By:E rin So llund T he fe de ra l g o ve rnme nt Put in pla c - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

By:E rin So llund

 T he fe de ra l g o ve rnme nt Put in pla c e to a ssist the une mplo ye d o r unde re mplo ye d.  Me dic a id, T he Wo me n, I nfa nts, a nd Childre n (WI C) Pro g ra m,  a nd Aid to F a milie s with De pe nde nt Childre n (AF DC) whic h turne d into T e mpo ra ry Assista nc e fo r Ne e dy F a milie s (T ANF ), in 1996

T he o ffic ia l po ve rty ra te in 2008 wa s 13.2 pe rc e nt, up fro m  12.5 pe rc e nt in 2007. T his wa s the first sta tistic a lly sig nific a nt a nnua l inc re a se in the po ve rty ra te sinc e 2003, whe n po ve rty inc re a se d fro m 12.5 pe rc e nt to 12.7 pe rc e nt in 2004.  I n 2008, 39.8 millio n pe o ple we re in po ve rty, up fro m 37.3 millio n in 2007 -- the se c o nd c o nse c utive a nnua l inc re a se in the numb e r o f pe o ple in po ve rty. T he data pre se nte d he re are fro m the Curre nt Po pulatio n Surve y (CPS), 2009 Annual So c ial and E c o no mic Supple me nt (ASE C), the so urc e o f o ffic ial po ve rty e stimate s. T he CPS ASE C is a sample surve y o f appro ximate ly 100,000 ho use ho ld natio nwide . T he se data re fle c t c o nditio ns in c ale ndar ye ar 2008.

 Aug 22, 1996 Pre side nt Clinto n sig ne d into la w the Pe rso nal Re spo nsib ility and Wo rk Oppo rtunity Re c o nc iliatio n Ac t o f 1996, b e tte r kno wn a s the We lfa re Re fo rm Bill. *T his c ha ng e d AF DC to T ANF

K no wn a lso a s Pub lic L a w 104-193  T his la w c ha ng e d ho w g o ve rnme nta l fina nc ia l a ssista nc e wa s  a dministe re d inc luding : F e d e ra l fund ing › T ime limits › E ng a g e in jo b se a rc hing a c tivitie s › Cha ng ing d isa b ility d e finitio n fo r Supple me nta l Se c urity Inc o me › Sta te ma nd a te s to e nfo rc e c o lle c tio n o f unpa id c hild suppo rt › Co nso lid a ting c hild c a re pro g ra ms into the c hild c a re a nd d e ve lo pme nt Blo c k Gra nt. › Cha ng ing re c e rtific a tio n re q uire me nts fo r fo o d sta mps. ›

T he thre e pro mine nt diffe re nc e s b e twe e n AF DC a nd T ANF a re a s  fo llo ws:  E ntitle me nt F e de ra l-sha re pro g ra m  No t time limite d 

 Wha t e ffe c t do e s the We lfa re Re fo rm Ac t ha ve o n the U.S sta te s? Did the re fo rm e ffe c t so me sta te s mo re tha n o the rs? Ha s this c a use d sta te s to b e c o me we lfa re ma g ne ts?

 Prima rily lo o ke d a t mig ra tio n o f the we lfa re re c ipie nts, a nd pro b le ms with ho w pe o ple vie w we lfa re . 2008 study do ne b y Sc ho w  No re a l e ffe c ts we re fo und o n po ve rty g a ps o r po ve rty ra te s. 

 F o r the a na lysis I use d the sta te s da ta se t pro vide d b y Ca rlso n a nd Hyde (2005) this da ta se t pro vide d nume ro us va ria b le s tha t c o uld b e use d a s inde pe nde nt va ria b le s. I nde pe nde nt va ria b le s I lo o ke d a t c a me fro m two a re a s,  e c o no mic , a nd po litic a l. Unit o f a na lysis is the Ame ric a n sta te s.   De pe nde nt va ria b le is the c ha ng e in we lfa re re c ipie nts in 1996-2008 fro m e a c h sta te .

 T he da ta fro m the Ce nsus Bure a u is in Mic ro so ft E xc e l fo rma t a nd wa s impo rte d into the SPSS pro g ra m a nd a dde d into the sta te da ta se t. T he va ria b le s inc lude distinc tio ns b e twe e n the ye a rs o f 1996-  2008 a s we ll a s va ria b le s tha t c o mpa re the ye a rs o f 1996, a nd 2008.  Othe r distinc tio ns in my a dde d va ria b le s inc lude une mplo yme nt ra te , sta te s who ha ve wo rke rs who a re unio n me mb e rs, sta te s tha t a re De mo c ra tic , a nd sta te s tha t a re Re pub lic a n.

Comple te Cor r e lations in Pe r Capita Change in We lfar e De mogr aphic s Pe ar sons Cor r e lation Pe rc e nt o f po pula tio n with c o lle g e e d uc a tio n o r hig he r -.072 Pe rc e nt o f po pula tio n with hig h sc ho o l o r hig he r -.052 Pe rc e nt po pula tio n a g e 18-24 .110 Pe rc e nt po pula tio n a g e 65 a nd o ld e r .103 Pe rc e nt po pula tio n Hispa nic -.136 Pe rc e nt o f po pula tio n Bla c k -.253 Pe r c a pita inc o me -.111 Une mplo yme nt ra te -.329 * Pe rc e nt o f wo rke rs who a re unio n me mb e rs -.474 ** Pe rc e nt o f po pula tio n pe r sq ua re mile -.229 Pe rc e nt o f urb a n po plua tio n -.184 Pe rc e nt o f sta te le g isla to rs who a re wo me n .026 Pe rc e nt o f sta te le g isla to rs who a re Bla c k .002 Politic al Var iable s Pe rc e nt o f ma ss pub lic De mo c ra tic -.436 ** Pe rc e nt o f ma ss pub lic Re pub lic a n .384 ** Sig nific a nt a t .05* Sig nific a nt a t .01**

Co rre la tio ns in Pe r c a pita Cha ng e in We lfa re De mogr aphic s Pe ar sons Cor r e lation Une mplo yme nt ra te -.329* Pe rc e nt o f wo rke rs who a re unio n me mb e rs -.474** Politic al Var iable s Pe rc e nt o f ma ss pub lic De mo c ra tic -.436** Pe rc e nt o f ma ss pub lic Re pub lic a n .384** Sig nific a nt a t .05* Sig nific a nt a t .01**

Per capita Drop per 1000 People Red=3,690 to 4,751 Green=2,864 to 3,669 Yellow=2,456 to 2,841 Blue=1,979 to 2,401 Grey=1,301 to 1,742 Pink=855 to 1,276

Ne w Yo rk 4,751= I llino is 4,732= L o uisia na 4,624= Ala ska 4,566= Ha wa ii 4,352= Ca lifo rnia 4,061= We st Virg inia 3,804= Rho de I sla nd 3,690=

3,669= Ge o rg ia 3,559= Mississippi 3,476= Ne w Me xic o 3,468= Mic hig a n 3,323= Co nne c tic ut 3,317= Pe nnsylva nia 3,180= Ohio 2,864= F lo rida

2,841= Ve rmo nt 2,815= Ma ryla nd 2,803= K e ntuc ky 2,783= No rth Ca ro lina 2,623= T e xa s 2,532= Wa shing to n 2,502= Misso uri 2,470= Mo nta na 2,456= Minne so ta

2,401= Ma ine 2,385= Ne w Je rse y 2,363= Wyo ming 2,344= Okla ho ma 2,259= Wisc o nsin 2,183= Ma ssa c huse tts 1,985= So uth Ca ro lina 1,979= T e nne sse e

1,742= Co lo ra do 1,738= Arizo na 1,614= I o wa 1,542= I da ho 1,471= De la wa re 1,426= Arka nsa s 1,370= Ala b a ma 1,312= So uth Da ko ta 1,301= Ne b ra ska

1,276= Virg inia 1,275= K a nsa s 1,224= No rth Da ko ta 1,214= Uta h 1,132= Ne w Ha mpshire 1,111= Ore g o n 928= I ndia na 855= Ne va da

F igur e 1 E ffe c t of Une mployme nt Rate s on Pe r Capita Change in We lfar e

F igur e 2 E ffe c t of Union Me mbe r Wor ke r s on Pe r Capita Change in We lfar e

F igur e 3 E ffe c t of Re public ans in Offic e on Pe r Capita Change in We lfar e

F igur e 4 E ffe c ts of De moc r ats in Offic e on Pe r Capita Change in We lfar e

 Po litic a l va ria b le s ha ve the mo st impa c t o n wha t sta te s re c e ive we lfa re .  As mo re sta te s ha ve unio ns the mo re sig nific a nt the y will pro ve to b e whe n b e ing c o mpa re d to ha ving we lfa re b e ne fits.

 Sta te s tha t sta rte d o ut with hig he r numb e rs o f po pula tio n o n we lfa re , e nde d up ha ving mo re c ha ng e tha n sta te s tha t sta rte d o ut with lo w numb e rs o f the po pula tio n o n we lfa re . (I E : MN,NY, I L , UT ) Mo st sig nific a nt c o rre la tio n wa s the sta te s tha t ha d unio n  me mb e rs a s wo rke rs. T he o nly po sitive c o rre la tio n a re the sta te s tha t suppo rt the  Re pub lic a n vo te .  De mo c ra tic sta te s, une mplo yme nt ra te s, a nd sta te s tha t ha ve unio n me mb e r wo rke rs a ll ha d ne g a tive c o rre la tio ns.

 An a re a tha t is still a wo rk in pro g re ss is the ma g ne t a spe c t.  I n the furthe r a na lysis, I will b e c o mpa ring sta te s to the re ne ig hb o rs in te rms o f the size o f the dro p in we lfa re re c ipie nts.