10/10/2011 1
Consistent Progress
Q2 2011 Fixed Income Presentation
7th October 2011
Consistent Progress Q2 2011 Fixed Income Presentation 10/10/2011 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Consistent Progress Q2 2011 Fixed Income Presentation 10/10/2011 1 7 th October 2011 Important Information Certain sections in this document contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the United States Private
10/10/2011 1
Q2 2011 Fixed Income Presentation
7th October 2011
Certain sections in this document contain ‘forward-looking statements’ as that term is defined in the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements that include the words ‘expect’, ‘estimate’, ‘project’, ‘anticipate’, ‘believes’, ‘should’, ‘intend’, ‘plan’, ‘could’, ‘probability’, ‘risk’, ‘Value-at-Risk (VaR)’, ‘target’, ‘goal’, ‘objective’, ‘will’, ‘endeavour’, ‘outlook’, ‘optimistic’, ‘prospects’ and similar expressions or variations on such expressions. In particular, this document includes forward-looking statements relating, but not limited to: the Group’s restructuring plans, capitalisation, portfolios, net interest margin, capital ratios, liquidity, risk weighted assets, return on equity (ROE), profitability, cost:income ratios, leverage and loan:deposit ratios, funding and risk profile; certain ring-fencing proposals; the Group’s future financial performance; the level and extent of future impairments and write-downs, including sovereign debt impairments; expected benefits from partnerships; the protection provided by the Asset Protection Scheme (APS); and the Group’s potential exposures to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity and equity price risk. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections, and are subject to inherent risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from the future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking
the market risk disclosures are only estimates and, as a result, actual future gains and losses could differ materially from those that have been estimated. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimated by the forward-looking statements contained in this document include, but are not limited to: the full nationalisation of the Group or other resolution procedures under the Banking Act 2009; the global economic and financial market conditions and other geopolitical risks, and their impact on the financial industry in general and on the Group in particular; the financial stability of other financial institutions, and the Group’s counterparties and borrowers; the ability to complete restructurings on a timely basis, or at all, including the disposal of certain Non-Core assets and assets and businesses required as part of the EC State Aid restructuring plan; organisational restructuring, including any adverse consequences of a failure to transfer, or delay in transferring, certain businesses, assets and liabilities from RBS Bank N.V. to RBS plc; the ability to access sufficient funding to meet liquidity needs; the extent of future write-downs and impairment charges caused by depressed asset valuations; the inability to hedge certain risks economically; costs or exposures borne by the Group arising out of the origination or sale of mortgages or mortgage-backed securities in the United States; the value and effectiveness of any credit protection purchased by the Group; unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, yield curves, foreign currency exchange rates, credit spreads, bond prices, commodity prices, equity prices and basis, volatility and correlation risks; changes in the credit ratings of the Group; ineffective management of capital or changes to capital adequacy or liquidity requirements; changes to the valuation of financial instruments recorded at fair value; competition and consolidation in the banking sector; HM Treasury exercising influence over the operations of the Group; the ability of the Group to attract or retain senior management or other key employees; regulatory or legal changes (including those requiring any restructuring of the Group’s operations) in the United Kingdom, the United States and other countries in which the Group operates or a change in United Kingdom Government policy; changes to regulatory requirements relating to capital and liquidity; changes to the monetary and interest rate policies of central banks and other governmental and regulatory bodies; impairments of goodwill; pension fund shortfalls; litigation and regulatory investigations; general operational risks; insurance claims; reputational risk; changes in UK and foreign laws, regulations, accounting standards and taxes, including changes in regulatory capital regulations and liquidity requirements; the recommendations made by the UK Independent Commission on Banking and their potential implications; the participation of the Group in the APS and the effect of the APS on the Group’s financial and capital position; the ability to access the contingent capital arrangements with HM Treasury; the conversion of the B Shares in accordance with their terms; limitations on, or additional requirements imposed on, the Group’s activities as a result of HM Treasury’s investment in the Group; and the success of the Group in managing the risks involved in the foregoing. The forward-looking statements contained in this document speak only as of the date of this announcement, and the Group does not undertake to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence
The information, statements and opinions contained in this document do not constitute a public offer under any applicable legislation or an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any securities or financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments.
Continuing momentum in business de-risking
Non-Core funded assets1 down £12bn (10%) in Q2 to £113bn; on target for full year goal
Solid performance in challenging market conditions
H1 Group operating profit up 65% y-o-y to £1.9bn due to reduced Non-Core losses In Q2 R&C again improved performance - UK Retail strongest contributor Insurance & US R&C – continued turnaround; Ulster impairments began to decline GBM fell back from a strong Q1 - risk aversion dampened client activity – H1 RoE still 15%
Working through the legacy issues
£850m provision for PPI claims £733m provision for Greek government bond exposure
Funding & liquidity position strong
Short term wholesale funding2 of £148bn, now stands below liquidity pool of £155bn
Well positioned to meet future Basel capital requirements
Strong Core Tier 1 ratio of 11.1%, RWAs3 down £9bn in the quarter Non-Core run-off of capital intensive, low return assets
1 Third party assets excluding derivatives. 2 Short-term wholesale funding consists of debt securities, bank deposits and subordinated liabilities with residual maturity of less than one year, excludes derivative cash
1
2
1 As at October 2008 2Amount of unsecured wholesale funding under 1 year including bank deposits <1 year excluding derivatives collateral. 3 As of December 2008 4 Eligible assets held for contingent
liquidity purposes including cash, government issued securities and other securities eligible with central banks. 5 Funded tangible assets divided by Tier 1 Capital. 6 As of June 2008 7 As of 1 January 2008.
8
Group return on tangible equity for 2008 9 Indicative: Core attributable profit taxed at 28% on attributable core average tangible equity (c70% of Group tangible equity based on RWAs). 10 Excluding fair value of own debt (FVoD). 11 2008. 12 Adjusted cost:income ratio net of insurance claims. 13 Under review.
Group – Key performance indicators Core Tier 1 Capital ratio Liquidity portfolio
4
Leverage ratio
5
Return on Equity (RoE) Cost : income ratio
12
Loan : deposit ratio (net of provisions) Short-term wholesale funding
2
Q211 2013 Target 11.1% £155bn 17.8x Core 12%
9,10
Core 58%
10
114% £148bn >8%
13
c£150bn <20x Core >15% Core <50% c100% <£125bn Worst point 4%
7
£90bn
3
28.7x
6
(31%)
8
97%
11
154%
1
£297bn
3
Returns: Balance sheet & risk:
Market leading businesses in large customer driven markets Anchored in the UK and in Retail and Commercial banking Strong and stable risk profile Investor friendly, strategic discipline, execution effectiveness and strong risk management
1
Excluding Fair Value of Own Debt (FVoD). 2 Equity allocated based on share of Group tangible equity. 3 Adjusted C:I ratio net of insurance claims. 4 Net of provisions.
£1.7bn +6% driven by UK Retail performance and Insurance turn-around
12%
Momentum in UK Retail offset by subdued GBM 3.22% +11bps due to higher asset margins, offsetting higher funding & liquidity costs 58% Reduction in GBM income driving increase in C:I ratio £0.9bn Reduction in most divisions, most notably GBM, UK Retail, US R&C 96% LDR improved, better than 2013 target of 100% Operating profit
1
Return on Equity
1,2
R&C NIM Cost : income ratio
1,3
Impairments Loan : deposit ratio
4
Group Progress: Core Business:
£1.6bn
12%
3.11% 57% £1.1bn 102% Q211 Q210 Q211 Q210 Operating profit Recovery largely due to lower Non-Core losses £818m £250m Reduction achieved, on target to be <10% of group assets FY11 Non-Core funded assets £113bn £174bn Robust capital position enhanced Capital strength 11.1% 10.5%
3
4
Geographic coverage
H111 revenues by geography 2010 Revenues by business mix vs peer average4
Business portfolio
H111 revenues1 by division
Business mix versus peers
59% 41% 66% 34% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Domestic market Non-Domestic market RBS Core Competitor Median
2010 Revenues by geography vs peer average4
1 RBS Core excluding RBS Insurance and Central items. 2 Excludes Ulster Bank. 3 Retail & Commercial. 4 Based on FY10 results, peers consist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays, BNP
Paribas, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Lloyds Banking Group, Morgan Stanley, Santander, Societe Generale, UBS.
43% 21% 32% 4% 36% 21% 43% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Domestic R&C International R&C Wholesale/IB Wealth/AM RBS Core Competitor Median
H111 operating profit1,2 by division
R&C3 68% GBM 32% US R&C 12% Ulster 4% GTS 9% Wealth 5% UK Retail 22% UK Corporate 16% R&C3 63% GBM 37% US R&C 5% GTS 9% Wealth 4% UK Retail 25% UK Corporate 20% RoW 5% US 21% UK 64% Europe 10%
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211
% Group Underlying R&C GBM
Robust underlying performance in R&C, up 1bps q-o-q; 11bps y-o-y Outlook for R&C NIM stable in H211 in absence of interest rate rises Group NIM partly impacted by incremental cost of funding and liquidity (2bps)4 GBM impacted by subdued Money Markets income
Quarterly NIM1 Progression
3.22%2 1.97% 0.70%
NIM1 Progression (Quarterly)
% 2Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 R&C 3.11 3.21 3.27 3.22 Underlying R&C2 3.11 3.21 3.21 3.22 GBM 1.01 0.93 0.76 0.70 Non-Core 1.23 1.09 0.90 0.87 Group 2.03 2.02 2.03 1.97 Group AIEAs3 704 661 659 662
1 Days basis. 2
Underlying Q111 NIM excludes one off income adjustment in UK Corporate. 3 Average interest earning assets (£bn). 4 Incremental cost of funding & liquidity 2bps Q111 and 2bps Q410.
5
Provisions and coverage, Q210 – Q211
£bn
£1.5bn increase in balance sheet provision in Q2 to £20.8bn Q2 Group impairments rose c£300m, as Non-Core saw a provision on Irish land
values and some individual corporate cases
Ulster Bank combined
2 impairment charge of £1,251m, £49m lower than Q111
Core impairments declined 2% due to improving trends in Core Ulster and US R&C,
partially offset by some individual corporate cases in UK Corporate
Overall, trends relatively stable; expect Irish impairments to decline in H2
Impairment trends, Q210 – Q211
£bn
2.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.3 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% 5 10 15 20 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Impairments % of loans
6
20.8 19.3 18.2 17.7 16.2 49.0% 45.0% 47.0% 47.0% 47.0% 5 10 15 20 25 30 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 30% 40% 50% Provision % of REIL
1 1 Provision balance as a percentage of REIL. 2 Ulster Bank Core and Non-Core.
10/10/2011 9
258 201 138 113 96 85 36 21 30-40 17 8 15
2008 2009 2010 FY 2011
1
2012 2013
£bn
Un-drawn commitments Funded assets 145bn 83-93bn
H1 2011
Funded assets down 56% from FY08 reflecting: — £62bn (55%) in Corporate — £34bn (72%) reduction in Markets — £26bn (41%)
2
reduction in CRE
— £13bn (62%) reduction in Retail
1
Previous target for funded assets for 2011 was £118bn. 2 46% reduction on a like-for-like basis adjusting for transfer of Irish mortgages to CRE portfolio – see footnote 3
7
Target FY11-FY13
Portfolio £20.1bn
Financing £8.6bn
£1.4bn
Markets
2008 Year-End funded assets
Total Assets = £258bn
Personal Lending £3.2bn
Personal Lending £11.9bn
£6.5bn
Retail
Commercial Real Estate
Finance £21.3bn
£24.2bn
£15.9bn
Securitisations £41.6bn
£1.9bn
Corporate
47 21
SME
£4.2bn
£1.6bn
Directa £4.5bn
£1.5bn
Other
112 6 63 9
Portfolio £10.1bn1
Financing £0.1bn
£0.1bn
Total Assets = £113bn
Markets
Personal Lending £1.6bn
Personal Lending £5.4bn
Retail Commercial Real Estate
Finance £13.7bn
£17.8bn
£5.4bn
Securitisations £11.5bn
£0.8bn
Corporate
13 8
SME
£2.4bn
£0.4bn
£0.7bn
Other
50 3 37 2 Q211 funded assets
1 SCP includes £5.6bn of Corporate (o/w CLOs £4.6bn), £1.3bn RMBS, £1.2bn CMBS and £1.1bn SPVs. 2 Affected by the replacement of Irish Mortgages with Irish Commercial Real Estate announced at H1
2010 results. As at 30 June 2010 the CRE portfolio transferred was £5.0bn.
8
2,366 43,511 3,552 683 14,808 c29,000 7,389 14,364 491 8,477 c14,500
ROI Liabilities ROI Assets Spain Italy Greece Portugal Germany Netherlands France Belgium
Lending Exposure
955 71 770 5,503 91 733 14,218 5,323 93
ROI Spain Italy Greece Portugal Germany Netherlands France Belgium
Sovereign Exposure1
Periphery Core
Funded with Intra-Group loans and equity
Modest peripheral government bond exposure Well-spread loan exposures - RoI predominantly a domestic balance sheet
% of Gross L&A 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 2.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.6% 1.5% 7.7%
Domestically Funded
Ex Ireland, lending is primarily
to large GBM multi-national customers
Long established domestic in-
market bank in Ireland
Eurozone exposures to ‘hard
currency’ countries outweigh peripheral exposures
1 Net AFS banking book debt securities exposures. 2 Ulster Bank and GBM assets.
2
9
18 5 13 65 17 5 12 66 Residential development Commercial development Residential investment Commercial investment Dec-10 Jun-11
%
1 Prior period US Retail and Commercial exposure has been restated
to reflect the alignment of USA SIC codes to UK SIC codes which is consistent with the Group's Sector Concentration
Commercial Real Estate exposure of £85bn, down 6% from FY10 Market remains challenging with low liquidity, Group is focusing on supporting
existing client base
£43bn (c.50%) of total portfolio designated Non-Core Speculative lending2 accounts for 1% of the portfolio
Total Portfolio1 £85bn Down £5bn from FY10
10 Citizens 4.9% UK Corporate 37.0% Non-Core 50.5% GBM 1.4% Ulster 6.3%
1
Excludes EMEA L&A of £0.4bn. 2 Provisions as a % of REIL. 3 Includes Core CRE Development lending REIL of £241m and provisions of £120m.
Ulster Bank – Core gross L&A, £37.4bn
Q211 L&A £37.4bn
Mortgages £21.8bn 58% CRE – Investment £4.3bn, 12% Corporate – Other £8.7bn, 23% Personal unsecured £1.6bn, 4%
Ulster Bank – Non-Core gross L&A
1, £14.9bn
Q211 L&A £14.9bn
CRE - Investment £4.1bn, 27% CRE - Development £9.0bn, 61% Other £1.8bn 12%
Ulster Bank – Core REIL, Provisions & Coverage
2
0.4 0.8 1.8 2.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.8 Mortgages Corporate - Other CRE - Investment Personal Unsecured & other REIL Provision
Ulster Bank – Non-Core REIL, Provisions & Coverage
2
REIL & Provisions, £bn
Total coverage 47%
CRE - Development £1bn, 3%
3
Coverage, % 7.8 2.7 1.2 4.4 1.2 0.7 CRE - Development CRE - Investment Other REIL Provision REIL & Provisions, £bn
Total coverage 53%
Coverage, %
38% 55% 39% 68% 56% 46% 54% 11
‘In the pack’ vs peers
(REIL as % of asset class) (REIL as % of asset class)
(9%) (21%) (19%) (17%) (87%) (65%) (68%)
CRE: 58% RoI 21% NI 21% UK Mortgages: 90% RoI 10% NI CRE: 65% RoI 26% NI 9% UK
10/10/2011 15
Resilient franchises building stable customer deposit funding base
GBM UK Retail UK Corporate US R&C Ulster Bank Wealth GTS 116 142 96 36 25 151 179 118 n.m.
Loan : deposit Ratio2, %
1
Deposits exclude bancasurance and stock lending, deposits in US R&C and GBM exclude repurchase agreements. 2 Loan : deposit ratio calculated net of provisions for loan losses, excluding repurchase agreements, stock lending and bancassurance deposits. 3 Group deposits include deposits in Non-Core and Group Centre.
112 109 83 144 45 26 96 114 n.m. FY08 Q211 Core
Deposit Trends1 (£bn)
GBM UK Retail UK Corporate US R&C Ulster Bank Wealth GTS 90 95 62 23 36 63 46 Q211 Q210 96 100 57 24 37 73 36 Total Group3 421 429 Group
12
Funding Profile is Improving
50 100 150 200 250 FY08 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% Group Customer funding gap (£bn) Group Loan to Deposit ratio (%) Core Loan to Deposit ratio (%)
Customer Deposits Wholesale Funding >1 Year Wholesale Funding <1 Year Bank Deposits
FY08 H111 £740bn
Actively terming out funding
FY09 £808bn £952bn
56% 50% 45%
% Wholesale Funding >1yr1
£bn
48% 52% 58%
Group loan to deposit ratio of 114%, (115% at Q111), funding gap closed by a further
£5bn in Q2 to £61bn
Core loan to deposit ratio remains at 96% NSFR improved to 97% from 96% at Q111 Customer deposits of 58% better than European peer average (54%)3
1
Excludes deposits received from customers and banks. 2 Excluding bank deposits. 3 Average of 90 European banks per EBA stress test, 2011 2
14
15 Group liquidity pool covers more than 12 months of short term wholesale funding needs Reduced requirement of wholesale markets to continue to maintain maturity profile of liabilities Deleveraging and issuance of secured term funding more than covers term refinancing requirement
1 Wholesale funding and bank deposits with residual maturity of less than 1 year, excluding derivative cash collateral. 2
Non-Core third party assets excluding derivatives. 3 Guaranteed and unguaranteed term debt and subordinated liabilities to contractual maturity.
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 £bn
2011 2013
Non-Core reduction lessens market funding requirement
Term Debt Maturing3 Non-Core Run-down2
2012
90 137 155 297 163 148 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 £bn
FY08 H111
Short-term wholesale funding1 halved since 2008 now stands below liquidity pool of £155bn
Liquidity pool Short-term wholesale funding1
H110
2011 funding plan calls for c.£23bn
term issuance
H1 gross issuance of £18bn: —
£8bn private
—
£5bn public secured
—
£5bn public unsecured
Issuance in H2 will be primarily private
placements and secured funding, little requirement for public unsecured in H2
CGS term funding outstanding of
£40bn, will be fully repaid by July 2012:
—
Q411 £18.7bn
—
Q112 £15.6bn
—
Q212 £5.7bn
1 Non-Core third party assets excluding derivatives. 2
Unguaranteed term debt and subordinated liabilities contractual maturity.
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 £bn
2010 2011 H1 2012
Target Issuance
2013 Asset reduction lessens market funding requirement
Gross Issuance CGS Maturity Term Maturity
2
Non-Core Run-down
1
2011 H2
16
USD 28% GBP 8% AUD 7% Other 11% EUR 46%
£22bn issued of FY11 issuance
target of c.£23bn
Strong private placement franchise €7.75bn of covered bonds issued
since programme inception (Q210) Key Deals in 2011:
Issued a total of $3.5bn SEC
registered bonds
2 covered bond issues totalling €3bn AU$ 1.7bn senior unsecured £4.6bn1 Arran RMBS deal in Q2 €2bn senior unsecured ¥30bn (c.£250m equiv) Retail
Uridashi deal H111 Debt Issuance by Currency
■ Unsecured ■ Securitisations ■ Private Placements ■ Covered Bonds ■ Unsecured ■ Securitisations ■ Private Placements ■ Securitisations ■ Private Placements ■ Private Placements ■ Unsecured ■ Private Placements
1
Total deal size, includes tranches retained by RBS. Sterling equivalent at issue date.
17
Build-up of liquidity reserves
48 16 15 8 10 30 54 41 35 32 41 42 9 7 59 AAA rated governments Treasury Bills Other government securities Cash and central bank balances Unencumbered collateral
£90bn FY08 2Q11 £155bn £137bn
Continued progress in increasing the strength of liquidity reserves
RBS continues to exceed its long-
term target of c.£150bn1 of liquidity reserves.
£35bn FSA eligible2 government
bond portfolio, up £5bn in Q2. includes UK, US and G10 government bonds
Targeting a build to c.£50bn FSA
eligible government bond portfolio by 2013
2Q10
1
£150bn target dependent on future balance sheet size and regulatory requirements. 2 Excluding RBS N.V, Citizens and Ulster Bank government bonds. 3 Includes AAA rated US government guaranteed and US sponsored agencies
£bn
£155bn
£150bn 2013 Target1
FY10
3
18
RWAs £bn Q211 Ulster pro- cyclicality Core Tier One Ratio %
impact of Non-Core de-risking
impairment for ‘sins of the past’)
Q111 Attributable loss Q211 RWA reduction &
1.3
(0.3) 0.2
1.3
9.9 9.8 APS cover Non- Core run-off 11.2 11.1 Q111 APS relief 440 98 434 95 538 529 (5) 5 Market / Counterparty Risk (9)
19
10/10/2011 23
Good R&C performance GBM disciplined in weak market environment Good bounce-back from previous under-performers, US R&C and Insurance, lower
losses in Ulster Core Franchises
Non-Core balance sheet £113bn, down 56% from inception and ahead of plan Reduced peripheral sovereign exposures Ulster impairments appear to have stabilised
Non-Core and Risk
LDR continues to improve, down 1% at 114% (Core LDR at 96%), funding gap down
a further £5bn in Q2
£18bn term issuance in H1; little required in H2 Provision balance up £1.5bn to £20.8bn, REIL coverage at 49%
Balance Sheet
Core Tier 1 ratio robust at 11.1% Well-positioned to support business plan and absorb regulatory capital increases
Capital position
20
10/10/2011 25
Capital & Balance Sheet 30 Jun 11 31 Mar 11 30 Jun 10 Funded balance sheet £1,051bn £1,052bn £1,058bn Risk-weighted assets (pre APS) £529bn
3
£538bn
3
£597bn
3
Core tier 1 ratio 11.1% 11.2% 10.5% Net tangible equity per share 50.3p 50.1p 52.8p Q211 £m Q111 £m Q210 £m Income 7,767 8,033 8,163 Operating expenses (3,892) (4,121) (4,103) Claims (793) (912) (1,323) Operating profit before impairment losses 3,082 3,000 2,737 Impairment losses (2,264) (1,947) (2,487) Operating profit/(loss) 818 1,053 250 Other
1
(1,496) (1,169) 924 Profit/(loss) before tax (678) (116) 1,174 Attributable profit/(loss) (897) (528) 257 Net interest margin 1.97% 2.03% 2.03% Adjusted cost:income ratio
2
56% 58% 60%
1
Includes fair value of own debt (FVoD), restructuring & integration costs, APS CDS fair value changes, credit market event, gain on redemption of own debt, PPI and strategic disposals. See slide
Calculated using income net of insurance claims. 3 Excludes £95bn RWA relief as of 30th June 2011, £98bn as at 31st March 2011 and £123bn at 30th June 2010.
21
£2.2bn vs minimum fee of £2.5bn
(£850m) and full MTM impairment
primarily reflect commencement of programme moving RBS NV assets into RBS plc
non-recognition of tax on Irish losses (£0.2bn) and Greek impairment (£0.2bn)
£m Q211 £m Q111 £m Q211 vs Q111 £m FVoD 339 (480) 819 APS CDS fair value changes (168) (469) 301 Amortisation of purchased intangible assets (56) (44) (12) Integration & restructuring costs (208) (145) (63) Gain on redemption of own debt 255
PPI (850)
Credit market event - Greece (733)
Other (75) (31) (44) Total (1,496) (1,169) (327) Tax Tax credit at statutory rate 179 31 Actual tax (charge)/credit (222) (423) Difference (401) (454)
22
1
Includes Central Items not broken out above: £2m debit in Q310, £4m in Q410, £1m in Q111, and £27m in Q211.
Core Impairments Q210 – Q211, £bn
Q210 £m Q310 £m Q410 £m Q111 £m Q211 £m Comments UK Retail 300 251 222 194 208
26% relates to secured lending
UK Corporate 198 158 219 105 218
Small number of specific cases and non-repeating Q1 release
Wealth 7 1 6 5 3 GTS 3 3 3 20 54
Reflects a single name provision charge
Ulster Bank 281 286 376 461 269
Q1 charge included adjustment for credit metric changes
US R&C 144 125 105 110 66
Continued improvement in credit quality
GBM 164 (40) (5) (24) 37
Reflects a single specific provision
Total1 1,097 782 930 872 853
Total Core Ulster Bank Core Core excl. Ulster
Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211
0.3 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.9 (28%) (22%)
Slowdown in the deterioration of mortgage portfolio credit metrics Small number of single names in UK Corporate In Q2
23
1
Calculated on a product basis from the Company Announcement disclosure.
Non-Core impairments Q210 – Q211, £bn
Q210 £m Q310 £m Q410 £m Q111 £m Q211 £m Comments CRE 1,224 921 1,113 863 1,235
Includes £300m of Ulster land value provisions
Manufacturing (260) (48) 20 (2) 41 Other Corporate 281 224 (30) 132 56 Mortgages 80 60 51 54 65 Other personal 49 17 48 27 17 Other 16 (3) 9 1 (3) Total 1,390 1,171 1,211 1,075 1,411
Driven by continued difficulty in Irish CRE
1
Total Non-Core Ulster Bank Non-Core Non-Core ex. Ulster
Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211
1.0 0.7 0.4 1.4 (37%) Includes £300m land value provision in Q211 Small number of large corporate names in Q211 24 1.4 +39% 0.7
50 1 00 1 50 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan 1 1 M ar 1 1 M ay 1 1 Jul 1 1 Sep 1 1
RBS Lloyds Barclays HSBC
Absolute Year-to-Date CDS Performance RBS CDS price does not reflect the significant balance sheet improvements made over the last 3 years. There are five main issues quoted by the market as to why our CDS is at this level: Substantial government ownership Undergoing one of the largest bank restructurings in history Legacies of the past Irish position via the ownership of Ulster Bank Significant wholesale funding outstanding and counterparty hedging
25
Improving operating profit and RoEs in US R&C US R&C commercial loan growth
26
82 206 129 102 113 7% 2% 3% 3% 4% 50 100 150 200 250 300 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Operating profit/(loss) RoE
$m
30.9 32.2 34.0 20 30 40 Q210 Q111 Q211 US R&C Corporate & Commercial loans
+10%
$bn
2.79% 2.89% 3.00% 3.01% 3.11% NIM:
1 1 Excludes $113m pension credit 2 Core Ulster Bank. 3 At CFX
Turning the corner on Ulster Bank provisioning2 Sustaining customers while improving funding profile3
Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Impairment charge
£m
23.5 23.4 23.5 37.7 36.4 35.9 10 20 30 40 50 Q210 Q111 Q211 Ulster Bank Deposits Ulster Bank Loans
£bn
Funding gap £14.2bn Funding gap £12.4bn
Primary focus in macro, financing & risk management A balanced geographic mix1 Working to retain through the cycle value creation and efficiency ratios Key issues
1 Q211
Q210 1.9 Q111 Q310 Q410 Currencies 1.6 Rates Equities 1.6 Banking 2.4 Credit Markets
Revenues, £bn
15% 11% 23% H110 H210 H111 RoE 1.6 Q211
27 Intense focus on steering through tough market safely
while sustaining client franchises
Additional cost measures underway Major change programme continuing: Basel III; RBS NV
migration to RBS plc; E-commerce investment
Client activity reduced due to Sovereign concerns and
subsequent low risk appetite
We remain cautious until macro concerns settle
60% 66% 49% H110 H210 H111 C:I Ratio UK, 28% EMEA, 22% APAC, 16% Americas, 34%
Risk profile adjustments made
400 800 1,200 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Claims
£m
(37%)
Helping drive a return to profitability
100 200 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Operating profit / loss
£m
1 Source FSA 2010 Returns.
Sustained market position1 Update
28 On-track for commencement of
IPO/sale process H2 2012
Intense programmes on cost,
claims and customer targeting
Good progress on distribution
partnerships Motor Home Pet Travel Personal Lines Market rank Market share #1 18% #1 14% #3 13% #4 10% #1 12% A diversified business mix
3% 8% 8% 9% 21% 51% H111
Motor Home Rescue & other PL Commercial International PL Broker
Income by product £2.0bn
Our dedicated Investor Relations team is available to support your research For Corporate Access
Emily de Vismes Assistant Manager, Investor Relations Emily.deVismes@rbs.com +44 20 7672 1761 Sarah Bellamy Assistant Manager, Investor Relations Sarah.Bellamy@rbs.com +44 20 7672 1760 Alexander Holcroft Head of Equity Investor Relations Alexander.Holcroft@rbs.com +44 20 7672 1982 Anne-Marie Hartnett Senior Manager, Investor Relations Anne-Marie.Hartnett@rbs.com +44 20 7672 1958
For Equity Investors & Analysts
Matthew Richardson Manager, Investor Relations Matthew.Richardson@rbs.com +44 20 7672 1762 Emete Hassan Head of Debt Investor Relations Emete.Hassan@rbs.com +44 20 7672 2422
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Greg Case Manager, Investor Relations Greg.Case@rbs.com +44 20 7672 1759 Richard O’Connor Head of Investor Relations Richard.OConnor@rbs.com +44 20 7672 1758 RBS Group Investor Relations, 280 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 4RB Visit our website: www.rbs.com/investors
For Asia Pacific Investors, Analysts and Counterparties
Søren Nikolajsen Head of Long Term Liability Strategy, Asia Pacific & Middle East Soren.Nikolajsen@rbs.com +852 3961 3668
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