Change of car-dependent lifestyles and its implications on policies - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Change of car-dependent lifestyles and its implications on policies - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Change of car-dependent lifestyles and its implications on policies - Focus on young adults - Toshiyuki Yamamoto Nagoya University 1 Outline Introduction Comparison among six countries Three potential factors in Japan Policy

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Change of car-dependent lifestyles and its implications on policies

  • Focus on young adults -

Toshiyuki Yamamoto Nagoya University

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Outline

  • Introduction
  • Comparison among six countries
  • Three potential factors in Japan
  • Policy implications

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Young people’s mobility development in industrialized countries

  • For decades: in line with the growth of per

capita travel

– Increasing motorization and car use

  • More recently: changes in travel behavior

– Decreasing car orientation and reduced overall travel – ‘Peak Travel’

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Objectives

  • Identify important common denominators of

the development across industrialized countries as well as highlights differences

  • Identify factors for downward trend in Japan

Focus on young adults:

  • More mobile than any other age group
  • Shapes future travel demand
  • More likely to change travel behavior in

response to changing conditions

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Comparison among six countries

Kuhnimhof, T., Armoogum, J., Buehler, R., Dargay, J., Denstadli, J.M. and Yamamoto, T. (2012). Men shape a downward trend in car use among young adults – Evidence from six industrialized countries, Transport Reviews, Vol. 32, 761-779.

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Data

  • Germany, Great Britain, France, Japan, Norway

and USA

  • 1970s to date
  • National travel survey data

– Nationwide Person Trip Survey for Japan: 41 cities

  • Young adults: 20 to 29 years old

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Driving license

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 94 08 02 08 95/97 09 95/97 09 98 09 98 09 95 10 95 10 95 10 95 10 20-29 18-29 17-20 21-29 18-24 25-34 < 20 20-29 16-19 20-29 FR GE GB NO US JP female male total

  • Decline especially for men

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Car availability

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 81 93 07 76 95-99 05-09 75 95-97 04-06 85 98 05 83 01 08 92 99 05 FR GE GB NO US JP (41 cities) female male total

  • Decline for men
  • Increase for women in Japan
  • License holding & vehicle ownership in household

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Modal split

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 81 93 07 76 95-99 05-09 75 95-97 04-06 85 98 05 83 01 08 87 99 05 FR GE GB NO US JP (41 cities) public transport

  • n foot

bicycle motorcycle car

  • Car dominant in USA
  • Car share has declined recently except Japan

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Multimodality

  • No multimodality in USA
  • High multimodality in Japan (partly by survey area)
  • Share of mileage by those with car availability

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 81 93 07 76 95-99 05-09 75 95-97 04-06 85 98 05 83 01 08 92 99 05 FR GE GB NO US JP (41 cities)

  • ther

public transport car

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Car mileage

  • Low in Japan (partly by survey area)
  • Germany & Great Britain peaked in late 1990s
  • Decline in 2008 for USA (high fuel price & economic crisis)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Car kilometres per trip maker and day US GE FR NO GB JP (41 cities)

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Car mileage & total mileage by gender

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total 81 93 07 76 95-99 05-09 75 95-97 04-06 FR GE GB Kilometres per trip maker and day non car modes car

  • Men reduced car mileage more strongly than women
  • Only German shifted to alternative modes significantly

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Car mileage & total mileage by gender

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total 85 98 05 83 01 08 87 92 05 NO US JP (41 cities) Kilometers per trip maker and day non car modes car

  • Gender gap has narrowed significantly except Norway
  • Car mileage of women continued to grow in France & Japan

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Possible explanations

  • Socio-economic changes

– Increasing share of receiving tertiary education – Decreasing workforce participation – Increasing age for starting a family – Increasing share of urban population

  • Factors with possible impacts

– Fuel price increases except Japan – Policy measures discouraging driving – Developments in long-distance travel (LCC air & high speed rail) – Psychological factors: environmental awareness and pragmatism in mobility choice – Impact of ICT

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Conclusions

  • Access to cars has decreased, particularly for

men

  • Car mileage has also decreased, particularly

for men

  • In France, Japan and USA, decrease in car

travel has led to lower overall mileages

  • In Great Britain and Germany, decrease in car

travel was compensated by increased use of alternative modes

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Three potential factors in Japan

Miwa, Y. (2011). Study on change in car ownership behavior of young people, Master thesis, Department

  • f Civil Engineering, Nagoya University (in Japanese)

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Three potential factors and Data

Three potential factors (M1F1 Research Institute, 2007)

  • Convenience of transit at metropolitan areas
  • Financial constraint
  • Diversification of hobby

Data

  • Nationwide Person Trip Survey
  • Family Income and Expenditure Survey
  • Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activity

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Household car ownership rates

  • Household with household head of twenties
  • Slight variation among surveys, but decreases

in this century

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Rate of household head in twenties

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1987 1992 1999 2005 1989 1994 1999 2004 1991 1996 2001 2006 Nationwide Person Trip Survey Family Income and Expenditure Survey Survey on Time Use and Leisure Survey

  • Increasing age for starting a family

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Share of unmarried people living with their parents (20 to 34 years old)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 Male Female

  • Access to cars of parents?

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Car ownership by region

  • Lower and decreasing at three major met. areas

– Public transit & cost for parking space?

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Car ownership of multi-person household by disposable income

Sample share Car ownership rate by disposable income Three major metropolitan areas Regional urban areas

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2004 1999 1994 1989

  • 15

15-20 20- 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2004 1999 1994 1989

  • 15

15-20 20- 75 80 85 90 95 100 1989 1994 1999 2004

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15-20 20- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1989 1994 1999 2004

  • 15

15-20 20-

  • Not significant decrease

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Car ownership of one-person household by disposable income

Sample share Car ownership rate by disposable income Three major metropolitan areas Regional urban areas

  • Decrease even in high income household

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Car ownership by rate of out-of-home discretionary activity time on holiday

Sample share Car ownership rate by rate of discretionary activity time Three major metropolitan areas Regional urban areas

0% 50% 100% 2006 2001 1996 1991 0-10(%) 10-20(%) 20(%)- 0% 50% 100% 2006 2001 1996 1991 0-10(%) 10-20(%) 20(%)- 10 20 30 40 50 60 1991 1996 2001 2006 0-10(%) 10-20(%) 20(%)- 20 40 60 80 100 1989 1994 1999 2004 0-10(%) 10-20(%) 20(%)-

  • Positive correlation has disappeared

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Product & service interests ranking for young adults (JAMA, 2009)

20 yrs ago (40s to 50s) 10 yrs ago (20s to 30s) Current college students 1 Fashion 35.7% PC 50.7% PC 62.1% 2 Domestic trip 34.0% Fashion 47.7% Fashion 53.9% 3 Eat out 32.0% Telecom device 39.7% Potable music player 50.6% 4 Book 31.7% Domestic trip 37.3% Telecom device 49.9% 5 Music 31.3% Music 37.0% Domestic trip 44.0% 6 Movie 27.2% Eat out 33.7% Music 43.7% 7 Car

27.0%

Overseas trip 32.7% Book 42.9% 8 PC 25.7% Potable music player 31.0% Animation/Manga 42.0% 9 Overseas trip 23.7% Book 31.0% Game 38.4% 10 Audio 20.3% Car 25.3% Eat out 37.6% 17 Car 22.8%

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Conclusions

On three potential factors

  • Convenience of transit at metropolitan areas

– Consistent with data for one-person household

  • Financial constraint

– Not significant

  • Diversification of hobby

– Supported by data

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Policy implications

  • We do not know whether

– this new generation of travelers maintains their novel travel patterns as they age, or – they simply return to the more auto-oriented mobility styles of their predecessors later in life

  • Policy measures to encourage them to keep their

travel patterns

– At starting a family – Car availability without owning: carsharing

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