Climate change adaptation and wildfire protection in Harrop - - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Climate change adaptation and wildfire protection in Harrop - Procter Public Meeting Harrop Hall June 26, 2019 Erik Leslie Forest Manager Harrop-Procter Community Co-op Climate models: simplified summary Over the next 30 to 50 years:
Public Meeting Harrop Hall June 26, 2019
Erik Leslie Forest Manager Harrop-Procter Community Co-op
Over the next 30 to 50 years:
Fall/ winter/ spring 2 - 5 warmer and 10 - 25% wetter Summers 3 - 7 warmer and up to 30% drier ~5 to 10+ times more average annual area burned Increased frequency and magnitude of extreme
precipitation events
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Relatively consistent community values for 20 years
Protect domestic water Maintain/ enhance biodiversity Create local jobs Community wildfire protection (new priority since
2003)
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1. Risk assessment 2. Operations strategy 3. Management Plan and AAC
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etc
Probability of:
Fire Drought
Consequence to:
Homes Water Biodiversity Timber
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Objective: Prioritize areas for adaptive actions
RISK = Probability X Consequence
High Moderate Low Very_low High Moderate Low Very Low High Moderate Low
Fire Consequence Fire Probability
Fire Risk
Fire probability = likelihood of high severity fire
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High probability Moderate probability Low probability High fuel loads (from LiDAR) Moderate fuel loads Low fuel loads Dry site (per aSMR) Moderate site (per aSMR) Moist site (per aSMR) High percentage dead pine Slopes >50% Slopes 30 – 50% Slopes <30%
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High Moderate Low Very_low High Moderate Low Very Low High Moderate Low
Fire Consequence Fire Probability
Fire Risk
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Average CMD ensemble all decades and scenarios ID2 Scenario Average of CMD ICH xw rcp45 433 ICH xw rcp85 462 ICH dw 1 rcp45 302 ICH dw 1 rcp85 330 ICH mw 4 rcp45 169 ICH mw 4 rcp85 196 ESSFwh 3 rcp45 113 ESSFwh 3 rcp85 136 ESSFwm 4 rcp45 75 ESSFwm 4 rcp85 92 ESSFwm 3 rcp45 69 ESSFwm 3 rcp85 88 ESSFwmw rcp45 50 ESSFwmw rcp85 67 ESSFwmp rcp45 36 ESSFwmp rcp85 51
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 rcp45 rcp85 rcp45 rcp85 rcp45 rcp85 rcp45 rcp85 rcp45 rcp85 rcp45 rcp85 ICH xw ICH dw 1 ICH mw 4 ESSFwh 3 ESSFwm 4 ESSFwm 3
Average CMD ensemble by subzone
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Top priority areas for adaption actions: Homes: Entire WUI (that is not wet or thinned) Timber: All accessible stands on submesic sites Water: Headwaters areas with high fuel loads Biodiversity: Older forests on submesic (mesic) sites Examples of target areas:
dense submesic ICH stands, especially with cedar Any feasible landscape-level fuel break
Reserve design Landscape fire breaks WUI fuel reduction Prescribed fire Residual stand structure Stocking standards Stand tending Species and provenances More adaptation tools?
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Manage for resilience
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60 - 70% of landbase in reserves
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Document operations strategy, develop AAC scenarios Project newsletter #2 summer— send to stakeholders Draft Handbook and Workshop— circulate to advisory
committee
Advisory committee meeting #4: ~October/ November Public meeting in Harrop ~November Practitioners’ workshop ~December
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