Climate Change, Biodiversity and Economic Development Kei Kabaya - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change, Biodiversity and Economic Development Kei Kabaya Economy and Environment Group Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

Structure  Introduction  Climate change, biodiversity and economy  Preventive measures for climate change  Economic mechanisms for sustainable future  Summary 2

What is the IGES? Research institute that conducts pragmatic and innovative strategic policy research to support sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific region What do we research?  Climate change  Economy and environment  Market mechanism (CDM)  Business and environment  Adaptation  Governance and capacity  Forest conservation  Sustainable consumption  Freshwater resources and production 3

Links between climate change, biodiversity and economy Carbon Climate GHGs emission Change sequestration Temperature Disaster Rainfall Sea level rise Economy Biodiversity Destruction & & Livelihood Ecosystems Ecosystem services 4

Links between climate change and economy Climate Change Economy & Livelihood 5

Damages from intensified weather The intensified monsoon due to rise in sea temperature has triggered… Heat wave and forest fire in Russia Loss of 20% of grain harvests caused increase in grain price by 19% and ban on grain exports until the end of year The deadliest flooding in Pakistan 20M people have been affected including >2000 people dead and 3.5M children in danger of infectious disease 6

Predicted change in natural geography Rise in atmospheric temperature at high elevation and high latitude may cause… Glacier retreat in Himalaya Retreat at the rate of 10-60m/yr is expanding number and size in lakes, outburst of which may cause catastrophic events Sea level rise in Bangladesh Rise in sea level by 1m may submerge 17,000km2 of coastal land area and affect 15M people in the country 7

Links between climate change and biodiversity Climate Change Biodiversity & Ecosystems 8

Impacts on terrestrial ecosystem & species The vegetation and animals vulnerable to climate change will direct to… Desertification in Mongolia Grassland is thinning out in 3/4 of the country, while 7% has already become part of the Gobi desert Extinction of species in Costa Rica More than 10 amphibian species, incl. the golden toad having inhabited in the cool mountains, may have gone extinct 9

Impacts on marine ecosystem & species Warmer marine water from the tropics to the polar zone will accelerate… Coral reef degradation in SE Asia The Coral Triangle, 45% of reefs under threat, will be gone unless sea temperature is stabilized at the moderate level Penguins decline in Antarctica Less krill supply will endanger penguin species, incl. the emperor penguin, which has reduced its population by 50% 10

Links between biodiversity and economy Economy Biodiversity & & Livelihood Ecosystems 11

Ecosystem for human livelihoods The goods and services derived from ecosystems based on biodiversity include… • Crops • Climatic and • Spiritual and hydrological religious value • Fish regulation • Scenic beauty • Timber • Soil retention • Sense of place • Fuelwood • Water purification • Recreation and • Medicine • Disaster ecotourism • Freshwater mitigation Provisioning Regulating Cultural services services services 12

Economic value of ecosystem services The economic value of those ecosystem services may reach to… 33 trillion US dollars per year Costanza et al. (1997) conducted meta-analysis for economic valuation of ES, concluding that ecosystems provide us humans with goods and services equivalent to 33 trillion dollars per year (value in 1994). converted into the value in 2009… 47.8 14.3T USD (GDP in the US) trillion USD 13

Urgent to prevent climate change But it may be difficult to halt under the current fashion of economic development… Case: energy demand in India Factor India 2005 India 2030 Japan 2005 GDP p.c. (US$) 740 35,627 Population (Million) 1,095 1,470 127.7 Energy demand p.c. (toe) 0.46 0.95 2.77 GHGs emission p.c. (Mt-CO2) 1.30 2.1 10.0 Data comes from McKinsey&Company (2009) and WDI 14

Urgent to prevent climate change Even under the harsh situation, we can take some preventive measures such as:  Biofuel production  Tree plantation But these measures are not necessarily the panacea… 15

Biofuels Production Positive aspects Negative aspects  Carbon neutral  Additional GHGs emission  Employment generation  Conflicts on land use  Energy security  Decline in biodiversity Actual cases  GHGs emission from palm oil biodiesel may exceed that from fossil fuel by > 800% due to deforestation in Indonesia  Rise in global food price in ‘08, 30~75% of which attributed to diversion of grain to biofuel, created > 100M absolute poor 16

Tree Plantation Positive aspects Negative aspects  Carbon sequestration  Decline in biodiversity  Desertification prevention  Ecosystem instability Actual cases  Eucalyptus plantation, intensively conducted by Japanese paper companies, may deteriorate local biodiversity in Brazil  Single species forest in Australia exacerbated the forest fire in 2009, which has killed >200 people 17

Economic mechanisms towards more sustainable future Carbon credit Earn credits from Require credits for reduction or less surplus or more emission emission Carbon credit (t-CO2) A B . Money ($) Emission quota Emission quota (t-CO2) (t-CO2) 18

Economic mechanisms towards more sustainable future Innovative financial mechanisms contributing to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and economy & livelihoods based on the carbon credit scheme  PES (Payment for Ecosystem Services)  REDD+ (Reduction Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation-plus) 19

PES scheme Definition: Voluntary and contingent transactions between at least one seller and one buyer over a well-defined ecosystem services, or a land use likely to secure that service Achievements: Not only biodiversity conservation and carbon storage, but also income generation, land tenure clarification and employment opportunities to the local residents could be encouraged through financial mechanism 20

PES in Costa Rica Payment by Contribution recipient National Forestry Agency Carbon GEF Carbon sequestration Credit Hydrological regulation Biodiversity conservation Hydro- Fuels Scenic beauty power Tax plant Land owner Plantation Conservation 21

Effectiveness of PES in Costa Rica Emission of 11M tC avoided 1999-2005 Increased Expanded income in forest cover approx. 15% by 50% households by 2005 22

REDD+ scheme Definition: CO2 REDD: Emission REDD: Efforts to create a financial value for the carbon E. E E stored in forests, offering A. E incentives for developing countries to reduce emission t E. S REDD+: Beyond above, forest conservation, sustainable S A. S forest management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks included CO2 REDD+: Sequestration 23

REDD+ in Madagascar National fund manager Intl buyer Government WCS Oversight Carbon Credits REDD+ Project Mngt, Monitoring PA mngt Capacity building Life improvement Community Plantation Conservation 24

Effectiveness of REDD+ in Madagascar Trading of 40K tC ‘04~’06, 910M tC by 2033 28Kha for 401,000ha community designated forest, 50% to PA in of credits 2008 allocated 25

Summary Preventive measures Economic mechanisms 26

Thank you for your attention ! Any questions? IGES: http://www.iges.or.jp/