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Commercial Mortgage Strategies
CMS Mortgage Strategies CRE Debt as Fixed Income Portfolio - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
CMS Commercial CMS Mortgage Strategies CRE Debt as Fixed Income Portfolio Enhancement CMS TacOpps I Targets Higher Expected Yields CMS enhances traditional fixed income portfolios by offering higher expected yields and may provide a
Commercial Mortgage Strategies
Commercial Mortgage Strategies
CMS enhances traditional fixed income portfolios by offering higher expected yields and may provide a diversifying risk profile, with less exposure to corporate credit and greater protection against rising interest rates
3.7 6.4 6.1 3.9 6.2 3.6 5.3 9.5 12-15 IG Bonds HY Bonds Levered Loans CMBS (Senior) CMBS (Junior) REIT Bonds Senior CRE Mezz CRE CMS Strategy
As of 3.22.19. Source: Bloomberg, Cushman & Wakefield. Expected yields are indicative only. It is not possible to invest directly in a benchmark. Please see the appendix for additional benchmark details and for further information on CMS Target Returns. CMS Strategy is net of CMS fees and expenses.
Public Corporate Debt Yields (%) Public Real Estate Debt Yields (%) Private Real Estate Debt Yields (%) Interest Rate Risk Credit Risk Illiquidity
Min Risk Max Risk
Commercial Mortgage Strategies
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Uncertain interest rates and tight credit spreads pose a challenge for fixed income investors. CMS TacOpps I expects to focus on floating rate and short-term loans with high current income that can help mitigate these risks
As of 3.21.19. Source: Federal Reserve.
Protections Mitigate Rate Risk or Wider Spreads
predominately monthly resets and effectively zero duration, help protect against interest rate risk
maturing loans to be reinvested into new loans that offer wider spreads, if credit markets weaken
can be invested into new loans with higher rates or wider credit spreads, if credit markets weaken
properties expected to improve, as assets approach stabilization. Less reliant on credit spread “beta” IG Credit Spread (%) 10 Year UST (%) Significant Interest Rate Uncertainty and Historically Low Credit Spreads 2.54 1.25 6.56 6.98
Commercial Mortgage Strategies
Partner Bank Term Financing (“A-Note”) 0-50% LTV Senior Mortgage CMS TacOpps I Investment (“B-Note”) 50-65% LTV Mezzanine 65-80% LTV Equity 80-100% LTV
CMS TacOpps I seeks to invest in B-Notes and other credit instruments with comparable leverage. These loans provide capital preservation via a priority claim on the underlying property, ahead of the borrower’s equity and other subordinated debt
Hypothetical investment structure for illustrative purposes only. Actual CMS TacOpps I investments may differ.
CMS TacOpps I focuses on investments backed by real estate in gateway markets. Loan covenants and borrower recourse provide additional protection
CMS Investments Summary
be backed by underlying land or buildings
investments with similar LTVs
property’s senior mortgage, financed with term bank debt
bank, would be junior to CMS Primary Focus on Gateway Markets
NY, SF, LA, Chicago, D.C. and Boston
help mitigate risk
invest in other major U.S. cities Additional Protections
protect against downside risk
borrower for specific events, key funding milestones and debt service reserve requirements
Commercial Mortgage Strategies
Senior CRE Debt Correlations Return Contribution from Current Income
The private real estate debt markets have historically performed well. The asset class has historically offered an attractive risk- reward profile, with returns driven by current income and low or moderate correlations to traditional asset classes
Private Real Estate Debt has Provided Strong Returns with Limited Volatility
Example for illustrative purposes. CMS TacOpps I investments may differ. Past performance not indicative of future results. Source: Bloomberg, Giliberto-Levy, NCREIF. Latest available data. Returns and correlations from 1998-2017. Income share from 1978-2016. Senior CRE debt returns represented by the Giliberto-Levy Index referencing a portfolio of senior commercial real estate mortgages.
4.6 5.8 6.7 7.2 6.1 4.9 5.0 9.9 16.4 4.1 Gov Bonds IG Bonds HY Bonds Equity Senior CRE Debt Return / Risk 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 1.5 Annualized Returns (%) Annualized Volatility (%) Gov Bonds IG Bonds 0.4 0.5 HY Bonds Equities 0.1
Bonds
95% 100% Stocks CRE Equity 24% 80%
Commercial Mortgage Strategies
Senior CRE debt has only experienced 2 calendar years of negative total returns during the past 45 years
Senior CRE Mortgage Calendar Year Total and Income Returns
Example for illustrative purposes. Past performance not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest in an index. Please see the appendix for additional benchmark details. As of 10.1.18. Source: Bloomberg, Giliberto-Levy. Returns Senior CRE debt returns represented by the Giliberto-Levy Index referencing a portfolio of senior commercial real estate mortgages. (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Income Returns (%) Total Returns (%) NBER Recessions
Commercial Mortgage Strategies
Adding CRE debt (represented by the Preqin CRE Debt index) has historically benefited investment grade fixed income portfolios (represented by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate index) with higher returns and a more diversified risk profile
Example for illustrative purposes. CRE Debt Index returns are net of any fund fees. CMS TacOpps I fees and investments may differ. Past performance not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest in an index. Please see the appendix for additional benchmark details. As of 12.31.18. Source: Bloomberg, Preqin. Quarterly data from 2007-2018. Constructed using the Barclays U.S. Aggregate and Preqin CRE Debt indices with quarterly rebalancing.
3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
0% Allocation to Private CRE Debt (100% IG Fixed Income) 50% Allocation to Private CRE Debt (50% IG Fixed Income) 10% 20% 30% Potential Benefit of Diversification and Enhanced Yield from Private CRE Debt Allocations 40% Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Annualized Return (%) Historical Returns and Volatility of IG Portfolios with Varying Allocations to CRE Debt
Combining private CRE debt funds with fixed income portfolios has historically offered attractive risk-adjusted returns
Portfolio Construction Process
portfolio represented by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate index
Preqin CRE Debt index
performance of a basket of private CRE debt funds
constructed using various allocations to CRE debt, ranging from 0% to 50%
quarterly portfolio rebalancing
through 2018 includes the impact
Commercial Mortgage Strategies
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