Challenges and Opportunities in ICT Challenges and Opportunities in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The International Workshop on The International Workshop on Convergent Technologies Convergent Technologies Oulu Oulu, June 2005 , June 2005

Challenges and Opportunities in ICT Challenges and Opportunities in ICT a European perspective a European perspective

• Dr. Joao Schwarz
• Dr. Joao Schwarz da

da Silva Silva Director Director-

• INFSO

INFSO-

• D

D European Commission European Commission

Contents Contents

• Key Challenges Ahead

Key Challenges Ahead

– – User expectations User expectations – – Convergence Convergence – – Wireless evolution Wireless evolution – – The scale of networking The scale of networking – – Interoperability Interoperability – – Explosion of devices and data Explosion of devices and data – – Vulnerability and Privacy Vulnerability and Privacy – – The new wave of media The new wave of media – – The new shape of innovation The new shape of innovation

• The 7th Framework Programme

The 7th Framework Programme

• Conclusions

Conclusions

Worldwide I CT market, 2004 Worldwide I CT market, 2004-

• 2006, in %

2006, in %

Worldwide Market Value 2005: 2,044 billion Euro Worldwide Market Value 2005: 2,044 billion Euro EU share 620 billion Euro EU share 620 billion Euro

User Expectations User Expectations

• All-in-one device: convergence or divergence of applications?
• Quality of Experience: devices with intuitive, flexible, interactive and enabling

interfaces, active guidance, personalised services, context awareness, price not an issue if the service proposition is compelling.

• Life assistant services: citizens wish to remain independent and mobile even

in advanced years.

• Privacy safeguarding: requirements will increase in reaction to the growing

possibilities of information interception and user profiling (location awareness and identity).

• Security technology: is demanded by users to cope with tracking services

and surveillance systems

The user does not wish to be The user does not wish to be considered exclusively as considered exclusively as a consumer. a consumer.

Office Computer Home Office Phone

Challenges: Challenges: Bridging the gap from technological availability to actual marke Bridging the gap from technological availability to actual market t take take-

• up

up Creating opportunities for user Creating opportunities for user-

• based innovation

based innovation

The world of Convergence The world of Convergence

Each Each island island offers

• ffers

numerous numerous services on services on distinct devices distinct devices CE CE Pre-Recorded Content Personal Media MOBILE MOBILE Com m unication, Entertainm ent, Pictures and Video BROADCAST BROADCAST Services, Entertainm ent BROADBAND BROADBAND Com m unication, Entertainm ent, E-Business

Simple Networks Service Enabled Networks

A converged archipelago A converged archipelago

• ffers all services on all
• ffers all services on all

devices devices

Challenges: Challenges: Providing end Providing end-

• to

to-

• end service at minimal OPEX and CAPEX

end service at minimal OPEX and CAPEX Ensuring the creation and management of convergence Ensuring the creation and management of convergence Moving from product supply to solution provision Moving from product supply to solution provision

Wireless Evolution Wireless Evolution

Focus: User User-

• content

content

>Broadband >New Services >Efficiency

Focus: Bandwidth Bandwidth

Subscribers

Voice

>Coverage >Mobility

Focus: Coverage Coverage

>Voice Quality >Portability >Capacity

Focus: Growth Growth

>Scalability >Ubiquity >Price >QoE

> Simplicity > Performance > Service Richness

>Security/trust >Price

Global B3G activities Global B3G activities

China

• 3G licenses not yet granted
• Research on beyond 3G in 863

FuTURE Project

• Joint Research Center Shanghai

Korea

• Reluctant with wide-spread 3G

deployment

• HPI / WiBro (WiMAX derivative) under

development (3.5G)

• Research on systems beyond 3G

Japan

• 3G deployment (cdma2000, WCDMA)
• Enhancements of 3G
• Research on systems beyond 3G
• DoCoMo proposal Super 3G

CJK – China, Japan, Korea

• Cooperation on government level, one

working group on mobile communication

• Cooperation between SDOs

Dominated by global IT industry

• IEEE activities in
• IEEE 802.11a, b, g, h, n
• IEEE 802.15
• IEEE 802.16, a, d, e
• IEEE 802.20
• IEEE 802.21
• Claims from start-ups and IT companies

to provide 4G solutions

• Flarion (Fast Low Latency Access with

Seamless Handoff and OFDM)

• Arraycomm – advanced antenna technology

and SDMA

• Navini Networks – Advanced beamforming

technology for range & coverage

• IP Wireless – TD-CDMA with IP core network
• Aperto Networks – Fixed Broadband

Wireless Access vendor

• Redline Communications – Fixed BWA
• Airspan – Fixed BWA
• Alvarion – Fixed BWA
• Intel – Active in 802.16 development and its

promotion in WiMAX

• Many activities are on short-range and WLAN

enhancements

Globally

• ITU-R Framework

Recommendation

• WWRF, since 2001

Europe

• UMTS
• UMTS enhancements
• Research on systems

beyond 3G in FP6

Where should we go next? Where should we go next?

1 0.1 Information Speed (Mbit/s) 10 100 B3G/4G

Nomadic Wireless Access W-LAN

3.5G 3G Mobility

• High-speed
• High-capacity
• Low bit cost
• IP-based

2 G

4G Access in broad sense

Broadband connectivity

Ubiquity

Near Field Comm. net Near Field Comm. net

S e n s

• r

n e t S e n s

• r

n e t R F

• I

D n e t R F

• I

D n e t A d h

• c

n e t A d h

• c

n e t

There is life at the edge of the network There is life at the edge of the network

Wireless pervasiveness Wireless pervasiveness

B3G Radio Access B3G Mobile Network

Short Range World Short Range World

Networks with low performance devices (e.g. RF tags and sensors)

Mobile World Mobile World

Networks with high performance devices (e.g. home appliances)

Mobile NW

Short range Local NW

Mobile-Short range NW

Mobile Edge Mobile Edge

Networking convergence Networking convergence

River sensor Bridge sensor Highway sensor Ocean sensor Nuclear sensor

C o m m . T o w e r

C o m m . T o w e r

Home sensor

WPAN

Health sensor

Cargo sensor

DMB DTV DVB-H DTV

(IP based core network)

Wire -line xDSL Wire -line xDSL Cellular GSM-3G 4G WLAN New radio New radio interface interface New radio New radio interface interface

Should the infrastructure be separated from the services? Should the infrastructure be separated from the services?

Services convergence Services convergence

Anywhere

3D TV games games Computer Computer

Anytime

Mobile terminal HDTV PC HDTV HDTV DVB-H terminal Satellite Satellite Cable Cable Wired/wireless Wired/wireless Terrestrial Terrestrial Home gateway

3D A/V Any device Interactive service

Music Multimedia AV program

Content Content Which regulatory approach is best suited to a converged world? Which regulatory approach is best suited to a converged world?

The scale of networking The scale of networking

The wide area networks of yesterday (eg: GSM)

> A Million nodes @ €50k

The Nomadic local area networks of today (eg: WiFi)

> Millions of Nodes @ €100

The Sensor and Personal area network of tomorrow

> Billions of Nodes @ €1 Challenges: Challenges:

• Removing social, geographical, economic and capacity

Removing social, geographical, economic and capacity impediments through impediments through the provision of cost effective the provision of cost effective infrastructures, allowing an infrastructures, allowing an “ “Always on Always on” ” network existence. network existence.

• Contributing to accrued facilities based competition.

Contributing to accrued facilities based competition.

Explosion of Devices and Data Explosion of Devices and Data

• Information explosion and

Information explosion and

• verload
• verload
• Number of communicating

Number of communicating data devices growing from data devices growing from 2.4 billion to 23 billion in 2.4 billion to 23 billion in 2008 and one trillion by 2012 2008 and one trillion by 2012

Challenges: Challenges:

• Designing and managing an information infrastructure where all

Designing and managing an information infrastructure where all devices communicate with and understand one another devices communicate with and understand one another

• Creating an advanced digital eco

Creating an advanced digital eco-

• system for the agile enterprise

system for the agile enterprise

Amount of data received or transmitted (in Petabytes/Day)

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Computers Industrial Automobile Mobile Entertainment

Deep Networking Deep Networking

• Small, inexpensive, low

Small, inexpensive, low-

• powered sensors and actuators, deeply

powered sensors and actuators, deeply embedded into the physical environment in very large numbers, embedded into the physical environment in very large numbers, interacting and forming wired and wireless networks to communica interacting and forming wired and wireless networks to communicate, te, adapt, act, respond, and coordinate high adapt, act, respond, and coordinate high-

• level tasks.

level tasks.

• As these micro devices are networked, the Internet will be pushe

As these micro devices are networked, the Internet will be pushed d deeper than the current network edge. This will enable a hundred deeper than the current network edge. This will enable a hundredfold fold increase in the size of the Internet. increase in the size of the Internet. Challenges: Challenges: New methods of networking devices to one another and to the New methods of networking devices to one another and to the Internet must be developed. Internet must be developed.

I nteroperability I nteroperability

• At the Network/Device Level

At the Network/Device Level

– Wireless/Mobile/Fixed/Cable/ISP/Broadcasting networks need to interoperate

• At the Service/application Level

At the Service/application Level

– Services need to run across homogeneous or heterogeneous networks

• At the Media/Content Level

At the Media/Content Level

– Different media formats must coexist

Challenges: Challenges: Ensuring smooth technological transitions Ensuring smooth technological transitions Creating opportunities for disruption and innovation Creating opportunities for disruption and innovation Contributing to setting the right collaborative standards Contributing to setting the right collaborative standards Optimising for innovation through a more agile IP regime Optimising for innovation through a more agile IP regime

Vulnerability and Privacy Vulnerability and Privacy

• Increased connectivity,

Increased connectivity, diversity of devices, global diversity of devices, global resource sharing and richer resource sharing and richer applications increase applications increase complexity, amplifying the complexity, amplifying the vulnerability of the network vulnerability of the network and escalating the privacy and escalating the privacy concerns. concerns.

– – 150 Zombies a week 150 Zombies a week – – 60% of all e 60% of all e-

• mail is spam

mail is spam – – 80% of all PCs infested with 80% of all PCs infested with malware malware

Challenges: Challenges:

• Pervasive connectivity will increase

Pervasive connectivity will increase vulnerability and privacy vulnerability and privacy concerns, requiring radically new software solutions, concerns, requiring radically new software solutions,

• Establishment of

Establishment of “ “trusted trusted” ” devices, servers and gateways will be devices, servers and gateways will be required to accommodate dynamic network infrastructure and provi required to accommodate dynamic network infrastructure and provide de end end-

• to

to-

• end security,

end security,

• Containing the damage caused to businesses by

Containing the damage caused to businesses by malware malware, , including the cost of fixing systems and lost revenue. including the cost of fixing systems and lost revenue.

1995 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ‘04 $20 billion 15 10 5

Annual losses

Storing your life. Today: Storing your life. Today: Gmail Gmail

• Free, search-based webmail service with 2,000 megabytes (2 gigabyte) of
• storage. Google search quickly recalls any message you have ever sent
• r received. No more need to file messages to find them again.
• All replies to each retrieved email are automatically displayed

(“threaded”). Relevant text ads and links to related web pages are displayed adjacent to email messages.

Tomorrow: Tomorrow: Lifelogs Lifelogs

• Gmail preserves, for the first time, everything we’ve ever typed.

Gmailers are all bloggers (who don’t know it).

• Next, we’ll store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve

ever seen. This storage (and processing, and bandwidth) makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed.

Dark (Peer Dark (Peer-

• to

to-

• peer) Networking

peer) Networking

The Darknet and the Future of Content Distribution Peter Biddle, Paul England, Marcus Peinado, and Bryan Willman Microsoft Corporation

• The

The darknet darknet is not a separate physical network but an application and proto is not a separate physical network but an application and protocol layer col layer riding on existing networks. riding on existing networks.

• There will be short

There will be short-

• term impediments to the effectiveness of the

term impediments to the effectiveness of the darknet darknet as a as a distribution mechanism, ( distribution mechanism, (BitTorrent BitTorrent Exeem Exeem) )

• Napster,

Napster, Kazaa Kazaa, , Morpheus Morpheus, , edonkey edonkey, Bit Torrent , Bit Torrent… …. Grouper . Grouper (file sharing between friends)

(file sharing between friends)

• Will

Will peercasting peercasting end end-

• up replacing broadcasting?

up replacing broadcasting?

• Does DRM for video need to look like DRM for music?

Does DRM for video need to look like DRM for music?

• Will the content industry as we know it, evaporate one day?

Will the content industry as we know it, evaporate one day?

As encrypted networks grows in popularity, is there a danger that these so-called darknets will replace bigger and bigger chunks of the Internet? It's not a danger - it's a requirement. Historically, corporations had physical walls. Firewalls try to emulate them, but it's not the way we work anymore. We need virtual boundaries around our workgroups - which may include a lot of people from other

• rganizations - not around corporations. The only way

to accomplish that is with darknets.

Ray Ozzie , Groove Networks Wired , Issue 12.08 - August 2004

Radio on the Net Radio on the Net

"I know personally for a fact that various members of the movie industry are really getting interested in how to use the Internet as a distributed method for distributing content," Vinton Cerf , 14 April 2005

http://www.stationripper.com/ http://www.mercora.com/ http://www.replay-radio.com/

1.

• 1. Record Internet radio broadcasts

Record Internet radio broadcasts 2.

• 2. Create high quality MP3 files

Create high quality MP3 files 3.

• 3. Automatically burn Audio CDs

Automatically burn Audio CDs 4.

• 4. etc.

etc.

Video on the Net Video on the Net

Content Value Chain Content Value Chain

User Creator Distributor Producer Any technology disruption gives rise to change in the Any technology disruption gives rise to change in the value chain. value chain.

Intellectual Property Rights? Intellectual Property Rights? Private Copy? Private Copy? Free or paid? Free or paid? Advertising? Advertising? Delivery Channel? Delivery Channel?

Search challenges Search challenges

What are the likely effects of UWB on the IT industry? Who was the finish person I met in Oulu in a panel chaired by Ian? Get me the video of the presentation of Ian at IWCT05. How will we ensure the cultural and linguistic diversity of Euro How will we ensure the cultural and linguistic diversity of Europe? pe?

Virtual/ augmented reality Virtual/ augmented reality

http://www.mmorpg.com/ , http://www.ncsoft.net/eng/index.asp , http://www.lineage2.co.kr/

Challenges: Challenges: Which legal regime applies to the virtual world? Which legal regime applies to the virtual world? Can virtual possessions be traded in the real world? Can virtual possessions be traded in the real world?

The new shape of innovation The new shape of innovation

Challenges: Challenges:

• Moving beyond an industrial or information economy to the

Moving beyond an industrial or information economy to the creation of an advanced innovation eco creation of an advanced innovation eco-

• system capable of

system capable of coping with the speed of change coping with the speed of change

• Creating change as the best means to manage it

Creating change as the best means to manage it

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Month Since Launch M illio n s o f U s e rs

Skype Kazaa ICQ Hotmail

15 k/day 30 k/day 100 k/day 50 k/day

67 52 5,5 61

20 40 60 80 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04*

Digital “Analog”

52 61

174 Million mobile phones with built in cameras will be sold in 2004

As of April 2005, Skype has more than 35 million registered users and is adding more than 155,000 new users per day. On average, 2 million people are simultaneously using Skype. 100 Million Skype downloads.

We tend think of a future period at today’s rate of progress…

• ur memories are

dominated by

• ur recent experience.

But we are doubling our rate of progress every ten years… So in this century we will experience 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate.

Power of technology progress Power of technology progress

We dramatically underestimate the power of future technology progress:

FP7 FP7 – – Collaborative Research Collaborative Research – – Themes Themes

Health: 8373 m€ (18%) Food, agri, biotech: 2472 m€ (6%)

ICT: 12756 m€ (28.5%)

Nano, materials, production: 4865 m€ (11%) Energy: 2951 m€ (7%) Environment: 2552 m€ (6%) Transport: 5981 m€ (13%) Socio-econ research: 798 m€ (2%) Space and security: 3987 m€ (9%)

Conclusion Conclusion

• The EU Framework Programme seeks to

The EU Framework Programme seeks to permit our enterprises and our creators to permit our enterprises and our creators to establish and/or access, under the best establish and/or access, under the best economic conditions, new world markets: economic conditions, new world markets:

– – By anticipating the likely technological disruptions By anticipating the likely technological disruptions – – By nurturing technological development and By nurturing technological development and innovation innovation – – By creating the right synergies between the key stake By creating the right synergies between the key stake-

• holders

holders – – By establishing the conditions for new value chain By establishing the conditions for new value chain actors to emerge actors to emerge – – By stimulating innovative usages By stimulating innovative usages – – By shedding light into the new world markets By shedding light into the new world markets

Final word Final word

“ “The problem in times of The problem in times of turbulence is not the turbulence is not the turbulence; it is acting with turbulence; it is acting with yesterday yesterday’ ’s logic. s logic.” ”

Peter Drucker

If you If you’ ’re trying to look far re trying to look far ahead, and what you see ahead, and what you see seems like science fiction, seems like science fiction, it might be wrong. it might be wrong. But if it doesn But if it doesn’ ’t seem like t seem like science fiction, it science fiction, it’ ’s s definitely wrong. definitely wrong.

Christine Peterson, Foresight Institute