Brian WEEDEN Technical Advisor, Secure World Foundation Paul J. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

COMPUTER SYSTEMS AND ALGORITHMS FOR SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: HISTORY AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

Brian WEEDEN Technical Advisor, Secure World Foundation Paul J. CEFOLA Consultant & Adjunct Professor, U. at Buffalo (SUNY)

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12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Overview

• What is SSA and why is it important
• History of SSA algorithms and computer systems

– United States Government – Russia

• Limitations of current systems
• Proposal for open source software for SSA project

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Space surveillance

• From the beginning of the Space Age, there was a desire to collect

information about objects in Earth orbit

– Typically, position and velocity – Primarily driven by military/national security needs – Includes operational needs and some safety issues

• In recent years, space surveillance has been shifted to a focus on

space situational awareness (SSA)

– Adds info about space weather & its impacts on satellites, radiofrequency configurations and interference, space object capabilities and limitations

• Recent events have prompted a massive increase in the awareness of

SSA by policymakers

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12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Growth in the orbital debris population

2007 Chinese ASAT test (2,900 tracked pieces) 2009 Iridium-Cosmos Collision (1,800 tracked pieces)

Credit: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

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12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

HISTORY OF SSA THEORY, ALGORITHMS AND COMPUTER SYSTEMS IN THE US GOVERNMENT

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Developmental history

• The US government (USG), and primarily the military, has been the

leader in SSA capabilities since the start of the Space Age

• Initially, SSA was seen as a small part of the missile and aerospace

warning mission developed during the Cold War

• Additional sub-mission of protecting human spaceflight in Earth orbit
• Recently there has been a shift towards SSA for commercial and civil

spaceflight safety and “space traffic management”

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Original USG space surveillance requirements

• Predict when and where a decaying space object will re-enter the

Earth’s atmosphere;

• Prevent a returning space object, which to radar looks like a missile,

from triggering a false alarm in missile-attack warning sensors of the US and other countries;

• Determines the present position of space objects and predicts their

future orbital paths;

• Detects new man-made objects in space;
• Detects spacecraft maneuvers;
• Produce a running catalog of man-made space objects;
• Determine which country owns a re-entering space object;
• Inform responsible authorities whether or not space objects may

interfere with the US space shuttle, the International Space Station (ISS), or other manned space vehicles

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USG SSA Computer Systems

• Navy Space Surveillance System
• Air Force 496L (SPACE TRACK)
• Air Force SPADATS
• Air Force 427M (SPADOC)
• Air Force SPADOC 4C
• Navy Workstation System
• CAVENet
• Combatant Commander’s Integrated Command and Control System

(CCIC2S)

• JSpOC Mission System (JMS)

1958 1959 1963 1970’s 1980’s 1990’ s 1990’s 2015* 2006*

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Development of USG astrodynamics theories

• General perturbations (GP) theory

– Analytical approach, produces mean element sets – Dirk BROUWER and Yoshida KOZAI (differ mainly in mean motion calculation)

• Special perturbations (SP) theory

– Numerical approach, produces osculating element sets and covariance matrices

• Gravitational (geopotential) models
• Atmospheric models

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USG SSA system shortcomings (1)

• Observation compression concepts are not available for either radar or
• ptical sensors
• Fast and accurate orbit propagator concepts are not available
• Fast and accurate state transition matrix concepts are not available
• Kalman filter-based orbit estimation concepts are not available
• Kalman filter-based sensor calibration processes for are not available
• Realistic process noise and measurement error models are not

employed

• The orbit uncertainty as represented by and propagated by the orbit

determination systems is not well understood

• The processes developed by the Air Force Space Command for real

time tracking of the atmospheric density variations are limited and narrow in scope

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USG SSA system shortcomings (2)

• There is no process for re-acquiring a significant portion of the catalog, as

would be required in the event of a major geo-magnetic storm (such as 1989)

• There is no mathematically ‘strong’ theory for the general concept of
• bservation association
• There is no concept for taking advantage of frameworks that can be

massively parallelized on distributed computing clusters.

• There is no web services-based architecture for SSA
• There is no capability for organizing the very large databases that will result

from large catalogs and improved sensors

• There is only a limited cooperative, positive relationship between the U.S.

military SSA community and the broader international astrodynamics research community

• The strict acquisition and operational requirements resulting from the

NORAD ITW/AA certification process

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RUSSIAN SYSTEMS AND HISTORY

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Russian astrodynamic theories

• Broadly follow the same approach as the US, but not necessarily

compatible

• A (Analytical Prediction

– Based on Brouwer – AP (Analytical Prediction with Enhanced Accuracy)

• NA (Numerical Analytical Method)

– Semi-analytical theory based on Brouwer

• N (Numerical Method with 6x3 geopotential model)

– Based on numerical integration – NP adds geopotential harmonics up to 14th order and Sun-Moon perturbations

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Russia SSA computers

• 1962: Initial Operating Capability – M-50

– Designed by S. A. LEBEDEV

• 1969: Space Monitoring Capability – 5E92

– Modified M-50 due to LEBEDEV and BURTSEV – Catalog was approximately 500 space objects

• 1972: Space Monitoring Capability – 5E51

– Modified 5E92 due to LEBEDEV and BURTSEV – 3000 space objects – Untrackable debris estimated at 10-12 thousand objects

• 1992: Space Monitoring Capability – El’brus

– Symmetric multi-processor stack-based CPU architecture due to BURTSEV – El’brus-2 clocked at 125 million ops per second (1985) – 5500 space objects

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Russia general purpose BESM-6 based on 5E51 components

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MOVING TOWARDS THE FUTURE

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Recent technology shifts

• Commoditization of powerful computing resources and resulting

widespread availability

• Reduced cost of tracking measurements from reduction in cost
• f sensors, due primarily to use of commercial-off-the-shelf

technology

• Improved knowledge of the space environment from better

models and measurements

• Satellite laser ranging (SLR) for the orbital regimes covered by

SSA sensors

• Nonlinear estimation techniques
• Improved software technology including object-oriented

technologies (C++/CORBA) and techniques for extensible encapsulation and automatically generated GUIs

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Proposal for an open source software approach

• Design of Web services-based architecture for SSA

– Human-Provided Services (HPS) model combines ad-hoc and process-centric flows

• Migration of key algorithms to distributed, object-oriented

design environment – C++, Fortran 90

• Non-invasive encapsulation of key SSA legacy code packages

– eXtensible markup language (XML) – LEGacy Encapsulation for Network Distribution (LEGEND)

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Key algorithms

• Observation compression
• Orbit propagators
• State transition matrix
• Improved nonlinear Kalman filters
• Realistic process noise
• Atmosphere density variations
• Demonstration of frameworks that can be massively parallelized
• n distributed memory clusters
• Demonstration of web services based architecture

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Exploratory activities

• Migration of standalone DSST from Fortran 77 to C++
• Non-invasive encapsulation of Linux GTDS R&D using XML and

LEGEND

• Initial design of Web services-based architecture for SSA
• Development of business plan and strategy

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Secure World Foundation

• Private, non-profit foundation founded in 2004
• HQ just outside of Denver, Colorado, official offices in Washington DC

and soon Brussels, Belgium, presence in Montreal

• Dedicated to the secure and sustainable use of space for the benefit
• f all humanity
• We inform, facilitate, and promote
• Strong role in both the international and domestic policy communities,

linking technical and policy/legal initiatives

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Questions?

bweeden@swfound.org paulcefo@buffalo.edu

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BACKUP SLIDES

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• General perturbations (GP) theory

– ??

• Simplified General Perturbations Theory (SGP)

– Long period motion, J2 short-periodic motions

• Simplified General Perturbations 4 (SGP4)

– SGP plus power-law model of the atmospheric density – SDP4 models for geosynchronous and Molnyia-type orbits

• HANDE and SALT

– GP theories which include some aspects of semi-analytical theory – Add dynamic atmospheric density models – Never fully accepted or utilized by the USG