By:E rin So llund T he fe de ra l g o ve rnme nt Put in pla c - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

By:E rin So llund

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T he fe de ra l g o ve rnme nt

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Put in pla c e to a ssist the une mplo ye d o r unde re mplo ye d.

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Me dic a id, T he Wo me n, I nfa nts, a nd Childre n (WI C) Pro g ra m, a nd Aid to F a milie s with De pe nde nt Childre n (AF DC) whic h turne d into T e mpo ra ry Assista nc e fo r Ne e dy F a milie s (T ANF ), in 1996

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T he o ffic ia l po ve rty ra te in 2008 wa s 13.2 pe rc e nt, up fro m 12.5 pe rc e nt in 2007. T his wa s the first sta tistic a lly sig nific a nt a nnua l inc re a se in the po ve rty ra te sinc e 2003, whe n po ve rty inc re a se d fro m 12.5 pe rc e nt to 12.7 pe rc e nt in 2004.

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I n 2008, 39.8 millio n pe o ple we re in po ve rty, up fro m 37.3 millio n in 2007 -- the se c o nd c o nse c utive a nnua l inc re a se in the numb e r o f pe o ple in po ve rty.

T he data pre se nte d he re are fro m the Curre nt Po pulatio n Surve y (CPS), 2009 Annual So c ial and E c o no mic Supple me nt (ASE C), the so urc e o f o ffic ial po ve rty e stimate s. T he CPS ASE C is a sample surve y o f appro ximate ly 100,000 ho use ho ld natio nwide . T he se data re fle c t c o nditio ns in c ale ndar ye ar 2008.

 Aug 22, 1996 Pre side nt Clinto n sig ne d

into la w the Pe rso nal Re spo nsib ility and Wo rk Oppo rtunity Re c o nc iliatio n Ac t o f 1996, b e tte r kno wn a s the We lfa re Re fo rm Bill. *T his c ha ng e d AF DC to T ANF

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K no wn a lso a s Pub lic L a w 104-193

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T his la w c ha ng e d ho w g o ve rnme nta l fina nc ia l a ssista nc e wa s a dministe re d inc luding :

› F e d e ra l fund ing › T ime limits › E ng a g e in jo b se a rc hing a c tivitie s › Cha ng ing d isa b ility d e finitio n fo r Supple me nta l Se c urity Inc o me › Sta te ma nd a te s to e nfo rc e c o lle c tio n o f unpa id c hild suppo rt › Co nso lid a ting c hild c a re pro g ra ms into the c hild c a re a nd d e ve lo pme nt Blo c k Gra nt. › Cha ng ing re c e rtific a tio n re q uire me nts fo r fo o d sta mps.

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T he thre e pro mine nt diffe re nc e s b e twe e n AF DC a nd T ANF a re a s fo llo ws:

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E ntitle me nt

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F e de ra l-sha re pro g ra m

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No t time limite d

 Wha t e ffe c t do e s the We lfa re Re fo rm

Ac t ha ve o n the U.S sta te s? Did the re fo rm e ffe c t so me sta te s mo re tha n

• the rs? Ha s this c a use d sta te s to

b e c o me we lfa re ma g ne ts?

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Prima rily lo o ke d a t mig ra tio n o f the we lfa re re c ipie nts, a nd pro b le ms with ho w pe o ple vie w we lfa re .

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2008 study do ne b y Sc ho w

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No re a l e ffe c ts we re fo und o n po ve rty g a ps o r po ve rty ra te s.

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F

• r the a na lysis I

use d the sta te s da ta se t pro vide d b y Ca rlso n a nd Hyde (2005) this da ta se t pro vide d nume ro us va ria b le s tha t c o uld b e use d a s inde pe nde nt va ria b le s.

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I nde pe nde nt va ria b le s I lo o ke d a t c a me fro m two a re a s, e c o no mic , a nd po litic a l.

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Unit o f a na lysis is the Ame ric a n sta te s.

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De pe nde nt va ria b le is the c ha ng e in we lfa re re c ipie nts in 1996-2008 fro m e a c h sta te .

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T he da ta fro m the Ce nsus Bure a u is in Mic ro so ft E xc e l fo rma t a nd wa s impo rte d into the SPSS pro g ra m a nd a dde d into the sta te da ta se t.

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T he va ria b le s inc lude distinc tio ns b e twe e n the ye a rs o f 1996- 2008 a s we ll a s va ria b le s tha t c o mpa re the ye a rs o f 1996, a nd 2008.

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Othe r distinc tio ns in my a dde d va ria b le s inc lude une mplo yme nt ra te , sta te s who ha ve wo rke rs who a re unio n me mb e rs, sta te s tha t a re De mo c ra tic , a nd sta te s tha t a re Re pub lic a n.

Comple te Cor r e lations in Pe r Capita Change in We lfar e

De mogr aphic s Pe ar sons Cor r e lation

Pe rc e nt o f po pula tio n with c o lle g e e d uc a tio n o r hig he r

• .072

Pe rc e nt o f po pula tio n with hig h sc ho o l o r hig he r

• .052

Pe rc e nt po pula tio n a g e 18-24 .110 Pe rc e nt po pula tio n a g e 65 a nd o ld e r .103 Pe rc e nt po pula tio n Hispa nic

• .136

Pe rc e nt o f po pula tio n Bla c k

• .253

Pe r c a pita inc o me

• .111

Une mplo yme nt ra te

• .329 *

Pe rc e nt o f wo rke rs who a re unio n me mb e rs

• .474 **

Pe rc e nt o f po pula tio n pe r sq ua re mile

• .229

Pe rc e nt o f urb a n po plua tio n

• .184

Pe rc e nt o f sta te le g isla to rs who a re wo me n .026 Pe rc e nt o f sta te le g isla to rs who a re Bla c k .002

Politic al Var iable s

Pe rc e nt o f ma ss pub lic De mo c ra tic

• .436 **

Pe rc e nt o f ma ss pub lic Re pub lic a n .384 ** Sig nific a nt a t .05* Sig nific a nt a t .01**

De mogr aphic s Pe ar sons Cor

r e lation

Une mplo yme nt ra te

• .329*

Pe rc e nt o f wo rke rs who a re unio n me mb e rs

• .474**

Politic al Var iable s

Pe rc e nt o f ma ss pub lic De mo c ra tic

• .436**

Pe rc e nt o f ma ss pub lic Re pub lic a n .384**

Sig nific a nt a t .05* Sig nific a nt a t .01**

Co rre la tio ns in Pe r c a pita Cha ng e in We lfa re

Per capita Drop per 1000 People Red=3,690 to 4,751 Green=2,864 to 3,669 Yellow=2,456 to 2,841 Blue=1,979 to 2,401 Grey=1,301 to 1,742 Pink=855 to 1,276

4,751= 4,732= 4,624= 4,566= 4,352= 4,061= 3,804= 3,690= Ne w Yo rk I llino is L

• uisia na

Ala ska Ha wa ii Ca lifo rnia We st Virg inia Rho de I sla nd

3,669= 3,559= 3,476= 3,468= 3,323= 3,317= 3,180= 2,864= Ge o rg ia Mississippi Ne w Me xic o Mic hig a n Co nne c tic ut Pe nnsylva nia Ohio F lo rida

2,841= 2,815= 2,803= 2,783= 2,623= 2,532= 2,502= 2,470= 2,456= Ve rmo nt Ma ryla nd K e ntuc ky No rth Ca ro lina T e xa s Wa shing to n Misso uri Mo nta na Minne so ta

2,401= 2,385= 2,363= 2,344= 2,259= 2,183= 1,985= 1,979= Ma ine Ne w Je rse y Wyo ming Okla ho ma Wisc o nsin Ma ssa c huse tts So uth Ca ro lina T e nne sse e

1,742= 1,738= 1,614= 1,542= 1,471= 1,426= 1,370= 1,312= 1,301= Co lo ra do Arizo na I

• wa

I da ho De la wa re Arka nsa s Ala b a ma So uth Da ko ta Ne b ra ska

1,276= 1,275= 1,224= 1,214= 1,132= 1,111= 928= 855= Virg inia K a nsa s No rth Da ko ta Uta h Ne w Ha mpshire Ore g o n I ndia na Ne va da

F igur e 1 E ffe c t of Une mployme nt Rate s on Pe r Capita Change in We lfar e

F igur e 2 E ffe c t of Union Me mbe r Wor ke r s on Pe r Capita Change in We lfar e

F igur e 3 E ffe c t of Re public ans in Offic e on Pe r Capita Change in We lfar e

F igur e 4 E ffe c ts of De moc r ats in Offic e on Pe r Capita Change in We lfar e

 Po litic a l va ria b le s ha ve the mo st impa c t

• n wha t sta te s re c e ive we lfa re .

 As mo re sta te s ha ve unio ns the mo re

sig nific a nt the y will pro ve to b e whe n b e ing c o mpa re d to ha ving we lfa re b e ne fits.

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Sta te s tha t sta rte d o ut with hig he r numb e rs o f po pula tio n o n we lfa re , e nde d up ha ving mo re c ha ng e tha n sta te s tha t sta rte d o ut with lo w numb e rs o f the po pula tio n o n we lfa re . (I E : MN,NY, I L , UT )

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Mo st sig nific a nt c o rre la tio n wa s the sta te s tha t ha d unio n me mb e rs a s wo rke rs.

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T he o nly po sitive c o rre la tio n a re the sta te s tha t suppo rt the Re pub lic a n vo te .

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De mo c ra tic sta te s, une mplo yme nt ra te s, a nd sta te s tha t ha ve unio n me mb e r wo rke rs a ll ha d ne g a tive c o rre la tio ns.

 An a re a tha t is still a wo rk in pro g re ss is

the ma g ne t a spe c t.

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n the furthe r a na lysis, I will b e c o mpa ring sta te s to the re ne ig hb o rs in te rms o f the size o f the dro p in we lfa re re c ipie nts.