Brian WEEDEN Technical Advisor, Secure World Foundation Paul J. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

brian weeden technical advisor secure world foundation
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Brian WEEDEN Technical Advisor, Secure World Foundation Paul J. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security COMPUTER SYSTEMS AND ALGORITHMS FOR SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: HISTORY AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Brian WEEDEN Technical Advisor, Secure World Foundation Paul J. CEFOLA Consultant & Adjunct


slide-1
SLIDE 1

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 1 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

COMPUTER SYSTEMS AND ALGORITHMS FOR SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: HISTORY AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

Brian WEEDEN Technical Advisor, Secure World Foundation Paul J. CEFOLA Consultant & Adjunct Professor, U. at Buffalo (SUNY)

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 2 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Overview

  • What is SSA and why is it important
  • History of SSA algorithms and computer systems

– United States Government – Russia

  • Limitations of current systems
  • Proposal for open source software for SSA project
slide-3
SLIDE 3

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 3 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Space surveillance

  • From the beginning of the Space Age, there was a desire to collect

information about objects in Earth orbit

– Typically, position and velocity – Primarily driven by military/national security needs – Includes operational needs and some safety issues

  • In recent years, space surveillance has been shifted to a focus on

space situational awareness (SSA)

– Adds info about space weather & its impacts on satellites, radiofrequency configurations and interference, space object capabilities and limitations

  • Recent events have prompted a massive increase in the awareness of

SSA by policymakers

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 4 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Growth in the orbital debris population

2007 Chinese ASAT test (2,900 tracked pieces) 2009 Iridium-Cosmos Collision (1,800 tracked pieces)

Credit: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 5 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

HISTORY OF SSA THEORY, ALGORITHMS AND COMPUTER SYSTEMS IN THE US GOVERNMENT

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 6 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Developmental history

  • The US government (USG), and primarily the military, has been the

leader in SSA capabilities since the start of the Space Age

  • Initially, SSA was seen as a small part of the missile and aerospace

warning mission developed during the Cold War

  • Additional sub-mission of protecting human spaceflight in Earth orbit
  • Recently there has been a shift towards SSA for commercial and civil

spaceflight safety and “space traffic management”

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 7 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Original USG space surveillance requirements

  • Predict when and where a decaying space object will re-enter the

Earth’s atmosphere;

  • Prevent a returning space object, which to radar looks like a missile,

from triggering a false alarm in missile-attack warning sensors of the US and other countries;

  • Determines the present position of space objects and predicts their

future orbital paths;

  • Detects new man-made objects in space;
  • Detects spacecraft maneuvers;
  • Produce a running catalog of man-made space objects;
  • Determine which country owns a re-entering space object;
  • Inform responsible authorities whether or not space objects may

interfere with the US space shuttle, the International Space Station (ISS), or other manned space vehicles

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 8 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

USG SSA Computer Systems

  • Navy Space Surveillance System
  • Air Force 496L (SPACE TRACK)
  • Air Force SPADATS
  • Air Force 427M (SPADOC)
  • Air Force SPADOC 4C
  • Navy Workstation System
  • CAVENet
  • Combatant Commander’s Integrated Command and Control System

(CCIC2S)

  • JSpOC Mission System (JMS)

1958 1959 1963 1970’s 1980’s 1990’ s 1990’s 2015* 2006*

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 9 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Development of USG astrodynamics theories

  • General perturbations (GP) theory

– Analytical approach, produces mean element sets – Dirk BROUWER and Yoshida KOZAI (differ mainly in mean motion calculation)

  • Special perturbations (SP) theory

– Numerical approach, produces osculating element sets and covariance matrices

  • Gravitational (geopotential) models
  • Atmospheric models
slide-10
SLIDE 10

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 10 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

USG SSA system shortcomings (1)

  • Observation compression concepts are not available for either radar or
  • ptical sensors
  • Fast and accurate orbit propagator concepts are not available
  • Fast and accurate state transition matrix concepts are not available
  • Kalman filter-based orbit estimation concepts are not available
  • Kalman filter-based sensor calibration processes for are not available
  • Realistic process noise and measurement error models are not

employed

  • The orbit uncertainty as represented by and propagated by the orbit

determination systems is not well understood

  • The processes developed by the Air Force Space Command for real

time tracking of the atmospheric density variations are limited and narrow in scope

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 11 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

USG SSA system shortcomings (2)

  • There is no process for re-acquiring a significant portion of the catalog, as

would be required in the event of a major geo-magnetic storm (such as 1989)

  • There is no mathematically ‘strong’ theory for the general concept of
  • bservation association
  • There is no concept for taking advantage of frameworks that can be

massively parallelized on distributed computing clusters.

  • There is no web services-based architecture for SSA
  • There is no capability for organizing the very large databases that will result

from large catalogs and improved sensors

  • There is only a limited cooperative, positive relationship between the U.S.

military SSA community and the broader international astrodynamics research community

  • The strict acquisition and operational requirements resulting from the

NORAD ITW/AA certification process

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 12 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

RUSSIAN SYSTEMS AND HISTORY

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 13 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Russian astrodynamic theories

  • Broadly follow the same approach as the US, but not necessarily

compatible

  • A (Analytical Prediction

– Based on Brouwer – AP (Analytical Prediction with Enhanced Accuracy)

  • NA (Numerical Analytical Method)

– Semi-analytical theory based on Brouwer

  • N (Numerical Method with 6x3 geopotential model)

– Based on numerical integration – NP adds geopotential harmonics up to 14th order and Sun-Moon perturbations

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 14 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Russia SSA computers

  • 1962: Initial Operating Capability – M-50

– Designed by S. A. LEBEDEV

  • 1969: Space Monitoring Capability – 5E92

– Modified M-50 due to LEBEDEV and BURTSEV – Catalog was approximately 500 space objects

  • 1972: Space Monitoring Capability – 5E51

– Modified 5E92 due to LEBEDEV and BURTSEV – 3000 space objects – Untrackable debris estimated at 10-12 thousand objects

  • 1992: Space Monitoring Capability – El’brus

– Symmetric multi-processor stack-based CPU architecture due to BURTSEV – El’brus-2 clocked at 125 million ops per second (1985) – 5500 space objects

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 15 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Russia general purpose BESM-6 based on 5E51 components

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 16 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

MOVING TOWARDS THE FUTURE

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 17 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Recent technology shifts

  • Commoditization of powerful computing resources and resulting

widespread availability

  • Reduced cost of tracking measurements from reduction in cost
  • f sensors, due primarily to use of commercial-off-the-shelf

technology

  • Improved knowledge of the space environment from better

models and measurements

  • Satellite laser ranging (SLR) for the orbital regimes covered by

SSA sensors

  • Nonlinear estimation techniques
  • Improved software technology including object-oriented

technologies (C++/CORBA) and techniques for extensible encapsulation and automatically generated GUIs

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 18 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Proposal for an open source software approach

  • Design of Web services-based architecture for SSA

– Human-Provided Services (HPS) model combines ad-hoc and process-centric flows

  • Migration of key algorithms to distributed, object-oriented

design environment – C++, Fortran 90

  • Non-invasive encapsulation of key SSA legacy code packages

– eXtensible markup language (XML) – LEGacy Encapsulation for Network Distribution (LEGEND)

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 19 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Key algorithms

  • Observation compression
  • Orbit propagators
  • State transition matrix
  • Improved nonlinear Kalman filters
  • Realistic process noise
  • Atmosphere density variations
  • Demonstration of frameworks that can be massively parallelized
  • n distributed memory clusters
  • Demonstration of web services based architecture
slide-20
SLIDE 20

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 20 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Exploratory activities

  • Migration of standalone DSST from Fortran 77 to C++
  • Non-invasive encapsulation of Linux GTDS R&D using XML and

LEGEND

  • Initial design of Web services-based architecture for SSA
  • Development of business plan and strategy
slide-21
SLIDE 21

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 21 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Secure World Foundation

  • Private, non-profit foundation founded in 2004
  • HQ just outside of Denver, Colorado, official offices in Washington DC

and soon Brussels, Belgium, presence in Montreal

  • Dedicated to the secure and sustainable use of space for the benefit
  • f all humanity
  • We inform, facilitate, and promote
  • Strong role in both the international and domestic policy communities,

linking technical and policy/legal initiatives

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 22 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

Questions?

bweeden@swfound.org paulcefo@buffalo.edu

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 23 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

BACKUP SLIDES

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security 24 www.SecureWorldFoundation.org

12th ISCOPS , July 27-30 2010, Montreal

  • General perturbations (GP) theory

– ??

  • Simplified General Perturbations Theory (SGP)

– Long period motion, J2 short-periodic motions

  • Simplified General Perturbations 4 (SGP4)

– SGP plus power-law model of the atmospheric density – SDP4 models for geosynchronous and Molnyia-type orbits

  • HANDE and SALT

– GP theories which include some aspects of semi-analytical theory – Add dynamic atmospheric density models – Never fully accepted or utilized by the USG