April 12, 2018 at 9:00 10:30 am EDT Agenda Wi-Fi Welcome Remarks - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Resilience Measurement Practical Guidance Note Series April 12, 2018 at 9:00 – 10:30 am EDT

Agenda Wi-Fi Welcome Remarks Name: OFDA-Wireless Introduction Password: Hum@n1t@r1@n Overview of Guidance Notes 1 – 4 T witter info: Group Exercise #resilience #resiliencemeasurement Questions and Answers @REAL_Award Closing Remarks @USAID @MercyCorps

Speakers

Tiffany M. Griffin Adviser, Monitoring, Evaluation, and Strategic Analysis USAID Center for Resilience

RESILIENCE MEASUREMENT PRACTICAL GUIDANCE NOTE SERIES APRIL 12, 2018

T

• m Spangler

Director of Resilience and Livelihoods Save the Children Brad Sagara Senior Resilience Researcher Mercy Corps Sarah Henly-Shepard Senior Advisor - Climate Change & Resilience Mercy Corps Tim Frankenberger President and Co-founder TANGO International

Resilience Measurement Revealed

A Brief Overview April 2018

Our Resilience Measurement Highlighted

A Brief Overview April 2018

When you think of resilience measurement, what image comes to mind?

Image Source: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/subjects/what-can-you-do-physics-degree

Image Source: https://www.tes.com/lessons/LGyDN10XIQaZOg/boring

Image Source: http://www.dreams.metroeve.com/destruction/#.WsURRTOZOHo

OVERVIEW APRIL 2018

WHAT AND HOW

5 Guidance Notes

1. ASSESSMENT 2. MEASURING SHOCKS 3. MEASURING RESILIENCE CAPACITIES 4. CONDUCTING RESILIENCE ANALYSES 5. RESILIENCE MEASUREMENT AT THE ACTIVITY/PROJECT LEVEL

• Written by Mercy Corps in the lead, in partnership with TANGO International

and C4R

• SERIES  Digestible pieces
• Revisited annually-ish
• Complemented by other products, like online measurement e-module/training

and in-person workshops

WHY

OVERVIEW APRIL 2018

DEMAND:

• MISSION STAFF
• USAID/W
• IMPLEMENTING

PARTNERS

CLEAR UP MYTHS ILLUSTRATE OPTIONS DIALOGUE/ITERATE

Thank You

Tiffany M. Griffin tigriffin@usaid.gov www.fsnnetwork.org/REAL resiliencemeasurement@gmail.com

Guidance Note 1

Risk and Resilience Assessments

Guidance Note 1: Risk and Resilience Assessments APRIL 2018

Step-by-step guidance on:

• Risk & Resilience

Assessment planning & design

• Data collection
• Analysis
• Using results for

strategic planning

Why do a risk and resilience assessment?

Jonathan Drake for Mercy Corps

Guidance Note 1: Risk and Resilience Assessments APRIL 2018

What’s different about risk and resilience assessments?

Other assessments:

• Often single-sector /

small-scale

• Rely on cross-

sectional “snapshot” data

• Usually do not

assess root causes

• f risk

Resilience assessments:

• Systems dynamics
• Interacting, cross-scalar

factors over time/space

• Mixed-methods &

adaptive management

• Focus on current &

potential resilience capacities

• Flexible applications

Guidance Note 1: Risk and Resilience Assessments APRIL 2018

That’s great…what does it take?

Approximate Level of Effort Matrix

LOW MEDIUM HIGH Estimated Time 5-10 weeks 3-8 months >8 months Purpose, Scope & Scale Fewer sectors or development

• utcome

Wider range of sectors, development outcomes and geographies Broad range of sectors, development outcomes and geographies Data Collection & Sampling Reliance on existing analyses combined with limited field work and limited primary data Increased use of primary data with moderate geographical resolution and limited external technical studies Primary mixed method data at a high-level of spatial resolution supported by secondary data, perhaps multiple rounds Analysis Validate existing knowledge, limit timeframe of trend analysis and capacity characterizations Longer-term trend analyses with deeper characterization of risks and capacities Complete trend analyses coupled with in-depth characterization of risks and capacities Outputs Revisions to existing theories of change, shorter planning horizons Revised or new theories of change and knowledge products Detailed theories of change and/or detailed knowledge products, long-term planning

Guidance Note 1: Risk and Resilience Assessments APRIL 2018

How can they work?

Risk and Resilience Assessment Process, T eam & Decision-making Tradeoffs

Guidance Note 1: Risk and Resilience Assessments APRIL 2018

What can they show us?

Five Guiding Resilience Questions

Guidance Note 1: Risk and Resilience Assessments APRIL 2018

Assessment results are versatile and can be fit for purpose:

• Transformational Learning
• Systems Analysis
• Intervention plans
• Learning documents
• Theory of Change
• Research Plan + M&E

Framework

• Resilience-building targets

& strategies

Photo by Emma Roorda on Unsplash

How can we use the results?

Guidance Note 1: Risk and Resilience Assessments APRIL 2018

For example:

The decline of pastoralism in Karamoja, Uganda

Guidance Note 1: Risk and Resilience Assessments APRIL 2018

For example: Resilience Assessment

Theory of Change for Karamoja, Uganda

Think about…

Guidance Note 2

Measuring Shocks and Stresses

Guidance Note 2: Measuring Shocks and Stresses APRIL 2018

• Rationale
• Key measurement

considerations

• Planning for data

collection

• Analytical approaches

Why measure shocks and stresses?

Jonathan Drake for Mercy Corps

https://lifewithoptions.net/perspective/

Perspective Matters

Mountain or Molehill? (Covariate vs. Idiosyncratic)

Do not underestimate the molehill

Idiosyncratic Covariate Acute  Death of a family member  Pest infestation  Illness  Flood  Earthquake  Cyclone/ hurricane Chronic  Gender based violence  Social exclusion  Crime/ violence  Drought  Inter-group conflict  Population pressure

Interactions and downstream effects

Rules of thumb when measuring shocks

• Have a clear vision of what shocks to focus on,

population (and sub-populations) of interest, and ecological, social, political, and economic context

• As much as possible, use multiple, diverse measures of

the same phenomenon and triangulating the results

• Shocks and responses evolve over time. Having multiple

rounds of data collection captures this dynamic

• Knowing whether or not a shock has been experienced is

half the battle – there needs to be some measure of the severity of the shock

Data sources abound

Regional/National Household/ Community Individual

 Integrated Phase Classification (IPC)  Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET)  Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED)  Agricultural Market Information System  African Flood and Drought Monitor (AFDM)  Emergency Market Mapping and Analysis  Community early warning systems  Community health surveillance systems  Household quantitative surveys  Community quantitative surveys  Key informant interviews  Focus group discussions  Household quantitative surveys  Key informant interviews  Focus group discussions

Levels of Effort

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

 Baseline and end- line  Limited primary data on various shocks, integrated with secondary data if technical capacity is available  Baseline, mid-term, and end-line  Primary data on various shocks, integrated with secondary data  Multi-hazard maps leveraging secondary data  Baseline, mid-term, and end-line  Recurrent monitoring  Extensive primary and secondary data on various shocks

Guidance Note 3

Resilience Capacity Measurement

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement APRIL 2018

• Context-relevant

resilience capacities

• Resilience responses in

a Theory of Change

• Indicators & data

sources

• When and how to

collect data

Big picture

Similarities:

• Both require robust monitoring

systems to collect, aggregate, and report data to inform decisions

Differences:

• Specific indicators: resilience

capacity, shocks

• Possibly different data sources

M&E of resilience vs. “traditional” programs

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement

Resilience is an ability to manage or recover from shocks

Resilience measurement framework

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement

Absorptive Capacity Ability of households and communities to minimize exposure to shocks and recover quickly after exposure Adaptive Capacity Ability to make proactive, informed choices about their lives and livelihood strategies based on conditions Transformative Capacity Relates to system-level changes that ensures sustained resilience

Resilience capacities represent people’s potential to take steps to deal with shocks or stresses A set of positive conditions thought to enable households to achieve resilience to shocks

Resilience capacities

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement

Absorptive, adaptive & transformative

Adaptive

Bonding social capital Bridging social capital

Bridging social capital

Informal safety nets Shock preparedness & mitigation Household savings Hazard insurance (where applicable) Asset ownership

Absorptive

Conflict mitigation Linking social capital Human capital Access to financial services Livelihood diversity Exposure to information Asset ownership Aspirations & confidence to adapt

Transformative

Linking social capital Formal safety nets Access to markets Access to infrastructure Access to basic services Communal natural resources

Resilience capacity components

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement

Measurement Framework

Capacities operate at different levels

Individual Household Community Regional National

Absorptive Adaptive Transformative Risk aversion Aspirations Risk tolerance Financial savings, credit Assets Crop insurance Agricultural practices Market info Roads Mkt infrastructure Extension services Disaster Risk Management Flood protection infrastructure Safety nets Health insurance Public health monitoring Policies & regulations

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement

Identifying context-relevant resilience capacities

• ID capacities needed to elicit

desired responses

• Multiple capacities may be

needed for a response

• Example: use of drought

resistant seeds might require…

• input markets, access to

credit, technical knowledge, productive assets

• transformative capacities

related to extension services, research institutions, gender or caste equity, or infrastructure

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement

Identifying context-relevant resilience capacities

Next, ID important responses

• How people & groups at different levels USE resilience

capacities to deal with shocks & stressors Responses serve 3 functions: 1. Prevent or reduce exposure to a shock / stress

− evacuation or relocation, annual health checks

2. Prepare for an anticipated shock / stress

− disaster preparedness, investments in new livelihoods or inputs,

3. Act when shocks and stresses occur

− disaster response, use of credit, asset sales

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement

Resilience applied to a Theory of Change Framework

Define indicators & data sources

Data sources:

• Objective and subjective data
• Primary vs. secondary data

Capacity type Indicator Data source Agricultural techniques Number of farmers with access to technical services (index for different types) Population Based Survey Off-farm livelihood

• ptions

Number of trainees receiving counselling services on safe migration through formal and informal institutions Routine Monitoring

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement

When to collect data

• Baseline, endline
• Routine monitoring
• Recurrent monitoring after a shock
• Post-shock research

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement

How to collect data

• One way to track changes in resilience is to organize

capacities in a framework

PRIME example of M&E framework

Absorptive Adaptive Transformative Informal Safety Nets (e.g., savings group, zakat, women’s group) Livelihood diversity (e.g., crop production, livestock production, wage labor, salaried work) Basic services (e.g., schools, health center, vet services) Asset Ownership Human Capital Formal safety nets Bonding Social Capital Bridging Social Capital Linking Social Capital Bridging Social Capital Linking Social Capital

Guidance Note 3: Resilience Capacity Measurement

Guidance Note 4

Resilience Analysis

Guidance Note 4: Resilience Analysis APRIL 2018

Bottom Line Up Front

• 1. From thresholds and point

estimates to relationships and mixed methods analysis

• 2. Risks, shocks, and stresses
• 3. Dynamics

Guidance Note 4: Resilience Analysis

From thresholds and point estimates to relationships and mixed methods analysis

Resilience capacities Shocks and Stresses Well- being/development

• utcomes

Guidance Note 4: Resilience Analysis

The Role of Shocks, Stresses, and Risk

Risk forefronted Risk is measured objectively (what?) and subjectively (what? how experienced?) Capacities and responses capture how risk is dealt with Analysis captures the interrelationship between experiencing shocks, responding to shocks, and the connection between those experiences/reactions and well-being

Guidance Note 4: Resilience Analysis

Dynamics

• Value of panel data
• “Real”-time
• Recurrent monitoring surveys

Guidance Note 4: Resilience Analysis

I have been struck again and again by how important measurement is to improving the human condition. ~Bill Gates

Guidance Note 5 is coming soon!

Group Work! ~7 minutes

In-Person Group Work

• Gather in groups of 4-5 people

sitting around you

• Look under chair. At least one
• f you should have a question

taped under your chair.

• (5 min) Discuss question. If

more than one of you have a Q under chair, choose one question to discuss.

• Have 1 person take down

topline notes from the discussion. Online Group Work

• Participants will be sent into

different breakout rooms. Each room will have a question to discuss.

• (5 min) Use the chat function

to share your thoughts and discuss.

• One note taker per group will

consolidate topline points from discussion

Q & A