CE & CLE FAQs are available under the Texas TIPS tab at - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CE & CLE FAQs are available under the Texas TIPS tab at - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 07, 2023 210 likes •1.02k views

CE & CLE FAQs are available under the Texas TIPS tab at www.stewart.com/texas If you have questions after the presentation, please e- mail the presenter or your favorite Texas underwriting counsel. In order to obtain a CE

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CE & CLE FAQs are available under the Texas TIPS tab at www.stewart.com/texas

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  • If you have questions after the presentation, please e-

mail the presenter or your favorite Texas underwriting counsel.

  • In order to obtain a CE Certificate or CLE Credit, you

must listen to the webinar for a minimum of 55 minutes, obtain the password provided at the end of the presentation and follow the instructions as given.

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SLIDE 3

ATTORNEY INFORMATION

Because of opinions expressed by the Texas Department of Insurance (TDI) concerning rebates, legal credit is available only to:  Attorneys who own title agencies that are Stewart Title Guaranty Agents  Attorneys employed by a title insurance agent licensed with Stewart Title Guaranty or Stewart entities  Fee attorneys who have an Escrow Officer license through a Stewart Title Agent or Stewart entity We welcome any other lawyers to listen, but cannot provide continuing education credit to you.

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Ted Jones on Texas Economic Forecast

By: Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist Stewart Title Guaranty Company July 20, 2017
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SLIDE 8

Things Change

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76 Million Boomers 83 Million Millennials 19 to 35 91 Million Millennials 16 to 35

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SLIDE 15

500 Millennial Poll Results

75 Percent Could Live Without the Call Function

  • n Their Device
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500 Millennial Poll Results

76 Percent Prefer Texting To Talking as it Fits Better in Their Schedule

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SLIDE 17

500 Millennial Poll Results

63 Percent State Texting Is Less Disruptive Thank Talking

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SLIDE 18

500 Millennial Poll Results

19 Percent Admitted to Never Checking Voice Mails

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SLIDE 19

Twitter witter @DrT DrTCJ CJ

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SLIDE 20

49% LIV IVING AT HOME

Millennial Study

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SLIDE 21

Soon-to-Happen Tax Changes?????

  • Corporate Tax Cut 35 Percent to 15 Percent
  • US Overseas Corporate Profit Repatriation
  • Carried Interest Elimination
  • ObamaCare 3.8% Investment Income Tax Cut
  • Capital Gains Tax Cut
  • Middle Class Tax Changes – Some Up, Some Down
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SLIDE 22

Germany 42.2% 35.0% U.S. France 37.8% 34.4% France Italy 37.0% 30.0% Australia U.S. 35.0% 27.5% Italy Spain 25.0% 25.0% Spain Australia 34.0% 23.3% Japan Japan 30.0% 22.0% S Korea U.K 30.0% 20.0% U.K. Canada 29.1% 15.8% Germany S Korea 28.0% 15.0% Canada

OECD Corporate Tax Rates

2000 2016

Germany 2,640 Basis Point Decline 62.6 Percent Tax Cut

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SLIDE 23

Germany 42.2% 35.0% U.S. France 37.8% 34.4% France Italy 37.0% 30.0% Australia U.S. 35.0% 27.5% Italy Spain 25.0% 25.0% Spain Australia 34.0% 23.3% Japan Japan 30.0% 22.0% S Korea U.K 30.0% 20.0% U.K. Canada 29.1% 15.8% Germany S Korea 28.0% 15.0% Canada

OECD Corporate Tax Rates

2000 2016

Canada 1,410 Basis Point Decline 48.4 Percent Tax Cut

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SLIDE 24

Germany 42.2% 35.0% U.S. France 37.8% 34.4% France Italy 37.0% 30.0% Australia U.S. 35.0% 27.5% Italy Spain 25.0% 25.0% Spain Australia 34.0% 23.3% Japan Japan 30.0% 22.0% S Korea U.K 30.0% 20.0% U.K. Canada 29.1% 15.8% Germany S Korea 28.0% 15.0% Canada

OECD Corporate Tax Rates

2000 2016

U.K. 1,010 Basis Point Decline 33.3 Percent Tax Cut

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SLIDE 25

Mega Themes - 2017

  • More Jobs Than Ever in History
  • Retail Boom – 14 Years to Run
  • Entry Level Homebuyers Returning
  • High-End Housing Retreating
  • Inflation Potential -- UPS +4.9% Dec 26th
  • Commercial Sales Cooling
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SLIDE 26

2016 US Stock Market Performance 13%+ Dow Jones Industrial 9.5% S&P500 7.5% Nasdaq Composite 8.5% Gold 14.9% Silver 45.2% Crude Oil

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SLIDE 27 125 130 135 140 145 150 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

U.S. Jobs

Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted

1.55% Prior 12 Months 2.238 Million Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months
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SLIDE 28

U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Jobs

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5

Recession Millions of Jobs Seasonally-Adjusted

+2.01% Past 12 Months

The Blood Pressure Test of the U.S. Economy

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SLIDE 29 $20 $21 $22 $23 $24 $25 $26 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings

$US Per Hour

+2.5% Latest 12-Months
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SLIDE 30 Utah 3.28% North Carolina 1.60% New Jersey 1.06% Florida 2.73% South Carolina 1.60% Iowa 0.97% Nevada 2.71% Maryland 1.60% Pennsylvania 0.92% Idaho 2.43% New York 1.59% New Mexico 0.89% Colorado 2.40% Montana 1.58% Delaware 0.89% Oregon 2.37% California 1.47% Ohio 0.75% Georgia 2.36% Rhode Island 1.45% Connecticut 0.66% Washington 2.36% Dist of Columbia 1.43% Illinois 0.58% Texas 2.22% New Hampshire 1.43% Maine 0.55% Tennessee 1.95% Wisconsin 1.39% Vermont 0.54% Arizona 1.83% Kentucky 1.38% Louisiana 0.48% Alabama 1.82% Indiana 1.36% Mississippi 0.23% Arkansas 1.80% Hawaii 1.25% Oklahoma 0.15% Michigan 1.73% South Dakota 1.25% Kansas
  • 0.26%
Missouri 1.66% Nebraska 1.15% Alaska
  • 0.87%
Minnesota 1.65% Virginia 1.14% West Virginia
  • 0.97%
Massachusetts 1.64% North Dakota 1.11% Wyoming
  • 1.38%
Job Growth Rates - 12 Months Ending May 2017
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SLIDE 31
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SLIDE 32 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Texas Jobs

Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted

2.22% Prior 12 Months 266,600 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months
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SLIDE 33 Percent MSA-Division Change New Total Abilene 1.04% 0.7 67.8 Amarillo 1.41% 1.7 121.9 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos 2.84% 28.3 1,023.1 Beaumont-Port Arthur
  • 0.24%
(0.4) 163.0 Brownsville - Harlingen 2.06% 2.9 143.6 College Station - Bryan 2.38% 2.7 116.2 Corpus Christi 1.89% 3.6 194.0 Dallas-Ft Worth-Arlington 3.17% 110.8 3,602.4 Dallas-Plano-Irving Metro Div 3.46% 86.1 2,571.7

Job Growth 12 Months Ending May 2017

12-Months Jobs-Thousands
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SLIDE 34 Percent MSA-Division Change New Total El Paso 2.72% 8.4 316.8 Ft Worth-Arlington Metro Div. 2.55% 25.7 1,032.0 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land 1.70% 51.0 3,048.3 Killeen-Temple 2.86% 4.1 147.3 Laredo 2.46% 2.5 104.2 Longview
  • 0.72%
(0.7) 96.5 Lubbock 0.89% 1.3 147.3 McAllen Edinburg-Mission 2.18% 5.5 257.5 Midland 1.38% 1.2 88.4

Job Growth 12 Months Ending May 2017

12-Months Jobs-Thousands
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SLIDE 35 Percent MSA-Division Change New Total Odessa 0.00%
  • 69.8
San Angelo
  • 0.61%
(0.3) 48.9 San Antonio-New Braunfels 2.21% 22.4 1,034.6 Sherman-Denison 1.95% 0.9 47.1 Texarkana
  • 0.99%
(0.6) 60.3 Tyler 2.59% 2.7 106.8 Victoria 0.48% 0.2 42.2 Waco 1.01% 1.2 119.6 Wichita Falls
  • 0.69%
(0.4) 57.3

Job Growth 12 Months Ending May 2017

12-Months Jobs-Thousands
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SLIDE 36

Existing Home Sales & Median Prices

Sales Trailing 12 Months

$175 $200 $225 $250 '14 '15 '16 '17 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6

Median Price Homes Sales

Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales 12-Months Millions

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SLIDE 37

Texas Home Sales & Median Prices

Sales Trailing 12 Months

$160 $170 $180 $190 $200 $210 $220 $230 14 '15 '16 '17 280 290 300 310 320 330 340

Median Price Homes Sales

Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales 12-Months Thousands

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SLIDE 38

Housing Sales

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/

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SLIDE 39

Texas Residential Building Permits

40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 240,000 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Single Family Multi

Number of Dwelling Units

165,269 Permits is the past 12 Months, 266,600 Net New Jobs 1.61 Net New Jobs Per New Dwelling Unit 2017 Latest 12 Months
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Percent Cumulative Year Population Change Growth 2015 27,695,284 2020 30,541,978 10.28% 10.28% 2025 33,699,307 10.34% 21.68% 2030 37,155,084 10.25% 34.16% 2035 40,892,255 10.06% 47.65% 2040 44,955,896 9.94% 62.32% 2045 49,416,165 9.92% 78.43% 2050 54,369,297 10.02% 96.31% Source: Texas State Data Center

Texas Population Forecast

Growth Scenario Migration = 2000-2010
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SLIDE 41 Texas Percent Cumulative Hispanic Percent Cumulative Percent Year Population Change Growth Population Change Growth Hispanic 2015 27,695,284 11,084,763 40.0% 2020 30,541,978 10.28% 10.28% 12,968,026 16.99% 16.99% 42.5% 2025 33,699,307 10.34% 21.68% 15,135,957 16.72% 36.55% 44.9% 2030 37,155,084 10.25% 34.16% 17,575,656 16.12% 58.56% 47.3% 2035 40,892,255 10.06% 47.65% 20,248,388 15.21% 82.67% 49.5% 2040 44,955,896 9.94% 62.32% 23,156,968 14.36% 108.91% 51.5% 2045 49,416,165 9.92% 78.43% 26,342,195 13.75% 137.64% 53.3% 2050 54,369,297 10.02% 96.31% 29,859,012 13.35% 169.37% 54.9% Source: Texas State Data Center Texas Population Forecast Texas Hispanics Growth Scenario Migration = 2000-2010
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SLIDE 42 http://hispanicwealthproject.org/state-of-hispanic-homeownership-report/
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Household Debt Service as a Percent of Household Disposable Income

9 10 11 12 13 14 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Percent

FED Board of Governors, BEA
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SLIDE 48 $150 $160 $170 $180 $190 $200 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

U.S. Real Retail & Food Service Sales

$ Billions – Seasonally Adjusted

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Percent Millennial Shopping Done in Stores

70%

CBRE Millennial Study
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Millennial Study

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Retail

  • Department Store – Four Letter Words
  • Over Retailed
  • Hybrid-Use of Online Sales
  • Industrial Property Impact
  • Grocery Stores New Mall Anchor

20+ Anchor 20,000+ Square Feet Vacancies in Reno

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SLIDE 53 Basis Months Number Points Duration Increases Increase June 2004 - June 2006 25 17 425 June 1999 - May 2000 12 6 175 March 1997 1 1 25 February 1994 - Feb 1995 13 7 300 Average 231.25 Median 237.5 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Fed Funds Target Rate Increases

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SLIDE 54 10-Year Treasury 1.81% 30-Year Residential 3.54% Lower Quartile 115.6 1/3rd 173.4 Median Quartile 231.3

Current Rates

Rate Increase Impact - Basis Points

12-18 Month Outlook Lower Quartile 2.97% 1/3rd 3.54% Median Quartile 4.12% Lower Quartile 4.71% 1/3rd 5.28% Median Quartile 5.86% * 30-Year Residential = 10-Yr +174 bp 30-Year Residential Rates 12-18 Months Treasury Forecasts 12-18 Months

Rates November 1, 2016

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Federal Debt – Total Public Debt

3 5 8 10 13 15 18 20 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

$ Trillions

St Louis Federal reserve
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SLIDE 56

Federal Debt as a Percent of GDP

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Percent

St Louis Federal reserve Think About the 125% Debt Coverage Ratio of Commercial Loans
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Federal Debt Interest Payments In March 2017 30% Greater Than March 2016

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U.S. 1st Half 2017 Commercial Real Estate Sales 2017 vs 2016

  • 21.2%
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SLIDE 60 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume

$ Billions – Quarterly

Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up Q2 2017 Preliminary -27.3% Year-Over-Year 1st Half 2017 -21.2 Percent Year-Over-Year
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SLIDE 61 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Texas Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume

$ Billions – Quarterly

Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up Q2 2017 Preliminary -2.2% Year-Over-Year 1st Half 2017 -2.0 Percent Year-Over-Year
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19 Days

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Days to Drill & Fracture 30 Months Ago -- 40 Days Now – 19 Days

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SLIDE 66 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 4-Jan-02 6-Dec-02 7-Nov-03 8-Oct-04 9-Sep-05 11-Aug-06 13-Jul-07 13-Jun-08 15-May-09 16-Apr-10 18-Mar-11 17-Feb-12 18-Jan-13 20-Dec-13 21-Nov-14 23-Oct-15 23-Sep-16

North American Drilling Rig Counts

Number of Operating Rigs

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SLIDE 67

$550

Savings Per Driver

Vs 2014

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2017 Issues, Positives & Concerns

  • Return of ARMs & Second Loans
  • Faltering High-End Residential Sales
  • Retracting Commercial Sales
  • Inflation – UPS +4.9% December 26th
  • Midwest Land Values
  • Oil Sub-$60
  • …….

Tax Law Changes Will Alter

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Twitter DrTCJ

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http://blog.stewart.com/ted

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Things Change

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Thinking Big

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Per the TDI and the State Bar, in order to

  • btain a CE Certificate or CLE Credit, you

must listen to the webinar for a minimum

  • f 55 minutes, obtain the password

provided at the end of the presentation and follow the instructions as given.

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SLIDE 76

To Receive CE Credit

Each individual seeking credit hours must send their own certificate request to: CEcertificate@stewart.com Please include the following information:
  • Provide only this Presentation Name in the Subject Line of your e-mail – “Texas Economic Forecast”
In the body of your e-mail:
  • Name of Participant (as it appears on your Escrow Officer License);
  • Presentation PASSWORD given at the end of the webinar;
  • License Number Only (located on left side of Escrow Officer Certificate of License – for example: License
Number: 1234567-890123) For Attorney CLE Credit also include:
  • Texas State Bar Number
  • Affiliation with Stewart
– Employed by Stewart Title Guaranty Company; – an affiliate; or – a Stewart agent

For more details, see the CE and CLE FAQs at:

http://www.stewart.com/en/stg/texas/education/texas-tips/ce-cle-faqs.html
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SLIDE 77

Please contact us ONLY if you haven’t received your certificate within 10 business days at: CEcertificate@stewart.com

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SLIDE 78

Next Month’s Texas TIPS Online presentation is

August 17, 2017

“2017 Legislation”

presented by:

John Rothermel

For Questions/Comments Email john.rothermel@stewart.com
  • r
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