Cost and GHG impacts of new oil sands technologies Experience - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Cost and GHG impacts of new oil sands technologies

Experience Nduagu*, Alpha Sow, Evar Emeozor, Dinara Millington

IAIA17, Montreal, QC April 7 2017 Relevant • Independent • Objective www.ceri.ca

Presentation at the 37th Annual Conference of the International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA17), 4-7 April 2017, Le Centre Sheraton Montréal Hôtel Montréal, Canada

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About Canadian Energy Research Institute

Overview

Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, non-profit research Institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public.

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Current Sponsors

Supporters include: In-kind support is also provided:

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Table of Content Oil Sands: Opportunities Vs. Challenges

Why This Study? Closing The Gaps

Methodology

Results

Concluding Remarks

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Oil Sands Opportunities: Economy

Opportunities Challenges To add $200 billion/year to Canada’s GDP in 20 years 700,000+ Jobs However, significant challenges exist

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Oil Sands Challenges: Costs and GHGs

High Costs and GHG Emissions

UK Canada Dilbit Canada SCO Brazil Marlim Nigeria Bonny Light Venezuela US Shale Norway US Non Shale

Russian ESPO Iraq Basrah Light

Iran Saudi Arabia California Heavy

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20 40 60 80 Crude Production Emissions (kgCO2e/bbl) Total production costs ($US/bbl)

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Why This Study? - Closing The Gaps

Significant R&D efforts towards oil sands development Potential outcomes of these efforts not well-understood Need to quantify cost and emissions reduction

• pportunities from emerging

technologies

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Methodology

Assessed potential GHG emissions and cost reductions by new technologies in oil sands in-situ extraction SAGD process divided into 7 segments Focus on technologies near commercialization phase (5 – 7 years) Data gathered from innovators, interviews, surveys, expert elicitation and secondary sources

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Methodology

Steam Gen Business Mgt Upgrading Reservoir Wells & Wellpads Water & Waste Teatment

Costs & GHG emissions reductions

Pipeline & Transport (PPT) (RES) (WWP) (WWT) (SG) (BM) (UPG)

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Methodology

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Impact of new technologies on direct fuel emissions

Results: Fuel Emissions of Bitumen Production

15.1 57.4 48.2 16.4 54.2 60.4 52.9 60.4 60.4 56.7 60.4 60.4 SAGD Base

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Impact of new technologies on supply cost

Results: Supply Costs of Bitumen Production

29.6 42.2 41.7 38.6 42 43.3 64.1 42.5 42.3 42.9 43.3 43.3 SAGD Base

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Results: Technology Configurations

Compatible processes and technologies

BM WWP RES WWT SG

Brownfield development

Steam solvent

Steam flood management Steam Solvent Magox precipitation and CO2 conversion OTSG

Greenfield development

Steam with CO2 co-injection Digitalization

• f EPC

Steam flood management Well pad standardization Steam/CO2 co- injection Evaporator DCSG Steam with CoGen Steam SOFC Steam-solvent Steam Solvent Chemical water treatment RT- OTSG Steam-solvent Cogen SOFC Pure Solvent Pure Solvent

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Results: Technology Configurations

Supply cost and GHG emissions

Brown field Steam Solvent Steam Solvent CoGen Pure Solvent Steam/CO2 co-injection SAGD Base Steam with CoGen

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

20 25 30 35 40 45 GHG emissions (kgCO2 /bbl) Supply Cost (C$/bbl)

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Results: Oil Sands Emissions & 100 MtCO2 Cap

40 60 80 100 120 140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

GHG Emissions (Mt CO2eq./Yr)

Steam-solvent Cogen (SOFC) Scenario Pure Solvent Scenario Steam DCSG Based Scenario Steam SOFC Based Scenario Steam-Solvent (FTB w/o DCSG) Scenario 100 MtCO2 Cap Total Direct Emissions with CH4 Policy

100 MtCO2eq. Cap

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EJS Fractal Systems IYQ ETX Systems Hi-Q MEG Energy HTL Invanhoe (now Fluid Oil) DSU Field Upgrading CCC Bayshore Petroleum

Results: Upgrading Technologies

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Results: Upgrading Technologies

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% EJS IYQ Hi-Q HTL Delayed coking Bitumen Dilbit (WCS)

API Gravity Volumetric yield (%) Resid Gas oil Diesel Kerosene Distillate Naphtha API

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Results: Upgrading Technologies

SAGD Dilbit API 20 Delayed Coking API 31 EJS API 19 IYQ API 22.9 DSU API 18 CCC API 21 Hi-Q API 20.4 HTL API 19 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 50 55 60 65 70

GHG emissions (kgCO2eq./bbl) WCS-eq. Supply Cost (C$/bbl)

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Clear pathways for significant costs and emissions reduction identified in this study Costs reductions of 12% to 46% GHG emissions reduction of 44% to 80% A significant room for oil sands production growth without reaching 100 MtCO2 eq/year However, de-risking promising technologies through further development (piloting and demonstrations) is imperative

Concluding Remarks

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Canadian Energy Research Institute Questions?

Experience Nduagu, Ph.D. Email: enduagu@ceri.ca Please visit us at www.ceri.ca