Change Adaptation Strategy Project type: EU INTERREG IV B project - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Change Adaptation Strategy Project type: EU INTERREG IV B project - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 25, 2023 276 likes •475 views

Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Project type: EU INTERREG IV B project Period: 36 months Kick-off meeting: 10-12 January 2011 HELCOM HABITAT meeting 24 May 2012 Susanne Altvater Ecologic Institute www.baltadapt.eu

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www.baltadapt.eu

Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Project type: EU INTERREG IV B project Period: 36 months Kick-off meeting: 10-12 January 2011 HELCOM HABITAT meeting 24 May 2012 Susanne Altvater Ecologic Institute

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www.baltadapt.eu

Background

EU´s strategy for the Baltic Sea...

  • Elaborated by the European Commission
  • Launched in 2009
  • Four focus areas:

1) Environmentally sustainable development 2) Increase economical/industrial competitivenes 3) Improve infrastructure 4) Security

  • Focus area 1), priority area 5 (of 15): „Adaptation to

climate change“

  • Priority area 5 is implemented via the action plan:

„To establish a regional adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea Region“  BALTADAPT

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www.baltadapt.eu

Baltadapt′s mission is to prepare and adapt the Baltic Sea Region to

  • ngoing climate change.

Mission

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Project goals and expected results

Overall objective:

  • Come up with sustainable solutions for climate adaptation in the Baltic

Sea Region

Objectives:

  • Develop a climate change adaptation startegy for the Baltic Sea region

Expected results:

  • Improve knowledge sharing between scientists and politicians
  • Collect existing knowledge on climate change adaptation, and identify and

fill in gaps of this knowledge

  • Develop a climate change adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea region
  • Develop an action plan (for decision makers) for the Baltic Sea region
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www.baltadapt.eu

Baltadapt partnership

The Secretariat of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS)/Baltic 21 Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI; LP) Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute (EMI) University of Latvia (LU) Baltic Environmental Forum (BEF), Lithuania Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) Federal Environment Agency (UBA) Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW) National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus, University (NERI) Associated partner: PP Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)- subcontractor: Ecologic I.

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Project structure

Work package 1: Project management Work package 2: Communication and information Work package 4: Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR Work package 3: Develop a BSR climate change adaptation strategy Work package 5: Develop a BSR climate change action plan

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www.baltadapt.eu

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Project structure – WP 4

Work group 1: BSR physical system Work group 2: BSR ecosystem Work package 4: Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR Work group 3: BSR coastal zone

Status: T1: Describe the state of knowledge (review and compilation of literature and recent research results) T2: Identify climate change impacts on the physical system, eco system and coastal zone env. cond. (e.g., questionnaires send to experts) T3: Review of adaptation strategies, identify funding needs for future activities

The assessment in WP 4 is a review of existing knowledge on climate change and related issues, not an evaluation of climate change itself.

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www.baltadapt.eu

Background

The Baltic Sea and its coastlines face challenges due to climate change...

  • Changes in precipitation amounts

and patterns

  • Increase in terrestrial and sea

temperatures

  • Rise in sea level
  • Decrease in ice cover
  • Intensified eutrophication and algal

blooms, increased runoff and pollution

...it is time to adapt now!

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Climate change - what does data tells us

Ensemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenario

Summer temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg. 1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Winter temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg. 1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios)

Conclusion: 3-5ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region Conclusion: 2-4ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region

Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI

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Climate change - what does data tells us

Ensemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenariet

Winter precipitation [change in % from (avg. 1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50- percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Summer precipitation [change in % from (avg. 1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios)

Conclusion: ~20-40% higher precipitation in the Baltic Sea region Conclusion: ~5% less to 24% higher precipitation in the Baltic Sea region

Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI

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Climate change – storm surges

Areas affected by storm surges

Schmidt-Thomé, P., et al. (2006). The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazards in Europe -ESPON 1.3.1 (ESPON report No. 1.3.1). Geological Survey of Finland (GTK).

Coast lines in the North Sea and Baltic Sea affected by storm surges Future changes in sea level and in storm surge heights owing to: 1) Changes in global sea level. 2) Regional and local changes owing to land rise. 3) Changes in direction and strength

  • f local winds.
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Climate change – storm surges

Modeled (IPCC A2) 10 yr. extreme for year 2100 minus today. Largest increase (up to 20

  • 40 cm) is expected in the Wadden sea, Gulf
  • f Finland and the Bothnian Bay.

Expected sea level rise in Danish waters by yr. 2100 Individual contributions Global sea level rise 30 -100 cm Land rise – (10 - 20) cm

  • Contrib. from local winds

0 - 40 cm Sum 10 - 120 cm Increase in water level: Effect of changes in local winds (2100 – Now) Expected increase in sea level by yr. 2100

  • K. S. Madsen, Recent and future climatic changes in

temperature, salinity, and sea level of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. PhD thesis, 2009, pp. 1-149. Danish energy agency, see http://www.klimatilpasning.dk

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Upcoming ecological studies

  • Biodiversity and habitats in future Baltic

climate scenarios (by Karsten Dahl, Alf Josefson, Cordula

Göke, Jesper Philip Aagaard Christensen, Jørgen Hansen – all DMI)

  • Baltic fish stocks and fisheries (by H. Peltonen, SYKE)
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  • 1. Biodiversity and habitats in future

Baltic climate scenarios

  • Topics:

Climate change related effects on the eutrophication state of the Baltic Sea Temperature effect on nutrient concentrations in estuaries – less nitrogen and more phosphorous  Reactions of plankton to anthropogenic climate change in the Baltic Sea Scenarios of fauna and flora changes due to climate warming in the Baltic Sea - effects of decreased salinity and spreading of hypoxia

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  • 1. Biodiversity and habitats in future

Baltic climate scenarios

  • Topics:

Effects of increasing temperature on selected macroalgel species Expected global change effects on seaweed forests Global change effect on eelgrass communities Expected effects on biota by hazardous substances in a future climate (case study from Lithuania)

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  • 2. The Baltic Sea fish stocks and

fisheries

  • Topics:

Are the marine fish populations of the Baltic Sea unique? Climate change and ecosystem regime shifts Climate changes and zooplankton production Consequences of climate change on fish stocks (cod, sprat and herring) Adaptation measures

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Baltadapt Climate Info

Baltadapt Climate Info – The Baltic Sea in a future climate (WP 4, Develop a knowledge base) #1 Air temperature #2 Precipitation #3 Wind #4 Sea level #5 Oxygen content #6 Salinity #7 Water temperature #8 Biodiversity and habitats #9 Biological production #10 Wind-generated waves #11 River discharge #12 Nutrient loads #13 Eutrophication #14 Sea ice Available at www.baltadapt.eu

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Thank you!

susanne.altvater@ecologic.eu Ecologic Institute, Pfalzburger Str. 43-44, D-10717 Berlin phone +49 (30) 86880-0, fax +49 (30) 86880-100 www.ecologic.eu