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Climate Change and Water Management Climate Change and Water Management The Renaissance of Systems Approach The Renaissance of Systems Approach Slobodan P. Simonovic Slobodan P. Simonovic Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental

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Climate Change and Water Management Climate Change and Water Management

The Renaissance of Systems Approach The Renaissance of Systems Approach Slobodan P. Simonovic Slobodan P. Simonovic

Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Director Engineering Studies, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction The University of Western Ontario

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Main messages Main messages

  • It is all about feedbacks!
  • Climate change is real and more serious than expected
  • Temperature
  • Concentration of GHG
  • See ice and glaciers
  • See level rise
  • Climate change is hydrologic change
  • Water management – what are we trying to manage?
  • Systems approach – examples
  • Integrated system modeling of the social-economic-climatic system
  • Modeling impacts of climate change on management of water resources on

local scale

  • It is all about feedbacks!

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Slobodan P. Simonovic 3 CSCE National Lecture Tour 2010

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Feedback Feedback

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Pollution Time

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  • Climate change

Climate change

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is

now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level”

“Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and

N2O have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre- industrial values”

IPCC (2007)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Hansen et al, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., (2006)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

  • Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-induced

warming

  • Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19°C per

decade.

  • Very good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas

increases.

  • Over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the

trend continues to be one of warming.

  • Natural, short-term fluctuations are occurring as usual, but

there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend (~ 0.60C).

Copenhagen Diagnosis (2009)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Rahmstorf et al, Science, (2007)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Le Quere et al, Nature Geosciences (2009)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

  • Greenhouse gas emissions are surging
  • Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40%

higher than those in 1990.

  • Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels,

just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with zero emissions after 2030.

  • Every year of delayed action increases the chances of exceeding

2°C warming.

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Copenhagen Diagnosis (2009)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Stoeve et al, Geophysical Research Letters, (2007)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base - Greenland

Roger Braithwaite, University

  • f Manchester (UK)
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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Steig et al, Nature, (2009)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Photograph: Erwin Schneider/Alton Byers/The Mountain Institute

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

  • Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline
  • Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the

expectations of climate models.

  • The area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the

average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

  • Ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps are showing accelerated

melting

  • The surface area of the Greenland ice sheet which experiences summer

melt has increased by 30% since 1979.

  • Antarctica is also losing ice mass at increasing rate. Ice shelves

(connections between continental ice sheets and the ocean) are destabilized (7 collapses in last 20 years)

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Copenhagen Diagnosis (2009)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Copenhagen Diagnosis (2009)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

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Church and White , Geophysical Research Letters, (2006) Cazenave et al, Global and Planetary Change, (2009)

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Climate change Climate change – – we know we know

“Overall, these observational data

underscore the concerns about global climate change. Previous projections, as summarized by IPCC, have not exaggerated but may in some respects even have underestimated the change, in particular for sea level.”

Rahmstorf et al, Science, (2007)

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Feedbacks Feedbacks

Interaction between socio-economic and

natural systems causes climate change

Interaction determines the entire

system’s evolution

Climate Change Social Adaptation

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Feedbacks Feedbacks

Strong positive feedbacks (amplification of the

surface temperature response)

  • Higher temperature – Warmer oceans - Increase in evaporation -

Water vapor increase (amount is function of temperature) – Temperature increase

  • Higher temperature – Snow and ice melt – Larger absorption of

sunlight - Temperature increase

  • Higher ocean temperature – less algae – more heating

Big and dangerous feedbacks (unstoppable if the

temperature goes 2 – 3oC up)

  • Higher temperature – Higher release of methane from the Arctic

and the oceans – Higher temperature

  • Movement of climate zones – Change in vegetation distribution –

Change of species distribution – Climate zone change

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Feedbacks Feedbacks

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Polovina, Geophysical Research Letters, (2008)

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Feedbacks Feedbacks

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1900 1950 2000 1850 1800

Mahon, (2009)

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Climate change Climate change – – we don we don’ ’t know t know

The speed at which the global average

temperature will rise with change of CO2 concentration (non-linear relationship).

What is the tipping point for making

dangerous feedbacks unstoppable.

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  • Water resources management

Water resources management

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What are we trying to manage? What are we trying to manage?

Traditional view

We keep trying to manage environments (water,

land, air, etc).

We keep trying to manage people within

environments.

It seems that every time we push at

  • ne point, it causes unexpected change

elsewhere – first fundamental systems principle.

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What are we trying to manage? What are we trying to manage?

The system in our focus is a social

  • system. It describes the way water

resources are used by people.

The system exhibits a high level of

complexity.

It includes all sources of

uncertainty: variability and ambiguity.

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New thinking New thinking – – A systems view A systems view

Water resources

management integrates four subsystems: individual, organization, society and environment.

Resource and information

flows link the individual,

  • rganization, society and

environment subsystems.

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Stockholm Water Front, No.1, May 2009, page 12

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New thinking New thinking – – A systems view A systems view

  • Information is used to determine resource

use by subsystems.

  • Values provide meaning to information

flows.

  • The ongoing need of subsystems for

resources from one another sets the limits

  • f their exploitation of one another and of

the environment, and determines the system behavior.

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The systems approach The systems approach

The systems approach establishes the proper order

  • f inquiry and helps in the selection of the best

course of action that will accomplish a prescribed goal:

by broadening the information base of the decision-

maker;

by providing a better understanding of the system,

and the interrelatedness of its component subsystems; and

by facilitating the prediction of the consequences of

several alternative courses of action.

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The systems approach The systems approach

System analysis tools

Simulation Optimization Multi-objective analysis

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  • Example 1

Example 1

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An Integrated System Dynamics Model of the Social-Economic-Climatic System NSERC Strategic Research Grant

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ANEMI ANEMI

35 Slobodan P. Simonovic

+

Climate Climate

Clearing and Burning Land Use Emissions

+

Carbon Carbon

+ +

Land Use Land Use

+

Temperature Atmospheric CO2 Water Stress Surface Water Availability Water Consumption

Population Population Economy Economy Surface Flow Surface Flow

Temperature Consumption and Labour

+ +

GDP per capita

+

Water Quality Water Quality Water Demand Water Demand

Wastewater Treatment Wastewater Reuse Wastewater Treatment and Reuse

−

−

+ +

Energy Energy

+ + + − −

Water use Intensity Industrial emission Energy Demand Intensity

  • Number of Model

Elements:

  • 740 variables
  • 230 Stocks (many in

arrays)

  • 2300 total
  • 600 equations
  • 99 major equations
  • Thousands of feedbacks
  • Population: 4468 loops
  • Water stress: 2756 loops
  • Economic output: 203

loops

  • Industrial emissions: 47

loops

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ANEMI ANEMI

Biomass Litter Humus Stable Humus and Charcoal CO2 in Atmosphere NPP Litterfall Decay to Humus Decay from Litter Decay from Humus Carbonization Humification Decay from Charcoal <Pjk> <Tao(Bjk)> <Lambda j> <Tao(Lj)> <Phi j> <Tao(Hj)> <Tao(Kj)> <Sigma (NPPj)> Unburnt Wood Biomass to Charcoal Litter to Charcoal Burnt Biomass Burnt Litter <Biomass to Atm> <Burnt Biomass to Charcoal> <Dead biomass to Humus> <Litter to Atm> <Litter Burnt into Charcoal> Internal Humus Flows <Internal Humus Flows Calculation> Internal Charcoal Flows <Internal Charcoal Flows Calculation> Cumulative Emissions Fossil Fuel Burning Turn On Human Land Use Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Biome Area CO2 Emissions <Current Biome Area> <Init Biome Area> <Litter Q10> <Humus Q10> <Charcoal Q10> Industrial Carbon Emissions E(t) Turn On Human Emissions

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ANEMI ANEMI

Atmosphere Biomass Net Primary Productivity Root Decay

( ) dt

F E B B NPP D D D D A

O L B K H L B

⋅ − + + + − + + + = ∫

( )

∫

⋅ − − − − − = dt UB B FK FH FL NPP B

jk jk B jk B jk B jk B jk jk

15

10 1 ) ( × ⋅ ⋅ =

j j jk jk

SA NPP p NPP σ

( ) ( )

ln 1 ) ( ) ( A A NPP NPP

j j

β σ σ + × = ) (

4 4 4 j j j B

B B FH τ =

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Irrigation Expansion

Individual Simulation

Effects of increased irrigation on system

Approach: Compare experiment against

base case results

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Irrigated Area

584.10 M 473.57 M 363.05 M 252.52 M 142 M 1960 1974 1988 2002 2016 2030 2044 2058 2072 2086 2100 Tim e (Year) Irrigated Area : Base ha Irrigated Area : Irrigation ha

More irrigation - more area for food production

Desired Agricultural Water Withdrawal

3,948 3,333 2,718 2,104 1,489 1960 1974 1988 2002 2016 2030 2044 2058 2072 2086 2100 Time (Year) Desired Agricultural Water Withdrawal : Base km*km*km/Year Desired Agricultural Water Withdrawal : Irrigation km*km*km/Year

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Withdrawals to Availability ratio incl. Pollution Effects

0.7299 0.6433 0.5566 0.4699 0.3832 1960 1974 1988 2002 2016 2030 2044 2058 2072 2086 2100 Time (Year) "Withdrawals to Availability ratio incl. Pollution Effects" : Base Dimensionless "Withdrawals to Availability ratio incl. Pollution Effects" : Irrigation Dimensionless

Population

11.73 B 9.554 B 7.376 B 5.198 B 3.02 B 1960 1974 1988 2002 2016 2030 2044 2058 2072 2086 2100 Time (Year) Population : Base person Population : Irrigation person

More irrigation - more pollution More pollution - lower population FEEDBACK –> MORE FOOD – LOWER POPULATION

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  • Example 2

Example 2

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Understanding the impacts of climate change on management of water resources on local scale Two projects - Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Three projects – City of London

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42

Upper Thames River Basin Upper Thames River Basin

42 Slobodan P. Simonovic CSCE National Lecture Tour 2010

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Upper Thames River Basin Upper Thames River Basin

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Upper Thames River Basin Upper Thames River Basin

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Upper Thames River Basin Upper Thames River Basin

47 47 Slobodan P. Simonovic CSCE National Lecture Tour 2010

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Feedbacks Feedbacks

5

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What can we do? What can we do?

Do not forget – It is all about feedbacks!

Be aware of positive feedbacks. Learn what are the tipping points of

dangerous feedbacks.

Find out what are the tipping points that

will make our politicians do something.

It is not about the planet – it is about us!

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Resources

Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the World on the

Latest Climate Science (2009) http://copenhagendiagnosis.com

Hansen J. (2009) “Storms of my grandchildren”,

Bloomsbury, http://www.columbia.edu/~ jeh1/

www.slobodansimonovic.com

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