Canadian Energy History How Stored Energy Built a Northern Nation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Canadian Energy History

How Stored Energy Built a Northern Nation

John Meyer, Canadians for a Sustainable Society, Book: The Renewable Energy Transition, Realities for Canada and the World https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030291143 ISBN 978-3-030-29115-0

Time to get Serious

and use real social and biophysical economic metrics

Pre-Contact Population Density

Population density (net energy proxy) utterly dependent on climate and resources at hand. Most of Canada “empty” for a reason.

Inuit - 1 person/700 sq km Greenland Viking - pop < 5,000 Southern Ontario – 1 person/10 sq km Cohakian Mounds - 2 people/sq km Southern California 1 person / sq km Central America - 100 people per sq km

Process of Development

Steel axes and saws >>> Firewood >>> Heating >>> Settle best farmland Coal >>> Rail Transport >>> Industry, Prairie & Northern Communities Oil >>> Ground and Air transport >>> anywhere anytime capability Electricity >>> Sophisticated industrial capacity, residential and farm comfort anywhere in Canada

Energy Consumption History

Solar Capacity vs Energy Demand for Northern Regions

• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

10 20 30 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average High in Celcius

Monthly Average High Temperature

Igloolik Guadalajara 5 10 15 20 25 January Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Capacity Factor %

Solar Capacity Factor

Igloolik Guadalajara

Degree Days by Latitude

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Heating Degree Days

Heating Degree Days

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 India Brazil Mexico China Spain Japan UK Russia Germany USA Canada Norway

kilo Watt hours per day

Residential Daily Energy Budget

Energy / Capita

Need for Unified Energy Measure to represent daily per capita energy budget

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 India Mexico Brazil China Spain UK Japan Russia Germany USA Norway Canada

kilo Watt hours per day

Total Daily Energy Consumption kWhrs / Capita / Day

Energy / Capita

The Small Problem of Seasonal Storage

• Storage and Investment by Latitude

Annual Budget kWh Storage Required Days Storage Required Annual kWh Size of Array Required kilo Watts Storage Array Total Igloolik

14600 120 4800 63.4 $ 4,080,000 $ 126,736 $ 4,206,736

Calgary

10950 90 2700 27.2 $ 2,295,000 $ 54,315 $ 2,349,315

Victoria

7300 60 1200 17.3 $ 1,020,000 $ 34,564 $ 1,054,564

• St. John's

10950 90 2700 28.5 $ 2,295,000 $ 57,031 $ 2,352,031

Wilmington

4380 4 48 3.2 $ 40,800 $ 6,337 $ 47,137

Guadalajara

1825 0.5 2.5 0.7 $ 2,125 $ 1,302 $ 3,427

EROI - Energy Return on Energy Invested

E-ROY

• Available net energy is the core national determinant of real

wealth creation.

• EROI of oil in the glory days of Texas and Saudi gushers maybe

reached 100:1

• EROI of current world oil industry ~17:1
• Oil Sands ~ 4:1, not including remediation
• Solar ~ 8:1**
• Wind ~ 15:1
• EROI of at least 8:1 needed for semi-sophisticated society.
• Charles Hall: “Energy and the Wealth of Nations”

• 60000
• 50000
• 40000
• 30000
• 20000
• 10000

10000 20000 30000 40000 Conventional Oil Natural Gas Oil Sands

Canadian $ per Albertan

Royalty vs Legacy Cost Profit or Loss per Albertan

Royalty per Capita Legacy Cost/capita Royalty minus Legacy

Are we making money yet?

Financial problems and political problems in dealing with one industry

• economies. Resilient societies have a broad economic base.

EROI Mountain

COP to the Rescue?

Can coefficient of performance of electrical heating systems offset the decline in EROI? Drake Landing - 30:1

Drake Landing Geothermal Storage

Art Hunter, Sweden

Planting Trees as Salvation?

• 150
• 100
• 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 mTonnes of CO2 equivalent

Net GHG Forest Emissions

Net GHG Forest Emissions

The Different Energy Levels of Fossil Fuel vs Electrical Societies

The Grid as a Living Organism

Energy Equality - Richard W. Unger, as well as energy consumption history slide

“Energy Consumption in Canada in the 19th and 20th Centuries”

$18,000 $6,000 $1,500 20 40 60 80 100 120 Energy Used per Dollar of Income

Energy Intensity of Income by Latitude

$18,000 $12,000 $6,000 $3,000 $1,500 $1,100

Even if technically excellent, the transition to renewables won’t work if it isn’t well explained and if it pushes the already poor and stressed into a more desperate situation. Witness Syria, France “Yellow Vests” and Ontario. Environmental balance also has to produce social balance.

Policy Priorities

The fastest, best ways to transition off fossil fuels

• EVs – easiest, fastest, biggest payoff, cheapest
• Get young hands and minds working on real systems with data

collection and open source control programs

• (Art Hunter’s system with enhancements and external readout screens in 10ft or 20ft containers outside

every high school and college in the country. PV, wind, solar hot air/water, insulation, external blinds, geothermal, heat pump, etc.)

• Energy Audit for every building using one metric (kWh). People

have no idea how much energy they use outside of $$$.

• Start drilling holes for geothermal storage all across Canada (drill

borehole infrastructure for district heating, large complexes, maybe not work in the far north)

• Landlord/tenant coordination to encourage upgrading
• Stop making buildings which can’t be retrofitted
• Workforce re-training program across country – Alberta oil workers,

German coal workers

Thank You!