Civil Dialogue Group on Pigs 14 April 2015 Prices DG AGRI C3 14 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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civil dialogue group on pigs 14 april 2015 prices
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Civil Dialogue Group on Pigs 14 April 2015 Prices DG AGRI C3 14 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Civil Dialogue Group on Pigs 14 April 2015 Prices DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015 Monthly evolution of the market price for different meats 650 550 Lamb Euro / 100kg Carcase 450 Beef 350 Cows 250 Broiler 150 Pigs 50 I 2006 I 2007 I

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Civil Dialogue Group on Pigs 14 April 2015

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Prices

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015 50 150 250 350 450 550 650

I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I 2012 I 2013 I 2014 I 2015 I

Euro / 100kg Carcase

Monthly evolution of the market price for different meats

Cows O3 bovine R3 Pigs Broiler 65% Slaughterhouse heavy lamb light lamb Beef Cows Broiler Pigs Lamb

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015 120 135 150 165 180

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Evolution of the EU pig carcase prices €/ 100kg

AVG 10 - 14 2014 2015 The prices for 2014 and 2015 in this graph are the weighted average of classes S, E & R

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SLIDE 5

30 35 40 45 50 55

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

€/piece

Evolution of the EU average piglet prices

5 yr avg (10 - 14) 2013 2014 2015

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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SLIDE 6

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

90 110 130 150 170 190 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

EU average pigcarcase price

Euro/ 100kg EU avg pig price period of Aid for Private Storage déstockage

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SLIDE 7

55,0 75,0 95,0 115,0 135,0 155,0 175,0 195,0

| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015

Weekly average Pigprices 2010 - 2014 in Euro/ 100kg carcase EU, Brazil and the US

EU US

  • Braz. avg

CDN Ontario

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat. As from 1.1.2014 42% class E and 58%S. US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb BR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br) CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca) EU 143,26 BR 127,59 US 121,27 CDN 119,97 DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

70 95 120 145 170 195 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |

€uro/ 100kg

Pigprices and forecasts in US and EU

EU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange

EU Class E US

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Production

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

Pig 22.858 22.596 21.416 22.133 22.437 21.990 21.997 22.335 22.462 Poultry 11.838 12.123 12.535 12.945 13.205 13.474 13.718 14.077 14.367 Beef 8.203 8.082 7.720 7.918 7.847 7.531 7.268 7.285 7.350 Sheep 1.024 949 748 717 730 706 713 704 704 Goat 72 78 60 59 59 54 47 46 44 Horse 56 71 75 74 77 83 76 76 76 Total 44.051 43.900 42.554 43.847 44.356 43.847 44.356 43.838 43.819 Change prev. Year 6,4%

  • 0,3%
  • 3,1%

3,0% 1,2%

  • 1,1%

1,2%

  • 1,2%

0,0% Graph based on monthly Cronos official slaughter data. 2012 based on change in GIP forecastProduction of poultry DG AGRI & MSs Experts 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

in 1000 Tonns

EU - Production of meats 2007 - 2015

from 2004 = EU 25 from 2007 = EU 27 from 2013 = EU 28 as from 2009 new slaughter series.

Pig Poultry Beef Sheep Goat Horse

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015 Piglets

  • Y. Pigs

Sows mated Sows 1st time mated sows Pigs 50 - 80kg 2011 39.796,3 33.140,6 12.772,9 8.617,4 1.530,6 26.499,8 2012 39.087,1 32.222,0 12.246,2 8.351,7 1.543,4 26.324,2 2013 39.210,3 31.473,0 12.038,4 8.160,4 1.509,8 26.192,6 2014 40.159,6 32.459,7 12.074,5 8.238,2 1.556,2 26.036,7 13/12 0,3%

  • 2,3%
  • 1,7%
  • 2,3%
  • 2,2%
  • 0,5%

14/13 2,4% 3,1% 0,3% 1,0% 3,1%

  • 0,6%

0,0 5.000,0 10.000,0 15.000,0 20.000,0 25.000,0 30.000,0 35.000,0

Results of the December Pig Survey based on 27 MS communicating (95,7%)

Total number of animals: 141,7 Mio (+1,3%)

  • f which
  • f which
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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2,2%

  • 0,5%
  • 1,6%

0,9% 1,2% Q2 2,3%

  • 1,6%

0,4%

  • 1,0%

1,8% Q3 3,1%

  • 5,5%

0,8% 2,8%

  • 0,4%

Q4

  • 0,1%
  • 2,8%

1,0% 2,7%

  • 0,1%

Ann 1,8%

  • 2,6%

0,1% 1,4% 0,6%

  • 6,0%
  • 4,0%
  • 2,0%

0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0%

percentual change (based on number of heads)

Forecast Quarterly Slaughter: Based on realised slaughter and the GIP forecast including experts forecast

Last slaughter update : 22.3.2015 28MSs communicated GIP forecast in December

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

  • Ann. Change
  • 0,5%

1,4% 6,8%

  • 1,1%
  • 5,2%

3,3% 1,4%

  • 2,0%

0,0% 1,5% 0,4% Quantity 21.197 21.100 21.400 22.858 22.596 21.416 22.133 22.437 21.990 21.997 22.335 22.430 Pig price 138,36 139,04 145,23 135,17 153,24 142,22 140,24 153,19 170,52 175,48 156,60 100,00 120,00 140,00 160,00 180,00 200,00 10.000 12.500 15.000 17.500 20.000 22.500

Pig slaughter in the EU

slaughter in slaughterhouses

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

110 125 140 155 170 185 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Price in €uro / 100kg

Development of the EU average price for pig carcasses

avg 10 - 14

  • Forec. S
  • Forec. E

IT Forec R 2013 2014 S 2014 E

Moy.Annuelle Avg: 2010- 2014: 160,12 2012: 170,6 Euro//100kg 2013: 175,5 ,, 2014: 156,56 (E) 2014: 160,94 (S) 2015: 145,25 (E) 2015: 147,32 (S)

II/ 2015 S 149,62 E 146,62 IV/ 2015 S 145,09 E 145,20 I/ 2015 S 139,45 E 136,32 III/ 2015 S 156,00 E 153,76

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Feed costs

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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50 150 250 350 450

Jan April Juil Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

Euro / tonne

Price of Basic Ingredients 2012 - 2015

Soft wheat (EU) Barley (EU) Maïs (EU) Soja (CAF) Hulls (EU)

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

105 135 165 195

| Jan 2014 | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | 2015 | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June |

€uro/ Tonn

Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2014 & 2015)

01 Nearby 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Nov

Delivery:

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

120 140 160 180 200 220

| 2014 | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | 2015 | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun | €/Tonn

Futures for Maize EU (Euronext)

(Nearby = 2014 - 2015)

Nearby 2015 Jun 2015 Aug 2015 11 Nov Delivery:

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

900 1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400 1.500 1.600 Jan 2014| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. |

  • Nov. |

Dec. | 2015 | Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun |

Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2013 & 2014)

01 Nearby 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Aug

Delivery:

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015 50 100 150 200 250 300 50 100 150 200 250 300 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |

€uro/ T (Cereal & Soja mix/ Compound feed) Euro/ 100kg ( pig carcase)

Development of producer margins

(pig price over feed costs)

Margin/ Comp. Feed (4.4 > 3.9) Carcase price average Margin 2009 - 2013 (49,92 €/100kg) Cereals and Soja mix Compound feed

NB: Comp. Feed 2014 = Forecast as from December 2014. Cereal mix and Pig carcase price: 2015. = expectations as from March.

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Trade in Pigmeat

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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46.135 59.720 71.937 51.641 63.800 55.918 56.077 54.499 72.276 22.612 21.730 32.368 43.179 59.838 51.789 44.193 36.090 37.121 33.839 35.341 3.278 881.011 943.405 1.083.230 1.238.138 1.556.961 1.545.907 1.331.808 1.526.563 1.509.302 1.780.568 1.938.455 2.089.363 1.910.908 2.569.087 2.386.245 2.627.630 3.133.598 3.072.403 3.096.367 2.935.368 218.811

250.000 500.000 750.000 1.000.000 1.250.000 1.500.000 1.750.000 2.000.000 2.250.000 2.500.000 2.750.000 3.000.000 3.250.000 3.500.000 3.750.000 4.000.000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-Jan 15

Tonnes product weight .

IMPORTS EXPORTS

EU trade of all PIG products

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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EU imports of all PIG products

Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

to Jan-Jan 1 4

Sw itzerland 18.725 52% 19.493 53% 17.502 52% 18.180 51% 1.774 54% 4% Serbia 2.402 7% 2.391 6% 3.094 9% 3.681 10% 333 10%

  • 18%

Chile 7.734 21% 7.468 20% 5.398 16% 2.849 8% 208 6%

  • 3%

Taiw an 53 0% 0% 23 0% 92 0% 184 6% +++ Other 7.176 20% 7.769 21% 7.823 23% 10.539 30% 779 24% EXTRA EU 25/27 36.090 37.121 33.839 35.341 3.278 % change + 3%

  • 9%

+ 4% + 11,6% 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Jan 15 2014

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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1.760 1.706 1.774 197 405 333

604 586 606

3.127 2.937 3.278

500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 Jan-Jan 13 Jan-Jan 14 Jan-Jan 15

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (Tonnes prod. weight)

Switzerland Serbia Chile Taiwan China Other origins

1.696 1.234 1.079 126 226 157 1.828 2.262 2.657 5.411 4.555 5.251 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 Jan-Jan 13 Jan-Jan 14 Jan-Jan 15

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (1000 EUR)

Switzerland Serbia Chile Taiwan China Other origins

EU imports of all PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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1. 1.50 500 3. 3.00 000 4. 4.50 500 6. 6.00 000 | Jan 07 2007 | Jan 08 2008 | Jan 09 2009 | Jan 10 2010 | Jan 11 2011 | Jan 12 2012 | Jan 13 2013 | Jan 14 2014 | Jan 15

in T in Tonn nnes es (pro (produc duct t weig weight) ht)

Imports of Imports of selecte selected PIG pr d PIG products

  • ducts

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015 China + H. Kong China + H. Kong Japan Japan Mexico Mexico Russia Russia United States United States South Korea South Korea Canada (up to Apr) Canada (up to Apr) Philippines Philippines Ukraine Ukraine Australia Australia 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 2013 (up to December) 2014 (up to December) Qty in 1000 Tonnes

Main Importers of PIG Products (up to December)

(excl. live animals) Source : GTA & Eurostat

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SLIDE 27

EU exports of all PIG products:

Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

Compared to tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Jan 14 China 393.819 12,6% 586.439 19,1% 665.975 21,5% 711.084 24,2% 65.243 29,8% + 4% South Korea 193.908 6,2% 137.220 4,5% 102.728 3,3% 213.334 7,3% 24.523 11,2% + 72% Japan 231.283 7,4% 230.793 7,5% 231.524 7,5% 305.562 10,4% 19.948 9,1%

  • 20%

Hong Kong 539.364 17,2% 381.063 12,4% 387.426 12,5% 404.909 13,8% 18.745 8,6%

  • 40%

Philippines 96.880 3,1% 73.412 2,4% 100.988 3,3% 196.413 6,7% 13.060 6,0% + 19% USA 59.546 1,9% 60.822 2,0% 60.259 1,9% 84.698 2,9% 8.732 4,0% + 64% Australia 44.340 1,4% 47.269 1,5% 44.466 1,4% 62.699 2,1% 6.010 2,7% + 53% Ukraine 113.961 3,6% 161.599 5,3% 122.256 3,9% 105.185 3,6% 5.856 2,7% + 8% Angola 61.560 2,0% 59.182 1,9% 61.302 2,0% 66.794 2,3% 4.380 2,0%

  • 4%

Ivory Coast 20.419 0,7% 26.467 0,9% 35.082 1,1% 39.785 1,4% 3.647 1,7%

  • 10%

Thailand 17.863 0,6% 18.288 0,6% 22.892 0,7% 33.631 1,1% 3.122 1,4% + 20% Belarus 103.829 3,3% 123.229 4,0% 87.402 2,8% 4.790 0,2% 23 0,0%

  • 99%

Other 1.256.827 40,1% 1.166.620 14,5% 1.174.065 13,7% 706.483 14,4% 45.522 20,8% Extra EU28 3.133.598 3.072.403 3.096.367 2.935.368 218.811 % change

  • 2%

+ 1%

  • 5%
  • 11,4%

2011 2012 2013 Jan-Jan 15 2014

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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SLIDE 28

62.768 62.674 65.243

7.484 14.239 24.523 18.222 24.826 19.948

31.130 31.402 18.745

115.694 102.911 77.292 242.980 247.020 218.811 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 Jan-Jan 13 Jan-Jan 14 Jan-Jan 15

Tons (pw) .

EU-2 U-28 E 8 EXPO XPORTS RTS of

  • f PI

PIG M G Meat eat (T (Tonn

  • nnes pr

es prod. wei

  • d. weight

ght)

China South Korea Japan Hong Kong Philippines Other destinations

83.822 73.109 85.004

32.422 60.070

45.686 45.879 28.513 239.654 217.888 164.126

465.125 466.070 419.034

50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000 450.000 500.000

Jan-Jan 13 Jan-Jan 14 Jan-Jan 15

in 1,000 EUR .

EU EU-28 E 28 EXPO XPORTS o TS of PIG G Meat ( at (100 1000 EU EUR)

China South Korea Japan Hong Kong Philippines Other destinations

EU exports of all PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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SLIDE 29

50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000

| Jan 07 2007 | Jan 08 2008 | Jan 09 2009 | Jan 10 2010 | Jan 11 2011 | Jan 12 2012 | Jan 13 2013 | Jan 14 2014 | Jan 15 in Tonnes (product weight)

Exports of se sele lect cted PI ed PIG pr G prod

  • duc

ucts ts

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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SLIDE 30

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015 EU EU United States United States Canada Canada China + H. Kong China + H. Kong Brazil Brazil Chile Chile Belarus Belarus Mexico Mexico 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 2013 (up to December) 2014 (up to December) Qty in 1000 Tonnes

Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to December)

(excl.live animals) Source : GTA & Eurostat

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Processed products

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

200 400 600 800 1.000 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |

Unit price at export of Salted, Smoked & Dried pigmeat products

Carcase price Unit price SSD Intra/ 100kg Unit price SSD Extra/ 100kg

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 200 400 600 800 1.000 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |

Export to 3rd countries Quantity in Ton Unit price €uro/ 100kg

Unit price and quantitiy of Salted, Smoked & Dried pigmeat products.

(Note: abolishion of export refunds in April 2012)

  • QUANT. TON

Unit price SSD Extra/ 100kg

Avg Q. 10.1 - 12.4= 2.794 T Avg Q. 12.5 - 14.1= 2.879 T Avg Q. 14.2 - 15.1= 2.706 T

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

100 200 300 400 500 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |

Unit price at export of Saussages

Carcase price Unit price Saussages Intra/ 100kg Unit price Saussages Extra / 100kg

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 100 200 300 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |

Export to 3rd countries Quantity in Ton Unit price €uro/ 100kg

Unit price and quantitiy of Saussages.

(Note: abolishion of export refunds in April 2012)

  • QUANT. TON

Unit price Saussages Extra / 100kg

Avg Q. 10.1 - 12.4= 9.605 T Avg Q. 12.5 - 14.1= 10.982 T Avg Q. 14.2 - 15.1= 9.877 T

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Private Storage

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

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DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

Requests for PSA B Y P R O D U C T 9 09 April 2015 CUMULATIVE 9 - 08/04/2015 NC CODE PRODUCT

90 days 120 days 150 days TOTAL 90 days 120 days 150 days TOTAL

ex 0203 11 10 HALF-CARCASSES 100 150 105 355 0,7% ex 0203 12 11 HAMS 473 270 2.092 2.835 5,6% ex 0203 12 19 SHOULDERS 100 100 312 300 315 927 1,8% ex 0203 19 11 FORE ENDS 0,0% ex 0203 19 13 LOINS 1.231 264 173 1.668 3,3% ex 0203 19 55 (1) LEGS BONED 1.462 870 345 2.677 23.618 2.812 6.145 32.575 64,0% ex 0203 19 15 BELLIES 20 40 60 1.954 230 2.184 4,3% ex 0203 19 55 (2) BELLIES BONED 200 400 600 5.037 788 2.209 8.034 15,8% ex 0203 19 55 (3) MIDDLES BONED 47 15 62 2.120 170 2.290 4,5% T O T A L 1.629 1.070 800 3.499 34.844 4.584 11.439 50.867 100,0% 68,5% 9,0% 22,5%

Share by

PRIVATE STORAGE IN THE PIGMEAT SECTOR

  • Reg. (EU) 2015/360

09/04/2015

AGRI/C3 - PIGMEAT SECTOR Commission Regulation - Reg. 0826/2008 Art. 35(1)(a)

2015

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SLIDE 38

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015

5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Quantity in Ton

Week number

Weekly requested quantity for PSA pigmeat

  • Reg. 2015/360

week 15: Monday - Wednesday

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SLIDE 39

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015 DE ES FR PL DK NL IT BE UK AT HU PT IE SE FI CY EE % of EU Total pig Slaughter 24,9% 16,2% 8,8% 8,3% 7,2% 6,2% 6,0% 5,1% 3,9% 2,4% 1,7% 1,6% 1,2% 1,1% 0,8% 0,2% 0,2% % APS use 13,7% 23,8% 5,0% 14,1% 20,0% 4,7% 8,3% 2,4% 0,3% 0,7% 0,6% 1,4% 1,7% 0,6% 1,0% 0,6% 1,1%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24%

Comparisson between percentual annual slaughter and percentual use of APS scheme 2015/360

Basis: MSs using Reg. 2015/360 up to 8.4.2015

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SLIDE 40

Where to find data:

  • http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets/index_en.htm
  • Click on link: Pigmeat
  • Click on link: Presentations and prices

(righthand side under: in this chapter)

  • Choose the item (link) you want

DG AGRI C3 14 April 2015