CLOs in the Heartland
April 26, 2016
CLOs in the Heartland April 26, 2016 Opening Remarks Jill Zelter, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
CLOs in the Heartland April 26, 2016 Opening Remarks Jill Zelter, Managing Director, Fitch Ratings State of the Capital Markets: First Quarter 2016 Review and Second Quarter 2016 Outlook April 26, 2016 Randy Schwimmer Senior Managing
April 26, 2016
Randy Schwimmer
Senior Managing Director Head of Origination & Capital Markets Churchill Asset Management T (212) 478-9203 M (646) 584-1362 randy.schwimmer@churchillam.com
April 26, 2016
inflation; China, commodities, and energy take back seat
flat to last quarter, but off sharply from $91.6B for 1Q 2015
Volatility eases as market conditions stabilize
quarterly performance since 2011; retail loan funds broke a 32-week streak of
near-standstill of $7.1B (vs $25.3 for 1Q 2015)
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Sources: S&P Capital IQ, Thomson Reuters LPC
price multiples close to record highs
highly leveraged transactions
What’s the setting for debt and equity INVESTORS? highly leveraged transactions
have swung back to higher risk alternatives
unitranche and senior stretch taking larger structure shares
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credits still struggling amid constrained market liquidity
alternative to syndication for increasingly bigger deals (“cargo pants” strategy”)
How about debt and equity ISSUERS?
financings providing certainty of execution
structures all continue to be issuer-friendly
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CLOs remain a significant share of the institutional market
2.3% 6.8% 11.0% 21.1%
Institutional investor market share
CLOs in the Heartland 7 58.8%
Finance Co. Insurance Co. Hedge, Distressed & High-Yield Funds Loan Mutual Funds CLO
Institutional investor market share Source: S&P LCD, Capital IQ
With deal flow down, banks’ share of loans has rebounded
70% 80% 90% 100%
Primary market for highly leveraged loans (banks vs. non-banks)
CLOs in the Heartland 8 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q16
Institutional investors and finance companies Banks & securities firms Institutional investor market share Source: Wells Fargo, S&P LCD Capital IQ
Correlation between asset classes has grown since the credit crisis
70% 80% 90% 100%
Loans vs High Yield Loans vs Equity
Correlation between asset classes
CLOs in the Heartland 9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Shows cumulative correlation between indicated asset classes Source: LSTA, S&P LCD
PE fundraising remains healthy, as expected…
61 74 69 63 66 92 77 90 105 05 89 77 71 75 71 81 70 71 80 100 120
$50 $60 $70 $80 $90
CLOs in the Heartland 10 $36 $34 $25 $20 $35 $36 $27 $36 $37 $82 $35 $77 $54 $60 $41 $59 $46 $36 $45 $65 $57 61 52 45 63 49 61 66 20 40 60
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Capital Rais ised ($B) # of Fund unds Clos
Source: PitchBook; data for North America
…while deal flow declines for third consecutive quarter
813 13 760 60 745 45 829 857 57 785 85 767 67 1,117 814 763 63 908 985 85 1,070 956 56 1,0671,060 1,02 028 1,03 030 1,02 024 957 800 1,000 1,200
$150 $200 $250
CLOs in the Heartland 11 $108 $113 $101 $126 $93 $99 $104 $194 $106 $125 $149 $183 $159 $162 $172 $174 $160 $155 $198 $147 $141 745 45 695 200 400 600
$0 $50 $100 $150 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Capital Inve vested ($B) # of Deal als Source: PitchBook; data for North America
Sense of market stability causes investors to reverse out-flows
0.51 0.39 0.25 0.17
$0B $1B $2B
Prime-fund flows (weekly reports only)
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Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016
Source: S&P/LCD
New CLO formation building slowly; lowest volume in four years
13.39 16.24 12.74
$14B $16B $18B
Monthly CLO Volume
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11.30 7.73 11.16 11.29 8.26 5.15 9.38 10.18 5.66 7.35 6.02 5.57 7.33 4.81 7.46 0.83 2.07 4.20
$0B $2B $4B $6B $8B $10B $12B Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016
Source: S&P/LCD
Financing activity with sponsors slumps amid uncertainty
20.0 25.0 30.0
($B.) Sponsored Sponsored Middle Market Volume
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0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
1Q00 4Q00 3Q01 2Q02 1Q03 4Q03 3Q04 2Q05 1Q06 4Q06 3Q07 2Q08 1Q09 4Q09 3Q10 2Q11 1Q12 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14 1Q15 4Q15
Issuance ($B
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
LBO leverage is down, thanks to Leveraged Lending Guidance
6.0x 6.5x 7.0x 7.5x EBITDA (x) Institutional MM Large Corp. 40% 45% 50% 55% ibutions Institutional MM Large Corp.
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Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
3.0x 3.5x 4.0x 4.5x 5.0x 5.5x 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q16 LBO Debt to EB 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q16 Equity Contribu
Supply/demand dynamics continue favoring investors
6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 (3 years) ws ($B)
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Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
0.0 2.0 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Single B-yields (3 Loan fund flows
Loan fund flows Single- B loan yields
Better credits get better pricing; liquidity challenged regardless
5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%
BB B
New-issue yield to maturity for leveraged loans
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Source: S&P LCD
2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Middle market illiquidity premium remains around 75 bps
L+500 L+600 L+700
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Source: S&P LCD; institutional spreads, sponsored transactions; LC = >$50mm ebitda, MM = <$50mm ebitda
L+0 L+100 L+200 L+300 L+400
Large Cap Middle Market
Middle market leveraged loan yields up fourth straight quarter
7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12%
3-year)
LIB/LIB Floor LIB Spread Spread due to OID CLOs in the Heartland 19
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC; all-in middle market institutional yields (3 year)
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 2008 1Q-3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
All-in-yield (3
Structural terms remain seller-friendly, despite lower volume
US Covenant-Lite Loans (by purpose)
50.0 60.0 70.0 $Bils.) M&A/LBO
Refi & All
$200B $225B $250B $275B 70% 80% 90% 100%
Volume Percent
US Covenant-Lite Loans
CLOs in the Heartland 20 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16
Cov-lite volume ($B Refi & All Other
$0B $25B $50B $75B $100B $125B $150B $175B 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 1Q15 1Q16
Source: S&P LCD & Thomson Reuters LPC
Energy and commodities push default rate to five-year high
6% 7% 8% 9%
Lagging 12-mo leveraged loan default rate by number Composition of defaults (LTM thru March 2016)
Metals & Mining Oil & Gas CLOs in the Heartland 21
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Dec 2002 Dec 2003 Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Retailers (exc Food & Drug) Electronics/Electric Services & Leasing Forest Products Healthcare
Source: S&P LCD
Supply/demand balance creating “Goldilocks” effect
needle likely to swing further sell-side later in second quarter
increased direct lender demand balanced by weak CLO and bank appetite
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increased direct lender demand balanced by weak CLO and bank appetite
firms; smaller managers merging or bulking up with JV’s and partnerships
senior/5.5-6.0x total for larger mid caps; >4.5x senior/6.0x total for BSL
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Partner 312.701.7366
jforrester@mayerbrown.com
April 26, 2016
Sagi Tamir
Partner 212.506.2583
stamir@mayerbrown.com
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all other deals beginning December 24, 2016
5% of fair value as of the closing date of all “ABS Interests” in the transaction
– Eligible vertical interest
– A single vertical security or – An interest in each class of ABS Interests issued as part of the securitization transaction
– Eligible horizontal residual interest (or reserve account) or – Any combination of the above – Special rules for specific types of deals
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– Collateral Manager is “sponsor” and required to retain – Lead Arranger exemption is not practical – Issue is therefore how to optimally capitalize retention – 4 possible basic approaches:
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– Not originate-to-distribute – CLO manager acts as agent for CLO – Collateral acquired in secondary transactions
– LSTA sued in November 2014 in DC Court of Appeals claiming that:
slice equal to 5% of the fair value
commenters
– Hearing on February 5 (audio: https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/recordings/recordings.nsf/)
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– Builds on LSTA comment letter to CRR re-proposal – Passed (as H.R.4166) with bipartisan support out of HFSC in February 2016 – Requires:
CLOs in the Heartland 32
(e.g., its parent) to finance its purchase of risk retention securities and continues to provide management services to CLO
party investors through CLO Manager-created CMV to finance its purchase
manager, CMV is the primary asset manager. CMV then hires CLO Manager manager, CMV is the primary asset manager. CMV then hires CLO Manager as sub-advisor. Key accounting consideration is making sure CMV is NOT consolidated by CLO Manager
party investors through CLO Manager-created MOA to finance the purchase
MUST BE consolidated by the CLO Manager
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CMV 3rd Party CLO Manager 3rd Party Investor(s)
Economic interest Economic interest Sub-advisory
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CLO CMV (Sponsor) 3 Party Investor(s)
Asset management agreement Risk retention interest Economic interest Sub-advisory agreement
CLO Manager 3rd Party Investor(s)
Controlling financial interest Economic interest
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CLO MOA (Sponsor) 3rd Party Investor(s)
Risk retention interest Economic interest Asset management agreement
MOA 3rd Party CLO Manager 3
rd Party
Investor (s)
Economic interest Economic interest Sub-advisory
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CLO MOA (Sponsor ) 3 Party Investor (s)
Asset management agreement Risk retention interest Economic interest Sub-advisory agreement
– Fair value determination is not required for vertical risk retention or the seller’s interest option for revolving pool securitizations securitizations – Fair value required to be determined using a fair value measurement framework under U.S. GAAP
37 CLOs in the Heartland
– The fair value of the EHRI that the sponsor expects to retain at closing (expressed as a percentage of the fair value of all ABS interests issued in the securitization and dollar amount) – If the specific prices, sizes or rates of interest of each tranche of – If the specific prices, sizes or rates of interest of each tranche of ABS are not known, the sponsor may disclose a range of expected fair values based on a range of bona fide estimates or specified prices, sizes or rates of interest
method by which it determined any range of prices, tranche sizes
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– Discount rates and the basis of forward interest rates used – Loss given default; default rates and lag time between loss and – Loss given default; default rates and lag time between loss and recovery – Prepayment rates – If description includes a curve(s), a description of the methodology used to derive the curve(s) – Summary description of reference data set or other historical information used to develop key inputs and assumptions
39 CLOs in the Heartland
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– A valuation technique that uses prices and other relevant information generated by market transactions involving identical or comparable (that is, similar) assets, liabilities, or a group of assets and liabilities, such as a business.
– A valuation technique that reflects the amount that would be required – A valuation technique that reflects the amount that would be required currently to replace the service capacity of an asset (often referred to as current replacement cost).
– Valuation techniques that convert future amounts (for example, cash flows or income and expenses) to a single current (that is, discounted)
value indicated by current market expectations about those future amounts.
43 CLOs in the Heartland
– Quoted prices (unadjusted) in active markets for identical assets or liabilities that the reporting entity can access at the measurement date.
– Inputs other than quoted prices included within Level 1 that are – Inputs other than quoted prices included within Level 1 that are
– Level 3 inputs are unobservable inputs for the asset or liability.
44 CLOs in the Heartland
– There are several sections of the risk retention rules that reference generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The two most significant references are:
“…an entity (other than the issuing entity) that, directly or indirectly, majority controls, is majority controlled by or is under common majority control with, such person. For purposes of this definition, majority control means ownership of more than 50 percent of the equity of an entity, or
determined under GAAP.”
determined by reference to “a fair value measurement framework under GAAP”.
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– To make a determination that a structure is compliant with the risk retention rules, a manager may wish to engage accountants to provide advice on GAAP. – Lawyers may also be engaged to issue an opinion on whether the securitization structure complies with the risk retention rules. To issue securitization structure complies with the risk retention rules. To issue such an opinion, they may need a certain level of comfort from accountants on those aspects of the rules that reference GAAP.
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– Engaging a third party accountant:
engaging a third party accountant is an option. – In these cases, a third party accounting firm may be engaged to issue a “report on the application of accounting principles,” which analyzes whether a controlling financial interest is owned by the manager.
by the engagement partner described above; this may also prompt engaging a third party accountant.
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– Difficult to make a determination as to how the highest court in a jurisdiction would interpret the rules
remain
– Analysis relies on facts and, in some cases judgments on GAAP (fair value and controlling financial interests)
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– “no violation of law” opinion not appropriate to give, even a reasoned opinion – negative assurance re disclosures should be appropriate and feasible
disclosures contain any untrue statement of a material fact or omit to state a material fact necessary in order to make the statements , in light of the circumstances in which they were made, not misleading circumstances in which they were made, not misleading
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