Climate Change and Hydropower in Africa Impacts , Mitigation and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Change and Hydropower in Africa Impacts , Mitigation and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 20, 2023 456 likes •624 views

Climate Change and Hydropower in Africa Impacts , Mitigation and Adaptation Yohannes Gebretsadik WIDER Development Conference Helsinki, 15 September 2018 1 Hydropower resource in Africa Operating 35,000 MW Under construction 17,000 MW

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Climate Change and Hydropower in Africa

Impacts , Mitigation and Adaptation

Yohannes Gebretsadik WIDER Development Conference Helsinki, 15 September 2018

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Hydropower resource in Africa

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Source: International Hydropower Association | Hydropower Status Report 2018

Operating 35,000 MW Under construction 17,000 MW Planned 77,375 MW Technical Potential 1,800 TWh/year

20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 30000 32000 34000 36000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Installed capacity (MW)

Total Hydropower Capacity Growth

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Hydropower and Climate Change

  • Impacts on precipitation & temperature
  • > Change in hydrology
  • > Change in Hydropower Generation
  • Expected to play an increasing role in climate change adaptation
  • Hydropower :A renewable energy source
  • Climate adaptation services: Offer flood management and drought protection
  • Clean Battery: Energy storage and dynamic capacity to balance grids

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Impact assessment

Water Models

  • Hydrologic model
  • Crop Model
  • Water resources systems model

Hybrid Frequency distribution (HFDs)

(Schlosser et al. 2011)

  • Two emission scenarios
  • Unconstrained emission (UCE)
  • Level 1 Stabilization (L1S)

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Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Zambezi

5 Botswana Malawi Namibia Mozambique Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe

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Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Zambezi

6 Comparison of Energy generation average for the period of 2045-2050s

  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 % Change of Hydropower Genration from the Base case HFD (UCE) Natural Variability Hybrid (UCE)

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  • 15
  • 10
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5 10 15 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 % Change of Hydropower Genration from the Base-case HFD(L1s) Natural Variability Hybrid (L1s)

Unconstrained Emission scenarios no policy action is taken to limit greenhouse Level 1 Stabilization scenario Concentration at 560 ppm CO2

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Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Nile

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Major existing HP Capacity (MW) Aswan Dam 2100 Merowe 1250 Roseires 280 Tana Beles 460 Tekeze 300 Bujagali 250 Nalubaale 380 Under Construction GERD 6000

Change in Runoff across Climate scenarios for main Nile flow at Aswan

Burundi Egypt Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Sudan Uganda

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Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Nile

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Percent change of Hydropower generation from reference case average over the years 2045-2050 for unconstrained emission (UC) and level 1 stabilization (L1S) climate change scenarios.

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Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Congo

9 Hydropower Name Capacity Grand Inga 40,000 MW Inga 3 4800 MW Inga 2 1424 MW Inga 1 351 MW

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Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Congo

10 Comparison of energy generation average for the period of 2045-2050s Unconstrained Emission scenarios no policy action is taken to limit greenhouse Level 1 Stabilization scenario Concentration at 560 ppm CO2

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  • 6
  • 4
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2 4 6 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 % Change in HP generation from base-Case Hybrid L1s HFD L1s Natural Variability

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5 10 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 % Change in HP generation from base-Case Hybrid UCE HFD UCE Natural Variability

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Remarks

Climate Change impact on hydropower generation vary by location

… Change in Energy generation … More risk in extreme values

Adaption

… to mitigate energy shortage … to utilize opportunities

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South Africa – Zambezi: More clean energy hydro-wind integration

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  • High Temporal and Spatial variation of Wind and solar resources
  • Inherently intermittent
  • Non-dispatchable source of Energy
  • Regional Hydropower and Storage facility -> battery
  • Wind Generating Capacity 23,000 MW
  • HP Capacity 9,600 MW
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Firm Generation of Combined Power

20 40 60 80 100 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Percentile Power (MW)

Wind power availability - Raw Green scenario Regulated Generation under Wind-Hydro Operation

P90

Power duration Curve for wind-hydro Operation

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00:00 Jan 01, 10 08:19 Jan 07, 10 16:38 Jan 13, 10 00:58 Jan 20, 10 08:17 Jan 26, 10 16:36 Feb 01, 10 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 x 10

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Generation(MW) Wind power Generation potential Hydro-Wind Generation

Higher Reliability of meeting Power Target ➢ South Africa ➢ HP facilities in Zambezi

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The Case for Regional Power Pools

Regional power interconnection adaption to climate change?

14 East Africa Power Pool Central Africa Power Pool South Africa Power Pool

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Conclusion

▪ No Single direction of impacts for the continent Africa , varies by location ▪ Climate Changes combined with variability, and change in variability ▪ Consider adaptations in the context of risk ▪ Flexible design of infrastructures ▪ Synergy of renewable resources for adaption ▪ Regional interconnection for better resilience

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