Climate Change, Biodiversity and Economic Development Kei Kabaya - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change, Biodiversity and Economic Development

Kei Kabaya Economy and Environment Group Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

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 Introduction  Climate change, biodiversity and economy  Preventive measures for climate change  Economic mechanisms for sustainable future  Summary

Structure

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What is the IGES?

Research institute that conducts pragmatic and innovative strategic policy research to support sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific region

What do we research?

Market mechanism (CDM) Adaptation Forest conservation Freshwater resources Economy and environment Business and environment Governance and capacity Sustainable consumption and production Climate change

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Economy & Livelihood Biodiversity & Ecosystems Climate Change

Ecosystem services

Temperature Rainfall Disaster Sea level rise Links between climate change, biodiversity and economy GHGs emission

Destruction

Carbon sequestration

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Economy & Livelihood Climate Change

Links between climate change and economy

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Heat wave and forest fire in Russia

Loss of 20% of grain harvests caused increase in grain price by 19% and ban on grain exports until the end of year

Damages from intensified weather The deadliest flooding in Pakistan

20M people have been affected including >2000 people dead and 3.5M children in danger of infectious disease

The intensified monsoon due to rise in sea temperature has triggered…

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Predicted change in natural geography Sea level rise in Bangladesh

Rise in sea level by 1m may submerge 17,000km2 of coastal land area and affect 15M people in the country

Rise in atmospheric temperature at high elevation and high latitude may cause… Glacier retreat in Himalaya

Retreat at the rate of 10-60m/yr is expanding number and size in lakes, outburst of which may cause catastrophic events

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Biodiversity & Ecosystems Climate Change

Links between climate change and biodiversity

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Impacts on terrestrial ecosystem & species Extinction of species in Costa Rica

More than 10 amphibian species, incl. the golden toad having inhabited in the cool mountains, may have gone extinct

The vegetation and animals vulnerable to climate change will direct to… Desertification in Mongolia

Grassland is thinning out in 3/4 of the country, while 7% has already become part of the Gobi desert

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Impacts on marine ecosystem & species Penguins decline in Antarctica

Less krill supply will endanger penguin species, incl. the emperor penguin, which has reduced its population by 50%

Warmer marine water from the tropics to the polar zone will accelerate… Coral reef degradation in SE Asia

The Coral Triangle, 45% of reefs under threat, will be gone unless sea temperature is stabilized at the moderate level

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Economy & Livelihood Biodiversity & Ecosystems

Links between biodiversity and economy

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Ecosystem for human livelihoods The goods and services derived from ecosystems based on biodiversity include…

• Crops
• Fish
• Timber
• Fuelwood
• Medicine
• Freshwater

Provisioning services

• Climatic and

hydrological regulation

• Soil retention
• Water purification
• Disaster

mitigation

Regulating services

• Spiritual and

religious value

• Scenic beauty
• Sense of place
• Recreation and

ecotourism

Cultural services

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Economic value of ecosystem services The economic value of those ecosystem services may reach to… 33 trillion US dollars per year

Costanza et al. (1997) conducted meta-analysis for economic valuation of ES, concluding that ecosystems provide us humans with goods and services equivalent to 33 trillion dollars per year (value in 1994). converted into the value in 2009…

47.8 trillion USD

14.3T USD (GDP in the US)

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Urgent to prevent climate change

But it may be difficult to halt under the current fashion of economic development… Case: energy demand in India

Factor India 2005 India 2030 Japan 2005 GDP p.c. (US$) 740 35,627 Population (Million) 1,095 1,470 127.7 Energy demand p.c. (toe) 0.46 0.95 2.77 GHGs emission p.c. (Mt-CO2) 1.30 2.1 10.0

Data comes from McKinsey&Company (2009) and WDI

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Urgent to prevent climate change

Even under the harsh situation, we can take some preventive measures such as:  Biofuel production But these measures are not necessarily the panacea…  Tree plantation

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Biofuels Production

Carbon neutral Employment generation Energy security Additional GHGs emission Conflicts on land use Decline in biodiversity

Positive aspects Negative aspects

GHGs emission from palm oil biodiesel may exceed that from fossil fuel by >800% due to deforestation in Indonesia Rise in global food price in ‘08, 30~75% of which attributed to diversion of grain to biofuel, created >100M absolute poor

Actual cases

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Tree Plantation

Carbon sequestration Desertification prevention Decline in biodiversity Ecosystem instability

Positive aspects Negative aspects

Eucalyptus plantation, intensively conducted by Japanese paper companies, may deteriorate local biodiversity in Brazil Single species forest in Australia exacerbated the forest fire in 2009, which has killed >200 people

Actual cases

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Carbon credit Economic mechanisms towards more sustainable future

B A

. Emission quota (t-CO2) Emission quota (t-CO2) Earn credits from reduction or less emission Require credits for surplus or more emission Carbon credit (t-CO2) Money ($)

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Innovative financial mechanisms contributing to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and economy & livelihoods based on the carbon credit scheme

 PES

(Payment for Ecosystem Services)

 REDD+

(Reduction Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation-plus)

Economic mechanisms towards more sustainable future

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PES scheme

Definition:

Voluntary and contingent transactions between at least

• ne seller and one buyer over a well-defined ecosystem

services, or a land use likely to secure that service

Achievements:

Not only biodiversity conservation and carbon storage, but also income generation, land tenure clarification and employment opportunities to the local residents could be encouraged through financial mechanism

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PES in Costa Rica

Land owner

Plantation Conservation Carbon sequestration Hydrological regulation Biodiversity conservation Scenic beauty

National Forestry Agency

GEF Hydro- power plant Carbon Credit Fuels Tax Contribution Payment by recipient

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Increased income in

• approx. 15%

households Expanded forest cover by 50% by 2005 Emission of 11M tC avoided 1999-2005

Effectiveness of PES in Costa Rica

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REDD+ scheme

Definition:

REDD: Efforts to create a financial value for the carbon stored in forests,

• ffering

incentives for developing countries to reduce emission REDD+: Beyond above, forest conservation, sustainable forest management and enhancement

• f

forest carbon stocks included

• A. S
• A. E
• E. E
• E. S

E S REDD: Emission REDD+: Sequestration t CO2 CO2

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REDD+ in Madagascar

Community

Plantation Conservation

Government WCS

REDD+ Project Mngt, Monitoring Capacity building Life improvement Carbon Credits Intl buyer National fund manager Oversight

PA mngt

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28Kha for community forest, 50%

• f credits

allocated 401,000ha designated to PA in 2008 Trading of 40K tC ‘04~’06, 910M tC by 2033

Effectiveness of REDD+ in Madagascar

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Summary

Economic mechanisms Preventive measures

Thank you for your attention ! Any questions?

IGES: http://www.iges.or.jp/