Catastrophes naturelles et interruption dactivit Yanos Zylberberg - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Catastrophes naturelles et interruption d’activité

Yanos Zylberberg

CREI - Pompeu Fabra

Gestion et mesure des risques environnementaux, 24 jan. 2012

1/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Compta!

Fonction de production: Yt = AtKα

t L1−α t

Theorie: yi

t = dYt,t−1

Yt−1 = dAt,t−1 At−1 + αdKt,t−1 Kt−1 + (1 − α)dLt,t−1 Lt−1 Empirique: yi

t = βd

• di

t − E

• di

t

• + ˜

yi

t + εi t

2/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Stratégies empiriques

Equation: yi

t = βddi t + βppi t + βxXt−1 + νi + γt + εi t

Identification:    di

t = αeei t + αppi t + αxXt−1 + ρi + δt + µi t

(1) yi

t = βd

di

t + βppi t + βxXt−1 + νi + γt + εi t

(2) (S) Xt−1= Gross capital formation, current account, exports, government consumption and reserves

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Contribution

Machine de guerre!

30000 catastrophes: exhaustif.

mesures objectives. Interpretation Littérature: Strobl (2011), Noy (2009), Raddatz (2009)

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Sources (180 pays, 1980-2006)

yi

t:

World Development Indicators di

t:

EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database ei

t:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center et PREVIEW Global Cyclones Asymmetric Wind speed Profile USGS et National Geophysical Data Center Gridded Population of the World (CIESIN)

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Dataclysm (180 pays, 1980-2006)

Figure: Cyclones depuis 1980 et densité de population en 2000

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Construction

Dans une zone ζ: densité de energie e Mesure locale:

de if e ≥ ¯ e

Mesure aggrégée:

• 1e≥¯

ededζ

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Description - carte

100 pays, 500 cyclones and 600 tremblements de terre

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Description - table

VARIABLES Unaffected Cyclones Earthquakes Both Countries 91 46 34 39 Population (’000 000, 2006) 1’019 1’016 414 4’056 GDP per capita (2006) 14737 9496 15584 7297 Private credit (% GDP , 2006) 43.43 54.80 79.11 57.36 Agriculture (% GDP , 2006) 14.51 15.76 12.24 11.63 Manufacture (% GDP , 2006) 13.42 13.11 13.00 15.74 Industry (% GDP , 2006) 34.77 30.18 25.93 28.78 Reported losses (cyclones) 7.70 4.64 Reported affected (cyclones) 3.01 5.05 Affected (cat. 2 cyclones) 57.52 56.29 Affected (cat. 4 cyclones) 12.66 3.12 Reported losses (quakes) 0.48 0.26 Reported affected (quakes) 1.22 0.40 Affected (VI quakes) 14.64 36.67 Affected (VIII quakes) 0.96 0.91

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Exemples

Country/Year Reports

• Obj. measures

Earthquakes Country Year Losses Affected Thresholds V VII VIII Pakistan 2005 .218 .033 .101 .014 .001 Japan (Kobe) 1995 .019 .004 .649 .100 .017 Salvador 2001 .112 .223 6.89 .293 .038 Chile (Santiago) 1985 .091 .122 7.01 .343 .112 Cyclones Country Year Losses Affected Thresholds 1 3 5 US (Katrina) 2005 .010 .002 .106 .007 .001 US (Andrew) 1992 .008 .006 .152 .034 .004 Honduras (Mitch) 1998 .729 .353 .919 .025 .001 Japan (Songda) 2004 .002 .000 .476 .109 .005

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Cyclones

30%

11/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Tremblements de terre

10%

12/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

VARIABLE Annual damages declared in EM-DAT (% GDP) Energy×density

.00248***

(cyclones) (.00017) s0 .01171*** .00399*** .00552*** .00476*** .00435*** (cyclones) (.00079) (.00099) (.00097) (.00097) (.00095) s1 .02540***

• .00417

.00307 .00336 (cyclones) (.00202) (.00275) (.00283) (.00279) s2 .06465*** .02403*** .02185*** (cyclones) (.00419) (.00592) (.00585) s3 .05998*** .08820*** (cyclones) (.00624) (.00668) s4

• .14950***

(cyclones) (.01364) Energy×density

.00024

(quakes) (.00016) s0 .00078* .00052 .00022 .00040 .00041 (quakes) (.00046) (.00072) (.00070) (.00070) (.00069) s1 .00155 .01031*** .01050*** .01084*** (quakes) (.00271) (.00379) (.00379) (.00374) s2

• .03297***
• .03086***
• .03248***

(quakes) (.01077) (.01104) (.01091) s3

• .02248
• .04354

(quakes) (.02690) (.02920) s4 .10390* (quakes) (.05959)

• Adj. R-squared

.05540 .05779 .08670 .12980 .14550 .16596

p-value(quakes)

.132

.091 .158 .003 .004 .001 p-value(cyclones)

.000

.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 Propensities yes yes yes yes yes yes FE country country country country country country Observations 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Specification (S) - second stage Panel A yt − yt−1 dt (% GDP)

• 0.055
• 0.139
• 0.388
• 0.390***
• 0.374***
• 0.386***

(0.041) (0.322) (0.252) (0.136) (0.134) (0.104) Instruments

• sc,q

sc,q

0,1

sc,q

0,1,2

sc,q

0,1,2,3

sc,q

0,1,2,3,4

Controls

• Observations

5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 Panel B yt − yt−1 dt (% GDP)

• 0.059
• 0.008
• 0.444*
• 0.455***
• 0.444***
• 0.447***

(0.107) (0.310) (0.238) (0.095) (0.093) (0.094) Instruments

• sc,q

sc,q

0,1

sc,q

0,1,2

sc,q

0,1,2,3

sc,q

0,1,2,3,4

Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 Panel C yt dt (% GDP)

• 0.137**

0.054

• 0.133
• 0.200*
• 0.190*
• 0.222**

(0.053) (0.139) (0.124) (0.107) (0.101) (0.099) Instruments

• sc,q

sc,q

0,1

sc,q

0,1,2

sc,q

0,1,2,3

sc,q

0,1,2,3,4

Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Pertes de capital:

y

• .4

= α Y K dd

.05

+ (1 − α)dL L

• + dA

A

• 15/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Pertes de capital:

y

• .4

= α Y K dd

.05

+ (1 − α)dL L

• + dA

A

• 15/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Pertes de capital:

y

• .4

= α Y K dd

.05

+ (1 − α)dL L

• + dA

A

• .35

15/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Rigidités salariales:

dL L = dK K y

• .4

= α Y K dd

.05

+ (1 − α)dL L

• + dA

A

• 16/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Rigidités salariales:

dL L = dK K y

• .4

= α Y K dd

.05

+ (1 − α)dL L

• .10

+ dA A

• 16/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Rigidités salariales:

dL L = dK K y

• .4

= α Y K dd

.05

+ (1 − α)dL L

• .10

+ dA A

• .25

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Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Complementarités sectorielles:

K = 1 Kρ

i di

1/ρ

Avec ρ = 1/2 et un choc concentré sur un secteur:

y

• .4

=

• (1 − α Y

K dd)1/ρ − 1

• .10

+ (1 − α)dL L

• + dA

A

• Le résidu est petit mais ça ressemble à ce qu’on appelle de l’interruption

d’activité...

17/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Complementarités sectorielles:

K = 1 Kρ

i di

1/ρ

Avec ρ = 1/2 et un choc concentré sur un secteur:

y

• .4

=

• (1 − α Y

K dd)1/ρ − 1

• .10

+ (1 − α)dL L

• .20

+ dA A

• Le résidu est petit mais ça ressemble à ce qu’on appelle de l’interruption

d’activité...

17/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence

Complementarités sectorielles:

K = 1 Kρ

i di

1/ρ

Avec ρ = 1/2 et un choc concentré sur un secteur:

y

• .4

=

• (1 − α Y

K dd)1/ρ − 1

• .10

+ (1 − α)dL L

• .20

+ dA A

• .10

Le résidu est petit mais ça ressemble à ce qu’on appelle de l’interruption d’activité...

17/ 18

Strategy Data Resultats Discussion Additional evidence 18/ 18

Merci!

yzylberberg@crei.cat

19/ 18

VARIABLE Annual damages declared in EM-DAT (% GDP) Energy×density .00248*** (cyclones) (.00017) s0 .01173*** .00401*** .00554*** .00478*** .00437*** (cyclones) (.00077) (.00096) (.00094) (.00094) (.00093) s1 .02542***

• .00410

.00311 .00338 (cyclones) (.00196) (.00267) (.00275) (.00271) s2 .06456*** .02409*** .02197*** (cyclones) (.00407) (.00575) (.00568) s3 .05973*** .08790*** (cyclones) (.00606) (.00648) s4

• .14935***

(cyclones) (.01324) Energy×density

• .00017

(quakes) (.00016) s0

• .00042
• .00052
• .00082
• .00063
• .00063

(quakes) (.00045) (.00070) (.00068) (.00068) (.00067) s1 .00072 .00987*** .01016*** .01056*** (quakes) (.00264) (.00368) (.00368) (.00363) s2

• .03453***
• .03184***
• .03344***

(quakes) (.01046) (.01072) (.01059) s3

• .02810
• .03913

(quakes) (.02612) (.02834) s4 .05452 (quakes) (.05784)

• Adj. R-squared

.05959 .06192 .09232 .13762 .15406 .17512 p-value(quakes) .263 .348 .681 .008 .011 .009 p-value(cyclones) .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 Propensities yes yes yes yes yes yes FE country country country country country country Observations 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171

20/ 18

VARIABLE Annual damages declared in EM-DAT (% GDP) Energy×density

• .00000

(cyclones) (.00004) s0

• .00002
• .00002
• .00002
• .00002
• .00002

(cyclones) (.00018) (.00023) (.00023) (.00023) (.00023) s1

• .00002
• .00007
• .00005
• .00002

(cyclones) (.00046) (.00064) (.00067) (.00067) s2 .00009

• .00006
• .00012

(cyclones) (.00098) (.00140) (.00140) s3 .00025 .00030 (cyclones) (.00148) (.00160) s4

• .00015

(cyclones) (.00326) Energy×density .00042*** (quakes) (.00004) s0 .00120*** .00103*** .00104*** .00103*** .00103*** (quakes) (.00010) (.00016) (.00016) (.00017) (.00017) s1 .00083 .00044 .00033 .00028 (quakes) (.00062) (.00089) (.00090) (.00090) s2 .00157 .00097 .00095 (quakes) (.00252) (.00261) (.00261) s3 .00561

• .00442

(quakes) (.00636) (.00698) s4 .04937*** (quakes) (.01425)

• Adj. R-squared

.02283 .02289 .02285 .02253 .02230 .02427 p-value(quakes) .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 p-value(cyclones) .943 .888 .990 .999 .999 1.000 Propensities yes yes yes yes yes yes FE country country country country country country Observations 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171

21/ 18

Specification (S) - second stage Panel A First difference of output growth yt − yt−1 Damages (% GDP) dt

• 0.052
• 0.305
• 0.554*
• 0.472***
• 0.449***
• 0.450***

(0.041) (0.362) (0.305) (0.138) (0.138) (0.110) Instruments

• sc

sc

0,1

sc

0,1,2

sc

0,1,2,3

sc

0,1,2,3,4

Controls

• Observations

5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 Panel B First difference of output growth yt − yt−1 Damages (% GDP) dt

• 0.050
• 0.047
• 0.454*
• 0.455***
• 0.445***
• 0.447***

(0.105) (0.298) (0.247) (0.101) (0.095) (0.096) Instruments

• sc

sc

0,1

sc

0,1,2

sc

0,1,2,3

sc

0,1,2,3,4

Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 Panel C Output growth yt Damages (% GDP) dt

• 0.130**

0.059

• 0.114
• 0.180
• 0.200*
• 0.223**

(0.054) (0.140) (0.126) (0.110) (0.103) (0.101) Instruments

• sc

sc

0,1

sc

0,1,2

sc

0,1,2,3

sc

0,1,2,3,4

Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986

22/ 18

Cyclones Earthquakes PANEL A PANEL B Regressand yt − yt−1 yt − yt−1 yt yt Regressand yt − yt−1 yt − yt−1 yt yt Regressors Regressors s0

• 0.002
• 0.001
• 0.002

0.002 s0 0.001 0.001 0.001

• 0.001

(cyclones) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (quakes) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s1

• 0.014***
• 0.013***
• 0.012
• 0.009

s1

• 0.002
• 0.003
• 0.003
• 0.009

(cyclones) (0.004) (0.004) (0.007) (0.006) (quakes) (0.004) (0.005) (0.007) (0.006) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s2

• 0.031***
• 0.038***
• 0.025*
• 0.030**

s2 0.002

• 0.003
• 0.004
• 0.021

(cyclones) (0.010) (0.011) (0.013) (0.012) (quakes) (0.015) (0.018) (0.028) (0.024) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s3

• 0.040**
• 0.060***
• 0.030
• 0.045**

s3

• 0.033
• 0.038
• 0.012
• 0.036

(cyclones) (0.018) (0.022) (0.019) (0.018) (quakes) (0.030) (0.034) (0.100) (0.081) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s4

• 0.009
• 0.128**

0.008 0.089 s4

• 0.075
• 0.104*
• 0.035
• 0.220

(cyclones) (0.043) (0.060) (0.058) (0.202) (quakes) (0.070) (0.055) (0.255) (0.207) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 Specifications OLS OLS AB AB Specifications OLS OLS AB AB Controls

• yes
• yes

Controls

• yes
• yes

Propensities yes yes yes yes Propensities yes yes yes yes 23/ 18

Panel A Cyclones First difference yt − yt−1 Output growth yt s2

• .034***
• .041***
• .023*
• .027**

(cyclones) (.009) (.011) (.012) (.012) L.s2 .016 .024* .011 .009 (cyclones) (.012) (.014) (.012) (.012) L2.s2

• .029**
• .035**
• .019
• .020

(cyclones) (.012) (.015) (.012) (.012) L3.s2 .017 .024 .000 .001 (cyclones) (.016) (.019) (.012) (.012) L4.s2 .021 .012 .016 .011 (cyclones) (.018) (.015) (.014) (.012) Controls

• yes
• yes

FE

• country

country Observations 4,646 3,651 4,646 3,651 Earthquakes First difference yt − yt−1 Output growth yt s2 0.005

• 0.005
• 0.012
• 0.024

(quakes) (0.017) (0.018) (0.027) (0.023) L.s2

• 0.010
• 0.009
• 0.029
• 0.025

(quakes) (0.017) (0.017) (0.026) (0.022) L2.s2 0.022 0.014

• 0.001
• 0.015

(quakes) (0.017) (0.018) (0.026) (0.021) L3.s2 0.002

• 0.003
• 0.005
• 0.013

(quakes) (0.012) (0.011) (0.026) (0.021) L4.s2 0.016 0.015 0.018 0.011 (quakes) (0.016) (0.017) (0.028) (0.022) Controls

• yes
• yes

FE

• country

country Observations 4,646 3,651 4,646 3,651

24/ 18

Kinetic energy 1

2mv2 (collision completely stops the molecule motion).

The vertical surface associated with a horizontal surface: CddS Number of molecules vdτρ. 1 2ρCdv3dτdS

Table: Choice of parameters’ values for the energy measures Description Parameter Value Units Cyclones Surface drag coefficient Cd 0.47

• Air mass density

ρ 1.2 kg/m3 Threshold cat-0 typhoon v0 17.5 m/s Threshold cat-1 typhoon v1 32.5 m/s Threshold cat-2 typhoon v2 42.5 m/s Threshold cat-3 typhoon v3 49 m/s Threshold cat-4 typhoon v4 58 m/s Threshold cat-5 typhoon v5 69 m/s

• stands for dimensionless quantities.

25/ 18

ln(Y) = F1

• magnitude scaling

+ F2

• core attenuation

+ F3

• basin effect

+ F4

• site conditions

where              F1 = ln [(c1arctan(M + c2) + c3) F] F2 = −0.5ln

• (1 − r/(c4M + c5))2 + 4(c6cos(c7(M + c8)) + c9)2r/(c4M + c5)
• F3 = −0.5ln
• 1 −
• r/r1

2 + 4d2

1

• r/r1
• F4 = S

26/ 18