ASX Investor Hour DISCLAIMER: The following material was presented - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ASX Investor Hour DISCLAIMER: The following material was presented - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ASX Investor Hour DISCLAIMER: The following material was presented at ASX Investor Hour. The views, opinions or recommendations of the presenter are solely those of the presenter and do not in any way reflect the views, opinions,

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ASX Investor Hour

DISCLAIMER: The following material was presented at ASX Investor Hour. The views, opinions or recommendations of the presenter are solely those of the presenter and do not in any way reflect the views, opinions, recommendations, of ASX Limited ABN 98 008 624 691 and its related bodies corporate (“ASX”). ASX makes no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy, completeness or currency of the content. The content is for educational purposes

  • nly and does not constitute financial advice. Independent advice should be
  • btained from an Australian financial services licensee before making investment
  • decisions. To the extent permitted by law, ASX and its employees, officers and

contractors shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided or omitted

  • r from any one acting or refraining to act in reliance on this information.

Presenter: Jim Berg, author Topic: When you should reinvest and how you should do it Date: 7 December 2011 Location: Melbourne Investor Hour

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JIM BERG Jim Berg

Bull or Bear?

When you should reinvest and how you should do it

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Bull or Bear? ASX 2011

DISCLAIMER

Any projections made in this presentation are estimates only and no guarantee is provided that those projections will be realized. STE, Avestra and its officers, employees, agents, associates and alliance partners (“Associates”) may have or may obtain an interest in the securities referred to in this presentation and will receive commissions, brokerage and other fees from dealing in the securities or advising in respect of the proposed listing of the securities. STE believe that the information contained in this presentation was accurate at the time it was

  • compiled. STE and Avestra do not warrant that the information contained in this presentation

is accurate, complete, reliable or up to date and to the fullest extent permitted by law disclaims all liability of STE, Avestra and their Associates for any loss or damage suffered by any person by reason of the use by that person of, or their reliance on any information contained herein, whether arising from the negligence of STE, Avestra or its Associates or otherwise. Past performance is no indication of future performance.

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BIG Picture

“Trade with the Trend”

TOOLS : Indices: ASX200 (XJO) ASX200 Financials (XXJ) S&P500 ($SPX) + Housing & Banks Shanghai Composite ($SC) Advances – Declining Issues (XTO_AD) Indicators: Moving Average Pivot Points

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All Ords 4 Yrs.

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“Trade with the Trend” Trends, like sail boats in a strong wind, are easier to ride in the direction they are going.

Identify The Trend

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Falling Trend ASX200

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Rising Trend ? All Ords

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GFC Bear Rising Trend ? ASX200

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BILLABONG (BBG)

WEEKLY CHART

COAL & ALLIED

Rising Trend

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Rising Trend ? Rising Trend

12/06/2009

ASX200

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12/06/2009

Rising Trend Rising Trend ? ASX200

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WEEKLY CHART

NEPTUNE MARINE

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NEPTUNE MARINE

DELISTED

Falling Trend

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All Ords ASX100 Advance-Decline (XTO_AD) Divergence Falling Trend 2007-08

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All Ords ASX Financials (XXJ) Falling Trend Falling Trend 2007-08

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All Ords Divergence ASX Financials (XXJ) 2009-10

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All Ords Divergence ASX100 Advance/Decline (XTO_AD) 2009-10

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All Ords Divergence ASX Financials (XXJ) Falling Trend Falling Trend 2011

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ASX 200 Index (XJO)

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Where are We Now?

  • All Ordinaries Index (XAO)
  • ASX200 Financials-x-REITS Sector (XXJ)
  • S&P 500 Index ($SPX)
  • PHLX Bank Index ($BKX)
  • Shanghai Index ($SC)
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All Ords Index (XAO)

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ASX200 Financials-x-REIT (XXJ)

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S&P 500 Index ($SPX)

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PHLX Bank Index ($BKX)

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Shanghai Index ($SC)

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MENTOR - Questions

1) Teach : How markets work Indicators Multiple trading strategies * Tied to Software & Data - BEWARE 2) One comprehensive rule based trading system? 3) Do they trade that system & publish results?

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JB Trading

  • WHAT shares to Trade

Creating a Watchlist Fundamental Analysis

  • WHEN to Trade

Identify the Trend

  • HOW to Trade

Entry and Exit Signals Technical Analysis

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FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL Short (Daily) & Long Term (Weekly) INDUSTRY GROUP ANALYSIS – RISING TREND FUNDAMENTAL SHARE ANALYSIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RISING TREND OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’ SIGNAL VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL POSITION MANAGEMENT

JB Trading

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WHAT SHARES TO TRADE Creating a Watchlist

  • FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Broker Recommendations – Yearly Picks Software - ‘OracleSCAN’ Fundamental Criteria by Sector High Yield Price Discount to Target Price Newsletters – Expert Picks Magazines – YTE & AFR Smart Investor Newspaper- Takeover Targets

  • TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Charting Software Package – Watch Lists

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JB BOOK

WATCH LISTS:

GLOBAL RECOVERY RESOURCES & ENERGY MINING SERVICES ALAN HULL’S PORTFOLIO (10) SMALL CAPS HIGH-YIELDING STOCKS PRICE DISCOUNT TO TARGET JB FUNDAMENTALS

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OracleSCAN

Mkt Cap > 250 m PE Ratio < 25 EPS Grth > 5% ROE > 8% Profit Margin > .01

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TRADING STRATEGY

PARTS OF A TRADING SYSTEM :

  • SETUP CONDITIONS – Rising Trend (Weekly Chart)
  • TIMING OF ENTRY – RSI(7) o/s, JB Volatility Entry
  • STOPS :

INITIAL – Below the Recent Low TRAILING – JB Volatility Trailing Stop JB PROFIT TAKER

  • $$ MANAGEMENT - POSITION SIZING
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RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’

RSI COMPARES THE AVERAGE OF RISING PRICE CHANGE TO FALLING PRICE CHANGE

COAL & ALLIED

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RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’

RSI COMPARES THE AVERAGE OF RISING PRICE CHANGE TO FALLING PRICE CHANGE

CALTEX

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AMCOR

RSI COMPARES THE AVERAGE OF RISING PRICE CHANGE TO FALLING PRICE CHANGE

RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’

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VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL

AMCOR

RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’ VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL

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Volatility Entry Signal

Close > 2*ATR(10) From Low Close > 2*($0.20)(10) From ($2.20) Close > ($0.40) (10) From ($2.20) = $2.60

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JABIRU METALS

RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’ VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL

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Recent RSI Alerts – ASX300

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BRAMBLES

RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’ VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL

JB TRAILING STOP

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COAL & ALLIED

BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY

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CALTEX

BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY

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Safe Starter Stocks

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Rising Trend

Silver Lake (SLR) Sigma Pharm. (SIP) Resolute Min. (RSG) Regis Res. (RRL) Mesoblast (MSB) Map Group (MAP) Discovery Met. (DML) Beach Energy (BPT) Aston Res. (AZT) Troy Res. (TRY)

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Sigma Pharmaceuticals

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Sigma Pharmaceuticals

BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’

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Sigma Pharmaceuticals

BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’ RSI ‘ALERT’

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Regis Resources

BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’

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Regis Resources

BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’ RSI ‘ALERT’ ATAA Adel.

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MAP Group

BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’ RSI ‘ALERT’

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Long-Term Investing

From

Volatility Entries

www.sharetradingeducation.com

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COAL & ALLIED

BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’

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ENTRY WEEK JB TRAILING STOP WEEKLY CHART

COAL & ALLIED

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CALTEX

BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’

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CALTEX

ENTRY WEEK WEEKLY CHART JB TRAILING STOP

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OIL SEARCH

RSI ‘ALERT’ BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY

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WEEKLY CHART JB TRAILING STOP

OIL SEARCH

ENTRY WEEK

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What Am I Looking For Now?

Industry Groups:

  • Banks (XBAJ)
  • Commercial & Professional Services (XCSJ)
  • Consumer Services (XSRJ)
  • Diversified Financials (XDFJ)
  • Energy (XENJ)
  • Food & Staples Retailing (XFDJ)
  • Healthcare Equipment & Services (XHCJ)
  • Materials (XMAJ)
  • Pharmaceutical & Biotech (XPBJ)
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Consumer Services

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Consumer Services

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Diversified Financials

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Diversified Financials

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Health Care Equip. & Serv.

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Health Care Equip. & Services

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Energy

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Energy

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BECOME A MEMBER

  • f Jim Berg’s Newsletter

To receive your FREE copies of my:

#1: DVD ‘How to Maximise Profits and Minimise Losses’ ($125 value) #2: Ebook ‘How to Write Your Own Trading Plan’ ($97 value) #3: Weight-of-Evidence Stock Selection Tool ($97 value)

(Total $319 Bonus Value – Yours FREE Today Only)

Only $29.95/month - with no lock-in contract

(N.B: This Special Offer is NOT available on the website)

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www.sharetradingeducation.com

www.sharetradingeducation.com

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ASX Investor Education

Keep improving your knowledge of the sharemarket:

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