Brian WEEDEN Technical Advisor, Secure World Foundation Paul J. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security COMPUTER SYSTEMS AND ALGORITHMS FOR SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: HISTORY AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Brian WEEDEN Technical Advisor, Secure World Foundation Paul J. CEFOLA Consultant & Adjunct Professor, U. at Buffalo (SUNY) www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 1 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Overview Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • What is SSA and why is it important • History of SSA algorithms and computer systems – United States Government – Russia • Limitations of current systems • Proposal for open source software for SSA project www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 2 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Space surveillance Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • From the beginning of the Space Age, there was a desire to collect information about objects in Earth orbit – Typically, position and velocity – Primarily driven by military/national security needs – Includes operational needs and some safety issues • In recent years, space surveillance has been shifted to a focus on space situational awareness (SSA) – Adds info about space weather & its impacts on satellites, radiofrequency configurations and interference, space object capabilities and limitations • Recent events have prompted a massive increase in the awareness of SSA by policymakers www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 3 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Growth in the orbital debris population Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 2009 Iridium-Cosmos Collision (1,800 tracked pieces) 2007 Chinese ASAT test (2,900 tracked pieces) Credit: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 4 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security HISTORY OF SSA THEORY, ALGORITHMS AND COMPUTER SYSTEMS IN THE US GOVERNMENT www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 5 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Developmental history Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • The US government (USG), and primarily the military, has been the leader in SSA capabilities since the start of the Space Age • Initially, SSA was seen as a small part of the missile and aerospace warning mission developed during the Cold War • Additional sub-mission of protecting human spaceflight in Earth orbit • Recently there has been a shift towards SSA for commercial and civil spaceflight safety and “space traffic management” www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 6 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Original USG space surveillance requirements Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • Predict when and where a decaying space object will re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere; • Prevent a returning space object, which to radar looks like a missile, from triggering a false alarm in missile-attack warning sensors of the US and other countries; • Determines the present position of space objects and predicts their future orbital paths; • Detects new man-made objects in space; • Detects spacecraft maneuvers; • Produce a running catalog of man-made space objects; • Determine which country owns a re-entering space object; • Inform responsible authorities whether or not space objects may interfere with the US space shuttle, the International Space Station (ISS), or other manned space vehicles www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 7 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

USG SSA Computer Systems Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • 1958 Navy Space Surveillance System • 1959 Air Force 496L (SPACE TRACK) • 1963 Air Force SPADATS • Air Force 427M (SPADOC) 1970’s • 1980’s Air Force SPADOC 4C 1990’ • Navy Workstation System s 1990’s • CAVENet • Combatant Commander’s Integrated Command and Control System (CCIC2S) 2006* • 2015* JSpOC Mission System (JMS) www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 8 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Development of USG astrodynamics theories Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • General perturbations (GP) theory – Analytical approach, produces mean element sets – Dirk BROUWER and Yoshida KOZAI (differ mainly in mean motion calculation) • Special perturbations (SP) theory – Numerical approach, produces osculating element sets and covariance matrices • Gravitational (geopotential) models • Atmospheric models www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 9 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

USG SSA system shortcomings (1) Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • Observation compression concepts are not available for either radar or optical sensors • Fast and accurate orbit propagator concepts are not available • Fast and accurate state transition matrix concepts are not available • Kalman filter-based orbit estimation concepts are not available • Kalman filter-based sensor calibration processes for are not available • Realistic process noise and measurement error models are not employed • The orbit uncertainty as represented by and propagated by the orbit determination systems is not well understood • The processes developed by the Air Force Space Command for real time tracking of the atmospheric density variations are limited and narrow in scope www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 10 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

USG SSA system shortcomings (2) Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • There is no process for re-acquiring a significant portion of the catalog, as would be required in the event of a major geo-magnetic storm (such as 1989) • There is no mathematically ‘strong’ theory for the general concept of observation association • There is no concept for taking advantage of frameworks that can be massively parallelized on distributed computing clusters. • There is no web services-based architecture for SSA • There is no capability for organizing the very large databases that will result from large catalogs and improved sensors • There is only a limited cooperative, positive relationship between the U.S. military SSA community and the broader international astrodynamics research community • The strict acquisition and operational requirements resulting from the NORAD ITW/AA certification process www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 11 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security RUSSIAN SYSTEMS AND HISTORY www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 12 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Russian astrodynamic theories Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • Broadly follow the same approach as the US, but not necessarily compatible • A (Analytical Prediction – Based on Brouwer – AP (Analytical Prediction with Enhanced Accuracy) • NA (Numerical Analytical Method) – Semi-analytical theory based on Brouwer • N (Numerical Method with 6x3 geopotential model) – Based on numerical integration – NP adds geopotential harmonics up to 14 th order and Sun-Moon perturbations www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 13 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Russia SSA computers Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • 1962: Initial Operating Capability – M-50 – Designed by S. A. LEBEDEV • 1969: Space Monitoring Capability – 5E92 – Modified M-50 due to LEBEDEV and BURTSEV – Catalog was approximately 500 space objects • 1972: Space Monitoring Capability – 5E51 – Modified 5E92 due to LEBEDEV and BURTSEV – 3000 space objects – Untrackable debris estimated at 10-12 thousand objects • 1992: Space Monitoring Capability – El’brus – Symmetric multi-processor stack-based CPU architecture due to BURTSEV – El’brus -2 clocked at 125 million ops per second (1985) – 5500 space objects www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 14 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Russia general purpose BESM-6 based on 5E51 components Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 15 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security MOVING TOWARDS THE FUTURE www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 16 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Recent technology shifts Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • Commoditization of powerful computing resources and resulting widespread availability • Reduced cost of tracking measurements from reduction in cost of sensors, due primarily to use of commercial-off-the-shelf technology • Improved knowledge of the space environment from better models and measurements • Satellite laser ranging (SLR) for the orbital regimes covered by SSA sensors • Nonlinear estimation techniques • Improved software technology including object-oriented technologies (C++/CORBA) and techniques for extensible encapsulation and automatically generated GUIs www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 17 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Proposal for an open source software approach Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security • Design of Web services-based architecture for SSA – Human-Provided Services (HPS) model combines ad-hoc and process-centric flows • Migration of key algorithms to distributed, object-oriented design environment – C++, Fortran 90 • Non-invasive encapsulation of key SSA legacy code packages – eXtensible markup language (XML) – LEGacy Encapsulation for Network Distribution (LEGEND) www.SecureWorldFoundation.org 18 12 th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal