Assessing Root Causes Terry Cannon Institute of Development Studies, UK
Disaster Death Injury What do we Illness mean when we These Hunger/ Dehydration are what say a disaster we mean: Loss of Assets has happened? Livelihood loss or disruption Social & mental dislocation
“Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model Disaster Hazard Vulnerability Death component Flood Injury Cyclone Livelihood & its T E Illness resilience Earthquake R X I P Hunger/ Tsunami Base-line status G O Dehydration Well-being S Volcanic G U Loss of Assets eruption Self-protection E R R Drought E Livelihood loss or Social disruption Protection Landslide Social & mental Governance Biological dislocation
Vulnerability spectrum – different for each hazard Capacity / “Resilient” Vulnerable Governance - power Social protection Self-protection Baseline Livelihood
Vulnerability Sub-components Main determinants Measures & tools components • Financial assets • Amount & quality of • Household surveys of assets 1 • Physical assets assets owned or • Develop historical profile of impact of Livelihood • Human capital accessible disasters on employment, assets, & its • Natural capital • Liability of assets to productive and self-providing activities; use • Resilience of linkages damage or loss by a given as baseline to compare with future resilience between people & their hazard disasters employment • Dependence on • Resilience of linkages employment or other between people ’ s assets income-generating and income opportunities 2 • Nutritional status • Livelihood strength & • Nutrition surveys • Physical health resilience • Physical health Initial well- • Mental health • Security and freedom • Mental health being • Security from other stresses • Security- subjective surveys of people ’ s • Identity – including with perceptions or objectively through reported geographical location number of incidents • Identity – subjective survey; note- a key determinant in motivation for Self protection 3 • Safely built houses • Adequate income, which • Safe houses- observation against • Safely located houses is the result of adequate established standards for building Self- livelihood techniques & materials related to local protection • Access to relevant hazards materials, technical • Safe location – against local risk map, knowledge and probably developed with community construction skills • Motivation- through simple questions, • Motivation to take e.g. “ if gave $1000 what would you spend necessary steps it on? ”
Vulnerability Sub-components Main determinants Measures & tools components 4 • Disaster-resistant social • Adequate revenues (for • Key infrastructure built in local government and line with established building infrastructure: includes Social community institutions) codes knowledge, information, access protection • Political will and motivation • Social infrastructure … . to productive resources, (e.g. to implement building survey of KAP towards marketing and social networks codes, mitigation measures, disaster risks … ? • Collective interest community to protect schools and • Venn diagram before and institutions infrastructure etc.) after programme? • Disaster-resistant physical • Availability of relevant • Existence of plan, infrastructure: including schools, technical knowledge and knowledge of key life-saving health structures, government ability to implement measures, simulations offices, workplaces, water undertaken involving high % structures, bridges & roads of community,.? • Community response plan for major disasters: including EW, evacuation & life-saving • Social capital of people • Degree of democratic and • Institutional analysis 5 press freedom and • Venn Diagram – distance • Political capital of people Governance transparency and strength of stakeholders • Degree of openness of political • Rights of minorities and as perceived by community/ processes in the country women households • Inter-group discrimination • Level of inter-group rivalry • Stakeholder analysis • Level of gender inequality and and discrimination • Corruption index women ’ s rights • Rights of organisation of • Human rights index • Networks and institutions and NGOs and CBOs • Analysis of press, elections, their capacity to operate freely • NGO & CBO activities and • Degree of freedom of press freedom to operate
“Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model Social National & Vulnerability Structures Hazard International component D & Power Political R S Systems Economy Flood I Livelihood & Class O O Power its resilience Cyclone S relations Gender C Base-line Earthquake O A Demographics status Ethnicity Tsunami I Well-being Conflicts & S T A Caste War Volcanic Self- eruption T protection L Debt Crises Other power Drought relationships E C Social Environmental Protection Trends Landslide Attitudes to F R risk: culture A Climate Biological Governance & R change psychology 7 U Etc A
http://www.ifrc.org/world-disasters-report-2014
Social Climate National & Structures Related International & Power D Vulnerability Political Hazards R Systems S component Economy I Class O • Livelihood & O S Carbon based its resilience Flood growth Gender • Base-line C A O Cyclone status Power • Well-being Ethnicity I S Drought relations • Self- T A protection Landslide Caste T Environmental • Social Trends L Protection Biological E C Culture • Governance Debt Crises Disease F R Other power A Etc relationships R U 2 CC undermines livelihoods 3 Poverty hits A & increases exposure environment S 1 Climate change makes hazards worse M
Reverse engineering model Disaster + - Institution A H Death A Institution B Injury Wider political economy Illness Z Causation Hunger/ Thirst factors and + - Process A A processes Loss of Assets Livelihood loss or R + - Institution C disruption Culture, attitudes D to risk Social & mental + - dislocation Process B 10
Disaster Vulnerability Preparedness for Hazard mitigation preparedness response reduction (climate (with climate smart), development adaptation) Hazard Impacts 2 “Soft” 4 1 “Hard” 3 Gender, health, education, rights, organization A1 A2 A3 A4 A Death B1 B2 B3 B4 B Injury C1 C2 C3 C4 C Illness D1 D2 D3 D4 D Hunger/ water E1 E2 E3 E4 E Loss of assets F1 F2 F3 F4 F Livelihood loss or disruption G1 G2 G3 G4 G Social and mental dislocation
Cyclone impacts • Mortality has been reduced significantly (also in India) – 1970 Bhola 500,000? – 1991 Cyclone 140,000 – 2007 Sidr 10,000? – 2009 Aila 10,000? • Warnings • Evacuations (volunteers) • Polders/ sea walls (since 1960s, plus recent increase in investment) • Cyclone shelters (communal: govt. + Red Crescent • Household killa (self-built or NGO)
Key issue: protect assets & livelihoods • Cyclones damage homes, crops, fields, livestock, assets, bring illness, hardship • Sea water incursions with the surge render the farmland too salty for crops for several years • People are therefore displaced: typically they live on roads, other elevated areas, move to towns and cities (some to Dhaka), or in relief camps • There is no other farmland for them to go to
Research approach • What happened to livelihoods of cyclone victims after 2009 (and 2007?) • Is it possible to protect existing assets and livelihoods of vulnerable people from cyclones? • Have existing LH diversification approaches been successful? • Is it possible to introduce more non-farm livelihoods? • What can be done to ‘bypass’ existing power relations, especially land tenure?
The 1:100:1000 “cure to damage” ratio for climate change The amount being spent (public funds only) that increases the problem of climate change is currently a thousand times greater than the funds available to help overcome the problems (adaptation) • $1 billion current estimate of what is available annually for public funding of climate change support to developing countries for adaptation (for mitigation estimate about $10 billion) • $100 billion Most conservative estimate of what is required for adaptation (Green Growth report provides an overview of various needs assessments and does this for adaptation as well as mitigation) • $1 trillion Conservative estimate of amounts of public funding available for harmful practices: subsidies for fossil fuels, water practices that deplete resources, fisheries and agriculture. Recent meeting at IMF upgraded the number to $2 trillion Source: Inclusive Green Growth World Bank 2012 and Rob van den Berg (Global Environment Facility). See also Fifth Overall Performance Study of the GEF: Cumulative Evidence on the Challenging Pathways to Impact www.gefeo.org
Profits Taxation Private Public sector Bilateral F Bilateral U Funders: Funders: N private North governments D “ Development I ” Banks International orgs N UN system G Remittances South Tax? S NGOs governments P E N D Emergency “ Development ” I DRR CCA response: Health, education, N Relief, recovery WatSan, gender G Preparedness and prevention Externally-defined needs Response
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