Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Project type: EU INTERREG IV B project Period: 36 months Kick-off meeting: 10-12 January 2011 HELCOM HABITAT meeting 24 May 2012 Susanne Altvater Ecologic Institute www.baltadapt.eu
Background EU ´ s strategy for the Baltic Sea... • Elaborated by the European Commission • Launched in 2009 • Four focus areas: 1) Environmentally sustainable development 2) Increase economical/industrial competitivenes 3) Improve infrastructure 4) Security • Focus area 1), priority area 5 (of 15): „Adaptation to climate change“ • Priority area 5 is implemented via the action plan: „To establish a regional adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea Region“ BALTADAPT www.baltadapt.eu
Mission Baltadapt′s mission is to prepare and adapt the Baltic Sea Region to ongoing climate change. www.baltadapt.eu
Project goals and expected results Overall objective: • Come up with sustainable solutions for climate adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region Objectives: • Develop a climate change adaptation startegy for the Baltic Sea region Expected results: • Improve knowledge sharing between scientists and politicians • Collect existing knowledge on climate change adaptation, and identify and fill in gaps of this knowledge • Develop a climate change adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea region • Develop an action plan (for decision makers) for the Baltic Sea region www.baltadapt.eu
Baltadapt partnership Finnish Environment The Secretariat of the Council of the Baltic Sea Institute (SYKE) States (CBSS)/Baltic 21 University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute Swedish Meteorological (EMI) and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) University of Latvia (LU) Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI; LP) Baltic Environmental Forum (BEF), Lithuania National Environmental Leibniz Institute for Research Institute, Aarhus, Baltic Sea Research University (NERI) Federal Ministry for the Warnem ü nde (IOW) Environment, Nature Associated partner: PP Conservation and Nuclear Federal Environment Shirshov Institute of Agency (UBA) Safety (BMU)- Oceanology, Russia subcontractor: Ecologic I. www.baltadapt.eu
Project structure Work package 3: Work package 5: Develop a BSR Develop a BSR Project management Communication and climate change climate change Work package 2: Work package 1: adaptation strategy action plan information Work package 4: Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR www.baltadapt.eu
Project structure – WP 4 Work package 4: Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR Work group 1: Work group 2: Work group 3: ww BSR physical system BSR ecosystem BSR coastal zone Status: T1: Describe the state of knowledge (review and compilation of literature and recent research results) T2: Identify climate change impacts on the physical system, eco system and coastal zone env. cond. (e.g., questionnaires send to experts) T3: Review of adaptation strategies , identify funding needs for future activities The assessment in WP 4 is a review of existing knowledge on climate change and related issues, not an evaluation of climate change itself. www.baltadapt.eu
Background The Baltic Sea and its coastlines face challenges due to climate change... • Changes in precipitation amounts and patterns • Increase in terrestrial and sea temperatures • Rise in sea level • Decrease in ice cover • Intensified eutrophication and algal blooms, increased runoff and pollution ...it is time to adapt now! www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change - what does data tells us Ensemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenario Winter temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg. Summer temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg. 1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to 1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Conclusion: 3-5ºC increase in the Baltic Conclusion: 2-4ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region Sea region Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change - what does data tells us Ensemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenariet Winter precipitation [change in % from (avg. Summer precipitation [change in % from (avg. 1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50- 1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50-percentile percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model nine model scenarios) scenarios) Conclusion: ~20-40% higher precipitation Conclusion: ~5% less to 24% higher in the Baltic Sea region precipitation in the Baltic Sea region Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change – storm surges Areas affected by storm surges Coast lines in the North Sea and Baltic Sea affected by storm surges Future changes in sea level and in storm surge heights owing to: 1) Changes in global sea level. 2) Regional and local changes owing to land rise. 3) Changes in direction and strength of local winds. Schmidt-Thomé, P., et al. (2006). The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazards in Europe -ESPON 1.3.1 (ESPON report No. 1.3.1). Geological Survey of Finland (GTK). www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change – storm surges Increase in water level: Effect of changes Expected increase in sea level by yr. 2100 in local winds (2100 – Now) Individual Expected sea level rise contributions in Danish waters by yr. 2100 Global sea level rise 30 -100 cm – (10 - 20) cm Land rise Contrib. from local winds 0 - 40 cm Sum 10 - 120 cm Modeled (IPCC A2) 10 yr. extreme for year 2100 minus today. Largest increase (up to 20 K. S. Madsen, Recent and future climatic changes in temperature, salinity, and sea level of the North Sea and the - 40 cm) is expected in the Wadden sea, Gulf Baltic Sea. PhD thesis, 2009, pp. 1-149. of Finland and the Bothnian Bay. Danish energy agency, see http://www.klimatilpasning.dk www.baltadapt.eu
Upcoming ecological studies • Biodiversity and habitats in future Baltic climate scenarios (by Karsten Dahl, Alf Josefson, Cordula Göke, Jesper Philip Aagaard Christensen, Jørgen Hansen – all DMI) • Baltic fish stocks and fisheries (by H. Peltonen, SYKE) www.baltadapt.eu
1. Biodiversity and habitats in future Baltic climate scenarios • Topics: Climate change related effects on the eutrophication state of the Baltic Sea Temperature effect on nutrient concentrations in estuaries – less nitrogen and more phosphorous Reactions of plankton to anthropogenic climate change in the Baltic Sea Scenarios of fauna and flora changes due to climate warming in the Baltic Sea - effects of decreased salinity and spreading of hypoxia www.baltadapt.eu
1. Biodiversity and habitats in future Baltic climate scenarios • Topics: Effects of increasing temperature on selected macroalgel species Expected global change effects on seaweed forests Global change effect on eelgrass communities Expected effects on biota by hazardous substances in a future climate (case study from Lithuania) www.baltadapt.eu
2. The Baltic Sea fish stocks and fisheries • Topics: Are the marine fish populations of the Baltic Sea unique? Climate change and ecosystem regime shifts Climate changes and zooplankton production Consequences of climate change on fish stocks (cod, sprat and herring) Adaptation measures www.baltadapt.eu
Baltadapt Climate Info Baltadapt Climate Info – The Baltic Sea in a future climate (WP 4, Develop a knowledge base) #1 Air temperature #2 Precipitation #3 Wind #4 Sea level #5 Oxygen content #6 Salinity #7 Water temperature #8 Biodiversity and habitats #9 Biological production #10 Wind-generated waves #11 River discharge #12 Nutrient loads #13 Eutrophication #14 Sea ice Available at www.baltadapt.eu www.baltadapt.eu
Thank you! susanne.altvater@ecologic.eu Ecologic Institute, Pfalzburger Str. 43-44, D-10717 Berlin phone +49 (30) 86880-0, fax +49 (30) 86880-100 www.ecologic.eu www.baltadapt.eu
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