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Comments on the 2019-20 Economic Outlook Presentation to the Addison County Economic Development Corporation December 7, 2018 Jeffrey B. Carr President and Senior Economist Economic & Policy Resources, Inc. Now the 2 nd Longest Up -

Comments on the 2019-20 Economic Outlook Presentation to the Addison County Economic Development Corporation December 7, 2018 Jeffrey B. Carr President and Senior Economist Economic & Policy Resources, Inc.
Now the 2 nd Longest “Up - Cycle” Ever...
No Longer Seeing Synchronized World GDP Growth...and Growth is Easing Back...
Volatility is Back...Especially in Equities Prices
Nine Years of Output Gains Has Had Its Benefits...
Over 20 million Jobs Added and the Lowest Urate since the 1960s is “Nothing to Sneeze At...”
But the Reality is that it has Been One of Slowest U.S. Labor Market Upturns Ever...
TCJA of 2017 was supposed to spur a “Boom” in Business Investment...Started Off OK...but has ebbed...
An Unprecedented Period of Low I-Rates...Which is Now Changing as the Fed “Normalizes” Policy.
KEY- Debt Service is still lower than the early 1980’s...But Will it Last as the Fed Increases Interest Rates?
Oil Prices Are Also Losing Traction...in an Evolving Oil Price World Where the U.S. has Now Become the Largest Global Producer...
“Student Loan Debt” Has Exploded...Since 2003
Inflation is Still Well Under-Control...
Jobs in VT have Been Flat, Even Negative, Over the Last Four Months...
VT Job Change Has Disappointed...especially Outside Northwest Vermont.
House Values Have Firmed and are on the rise in all States...and Have “Recovered” in VT, MA and ME...
Change in Average Wages by Region — Addison County Does OK....
But Not So Well Versus the VT Average for Job Change...but Still Better then the Rest of VT.
VT Job and Average Wage Change...Together
“Slow -As- You Go” U.S. Outlook Per the “Fed” According to the Fed’s Latest Mid -Year Forecast (from September, 2018 Release)
Odds of a Recession Still Remain “Low...” http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#qa=20160601003
Or Are They Really… http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#qa=20160601003
Contact Information Jeffrey B. Carr, President and Senior Economist Economic & Policy Resources, Inc. 400 Cornerstone Drive, Suite 310 P.O. Box 1660 Williston, Vermont 05495 U.S.A. jbc@epreconomics.com http://www.epreconomics.com/

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