Emissions Inventory for Recreational Vehicles California Air Resources Board March 6, 2013 Environmental Protection Agency 0 Air Resources Board
Outline • Overview and Emissions • Inputs Base Population and Age Distribution Forecasted Population and Age Distribution Activity Base Emission Factors Regional Allocation and Corrections Rule Scenario • Results 2
Recreational Vehicles Off-Highway Motorcycle All Terrain Vehicles (ATV) Snowmobile (OHMC) Specialty Vehicle and Golf Cart Mini Bike 3
Overview • What is an inventory? An emissions inventory estimates the amount of pollutants released into the atmosphere for a specific area and time span from a source An emissions inventory helps policymakers to develop control strategies and policies • How is it calculated? Emissions = Population x Activity x Emission Factor 4
Overview – Emissions Results Statewide Summer Reactive Organic Gases (ROG) (tons per day) Baseline Baseline with Proposed Controls Proposed Net CY Benefit Exhaust ROG Evap ROG Total ROG Exhaust ROG Evap ROG Total ROG 2020 5.1 18.4 23.5 5.1 17.4 22.6 0.9 2025 4.6 19.9 24.5 4.6 14.1 18.7 5.8 2030 4.5 20.9 25.4 4.5 10.8 15.3 10.1 2035 4.6 22.5 27.1 4.6 8.6 13.2 13.9 5
Statewide Summer ROG (tons per day) 35 ~ -------------------~ >, ro 0 ..._ (/) C - 0 I- (9 0 0:: ' L.. Q) 15 -+-------------------- ' ~· ----------< E ' • E :::J (fJ 10 -+---------------------------; Q) "O -- Base l liine ·3 5 -+-- --I Q) +-' ro - - With Proposed Ca nt ral l s +-' en 0 ----~---~--~---~--~----------i 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Calendar Year 6
Inputs: Population and Age Distribution • DMV Registration Data (CY 2000 to 2010) Vehicle population by age for each calendar year Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) number Registration code ─ Codes N, P, R are unregistered vehicles ─ We assume all N, P, R code vehicles are stored at the location of prior registration ─ These “inactive” vehicles have diurnal and resting emissions only DMV code Definition Status C Currently registered Active E Evidence of use Active S Pending Active N Not currently registered Inactive P Planned non-operational Inactive R Prior history Inactive 7
Age Distribution of ATV (2010 DMV) 90000 ~ ---------------- -- Total Pop 80000 • • • • • In ac tive Pop 70000 _j____':::: ====== ~-----~ r-.- --- ---l - 0 60000 -+------------ -- --- ca ::::, 50000 -+------------ ---- --- c.. 0 a.. 40000 -+------------ -- --- > I- 30000 -+------------ -- - <( --- ----< 20000 -+----------- ------ --------< - -- • • • • -·- · -. -- ---------< 10000 -+---------------- --- -- -- - •• • •• • 0 --+---- _....,..--~ n...!_ - ~~~ · _:__, • __ • i-----------l _______!_.,, 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Model Year 8
~ Age Distribution of OHMC (2010 DMV) 70000 ~ ----------------~ -- Total Pop 60000 •••••Inactive Pop 50000 C .... 0 ro 40000 ::::s a. 0 0.. 30000 () 20000 I 0 •••• • • • • 10000 • • • • • • • • ••• • •• • •••••••••• • 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Model Year 9
Inputs: Population and Age Distribution • Vehicle technology Two vs. Four Stroke Engines ─ Two-stroke engines have much higher emissions ─ Identifiable in DMV data using VIN decoder 10
Statewide Population: Vehicle Technology 1,800,000 C 0 +-' • • • • • 2-Stroke ro 1,600,000 ::J a. --4-S troke 1,400,000 0 0... Q) 1,200,000 (.) ..c Q) 1,000,000 > ro 800,000 C 0 +-' ro 600,000 Q) L.. (.) 400,000 Q) et:: •••••••••••••••••••••• ••• 200,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Cal lendar Ye ar 11
Inputs: Forecasted Population and Age Distribution • Pop = Base Pop + Annual Sales – Vehicle Attrition • Population forecast elements Annual sales ─ New vehicles added to the population ─ Reflects forecast of engine characteristics (two vs. four-stroke) Vehicle attrition ─ Scrapped vehicles deleted from the population 12
Inputs: Forecasted New Vehicle Sales • Annual sales growth Modeled recreational vehicle sales in California as a function of forecasted nationwide housing starts Housing starts ─ General indicator of economy, discretionary spending ─ Correlate well with historical annual vehicle sales Short Term Forecast ─ 2011 to 2017, based on forecasted nationwide new housing starts (2012 UCLA Economic Forecast) Long Term Forecast ─ 2018+, based on CA human population growth (1.2%) 13
Correlation Between OHMC Annual Sales and Nationwide New Housing Starts Q) «s 50000 (J) «s ::::J 40000 C: C: <C 0 30000 2 :I: 0 20000 Q) 'C ~ Q) 11 0000 +"' «s +"' (J) 0 -------------------------< 0 0 . .5 11 11 .5 2 2 . .5 Natii onwide Single Fam1 iily Housing Starts (Millllion) 14
Annual OHMC Sales Estimates ARB and MIC 60000 ~ -------------------------~ 1 UCLA 1 50000 --1-------- - -- ---- L.......O!O E = c= o~ no =m _,__,_,_,. i '"------------- ----1 1 Fo r ecas t 1 1 New CA Human Pop ul at io n Growth 1 Housing 1 40000 -t------ -~- --- ---.--,....-r-=-,:::r::- ---t---------- --1 (/) Q) 85 30000 L ______ /L_ _~ i\_ --~- ------., ~ k ~::::::: = ---- _J co :::J C ! 20000 -+------ -- --- --- --- - ------------ -----1 C (.) :.c --ARB Q) > 10000 +- --- ---,~ ,~ ----- -¼--- --1- -1- ---1---- ----l ,, ---- MIC -~~---' o ~--~-~--~--~~-~----~--~--~-~ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Calendar year 15 MIC - Motorcycle Industry Council
Inputs: Vehicle Attrition • Estimate of population survival by age • Expressed as a survival curve • Derived from year to year analysis of DMV registration data • Results: much longer vehicle lifetime than previously estimated using industry reports 16
~ Comparison of Survival Rate for OHMC ,.,, a, 120 (0 Cl) a, - 100 0 .c: a, > - - •Previous Estimate 80 a, z \ Current Estimate \ II- 0 60 +"' C \ a, \ 0 L.. \ a, - a.. 40 \ (0 ' > ·- ' > 20 L.. ::J \ • Cl) 0 0 2 :I: 0 10 20 30 40 0 OHMCAge 17
Inputs: Vehicle Technology • Two vs. Four Stroke CY 2000 and earlier, use the same split from CY 2000 CY 2010 and later, use the same split from CY 2010 18
Forecast: Statewide Population by Vehicle Technology 1,800,000 C 0 +-' • • • • • 2-Stroke ro 1,'600,000 ::::l Forecast ==> ! c.. -- 4-Stroke 1,400,000 0 (l_ Q) 1,200,000 (.) ..c Q) 1,000,000 > ro 800,000 C 0 +-' ro '600,000 Q) I... (.) 400,000 Q) er: .. , .. , ..... , . 200,000 •••••••••• 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Ca llendar Year 19
~ ~ ~ Age Distribution of OHMC (1990 to 2000) 70000 ~------------------------~ C -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - (¥1990 ------ 0 60000 ·- +,I - ta :::s - -CV1995 Q. 50000 0 CL. - ••••• CV2000 QJ u ·- 40000 QJ > u ,, 30000 :::c: 0 QJ I \ :• ------------------- • - ·- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ""C 20000 __ .._ __________ ---------- ·;: . . . : I \ . . : ·. . \ . . . QJ . . ·. . ____ -------- .. , . . +,I ta -- -- .. ... - ·~ -- , __ .., - .,,_ +,I . .. -- 10000 ____________ •.- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ·. "" . . . V') . . . . ·. . . . . '- .... . . --- .... ·.:.:.· ······ ... ' - .. 0 ----1--- -~--~-~--~ ~-.....a -...;.~ :.&.-----.....- ~-~----I so 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 Age 20
- - . ✓ , - ♦ - ~ ~ ~ - Age Distribution of OHMC (2005 to 2015) 70000 ---r----------------------------, - CV2005 60000 ·- 0 ..., -CV2010 ' 1 - - C'U I I ::::s C. - ' ----------- 1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HU ·CV2015 ------------ ..... . ' 50000 .. ---- ----- 0 . . 0.. I • . • . . - . a, -- --------- -------------- ' : u ·- ____________ : ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _ 40000 .c: i . : . a, > • : u . :, . I 30000 -- . -------- ----- --------- ·. I : ·. . . \ . :::c: . . •. 0 . •• I : \ ·• . a, . . -------- , ---------- . . . 20000 "'C . ---- --- -------- -------------- • ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ·;: . . . \ ______ , l • • ..., a, r. • \ • . . ---- ' .... ------- ·- ---- ..., C'U . ·•. ------------ .- - 10000 . . ·. . . V, / I ••• • : • • • • • • • •• _J__ ---= ::::t: ~~~ -. ~ - ~:..:.al!..,. ____L_ :___ L__ _ 0 i_:_ _ _J __L_ _ ____L __ _ 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 Age 21
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