City of Trinidad Draft Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

City of Trinidad Draft Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Responses

Dagan Short and Brendan Byrd April 26, 2016

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

Introduction and Purpose Studies Reviewed Regional Climate Change Overview Vulnerabilities Adaptation Strategies

Presentation Outline

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

Introduction Purpose

• Update City’s Local Coastal Program (LCP)
• Perform Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment to determine

climate change impacts and adaptation measures to use within LCP

Climate Change Analysis Method

1. Gather regionally relevant climate change data 2. Review data to determine likely range of impacts 3. Identify areas at risk to climate change impacts 4. Identify adaptation strategies to mitigate impacts

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

1. Humboldt Bay: Sea Level Rise, Hydrodynamic Modeling, and Inundation Vulnerability Mapping (Northern Hydrology and Engineering) 2. Climate Change Projections for Caltrans District 1 Climate Change Pilot Study (ESA) 3. Cal-Adapt (California Energy Commission) 4. Sea Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington (National Research Council) 5. Tectonic Land Level Changes and Their Contribution to Sea Level Rise, Humboldt Bay Region, Northern California (Cascadia Geosciences)

Primary Studies/References Review ed

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

How is climate change predicted?

• Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

Used to mathematically predict energy and mass movement on global scale

Emissions Scenarios

• A2 – High Emissions (“worst-case”)
• B1 – Low Emissions (“best-case”)

Common Impacts Modelled

• Global warming, sea level rise, precipitation

Climate Change Overview

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

Global Warming

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2035 2050 2065 2099

Increase in Average Annual Temperature (°F) Scenario A2 Scenario B1

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

Contributing Factors

• Vertical Land Movement (VLM)
• Change in Mean Sea Level (MSL)

Vertical Land Movement

• ~1 mm/year upward
• Based on first order leveling data

Sea Level Rise

• 2030: 1.6 – 8.3 inches
• 2050: 4.3 – 18.1 inches
• 2100: 15.3 – 54.3 inches

Sea Level Rise

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

Vertical land movement (Patton et al, 2014).

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

Sea Level Rise Continued

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

25.6 11.3 50.4 10 20 30 40 50 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Projected Sea Level Rise (inches)

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

Precipitation

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Average Precipitation (inches) A2 Emissions Scenario B1 Emissions Scenario

Additional Impacts

• Decreased fog (estimated 33% decrease past century)
• Increased rain intensity (large storm events)

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

Wildfire

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2020 2050 2085

Increase in Burned Area A2 Scenario B1 Scenario

Current Risk Level

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

Global Warming

• Increased outdoor water demand

Sea Level Rise

• Public beaches
• Coastal bluffs
• Trinidad harbor

Precipitation

• Water supply (quality and quantity)
• Older/undersized stormwater infrastructure

Wildfire

• Increased wildfire vulnerability

Vulnerabilities/Impacts

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

Adapt/prepare for climate change by:

• Establishing mapped hazard zones
• Establish shoreline management plan
• Control stormwater runoff and pollution
• Limit new development in hazard areas
• Develop plans to remove or relocate threatened structures
• Foster efforts to better understand impacts of sea level rise
• Promote fire-safe communities
• Evaluate water treatment system performance
• Plan to replace loss of recreational access
• Increase water conservation
• Continuing climate change evaluations

Adaptation Strategies

City of Trinidad Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Response

City of Trinidad Geotechnical Evaluation

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Questions?