Community Resilience Qualitative Validation & Insight into - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Community Resilience Qualitative Validation & Insight into Avoidable A&E Visits

Ian Duke Hounslow Together Board, 5 October 2016

• 1. Quick Reprise
• 2. Further insight into three LSOAs
• 3. Insight into Avoidable A&E Visits
• 4. Next Steps?

• 1. Quick Reprise

Year Total % Increase Male % Increase Female % Increase 2011 255,334

• 128,337
• 126,997
• 2015

273,290 7% 137,718 7.3% 135,573 6.7% 2020 290,790 6.4% 146,734 6.5% 144,056 6.3% 2025 303,756 4.5% 153,321 4.5% 150,436 4.2% 2030 314,101 3.4% 158,503 3.4% 155,597 3.4% Overall Increase 58,767 23% 30,166 23.5% 28,600 22.5%

Overall Population Growth

Hounslow Community Resilience Model

1.

Quantitative Measure

To flag up areas of concern

2.

Qualitative Validation

To validate the findings

3.

Detailed network analysis

To understand community resilience

Test 1: Validating findings

A small local area in Lower Feltham

• 1. Desk Based

Review

• 2. On the

Ground

Domains

Low wellbeing Lower satisfaction with life overall, income, amount of leisure time, and concerns about managing financially Average wellbeing Average satisfaction with life overall, income, amount of leisure time, and concerns about managing financially High wellbeing Higher satisfaction with life overall, income, amount of leisure time, and concerns about managing financially Neighbourhood Support High social solidarity and high belonging Competence High levels of capability and low levels of stress Isolated Low levels of belonging and local levels of social solidarity Emotionally fragile High levels of stress and low levels of capability

Wellbeing Resilience

Local Profiles

LSOA 003D: Brentford – area above the river and below the M4. LSOA 021A: Hounslow Heath – adjacent to Hounslow Heath, and close to the barracks. LSOA 004A: Heston Central – area near to Heston Park / swimming baths, and the motorway

Asset mapping and validation process

• Hard and predictive data
• Additional desktop data

collection

• Identify assets and

stakeholders

Desk based review

• Meetings & visits
• In-depth understanding
• f community of how

assets operate

• Iterative process

Community conversations What does this tell us about the area? What does this tell us about the tool?

LSOA Hounslow 004A: Resil ilience and wellb llbein ing profile

Ward: Heston Central Locality: Heston and Cranford

This LSOA is located just south of the M4, and covers Heston Park, New Heston Road and Westbrook Primary School (marked

• n the map with its old name of Andrew Ewing School).

It is relatively deprived, being ranked in decile 3 on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (where decile 1 contains the 10% most deprived LSOAs in England and decile 10 contains the least deprived 10%).

Profile: Actual data for LSOA

Self Age Benefits Deprivation Education Health Income Fuel poverty Qualifications Work Supports Housing Participation Social action Support Transience Systems/ infrastructure Accessibility Environment Public services Safety Transport

Analysis

This area is one of the three identified as scoring particularly badly for resilience on the predictive data. On the hard data the area scores neither particularly well nor particularly badly, with all but two factors close to the borough average. The predictive data, by contrast, is very poor for this area; it scores consistently poorly for every cluster

• ther than Isolation.

Profile: Predictive data by OA

Output area Low wellbeing High wellbeing Neighbourhood support Competence Isolation Emotional fragility E00013032 E00013033 E00013034 E00013035 E00013040

LS LSOA Hou

• unslow 00

004A Heston

Community Conversations- Heston

LSOA Hounslow 004A 004A- Heston

Neighbourhood support

• Lots of change
• New people
• Difference emphasised
• Comparison to the

‘village’ of the past

• Active residence

association but do not engage Heston Grange

• Area in South report

more residential support Competence

• Frustration with

Council

• People don’t come to

surgeries

• Low engagement
• ‘People keep to

themselves’

• Change and fear of

impact of new developments Isolation

• Impact of urban design
• People keep to

themselves

• Lots of change
• Intergenerational

changes

• New leisure centre

complex and park

LSOA Hounslow 021A: Resil ilience and wellb llbein ing profile

Ward: Hounslow Heath Locality: Central Hounslow

This LSOA is located to the north-east of Hounslow Heath and just south of Staines Road. It covers a number of residential streets including Drayton Close and Roseheath Road. Wellington Road South is on the area’s eastern edge. It is relatively deprived, being ranked in decile 3 on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (where decile 1 contains the 10% most deprived LSOAs in England and decile 10 contains the least deprived 10%).

Profile: Actual data for LSOA

Self Age Benefits Deprivation Education Health Income Fuel poverty Qualifications Work Supports Housing Participation Social action Support Transience Systems/ infrastructure Accessibility Environment Public services Safety Transport

Analysis

This area is one of the three identified as scoring particularly badly for resilience on the predictive data. On the hard data the area scores neither particularly well nor particularly badly, with all but two factors close to the borough average. The predictive data, by contrast, is very poor for this area; it scores consistently poorly for every cluster

• ther than Isolation.

Profile: Predictive data by OA

Output area Low wellbeing High wellbeing Neighbourhood support Competence Isolation Emotional fragility E00013150 E00013153 E00013155 E00013160 E00013161 E00013177

LSOA Hounslow 021A Hounslow Heath

Community Conversations

Neighbourhood support

• Each street is different –

physically & people’s narratives

• Intergenerational changes and

building area over time

• Cobbs Estate: older more

established community- ‘look after each other’

• Midsummer Day Center brings

together older Asian men

• Muslim people living in the area

engage through mosque

• Poor support in Midsummer

Estate

• Know people on own road but

NOT in the area Competence

• People don’t really engage
• “people see what’s going on but

don’t call”

• One or two ‘busybodies’ that do

engage

• Difficulties in Midsummer

Estate

• Mixed picture

Isolation

• Each street is different with

little in the way of linkages

• Access to shops but no

community facilities

• Good park and open space

provision but not necessarily usage across the whole area

• Organisations not really working

in the area

• Very good local school draws

people to the area

LSOA Hounslow 021A Hounslow Heath

LSOA Hounslow 003D: Resilience and wellbeing profile

Ward: Brentford Locality: Brentford and Isleworth

This LSOA is bounded by the M4 to the north and the Thames to the south, with Griffin Park football ground on the western edge. It is relatively deprived, being ranked in decile 3 on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (where decile 1 contains the 10% most deprived LSOAs in England and decile 10 contains the least deprived 10%).

Profile: Actual data for LSOA

Self Age Benefits Deprivation Education Health Income Fuel poverty Qualifications Work Supports Housing Participation Social action Support Transience Systems/ infrastructure Accessibility Environment Public services Safety Transport

Analysis

This area is one of the three identified as scoring particularly badly for resilience on the predictive data. On the hard data the area scores neither particularly well nor particularly badly, with only a few factors differing a great deal from the borough average. The predictive data, by contrast, is very poor for this

• area. Most of this area scores poorly across the

board, with the only exceptions being the areas closest to the motorway, at the northern end of the LSOA.

Profile: Predictive data by OA

Output area Low wellbeing High wellbeing Neighbourhood support Competence Isolation Emotional fragility E00012747 E00012749 E00012768 E00012771 E00168184 E00168186 E00168193 E00168856

LSOA Hounslow 003D: Brentford

Community Conversations- Brentford

Neighbourhood support

• In past :rely on a individual:

Betty.

• Community is unengaged -
• Compounded by tenancy and

transience issues

• Exacerbated by spatial layout
• Haverfield Alleys
• Towers floor plan
• Railway separates area
• High street to the South

Competence

• “No confidence to act” –
• ver-reliance on Betty
• Frustration with Council

and expectation that Council should do more

• People don’t come to

surgeries

• People rely on questioning
• ne or two residents
• Sheltered housing areas do

their own thing (island) but don’t know how to engage Council Isolation

• Physical: Great Western

Quarter vs. Towers vs Haverfield

• Separated from high

streets/ FC / Waterman

• ‘bubble’ ‘island’
• ‘even play grounds

segregated’

• “People keep to

themselves’

• Change: people & culture
• Lack of community events,
• rganisations OR people

don’t know about it

LSOA Hounslow 003D: Resilience and wellbeing profile

Reflections on the Model

• Increasing confidence that the model does do what is was designed

to do

• Our understanding of what it is telling us is improving
• In each case LSOA we broadly found what we expected to
• Whilst it tells us what we will find it does not tell us the why
• It its ‘in the red’ it can’t tell us if community is ‘at risk’ ( eg. Heath) or

‘in crisis’ ( e.g Heston)

• Nor can it therefore give us the fine grain
• This still require qualitative validation, but this is now much more

streamlined

Neighbourhood Support

Reflections on Neighbourhood Support

• Shows levels of social solidarity and feeling of belonging
• These are the areas that where when someone needs help they are

likely to have a local network who can help or guide them.

• Doesn’t mean it is the right help however – it can reinforce

behaviours that we might want to change

• Weaker areas generally overlay with where the borough has

experienced greater levels of population churn/change in recent years

• Relationships developed over time seem more important (to date)

than associations - an area we would want to look at more closely

• Clear spatial element – urban design

Isolated

Reflections on Is Isolation

• Not a clear mirror with Neighbourhood Support – Lower Feltham

shows strong Neighbourhood Support, high Isolation

• Perhaps difficult to break into settled networks especially where there

is no association (clubs, VCSE etc)?

• Age is clearly a factor but in this analysis we have accepted this and

not focused on it

• Overlays with higher Private Rented Sector & HMO rates
• Geographical isolation and access to services are factors
• Urban design can act as a blockage

Competence

Reflections on Competence

• This map shows high levels of capability and low levels of stress
• It shows where the areas where when people need help, they are

able to navigate in order to overcome and resolve a problem

• Low competence demonstrates itself in frustration and a feeling that

someone (often the Council) should do more, while Councillors/ Officers feel community is ‘‘unengaged’ - could be tested

• Representative structures such as Resident Associations don’t seem

to help competence but perhaps reliance – would need testing

• Isolation from power and information structures would seem to

reduce competence

• 3. A&E Visit Insight
• Asked to see what this model might tell us about A&E visits
• In part this will help test whether this model can support the JSNA
• Looked at A&E visits in total and
• As a proxy for ‘avoidable’ visits, where only advice was provided

Reflections

• What the model in this case seems to provide is an insight into

behaviours

• Avoidable A&E usage would seem to have a strong behavioural aspect

to it given the concentration in one part of the borough and the lack

• f relationship with overall A&E usage
• Competence shows levels of capability and stress affecting an

individuals ability to decide how best to access services

• Neighbourhood Support is more likely to reinforce norms of service

usage whether right or wrong

Comments? Next Steps?