CHANGE IN ALASKA ON: Military Installations and Action Planning at - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ALASKA ON: Military Installations and Action Planning

at Alaska Common Ground 14 November 2015

• J. Jerome “Doc” Montague, Ph.D.

Native Affairs and Natural Resources Advisor Alaskan Command

Unified Command Plan: Combatant Commands (COCOMs)

Lieutenant General Russell Handy, Commander Alaskan Command

• St. Paul Island RRS

Sparrevohn LRRS Cape Newenham LRRS King Salmon Airport Cold Bay LRRS Eareckson Air Station Tatalina LRRS Cape Romanzof LRRS Point Barrow LRRS Cape Lisburne LRRS Kotzebue LRRS Tin City LRRS Indian Mountain LRRS Fort Yukon LRRS Barter Island LRRS Oliktok LRRS Murphy Dome LRRS Valdez RRS Middleton Island RRS JBER Eielson AFB Ft Wainwright Ft Greely Clear AS USCGAS Kodiak USCGAS Sitka MSD Unalaska MSU Valdez MSD Ketchikan Sector Juneau Sector Anc MSD Homer

Joint Base Air Force Base Army Base Coast Guard Station Radar/Radio Site Marine Safety Unit/Det

Military Population

23K DoD & USCG AD 5K Guard and Reserve 7K Civil Service 43K Family

78,000 Direct Military Influence

President Obama: Climate Change Is an 'Immediate Risk to Our National Security'

Climate Change Affects Military:

1.Plans and Operations

• 2. Training
• 3. Infrastructure

Why Is It Important ?

“significant upheaval related to the warming planet is probably the most likely thing that is going to happen . . . that will cripple the security environment over the long term’’ ADM Samuel

• J. Locklear III, Commander, Pacific Command March 8, 2013
• Climate change poses a significant challenge

(2014 Quadrennial Defense Review) The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions – conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence.

• J.J. Montague "Science of Climate Change"

J-Curve of Human Population

“Forces such as rapid population growth have put us at a strategic inflection point….” GEN Martin Dempsey, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff November 28, 2011 “will only get worse as the population soars and even more people move near the ports and facilities that support globalization” ADM Samuel Locklear, Commander Pacific Command April 9, 2013

J.J. Montague "Science of Climate Change"

15 of 20 of World’s Largest Urban Areas Near the Coast 14 of 20 Largest Urban Areas in Asia

Catalysts for Instability and Conflict

What We Are Doing

Plans and Operations

• DoD Climate Change

Adaption Roadmap (2014) Directive (2015?)

• The Arctic

– U.S. Arctic policy directs the Departments of State, Homeland Security, and Defense to:

• Develop greater capabilities and capacity to

protect U.S. borders

• Increase Arctic maritime domain awareness
• Cooperate with Arctic nations to address

issues like increased shipping (e.g. SAR)

– Unified Command Plan 2011

• USNORTHCOM and USEUCOM share Arctic

geographic combatant commander responsibilities

• USNORTHCOM is responsible for advocating

for Arctic capabilities

– Arctic Port Study – COMALCOM is USNORTHCOM’s operational- level lead for the Arctic

• UAF MOU, Arctic 101

Military Training Areas

• 65,000 square miles of

available airspace

• 2,490 square miles of

land space with 1.5 million acres of maneuver land

• 42,000 square nautical

miles of sea and air space in the Gulf of Alaska

Anticipated Affects on Alaska Military Training Areas

• Training Windows Reduced, Altered or Eliminated
• Encroachment
• Loss to surface infrastructure
• Changes to Flora and Fauna

What We Are Doing

• CC Roadmap/Directive
• DoD Instruction: Sustaining Access to the Live Training

Domain

• Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting

Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Ecosystems”

Shoreline Erosion

Increased Fetch Late Shorefast Ice Melting permafrost Warmer water

Affects on Military Infrastructure

Melting Permafrost

Subsidence Lake Drainage

Mechanics of Shoreline Erosion along the Arctic Coast

• 1. Storm Surge
• 2. Niche Growth

Conceptual model of erosional niche/block collapse mechanism (Ravens et al. 2012)

• 3. Block Collapse
• 4. Block Erosion

Modelling Pilot Study – Point Lonely

Shoreline Change at Point Lonely SRRS: 2006 ‐ 2014

SS002

Erosion of Area of Environmental Concern

Map showing erosion:

The shoreline in 1954 The dump site and the barge landing have already eroded away.

Innovative Readiness Training Assistance in Newtok Relocation

What Are We Doing?

• Moving assets and Infrastructure ahead of

shoreline erosion

• Pilot study addressing accelerating erosion
• Study Addressing the Impacts of Climate

Change on U.S. Army Alaska with Decision Support Tools Developed through Field Work Modeling

• Assisting where possible

19

QUESTIONS?

J.J. Montague "Science of Climate Chang