BATON ROUGE AREA ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ADAM KNAPP, JULY 28, 2020 JOB - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

BATON ROUGE AREA ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

ADAM KNAPP, JULY 28, 2020

340.0 350.0 360.0 370.0 380.0 390.0 400.0 410.0 420.0 430.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Nonfarm Jobs

Great Recession* 2016 Flood COVID Pandemic MAJOR BR MSA JOB LOSSES Great Recession* (12/07 – 1/10): -6.2% 2016 Flood (8/16): -1.0%

• Led to lower job count in

high-employment times like holidays 2020 Covid-19 Pandemic (3/20 – Present): -10.5%

• 13.2% in April
• 11.1% in May

Source: BLS, LWC, BRAC Analysis. *Technical dates of the recession are 12/2007 to 6/2009, but greatest negative job effects felt in Baton Rouge metro area in 1/2010

JOB LOSSES IN THE CAPITAL REGION ARE STILL NEARLY TWICE AS HIGH AS THOSE FROM THE GREAT RECESSION

RETAIL FUEL SALES IN THE REGION AND STATE ARE TRENDING TOWARD PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS

Retail fuel sales hit their highest over-the-year number since the start of the pandemic, despite static mobility numbers overall. The trendline illustrates that despite several down weeks in the last month, Capital Region fuel sales have a strong growth trend toward 2019 sales numbers.

15% 17%

• 50%
• 40%
• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20%

Retail Fuel Sales

Louisiana Greater Baton Rouge Linear (Greater Baton Rouge)

WHILE HOTEL OCCUPANCY HAS BEGUN TO APPROACH 2019 RATES, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS HAVE PLATEAUED AT A RELATIVELY HIGH LEVEL

64% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 4-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul

Hotel Occupancy

2019 2020 2,192 64,218 58,007 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 4-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul

Weekly Combined UI Claims

Number of Claims

Source: STR; LWC; BRAC Analysis.

CONSUMER SPENDING HAS REBOUNDED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LATE MARCH

Consumer spending has hovered around pre- pandemic levels in Ascension and Livingston, and is approaching it in EBR. Consumer spending has been buoyed by federal unemployment

• enhancement. If the

benefits completely stop, there is concern spending will drop.

Livingston East Baton Rouge Ascension

Source: Opportunity Insights (data through 7/12/20); BRAC Analysis.

Regional low point

REGIONAL PARISHES THAT HAVE SEEN SMALL BUSINESS CLOSURES HAVE ALSO SEEN A DECREASE IN SMALL BUSINESS REVENUES

Small business opening numbers improved in the first two weeks of July, but that does not include the mandated bar closures. Small business revenue seems to be correlated to small businesses open – revenue in Ascension is up over pre-pandemic numbers, while EBR and Livingston are down.

Livingston East Baton Rouge Ascension

Source: Opportunity Insights (data through 7/13/20); BRAC Analysis.

While East Baton Rouge is slightly down in all three metrics, the metrics are much more varied in other urban centers. This outcome indicates how closely tied small business is to the overall economic health of the City-Parish. With enhanced unemployment set to expire if there is no federal intervention, consumer spending and small business revenues may dip.

Source: Opportunity Insights, county level data (consumer spending data through week ending 7/12/20, all other data through 7/14/20); BRAC Analysis.

BATON ROUGE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY WHEN COMPARED TO PEER CITIES

• 20.0%
• 15.0%
• 10.0%
• 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Baton Rouge, LA Birmingham, AL Columbia, SC Greenville, SC Little Rock, AR Louisville, KY Consumer Spending Small Business Rev. Small Businesses Open

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