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Pupil Enrollment Projection Study Report

P r e s e n t e d t o :

Utica Community Schools Board of Education

F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 9

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Demographic Trends in Southeast Michigan

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Southeast Michigan Council of Government (SEMCOG) recently released a Quick Facts report detailing its 2045 forecast of school-age population in Southeast Michigan that forecasts a continued drop in school-age population. Some highlights:

• School-age population has been declining since the early 2000’s. The region has seen

a 15% decline in 15 years (2000-2015).

• The number is forecast to drop another 10% by 2025.
• The impact has been seen in elementary and middle schools over the past 15 years.

Going forward, the impact will be more prevalent in high schools and post-secondary education.

• At the individual school-district level, all but 12 of the 112 school districts in the region

are forecast to experience declines in school-age children between now and 2025.

• By 2026, the senior population (65+) will outnumber children in Southeast Michigan.

SEMCOG Analysis of Population in Southeast Michigan

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❑ PMC’s Process ▪ Demographic Growth ▪ GIS ▪ US Census Bureau ▪ Core Base Statistical Area ▪ Primary Area (District) ▪ Comparison #1 (County) ▪ Comparison #2 (State) ▪ Cohort Survival – DS 4061

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2010 2018 2023 Difference (10-years)

Population 184,264 191,743 196,702 + 12,438 Total Households (Occupied) 70,186 73,092 75,347 + 5,161 Median Household Owner Age 52.2 53.8 54.4 +2.2 years Median Household Income $68,038 $86,189 $97,672 +$29,634 # of Households Earning ($125K - $200K+) 13,592 22,065 27,262 +13,670 Median Household Income (by municipality) 2018 Macomb Township $95,516 Sterling Heights $62,344 Shelby Township $69,574 Ray Township $63,944 Utica, City of $55,221 Washington Township $87,264

District Demographic Summary

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Utica Community Schools Macomb County Michigan

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❑ Population Trend by Age Groups within Utica Community Schools Boundary

13 Age 0-5 Cohort Current K-12 Cohort

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Historical Projected

15 Projected Historical

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Total K-12 Enrolled Students in Utica Community Schools (2014-15 vs. 2018-19 School Year)

• Full Time Equivalent K-12 Students (2018-19 Fall Count):

26,873

• K-12 Students Projected (PMC projections from 2014-15):

26,921

• 48 Pupils (99.9% Accuracy)

2010 2018 2023 Difference (10-years)

Population 184,264 191,743 196,702 + 12,438 Total Households (Occupied) 70,186 73,092 75,347 + 5,161 Median Household Owner Age 52.2 53.8 54.4 +2.2 years Enrolled PK-12 Population 31,295 30,771 30,933

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District Demographic and Enrollment Summary

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