City Council Study Session December 6, 2016 Tonights Agenda and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

City Council Study Session

December 6, 2016

Tonight’s Agenda and Discussion Items I. Growth Considerations

• II. Buildout Analysis Process and Initial Results
• III. Discussion and Questions

• I. GROWTH CONSIDERATIONS –

POPULATION: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTIONS

General Plan Planning Horizon

2040 2040

The planning horizon for Envision Burlingame (both the General Plan and Zoning Ordinance) is 2040. This is a typical timeline for a General Plan, and coincides with other local and regional planning efforts. The General Plan and Zoning Ordinance may be amended during that time, but this effort is intended to describe and plan for what changes the community intends for the duration. The environmental review will evaluate environmental impacts for this same timeframe.

Plan Bay Area 2040 – Implications for Burlingame

Burlingame Housing Element

ABAG projects an approximate 10% po popul pulation i n incr ncrea ease se ea each ch deca decade de in Burlingame based on regional employment and demographic trends, achieving a population of 38,400 in 2040.

Burlingame Growth – Historic Patterns

Burlingame Housing Element

Burlin rlinga game me Popu pula latio tion Grow

• wth b

h bet etween een 1990-2014

Ye Year Pop Population

• n

% I Inc ncrea ease e 1990 26,801

• 2000

28,158 5% 2010 28,806 2.3% 2014 29,618 2.8%

Ye Year Jo Jobs Per ercent ent C Cha hang nge 1998 34,216

• 2003

30,274

• 11.5%

2008 33,985 12.3% 2012 33,995 0.03%

Burlingame Growth – Historic Patterns

Burlin rlinga game me Emplo mployme ment Grow

• wth b

h bet etween een 1998-2012

US Census CBP/ZBP , 2012; Strategic Economics, 2015

Burlingame Growth – Regional Housing Needs Allocation

Burlingame Housing Element 2015-2023. ABAG, Final 2014-2022 Regional housing Need Allocation by County, via 21 Elements; Income for family of 4 from HCD State Income Limits 2013, via 21 Elements

Inc ncome C e Categ egory Def efinit initio ion Inc ncome e for Fa Family ily of 4 4 Num Number er o

• f Unit

Units Extremely Low Household income up to 30% of AMI $33,950 138 Very Low Household income 31-50% of AMI $56,550 138 Low Household income 51-80% of AMI $90,500 144 Median Income Area Median Income (AMI) $103,000 Moderate Household income 81-120% of AMI $123,600 155 Above Moderate Household income above 120% of AMI Market Rate 288 TOTAL CU CURRE RRENT N NEED EED 863 863 AVERA VERAGE Y YEA EARL RLY NEED EED 108 108

Bur urling ngame e RHNA: 2015 2015-202 2023

Burlingame Growth - Current Residential Pipeline Projects

Status Total Units Net New Residents* Approved Projects 444 932- 1024 Proposed Projects 103 216 - 237 Preliminary Projects (presented but no application) 600 - 672 1,260 – 1,546 TOTAL 1,147 – 1,219 2,641 – 2,807

* Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Burlingame Growth - Current Non-Residential Pipeline Projects

Status Total Square Feet Approved Projects 857,514 Proposed Projects 246,737 Preliminary Projects (presented but no application) 430,000 TOTAL 1,534,251

Burlingame Growth – Benchmarks 10% G Grow

• wth

h as suggested at previous study session 29,618 x 10% = 2,962 r res esident dents 2,962 residents = 1, 1,288 t 288 to 1, 1,410 u 410 units

* Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Dow

• wnt

ntow

• wn Spec

n Specific Plan n evaluated up up to

• 1,232 uni

units 1,232 units = 2, 2,587 587 to 2, 2,834 834 res esident dents

* Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Burlingame Growth – Benchmarks Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) specifies 863 u 863 units between 2015 and 2023 2023 863 units = 1, 1,812 t 812 to 1, 1,985 r 985 residents

* Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

RHNA ex extra rapol polated ed to

• 2040 (at 108

units per year) equates to 2, 2,697 u 697 units between 2015 and 2040 2,697 units = 5, 5,663 663 to 6, 6,203 203 res esident dents

* Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Burlingame Growth – Benchmarks Dev evel elopment

• pment P

Pipel peline ne 444 units approved = 932 932 to 1, 1,021 021 residents 103 units proposed = 216 t 216 to 237 r 237 residents 600 to 672 units in preliminary planning = 1, 1,260 t 260 to 1,547 r res esident dents TOTAL = 2, = 2,408 408 – 2,805 res esident dents f from

• m pi

pipel peline ne pr proj

• jec

ects

* Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Burlingame Growth – Benchmarks

10% 10% G Growth th 2,962 r 2,962 resid sidents ts Devel evelopment ent Pip ipelin line 2,408 2,408 – 2,805 2,805 res esident ents Dow Downtow

• wn

Sp Spec ecifi fic P Plan 2,587 2,587 – 2,834 2,834 res esident ents RHN HNA 1,812 1,812 – 1,985 1,985 res esident ents to to 2023 2023 RHN HNA 5,663 5,663 – 6,203 6,203 res esident ents to to 2040 2040

• I. GROWTH CONSIDERATIONS –

RESOURCE AND INFRASTRUCTURE CAPACITY

Burlingame Growth – Water Supply

• 2015 Urban Water Management Plan bases service

estimates on ABAG projections: – Future pop

• pulat

ation

• n in service area of 39,530

39,530 by 2040 – Job

• b g

growt

• wth to 40,164

40,164 by 2040

• The City pur

purcha chases ses 1,909 1,909 millio illion g gallo llons of potable water from SFPUC annually, stored in seven reservoirs (capacity of 2.9 million gallons).

• A consistent per

per ca capi pita decr decrea ease se in water consumption

• ver the past 10 years will help offset growth impacts.

Burlingame Growth – Water Supply

Source: Burlingame 2015 Urban Water Management Plan

Burlingame Growth – Water Supply Infrastructure

Source: Burlingame 2015 Urban Water Management Plan

Burlingame Growth – Water Supply

• Assuming “n

“normal” n l” non-dry ye ry years rs, Burlingame will have adequate water supply to accommodate projected growth until approximately 2040. – A potential defi defici cit o

• f

f 2% could be experienced in 2040 – Water cutback measures would need to be implemented to offset this deficit.

• If dry ye

ry years rs are experienced, sho shortfa falls o s of f 7%-17% 17% could be experienced.

• A recycled water facility could help offset some of these
• shortfalls. The 2015 Urban Water Management Plan includes

conservation measures and implementation.

Burlingame Growth – Sewer System Infrastructure

• Burlingame Wastewater Treatment Facility (WWTF)

provides sew sewer er ser service fo ce for appr pproxi ximatel ely 2 29,890 peo peopl ple. – During wet weather, sewer flows can reach up to 25 mgd, exceeding the maxi ximum um ca capa paci city o

• f 1

f 15 mg mgd – Excess flow is discharged into the Bay.

• 2015 Sewer System Master Plan (revised) addresses

capacity-related overflows. – As of 2015, 100% of t f the hi he high gh pr priority sew sewer er pr project ects s ha have e been co been compl plet eted ed, and basin-wide collection improvements are expected to be complete by 2025. – In 2011, the City constructed a 1.6 m 1.6 mg stor

• rmwat

water ret etent ention ba n basi sin. n.

• The plan only addresses current capacity issues, and do

does es no not a acco ccount unt fo for gr growth h pr project ections ns.

Burlingame Growth – Sewer System Infrastructure

Burlingame Growth – Roadway Capacity

• Most of Burlingame’s intersections operate with

accept cceptabl ble l e lev evel els o s of f ser service ce.

• The Broad
• adway

way/Cal Califor

• rnia D

a Drive/Car Carol

• lan

an A Avenue int nter ersect sections ns experience delays during the morning and afternoon weekday peak hours.

• The Broadw

dway Int nter ercha change P nge Project ect and future plans for gr grade sepa de separation n at Broadway will improve existing traffic constraints.

Burlingame Growth – Existing Traffic

Intersection Peak Hour Existing LOS El Camino Real and Millbrae Avenue (CMP) morning E evening D El Camino Real and Broadway (CMP) morning B evening B El Camino Real and Peninsula Avenue – Park Road (CMP) morning C evening C Carolan Avenue and Broadway morning C evening D California Drive and Broadway morning E evening D California Drive and Oak Grove Avenue morning C evening C

Source: C/CAG, 2013 CMP Monitoring Report, Appendix F: LOS and Performance Measure Monitoring Report. Source: Hexagon Transportation Consultants, Inc., Draft Traffic Impact Analysis for Residential Development at Carolan Avenue and Rollins Road, 8/21/2014. Counts Conducted on 11/19/2013

Burlingame Growth – School Enrollment

Source: Burlingame School District

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Enrollment 1993 - present

Burlingame Growth – School Capacity

School 2015-2016 Enrollment Capacity Franklin Elementary 612 615 Hoover Elementary 250 250 Lincoln Elementary 490 500 McKinley Elementary 520 625 Roosevelt Elementary 353 345 Washington Elementary 370 370 Burlingame Intermediate School 1,100 1,255

Source: Burlingame School District Facilities Master Plan, June 2016

• III. BUILDOUT ANALYSIS PROCESS

AND INITIAL RESULTS

Buildout Analysis Process Buildout analysis based on the Proposed Land Use Plan

Buildout Analysis Process

• 1. Map existing “on the ground” land uses
• 2. Map proposed land uses
• 3. Calculate areas for each land use category
• 4. Establish assumed densities for each land use

category

• 5. Calculate residential units and non-residential

square footage based on assumed categories

• 6. Compare existing calculations to proposed to see

net new units and square footages

• 7. Use conversion rates to estimate jobs generation

Buildout Analysis Process Buildout analysis based on the Proposed Land Use Plan

Initial Buildout Results: Housing and Population

Single-Family Units Multi-Family Units Total Units Population* Existing 6,873 6,241 13,144 29,724 Buildout Total 6,922 9,144 16,065 33,737 - 36,600 Net New 48 2,903 2,951 6,197 - 6,876

* Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Pr Projec ected ed Hous using ng and nd Po Popul ulation Growth

Initial Buildout Results: Non-Residential and Jobs

Commercial Office Industrial Hotel Institutional Total Existing

2,276,043 5,845,910 4,162,017 2,717,237 2,563,920 15,001,744

Buildout Total

2,602,043 5,793,472 4,432,080 3,217,556 2,563,920 18,611,072

Net New

325,463

• 52,437

270,062 502,319 3,609,327

Jobs Existing* 36,810 Buildout Total 38,356 Net New 1,547

* Existing jobs based on 2014 data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies

Pr Projec ected ed Non-Re Reside dential Growth – squa uare e feet eet Proje

• jected Job
• bs

s Grow

• wth

Initial Buildout Results – Comparison to ABAG Projections

General Plan Buildout ABAG Projection Total Housing Units 16,065 17,200 Total Population* 33,737 - 36,600 39,530 Total Number of Jobs 38,356 40,164

* Based on an average household size of 2.1 - 2.3 persons

Source: ABAG 2013 projections from Burlingame 2015 Urban Water Management Plan

Gener eneral Pl Plan n Total Bui uildout ut vs. ABAG projec ection n of 10% 10% growth h per er dec ecade e based ed on n em employment ent and nd dem emographi hic trend ends

City Council Study Session

December 6, 2016