CA Truck Transition Scenarios Lew Fulton, Marshall Miller, Andrew - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Lew Fulton, Marshall Miller, Andrew Burke, Qian Wang

ITEM 4 Conference, IIASA, Vienna, 30 -31 Oct 20 18

CA Truck Transition Scenarios

STEPS Transition Scenarios

• Go for deep CO2 reductions across LDVs and trucks, by

2050

• LDV scenarios based on TIMES runs, backcast
• Truck scenarios developed using a truck choice model
• Trucks modeled across 8 truck classes
• Track monetary costs and “generalized costs”
• Role of ZEVs vs Biofuels
• Modeled transition in fuel production, feedstocks

Scenarios

• Business as Usual (BAU)
• LDVs meet CAFE standard and ZEV mandate through

2030

• Trucks assume no advanced technology market

penetration except transit buses

• ZEV
• Significant fuel cell and PEV sales (LDVS ~ 100% 2050,

Trucks ~60% in 2050, Transit buses 90% in 2050)

• ZEV + Biofuels (only trucks differ from ZEV)
• Roughly half the ZEV market penetration as ZEV scenario,

diesel biofuels (HEFA, FT) reach 50% blend by 2050

Transition Scenario Modeling Framework

• Spreadsheet-based model

– Specify vehicle technologies (sales mix, fuel consumption, cost) – Specify fuel supply (production/ delivery pathways, carbon intensity, cost)

LDV and truck CO2 emissions reductions

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GHG Emissions (mt CO2e)

Truck GHG Emissions - ZEV

H2 Electricity CNG Diesel Gasoline 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GHG Emissions (mt CO2e)

LDV GHG Emissions - ZEV

H2 Electricity CNG Diesel Gasoline

• Cars achieve about

an 80% CO2 reduction compared to 2010

• Trucks achieve

“only” about a 55% CO2 reduction compared to 2010

LDV and Truck Sales Shares

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Percentage of Vehicle Sales (%)

Truck ZEV Scenarios Sales Shares

ZEV+B ZEV CARB 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Percentage of Vehicles (%)

LDVs ZEV Scenarios Sales Shares

ZEV Cars ZEV LD Trucks ZEV + B Cars ZEV + B LD Trucks

• Cars achieve an 80-100%

ZEV market share by 2050

• Trucks achieve “only”

about a 60% ZEV market share in ZEV scenario by 2050 (10 years behind cars)

• Possible ARB ZEV truck

mandate also shown

Sales Shares, ZEV scenario

• Cars achieve nearly 100% market share of FCEV, BEV

and PHEV

• Trucks achieve only 60% FCEV and BEV

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2050 Sales Shares - ZEV

Fuel Cell BEV Plug-in Hybrid Hybrid NG Diesel/Gas

Fuel Consumption LDVs

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2010 2015 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050

• BAU

ZEV ZEV + Biofuels

Fuel Consumption (billion GGE)

Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type - LDVs

H2 Electricity CNG LNG Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline

Fuel Consumption Trucks

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2010 2015 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050

• BAU

ZEV ZEV + Biofuels

Fuel Consumption (billion GGE)

Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type - Trucks

H2 Electricity CNG LNG Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline

Fuel cost

• Future renewable

diesel price rises then falls as advanced RD is phased in

• Future H2 price

drops then rises as electrolysis is phased in

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Fuel Price ($ per gge)

Gaseous Fuels and Electricity

Hydrogen Electricity CNG

1 2 3 4 5 6 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Fuel Price ($ per gge)

Liquid Fuels Price

Gasoline Diesel Diesel Blend Renewable Diesel

Truck cost

• All 3 major technologies very close in price by 2040

$100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Short haul heavy duty truck price ($ thousands)

Diesel BEV 200 Fuel Cell

Effect of Purchase Factors for Fleets

• Generalized cost = monetary + non-monetary factors

(e.g. capital, fuel, uncertainty, model availability, etc.)

• Difference can exceed cost of new technology
• 100

100 200 300 400 500 600 Diesel Diesel HEV CNG EV H2 Diesel Diesel HEV CNG EV H2 2030 2050

Generalized Cost (thousand $)

Short-haul Truck Generalized Cost - BAU

Capital Cost Fuel Cost Maintenance Cost Uncertainty Refueling Inconvenience Model Availability Green PR Incentive

Truck scenario total vehicle and fuel cost

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

$ Billions

Truck total vehicle and fuel costs

ZEV+B Fuel BAU Fuel ZEV Fuel ZEV Vehicle ZEV+B Vehicle BAU vehicle

Truck scenario vehicle and fuel costs vs BAU

• 1500
• 1000
• 500

500 1000 1500 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Cost Difference (million $)

Truck Cost Difference (ZEV - BAU)

Vehicle Fuel Total

• 500

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Cost Difference (million $)

Truck Cost Difference (ZEV+B - BAU)

Vehicle Fuel Total

• ZEV truck costs

higher but plenty of energy cost savings to offset this

• ZEV+B truck costs

slightly lower but fuel costs higher, net effect is a more expensive scenario

LDV and truck cumulative cost and sensitivity cases

• We raise and lower fuel prices by 20% in the various sensitivity cases
• Total effect across cars and trucks is $10 to 60 billion up or down,

2015-2050 cumulative

• This is relative to a base cost for all cars and trucks (vehicles + fuels)
• f $4 trillion over this period. Thus under 2% change in cost.

Thank You

Sales Shares, ZEV and ZEV+B scenario

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2050 Sales Shares - ZEV

Fuel Cell BEV Plug-in Hybrid Hybrid NG Diesel/Gas 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2050 Sales Shares - ZEV + B

Fuel Cell BEV Plug-in Hybrid Hybrid NG Diesel/Gas

Fleet Stock

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2050 Fleet Stock - ZEV

Fuel Cell BEV Plug-in Hybrid Hybrid NG Diesel/Gas 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2050 Fleet Stock - ZEV + B

Fuel Cell BEV Plug-in Hybrid Hybrid NG Diesel/Gas

VMT

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2050 VMT - ZEV

Electricity Hydrogen NG Diesel/Gas 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2050 VMT - ZEV+B

Electricity Hydrogen NG Diesel/Gas

Fuel Consumption – All vehicles

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 2010 2015 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050

• BAU

ZEV ZEV + Biofuels

Fuel Consumption (billion GGE)

Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type - All Vehicles

H2 Electricity CNG LNG Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline

Fuel Consumption – ZEV + Biofuels (Trucks)

RNG content of NG increases to roughly 66% by 2050

Scenario Costs (Reference fuel price case)

Scenario Costs (Reference fuel price case)

Scenario Costs (Low fuel price case)

2050 Cost ($/gal): Diesel = $3.27, Gasoline = $2.94

Scenario Costs (Low fuel and low H2 price case)

Hydrogen Cost maximum = $5.50 / kg