 2000 sq. Foot Home

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 year heating cost $ per year mid eff no tax mid eff plus carbon tax high eff plus carbon tax high eff no tax geothermal 3.36% yearly increase electric 3.36% yearly increase air to air heat pump 3.36%

Conclusion and Recommendations

• Weather adjusted consumption of natural gas based on HDD should result in

1) Growth in natural gas consumption will outweigh savings from EM efficiency measures consistent with Jevons Paradox 2) the 0.75% annual natural gas savings target will not be met 3) NPV natural gas savings benefits will be negative invalidating all the PACT cost test and LRI (lifecycle revenue impact) calculations

• EM natural gas efficiency measures such as furnace replacement will lock in GHG

emissions for decades and prevent emissions reduction.

• Heat pumps are more effective for natural gas savings and greenhouse gas reduction

than increased efficiency of natural gas combustion

• To benefit society the PUB should hold hearings on climate change mitigation that

brings together MB Hydro, Centra and EM

• EM plans should include

1) transition away from fossil fuels including natural gas, 2) replacement of incentives for more efficient natural gas heating with heat pump replacement programs designed to meet climate change targets.