Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities Susan Brower, Minnesota State - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities Susan Brower, Minnesota State - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer July 2015 MN ranks highly on a large number of indicators Source: Minnesota Compass Population growth since the recession 3 Big Aging, aging, aging

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Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities

Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer July 2015

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MN ranks highly on a large number of indicators

Source: Minnesota Compass

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3 Big

Demographic Trends

  • Population growth

since the recession

  • Aging, aging, aging
  • Increasing diversity—

ethnicity, language, religion, etc.

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Trend 1 Post-recession growth: What’s changed? What’s stayed the same?

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U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

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Source: CURA Reporter, Winter/Spring 2014

Population loss along western edge of state, down into Southwestern prairies has been long- standing

U.S. Census Bureau data

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Population growth rates have converged

  • ver the last decade

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program. Note: Suburban=Anoka, Dakota, Washington, Exurban=Carver, Chisago, Isanti, Scott, Sherburne, Wright

  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Annual percentage change in population

Benton, Stearns, Olmstead Exurban Greater MN Hennepin, Ramsey Suburban

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Growth rates are converging nationally too

Source: Brookings Institution

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Fargo, Twin Cities metros grow quickly,

  • thers stable

0.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7%

Average annual growth 2010-2014, MN Metros

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In rural areas, nature drives population change McGranahan, 1999: Natural amenities: climate, topography and water explain a large proportion of all non-metro population growth

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Spencer Platt, Getty Images, 2014

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Hans Mattson

  • n

Minnesota’s Climate 1872

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  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Alexandria Waite Park Moorhead Perham Bemidji Sartell Detroit Lakes Little Falls Park Rapids La Crescent
  • St. Peter
Mankato
  • St. Joseph
Biwabik Rochester Morris Grand Rapids Babbitt Dodge Center Worthington Thief River Falls Moose Lake North Mankato East Grand Forks Bagley Pelican Rapids Rushford Mountain Iron Grand Marais Austin Roseau Cloquet Fergus Falls Janesville Gilbert Ely Aurora Warren Hoyt Lakes Princeton Willmar Brainerd Le Sueur Marshall Red Wing Owatonna Litchfield Crookston Duluth Wadena Warroad
  • St. James
New Ulm Winona Glenwood
  • St. Charles
Windom Plainview Hinckley Hutchinson Albert Lea Waseca Slayton Eveleth Virginia Luverne Redwood Falls Two Harbors Breckenridge Elbow Lake Staples Glencoe International Falls Olivia Sleepy Eye Pipestone Fairmont Winsted Ortonville Benson Granite Falls Sandstone Renville

Source: MN State Demographic Center, Annual Population Estimates

Average population growth (percent), “Coalition” cities, 2010-2014

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Recap: Growth at a glance

  • Metro and urban areas have different growth drivers
  • Big change since the recession for densely populated,

urban areas and their suburbs

  • More of the same for rural areas of MN since the

recession.

  • Greater MN population growth is simultaneously strong,

stable and declining.

  • Natural amenities are Minnesota’s “secret sauce” and its

“kryptonite”

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Trend 2 Population Aging

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How many additional “older adults” will Minnesota gain during this decade?

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

85 55 71 67 47 91

  • 1950s

60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)

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Unprecedented increases in MN’s “older adult” population

85 55 71 67 47 91 285 335 97 66 56 1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

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250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000 Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 89 90+

Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2015

Female Male

Why are the changes so marked now?

65 years

Source: MN State Demographic Center Projections

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Minnesota’s projected net migration and natural change, 2012-2065

Source: State Demographic Center projections, U.S. Census Bureau data used as base population for projections

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Budget pressures will change More 65+ than school-age by 2020

671,188 1,556,161 1,254,770 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 18-24 65+ 5-17

U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

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General Fund Expenditures Within Health & Human Services

K-12 Education 42% Health & Human Services 31% Higher Education 8% All other areas 19%

  • Medical Assistance

Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion)

  • Medical Assistance

Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 billion)

  • MA expenditures include

basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care

Changing demand for public services

Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

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Projected Growth in Labor Force

Annual Average, Ages 16+

32,000 38,000 25,000 8,000 4,000 13,000 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

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Trend 3 Increasing Diversity

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Source: mncompass.org

50 years of growing diversity in our region, state, nation

36% 17% 24% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Percent Of Color, 1960-2010

U.S. MN Twin Cities

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Between 2000 and 2010 most of Minnesota’s growth was Populations of Color

Of Color 86% White 14%

350,000 more Minnesota residents in 2010 than in 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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Black, Latino and Asian populations growing rapidly

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Populations of color, MN

American Indian Asian Black Hispanic Two or more races

Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

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Number of foreign born in Minnesota 1920-2012

489,979 400,263 291,141 230,924 151,925 102,100 105,400 114,108 256,705 396,176 Source: Tabulated from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

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+

Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, U.S. Census Bureau data

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Source: Department of Homeland Security, Primary Refugee Arrivals to MN

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MN is becoming more diverse…unevenly

Source: mncompass.org

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Demographic change will shape the future…but not completely determine it

  • These data are sobering IF we continue to

adhere to the policies and institutional arrangements that we have built for our demographic past.

  • Aging trend will bring new opportunities; and a

new license to innovate

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Hans Mattson

  • n

Minnesotans, 1872

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Take aways for Greater MN Cities

  • The state, the U.S., the globe is headed

toward slower- and no-growth scenarios. Greater MN has the opportunity to lead

  • n slow growth done right.
  • From a demographic perspective there is

no single “Greater Minnesota.”

  • As our communities age, diversity and

population growth go hand-in-hand.

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Stay tuned, keep in touch. mn.gov/demography susan.brower@state.mn.us Twitter: @MN_StateData