Beyond the Comfort Zone Abrupt Climate Change and the Arctic Early - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Beyond the Comfort Zone Abrupt Climate Change and the Arctic Early - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Beyond the Comfort Zone Abrupt Climate Change and the Arctic Early Warming System Jason E. Box, PhD Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Geography The Ohio State University Earthkeeping Summit: 31 March, 2012, Columbus, OH Friday, March 30, 2012

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Beyond the Comfort Zone Abrupt Climate Change and the Arctic Early Warming System

Jason E. Box, PhD

  • Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Geography

The Ohio State University Earthkeeping Summit: 31 March, 2012, Columbus, OH

Friday, March 30, 2012

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Professional Bio

  • tenured Geography professor at The Ohio State University.
  • scientist at Byrd Polar Research Center
  • physical climatologist with Greenland ice and climate emphasis
  • >50 externally-reviewed publications
  • university lecturing 2003-present
  • emphasis on atmosphere-surface interactions
  • physical climatology at local to global scales
  • environmental issues
  • world geography

Friday, March 30, 2012

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Professional Bio

State of the Climate

  • led since 2003, the Greenland entry for The Bulletin of the American

Meteorological Society's annual State of the Climate reports.

  • led since 2007 composition of the Arctic Report Card, published

annually since 2006 by The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

  • contributing author to "Climate Change 2007", the definitive report on

the science of climate change by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

  • contributing author to IPCC 5th Assessment Report "Climate Change

2014"

Friday, March 30, 2012

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island area: 2.16 x 106 km2 ice sheet area: 1.69 x 106 km2 isolated ice caps: 59,746 km2 2300 km x 200-700 km 87% area above 1000 m 3 million km3 ice

Greenland

4

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Friday, March 30, 2012

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Humboldt GITS NGRIP Tunu-N NASA-E Summit NASA-U CP1&2 JAR1,2,3 Swiss Camp KAR NASA-SE Saddle South Dome DYE-2

Steffen, K. and J.E. Box, 2001: Surface climatology of the Greenland ice sheet: Greenland Climate Network 1995-1999,

  • J. Geophys. Res., 106(D24), 33951-33964.

Greenland Climate Network (1994-2005)

Friday, March 30, 2012

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Ice Reflectivity

MODIS MOD10A1 Albedo GC-Net

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Surface Air Temperature

MAR GC-Net

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MAR GC-Net

Solar Energy

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Umiamako Isbrae 15 June - 25 August 2007

1 frame per day, view from site A

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Daily Displacements at Umiamiko Isbrae

max displacement = 65 pixels / day

Displacement [pixels / day]

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August 2005 model verification, measuring snow accumulation at the point where models predict the most snowfall in Greenland.

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Photo: Jason Box, 4 July, 2009

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Greenland Glacier Cumulative Area Changes

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monthly annual

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degrees ¡C

Instrumental Surface Air Temperature Anomalies

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Hansen, J.E., and S. Lebedeff, 1987: Global trends of measured surface air temperature.

  • J. Geophys. Res., 92, 13345-13372.

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The Paul Revere of Climatology

testimony on climate change to congressional committees in the 1980s

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2011 zonal average anomalies

Arctic Amplification of Warming

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Albedo Change

Box, J.E., X. Fettweis, J.C. Stroeve, M. Tedesco, D.K. Hall, and K. Steffen, Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers, The Cryosphere, tc-2012-5, 20 Jan. 2012

Friday, March 30, 2012

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Velicogna, I. and J. Wahr (2006). Measurements of Time-Variable Gravity Show Mass Loss in Antarctica, Science, Vol. 311 no. 5768 pp. 1754-1756 DOI: 10.1126/science.1123785

Greenland mass change 2002-2011

Friday, March 30, 2012

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Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, R. A. Locarnini, H. E. Garcia, and A. V. Mishonov (2009), Global

  • cean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems, Geophys. Res.

Lett., 36, L07608

The heat content of the world ocean increased significantly, representing a volume mean warming of 0.06 C, corresponding to a warming rate of 0.3 W / m^2 per unit area of Earth’s surface. The global volume mean temperature increase for the 0- to 300-meter layer was 0.31 C between the mid-1950s and mid-1990s.

Ocean Heat Content

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change, The Scientific Basis, 2007, Fourth Assessment Report

Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

Friday, March 30, 2012

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The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science.

  • I. Allison, N.L. Bindoff, R.A. Bindschadler, P.M. Cox, N. de Noblet, M.H. England, J.E. Francis, N.

Gruber, A.M. Haywood, D.J. Karoly, G. Kaser, C. Le QueÅLreÅL, T.M. Lenton, M.E. Mann, B.I. McNeil, A.J. Pitman, S. Rahmstorf, E. Rignot, H.J. Schellnhuber, S.H. Schneider, S.C. Sherwood, R.C.J. Somerville, K. Steffen, E.J. Steig, M. Visbeck, A.J. Weaver. The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, Australia, 60pp.

Surface Air Temperature

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Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva (2010), Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2.

Global Sea Level

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after R. B. Alley, P. U. Clark, P. Huybrechts, I. Joughin, Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes, Science, 2005

  • Mar. 2012

395 ppmv 40% above pre-industrial +21 m

>35 million years ago 32 million years ago ~250 years ago 21,000 years ago

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Comodifying Nature

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Sustainable Development

“Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their

  • wn needs.”

The Balancing Act

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http://www.drawthelineattarsands.com/images/uploads/slideshows/CA09-213.jpg

Extreme Energy, going after every last drop in the Athabascan Oil Sands

myriad problems

  • ~3x CO2 vs conventional petroleum
  • CO2 makes climate change unmanageable
  • extreme water usage
  • land surface devastation
  • poisoning of people and animals
  • spills
  • setting another non-sustainable example
  • lock-in to extremely dirty energy

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1,253 arrests at the No Keystone XL Pipeline White House Sit-In

Beyond the Comfort Zone

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1,253 arrests at the No Keystone XL Pipeline White House Sit-In

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1,253 arrests at the No Keystone XL Pipeline White House Sit-In

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Winter Heatwave 2012

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http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/25/10853227-march-has-meant-6000-weather- records-broken

The Time-scales of Weather and Climate overlap

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Satellite picture March 21, 2012, showing the blocking high and heat dome in place over the Great Lakes and East, and a slow-moving storm over the South Central states. Credit: NOAA.

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Warm Air Sunny

The Time-scales of Weather and Climate overlap

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Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL05100.

The Time-scales of Weather and Climate overlap

slower eastward progression of Rossby waves (Jet Stream) in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened E-W winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. more persistent wave patterns, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

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Earth Days

the state’s largest volunteer initiative

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Arctic Amplificaiton

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B1 A1 A2

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, The science of climate change, 2007

Climate Model Projections

Scenario B 2000: globally harmonious adoption of Kyoto Protocol Scenario A2 2000: fossil fuel intensive business as usual

Temperature Change by 2099

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albedo and solar heating

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warming less sunlight reflected from the surface warming less sunlight reflected from the surface

Ice Albedo Feedback Reinforces Warming

less persistent snow less persistent snow

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cooling more persistent snow more sunlight reflected from the surface cooling more persistent snow more sunlight reflected from the surface

Ice Albedo Feedback Reinforces Cooling

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