Analyst Presentation Q4 & FY/ 06 Results 22 February 2007 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Analyst Presentation Q4 & FY/ 06 Results

Thai Oil Public Company Limited 22 February 2007

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Disclaimer Disclaimer

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Contents Contents

• 2006 Key Highlights
• Business Outlook
• Progress of Investment Projects
• Consolidated Financial Performance

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Awards & Recognitions in 2006 Awards & Recognitions in 2006

LT: Baa1 LT: BBB LT: AA-(tha) & ST: F1+(tha) Highest Credit Ratings Among Pure-Play Refineries in the Region Best Newly Listed Company & Most Improved Company in Asia 1,330th : World’s 2000 Leading Companies 1 of 13 : Thai Listed Companies 33rd : Platts Top Companies in Asia 140th : Platts Top Companies Globally Best Corporate Governance Report Award 2006

• 2nd: Largest Revenues ~ US$ 6 bn. (5%
• f SET) - 9M/06
• 4th: Largest Net Profit ~ US$ 0.4 bn. (4%
• f SET) - 9M/06
• 6th Most Liquidly Daily Traded ~ US$ 12 mn. (3%
• f SET) - 2006
• 8th: Largest Market Cap. ~ US$ 3 bn. (2%
• f SET) - 2006

One of the Most Popular Stocks on the SET

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2006 Key Highlights 2006 Key Highlights

• Successfully increased refining capacity by 5 kbd

to 225 kbd from synergy project with TLB.

• Maintained high utilization of Refinery, TPX and

maximized lube base production (after 1st major turnaround and by co-processing Hydrocracker bottom).

• Maintained high integrated Refinery / TPX / TLB

margin through joint production planning, cooperation within PTT group, products diversification and margin improvement program:-

• Collaborated with PTT / RRC / IRPC for crude

sourcing and delivery, thereby reduced freight costs,

• Maximized jet production / export at the

expense of diesel during flooding in Thailand,

• Increased overall margin ~ US$ 0.50/bbl through

Hydrocarbon Management Review (HMR) and

• ther activities.
• Repaired & reinstalled transformer 2 months ahead
• f

plan and received satisfactory insurance compensation (BI of Bt. 328 mn. & PD of Bt. 66 mn.).

Operation & Commercial Investment

• All approved major projects progressed as planned.
• Engaged PMC for 500,000 L/D ethanol

plant (cassava-based) with an aim to complete project specification and detailed cost estimate by Q2/07.

• Signed JV agreement with PDI and Mitr Phol to

study & develop 100,000 L/D ethanol plant (based

• n sugar cane) at Maesod, Tak to diversify

feedstock sources.

Finance

• Paid annual dividend of Bt 3.50/share (40% payout
• vs. min. stated 25%) & 1st interim dividend of Bt.

1.50/share.

• Diversified sources of funds by issuing inaugural

THB bond of Bt. 5,500 mn. (AA- Fitch’s) & Cross Currency Swap to US$.

• Successfully negotiated to reduce cost of existing

domestic syndicated loans by ~ 1.375% or Bt. 72 mn./yr.

• Prepaid, repaid & refinanced loans, thus lowering

interests by ~ Bt. 134 mn. in 2006.

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TOP Group TOP Group’ ’s Integrated Margin s Integrated Margin

4.65 10.62 2.70 1.51 6.62 4.96 1.82 1.57 2.86 2.19 2.09 0.24 0.64 1.53 0.81 0.87 0.38 0.54

Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06 TOP Acct GRM TPX TLB

7.00 12.56 4.57 7.69

Integrated Margin (US$/bbl)

6.37

• 8

%

• TOP’s integrated refinery & petrochem
• perations lead to increased and more

stable margins.

• Group’s integrated margin stood at

$7.69/bbl, 8% reduction vs. 25% drop of GRM.

8.39

PX – ULG 95

Plat

+42%

402 398 732 575 371 527

40 3 399 7 33 57 6

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/05 FY/06 (US$/T)

LB - HSFO

480 525 623 687 579 331

48 1 526 624 6 88

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/05 FY/06

+ 7 5 %

(US$/T)

L/R

Crude

GRM Oil Products

• 25%

(US$/bbl)

2.70 1.51 6.62 4.96 10.62 4.65

• Mrk. Mrg.

Stock G/(L)

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/05 FY/06

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Improved Operations Improved Operations

2006 Net Profit 7,497 5,666 2,322 1,573 318 30 ∆ YoY

• 2,099

+1,996 +724 +1,130

• 154

+1 %∆ YoY

• 22%

+54% +45% +255%

• 33%

+3%

105 96 82 74 92 91

104 97 71 77 92 92

FY/05 FY/06 (%)

TOP TPX TLB IPT TP TM TOP TOP TPX TPX TLB TLB IPT IPT TP TP TM TM

Refinery Utilization PX Production Lube Production Availability Utilization Utilization

2005 & 2006

(Bt. mn.)

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• Q4/06 - While GRM dropped significantly, subsidiaries (TPX, TLB & IPT) contributed strongly

to Group’s bottom line, Net Profit from Operation in Q4/06 was Bt. 1,840 mn.

• FY/06 - Group's Net Profit from Operation increased marginally (by 4% YoY), thanks to

strong GRM in Q2/06 and robust PX & LB margins, especially in 2H/06.

Net Profit from Operation by Sectors – FY/05 & FY/06

• Bt. 16,647 mn.
• Bt. 15,948 mn.

+4%

Refinery 61% PX 23% LB 10% Power 6%

FY/05

Financial Highlights Financial Highlights

PX 33% Refinery 43% LB 13%

FY/06

Power 11%

6,338 5,351 3,691 4,086 3,531 6,878 9,737 5,993 6,254 3,843 4,803 3,438 2,521 1,840 10,232 8,126

EBITDA 05 EBITDA 06 NP fr. Oper. 05 NP fr. Oper. 06

Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 (Bt. mn.) 29,003 15,948 25,014 16,647

*Exclude other activities (Gain & Loss from Fixed Asset sold & Assets Impairment)

+4% YoY

• 14%

YoY

EBITDA & Net Profit from Operation by Quarters

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Contents Contents

• 2006 Key Highlights
• Business Outlook
• Progress of Investment Projects
• Consolidated Financial Performance

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Consolidated Profit & Loss Statement Consolidated Profit & Loss Statement

• 12%

36.23 41.17

• 4%
• 12%

36.23 37.64 41.17 Bt/US$ - ending +4% 16,647 15,948

• 51%
• 27%

1,840 3,783 2,521 Net Profit from Operation

• 102%

(52) 2,805 0%

• 100%

1 2,756 Gain/(Loss) fr. Other Act.*

• 11%

(1,917) (2,152) +3%

• 8%

(496) (481) (538) Interest Expenses

• 1%

14% 15% 0% +3% 7% 7% 4% Effective Tax Rate (%)

• 12%

8.13 9.19

• 51%
• 65%

0.90 1.85 2.59 EPS (Bt/sh.)

• 1%

9,098 9,157

• 24%
• 56%

2,266 3,000 5,113 Subsidiaries

• 22%

7,497 9,596

• 154%
• 359%

(425) 783 164 Thaioil

• 12%

16,595 18,753

• 51%
• 65%

1,841 3,783 5,277 Net Profit

• 16%

(2,847) (3,406)

• 50%
• 40%

(150) (301) (249) Tax Expense +438% 3,489 (1,032) +66% +2,137% 850 511 38 FX Gain/(Loss)

• 20%

17,922 22,538

• 60%
• 50%

1,636 4,054 3,270 EBIT

• 14%

25,014 29,003

• 43%
• 28%

3,438 5,993 4,803 EBITDA +12% 279,109 249,111

• 21%
• 8%

61,723 77,807 67,081 Sales Revenue % YoY FY/06 FY/05 % QoQ % YoY Q4/06 Q3/06 Q4/05 (Bt. mn.)

*Other Activities mean Gain & Loss from Fixed Asset sold & Assets Impairment.

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14,395 18,168 14,395 18,168 29,099 15,580 7,308 21,492 8,853 4,166 10,015 5,894 4,976 5,842 2,600 2,600 1,170 1,170

FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 JPY Loan THB Loan US$ Loan US$ & THB Bonds

100 200 300 400 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Diversification & Cost Reduction Diversification & Cost Reduction

Debt Portfolio 40,284 35,869 25,848

(60%) (16%)

• Bt. mn.

6.3% 60 / 40 49 / 51 84 / 16 Conso. TOP Only FY/06 6.2% Cost of Debt 73 / 27 Bond / Loan* 51 / 49 Fixed / Float 90 / 10 US$ / Bt. TOP 82% IPT 16% TP 2%

Consolidated Debt TOP Group’’s Repayment Schedule

• Bt. 30,452 mn.

(-US$ 841 mn.)

$ 350 mn. Euro Bond $ 72 mn. BHT Bond As of 31 Dec’06

30,452 28,504 24,934

*THB Bond swapped into US Loan with floating interest rate

(24%)

Consolidated Repayment Schedule

US$

Remarks: No long-term debts for TLB & TM , Numbers based on FX = Bt. 38/US$

31 30 148 118 145 39 97 12 350

$ 72 mn. BHT Bond

• Group’s

total debt at YE/06 reduced to Bt. 30,452 mn. due mainly to prepayment / repayment

• f LT loans, by Bt. 8,191 mn. in

2006.

• TPX has successfully secured

new attractive LT loan in Q4/06 to finance expansion.

• TOP’s

inaugural Bt. 5,500 THB bond helps smoothen repayment profile. Consolidated TOP Only

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Financial Strength Financial Strength

Treasury Policy Net Debt / Equity <= 1.0x Net Debt / EBITDA <= 2.0x

13.1 13.5 11.1 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.4

2004 2005 FY/06

ICR Net Debt / EBITDA Net Debt / Equity

(Times)

Financial Ratios Balance Sheet

40,284 35,869 76,292

48,390

72,813 21,417 30,452

Current Assets Non-current Assets Total Equities Total Assets

115,427 124,169

Other Liabilities LT Debt

• Bt. mn.

FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 124,682

Dividend

• Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of net profit after

reserves, subject to investment plans. Dividend Payments for FY/06 Result Interim Dividend

• Bt. 1.50/sh.

Annual Dividend

• Bt. 3.50/sh.

Closing of Register Book : 21 Mar’07 Payment : 3 May’07

7.82 9.19 8.13 3.50 3.50 1.80 25% 40% 45% FY/04 FY/05 FY/06

EPS Total Dividend 25% Min. Div. Payout Bt./Sh. Interim Final

1.50 2.00

Payout 25% 40% 45% Yield 3.5% 5.5% 6.7%

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Changes in Accounting Standards Changes in Accounting Standards

1 Jan’07 with Retro Adjustment 1 Jan’07 with Retro Adjustment Implementation

• To comply with FAP, expected to

be announced in 2007

• To

better reflect company’s business & financial position

• In line with common industry

practice To comply with the Federation of Accounting Professions on Accounting Standard (FAP) announcement, dated 11 Oct 2006 Rationale Company Alone & Consolidated F/S Company Alone (No impact on conso. F/S) Impact on F/S Weighted Average (WA) Cost Method New Standard Last-in-First-out (LIFO) Equity Method Previous Standard

• No implication on financial ratios

as per loan covenants and / or treasury policy levels

• No impact on ability to pay

dividends

• Value of inventories better reflect

prevailing prices

• Reduce volatility of stock

gain/loss Others Crude & Feedstock Inventory Investment in Subsidiaries / Affiliates

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Contents Contents

• 2006 Key Highlights
• Business Outlook
• Progress of Investment Projects
• Consolidated Financial Performance

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TOP Group TOP Group’ ’s Major CAPEX Programs s Major CAPEX Programs

Total

Total TPX Expansion SBM Expansion New Gas Turbine CDU-3 Revamp

Projects (US$ mn.)

Q4/07 Q3/07 Q2/07 Q4/07

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 COD 34 59 125 9 22 12 78 72 6 66 210 49 225 419 693

On-going

218 43 150 282

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Details & Progress of Investment Projects Details & Progress of Investment Projects

Details Work Progress as of End-Jan’07 CDU-3 Revamp Projects Size : + 50 kbd (CDU Capacity) Cost : US$ 218 mn. (US$ 4,360/bbl) IRR : ~ 28% based on US$ 4.5/bbl GRM EPCM : Foster Wheeler

• Exp. C.O.D.: Q4/07

Overall Work Progress: 58%

• Installation of new KMT unit scheduled

to be completed in Mar’07.

• Substation, cooling tower and new

crude furnace construction work is in progress. Prior to commissioning of the expansion, CDU-3 will be shutdown for 2 months in Q4/07 for major turnaround & tie-in with the new facilities.

Unit 2350 New KMT New Crude Furnace F- 2102 Foundation New Scot Unit Foundation

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Details & Progress of Investment Projects Details & Progress of Investment Projects

Details Work Progress as of End-Jan’07 New Gas Turbine Projects Size : 38 MW Cost : US$ 43 mn. EPC : CTCI PMC : Foster Wheeler

• Exp. C.O.D.: Q2/07

Overall Work Progress: 95%

• Gas Turbine, Generator and Heat

Recovery Steam Generator installed.

• Construction work is in progress.

Gas Turbine and Generator Package Transformer Auxiliary / Local Control Room

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Details & Progress of Investment Projects Details & Progress of Investment Projects

Details Work Progress as of End-Jan’07 SBM Expansion Projects Size : 52” diameter * 14.5 km long pipeline (to receive crude fr. VLCC @ 2 mn. bbl) Cost : US$ 150 mn. EPC : SAIPEM PMC : Bechtel

• Exp. C.O.D. : Q3/07

Overall Work Progress: 49%

• Major equipment and 52” concrete

coated steel pipe are scheduled to deliver to site as planned.

• On-shore construction work started in

Jan’07.

• Subsea pipe laying will be started in

Apr’07.

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Details & Progress of Investment Projects Details & Progress of Investment Projects

Details Work Progress as of End-Jan’07 TPX Expansion Projects Size : +480 KTA Aromatics (add.)

+PX 141 KTA +MX 18 KTA +BZ 177 KTA +Tol 144 KTA

Cost : US$ 282 mn. EPC : Bechtel PMC : Foster Wheeler

• Exp. C.O.D.: Q4/07

Overall Work Progress: 42%

• Foundation work for new units

completed.

• Erection of storage tanks started in

Dec’06.

• Piping installation outside battery limit is

in progress. Prior to commissioning of the expansion, TPX will be shutdown for 2 months in Q4/07 for major turnaround & tie-in with the new facilities.

H-1601/B- 4007 Demolition Work Completed Foundation work inside TATORAY Big Mat. Foundation in the New Process Area

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TOP Group TOP Group’ ’s Major CAPEX Programs s Major CAPEX Programs

2009 Specialties 2011 Euro IV2)

Total

Total 730 MW IPP

Ethanol 0.1ML/Day1) Ethanol 0.5ML/Day

TPX Expansion SBM Expansion New Gas Turbine CDU-3 Revamp

Projects (US$ mn.)

2011 Q1/09 Q4/08 Q4/07 Q3/07 Q2/07 Q4/07

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 COD 34 59 125 9 22 12 78 72 6 66 210 92 58 4 8 103 84 163 49 225 515 100 111 213 153 1,366

On-going Under Development

218 43 150 282 150 12 350 50 50 100 45 16 61

1)Investment for 30% equity stake 2)Based on 50 ppm sulphur in gasoline & diesel Not yet confirmed on project’s holding stake

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0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50

Sugar Cane Cassava

TOP TOP’ ’s s Ethanol Project Progress Ethanol Project Progress

> 15% > 15% Project IRR Finalize detailed feasibility study Prepare project specifications & finalize detailed cost estimation Current Status Q1/09 Q4/08 Expected COD Sugar Cane (~0.5 mn. T/Y) Tapioca chips (~0.5 mn. T/Y) Feedstock

• Padaeng Industry (35%)
• Mitr Phol Sugar Group (35%)

Under discussion Partners with TOP Maesod, Tak, Thailand Central, Thailand Location US$ 150 mn. 0.5 mn. L/D US$ 40 mn.

• Est. Investment

0.1 mn. L/D Capacity Ethanol Plant

US$/L Grain (EU) Corn (China)* Sugar Cane (TH) Sugar Cane (Brazil) As of 2006

Source: W orldwatch Institute, except *Food & Economy R esearch Institute of Jilin Province

Cellulose

Comparison of Production Cost Analysis

Cassava (TH) Corn (US) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3

• Import parity price from Brazil has been agreed

to be used as domestic price which is currently traded at Bt. 19.3 per litre.

• With new Ethanol capacity come on stream in

2007, campaign for the use of Gasohol 91 will be promoted soon.

• Surplus production will have to be exported, if

economical.

Latest Development

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TOP TOP’ ’s s New IPP Bidding New IPP Bidding

• Expected 3,000-4,000 MW capacity during 2011-2013.
• Unit and Plant Size Restriction: 800 and 1,600 MW,

respectively.

• Annual capacity will be announced following finalization
• f the new load forecast and power development plan in

early-2007. RFP issued Apr’07 Jul Oct Jan’08 Apr Jul Oct Oct’11 Oct’12 Bid submission Preferred bidders named PPA signed COD – Gas plants COD – Coal plants

Timetable for New IPP Bidding

Source: IPP Solicitation Conference held by EPPO on 15 Dec’06

Key Policies Details for New Bidding Opportunity for TOP

TOP is in advantageous position given infrastructure available for additional 2*730 MW power plants:-

• Land of 100 Rais (40 acres)
• 28” natural gas / raw water pipeline
• 230 KV transmission line and available diesel oil storage facilities for back up
• EIA approval obtained
• State-owned enterprise (SOE) and any bidder that is

directly or indirectly owned by SOE more than 50% is not allowed to bid.

• US$ indexation of Availability Payment is partially allowed

if FX moves more than +/- 2 Baht around the reference rate.

• EIA approval & many Community Development Programs

are required prior to PPA execution.

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Contents Contents

• 2006 Key Highlights
• Business Outlook
• Progress of Investment Projects
• Consolidated Financial Performance

24 China1) 6,791 41 6 386 666 550 Japan 4,445

• 56
• India

2,771 21 64 751 256 Taiwan 1 ,265 28

• Thailand

1 ,042

• 1

1 5

• Pakistan

282

• 1

7

• Vietnam

5

• 1

21 Others 6,966

• 88
• 25

Total 23,567 654 555 1 ,588 952 2009-10F Kbd Jul'06 Existing 200 6F 2007F 2 008F

• Delay of a few refinery projects in China

and latest regional oil demand forecast support tight supply up to 2010.

• New refineries and expansions in M/E are

needed to fulfill the gap, especially LPG, Naphtha and Fuel Oil.

1)Include Monkolia 20 kbd in 2007 2)The Com

pany

Regional Oil Demand Asia Pacific Refining Capacity Additions

China 6,492 4.3% 6,903 8,634 5.8% Japan 5,102 0.5% 5,073 5,018 (0.3%) India 2,333 1.3% 2,524 2,858 +4.1% South Korea 2,237 0.9% 2,212 2,314 +1.1% Thailand 970 2.3% 1,009 1,112 +2.5% Singapore 816 5.0% 866 1,105 +6.3% Others 5,207 1.1% 5,102 5,866 +3.6% Total Demand 23,157 2.0% 23,689 26,907 +3.2% Total Supply 22,964 0.8% 24,221 27,316 +3.1% ME Sur/Def 1,305 1,502 1,786 2006F 2010F % Annual Growth (2006-10F) Kbd 2005A % Growth

2)

26,907 25,293 23,157 23,689 24,512 26,364 27,316 22,964 24,221 24,826

2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2010F Total Demand Total Supply Kbd

Source: FACTS, Fall 2006

Asia-Pacific Demand/Supply Balance

90%

Regional Oil Demand/Supply Outlook Regional Oil Demand/Supply Outlook

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Demand PX Total Capacity Operating Rate 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 % Op. Rate

Domestic PX Demand & Supply Global Total PX Supply / Demand & Operating Rate

PX Business Outlook PX Business Outlook

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

• Mn. T.

10 11 World Demand Growth Americas Europe Africa/Mideast Asia/Pacific Source: CMAI & Company

400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

ATC Exxon TPX Demand KTA 11

• Delay of a few Chinese & M/E PX projects

(~2.4 mn. T/Y) from 2009 to 2010 will help extend high operating rate period till end 2009.

Global PX Supply & Demand Growth

• Mn. T.
• With new Indorama’s and expansion of Siam

Mitsui’s PTA plants in 2006, Thailand remains net importer of PX till Q3/08 when new ATC II project will be completed.

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LB Business Outlook LB Business Outlook

Regional Base Oil Supply & Demand

6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Supply Demand

KTA

• Delay in new capacity coming on-stream

is the main reason for limited supply.

• Shortage of base oil is expected to

continue in 2007 but could turn into balance after 2008 when new capacity additions commence operations.

Global Base Oil Market

2000

2005

2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015

Rest of the world

• W. Europe

Asia Pacific

• N. America

Demand by Region Demand by Group Group 3 Group 2 Group 1

• Global base oil demand is expected to

grow by 2% CAGR until 2015. However, demand for Group I is forecasted to decline by 1% CAGR.

• Although demand for Group I declined,

regional base oil supply of Group I is still tight due to permanent shutdown of some base oil plants in Australia & Philippines.

Source: Kline, Shell Lubricants

90%

27

Conclusions Conclusions

• 2006 was another excellent year for TOP:-
• Utilization rate for TOP’s group was at a high level from group business

management and joint production planning.

• Overall margin improvement program of TOP group (Refinery/TPX/TLB)

and cooperation within PTT group (PTT/TOP/IRPC/ARC/BCP) contributed to US$ +0.50/bbl GRM.

• All major expansion projects progressed as planned.
• Our strong balance sheet provide greater opportunity for TOP group to

steadily grow its business while minimizing financial risk.

• 2007 will be another challenging year for TOP:-
• To complete all major projects as planned and within budget.
• To prepare and submit Bid for new IPP and be selected as a preferred

Bidder for at least one block of 730 MW (NG fired power plant).

• To proceed Ethanol projects and become major Cassava based Ethanol

Producer.

• To further optimize TOP group asset and strengthen cooperation within

PTT Petrochemical & Refining group.

28

Appendices Appendices

29

PTT Group 80%

Thai Lube Base (TLB)

9% 55% SPP program 3-on-1 Combined cycle Electricity 118 MW Steam 168 T/hr Utility Supply to Group IPP program 2-on-1 Gas-fired, Combined cycle Electricity 700 MW

Related Business & Earnings Stability

Thai Paraxylene (TPX)

Capacity: Current: 348 KTA (PX) 72 KTA (MX) Q4/07: 900 KTA (Total) 489 KTA (PX) 177 KTA (Bz) 144 KTA (To) 90 KTA (MX) Value Enhancement Capacity: Lube Base oil: 270 KTA A fleet of 5 oil & petrochemical vessels with int’l classifications Total capacity: approx 30,000 DWT Multi-product Pipeline Capacity: 26,000

• mn. Litres/Y.

Product Marketing / IT Support

PTT 20% TOP 24% 100% 56% 100% 100%

Capacity: Current: 225 Kbd

Refinery Petrochem/ Lube Base Oil Power/ Renewable Energy Transportation / Others

PTT 26% J-Power 19%

Core Refining Operations Q4/07: 275 kbd

20%

Thaioil (TOP) Independent Power (Thailand) (IPT) Thaioil Power (TP) Thaioil Marine (TM) Thappline PTT ICT Solutions (PTT ICT)

30%

Maesod Clean Energy

Mitr Phol Group 35% Padaeng 35% Sugar Cane Based Ethanol

Q1/09: 0.1 mn. L/D

PTT 31% Others 60%

Plat 1.8 MTA

TOP’s Group Structure TOP TOP’ ’s s Group Structure Group Structure

30

Volatile Oil Product / Crude Prices & Volatile Oil Product / Crude Prices & Spreads in FY/06 Spreads in FY/06

US$/bbl US$/bbl Q1/06 : Soften GRM carried over from Q4/05

• Increase in crude prices faster than product prices

due to geopolitical tension in Iran (nuclear enrichment program) & Nigeria (ethnic unrest),

• Weak heating oil demand due to late winter.

Q2/06 : Record high GRM

• Unprecedented high level of global & regional

turnarounds,

• US phasing out of MTBE (summer ULG spec.),
• Very high gasoline imports to the US,
• Late winter in North Asia.

Q3/06 : Slump in ULG & FO prices & weaker GRM than expected

• Built-up crude stock in US & OECD countries,
• No hurricane as widely expected,
• End of US driving season,
• Easing geopolitical concerns in Iran and Nigeria.

Q4/06 : Depressed margin

• Mild winter in the region & US,
• Hefty US crude and heating oil stock,
• Very high Japanese kerosene stock due to warm weather,
• Limited gasoline demand from the US due to high stock.

Oil Product & Crude Prices (US$/bbl) Product - Dubai Spreads (US$/bbl)

• 25
• 15
• 5

5 15 25 35

US$/bbl US$/bbl

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Q1/05 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4

Diesel Gasoline Dubai Fuel Oil Jet GO-DB ULG95-DB FO-DB Jet-DB

Q1/05 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4

31 709 765 739 689 695 738 722 84% 89% 91% 91% 87% 87% 89%

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 4Q/05 1Q/06 2Q/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export Petrochem & Others Utilization Rate

Softening Domestic Demand in FY/06 Softening Domestic Demand in FY/06

(Intake) 903 921 944

Domestic Oil Demand / Refinery Intake (Kbd)

867 940 928 906

48 57 BCP 89 151 ESSO 169 156 157 234 Intake (Kbd) Utilization (%) 104 SPRC 79 108 105 IRPC RRC TOP

Intake / Utilization by Major Refineries in FY/06 (Kbd)

• Impact of heavy flooding, slowdown in industrial &

transportation sectors (Diesel) in Q3/06 and lower power consumption (FO) Q4/06 mainly caused oil demand in FY/06 to decline to 722 kbd (-2% YoY).

• Utilization dropped to 87%

in Q4/06, mainly due to maintenance shutdown at TOP (Oct) & IRPC (Nov).

• Apart from being shutdown for almost 1 month,

TOP maintained high utilization level at 105% .

• In FY/06, the country’s overall utilization was on
• avg. at 89%

. Oil Demand by Product Volume in FY/06 (Kbd)

93 125 74 338 107 124 101 78 317 101

05 06 05 06 05 06 05 06 05 06

% Δ +9% 0% +5%

• 6%
• 6%

kbd

Source: DOEB, Ministry of Energy and Company *RRC’s total intake capacity 145 kbd from its Offering Memorandum

LPG Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel FO Utilization

32

11% 14% 4% 15% 7% 49%

TOP TOP’ ’s s Refinery Intake and Sales Breakdown Refinery Intake and Sales Breakdown

80% 81% 16% 10% 11% 14% 41% 38% 43%

17% 19% 11%

26% 26% 17% 6% 6% 14% 14%

3%

6%

TOP’s Crude Mix and Oil Product Yield TOP’s Customer Sales Breakdown

Middle Heavy Light

LPG Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel

PTT

50% 13% 10% 4% 12% 11%

Fuel Oil

TPX Shell / Caltex Domestic Independents BCP Export = 14%

7% 7%

Export = 18%

FY/05 +3%

• In FY/06 TOP was able to process more local crude up

to 16% at the expense of more expensive Far East crude.

• With highly complex & integrated facilities, up to 81%
• f crude came from M/E (heavy sour crude, i.e.

Murban & Oman) , allowing the company to capitalize

• n sweet-sour crude differentials.
• Approx. 60%
• f TOP production was middle distillates

to meet country’s demand & yield higher margin. FY/05 FY/06

F/E Local M/E

• TOP increased export sales in FY/06 by 4%

YoY as it switched to focus on jet export during Q3/06 to capture higher margin and to adjust with lower demand in Thailand. +12.1 70.0 57.9 Tapis (F/E)

• 13.1

15.2 19.1 11.7 61.5 FY/06

• 9.0

14.7 18.3 12.8 49.3 FY/05

• 4.1

+0.5 +0.8

• 1.1

+12.2 Δ Dubai (M/E) Diesel - Dubai Fuel Oil - Dubai Jet - Dubai ULG 95 - Dubai

Oil Prices / Spreads – MOPS (US$/bbl) 14,351 Mn. L

FY/06

14,843 Mn. L

Thailand’s Oil Demand

33

TOP’s Gross Refining Margin - LIFO

GRM & GRM & TOP TOP’ ’s s Performance Performance

2,415 2,056 428 13,334 164 783 9,596 20,356 7,497

• 425

105 108 98 104 105

EBITDA Net Profit % Utilization

(Bt. mn.)

TOP’s Performance

• 22%
• 154%
• 359%

NP

• 34%
• 79%
• 82%

EBITDA %YoY %QoQ %YoY FY/06 Q4/06

• In Q4/06, TOP’s utilization reduced to 98%

due to planned shutdown of CDU-1 for 25 days in

• October. FY/06’s utilization however remained

high at 105% .

• With slow winter demand in Q4/06, market GRM for

TOP decreased to US$ 3.62/bbl.

• Inventory loss of US$ 2.11/bbl was realized in

Q4/06 due to higher cost of crude purchased in the previous quarters. Accounting GRM therefore reduced to US$ 1.51/bbl for the period.

• FY/06, market GRM remained at US$ 4.92/bbl. With

minimal stock gain, accounting GRM reduced YoY by 25% to US$ 4.96/bbl.

• As a result, Q4/06 reported a net loss of Bt. 425
• mn. (-359%

YoY). However, the company remained to report a net profits for FY/06 of Bt. 7,497 mn. (-22% YoY). Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06

• 2

2 % 2 2 %

3.75 8.00 5.08 4.92 0.90 2.62 1.54 0.04 3.62 4.35 3.85

• 0.85
• 2.11
• 1.65

Market GRM Stock Gain/Loss

3.00 2.70 1.51 6.62 4.96

(US$/bbl) Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06

10.62 4.65

34

PX Margin & PX Margin & TPX TPX’ ’s s Performance Performance

• 200

400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

(US$/Ton)

PX MX ULG 95

PX, MX and ULG 95 Spot Prices / Margins

527 371

Q1/05 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4

512 332 264 378 402 398 732 575 PX-ULG 95

(Bt. mn.)

TPX’s Performance

1,354 2,110 1,419 4,376 6,125 5,666 3,670 1,323 1,965 1,299 94 97 91 97 96

EBITDA Net Profit % Production

Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06 +54%

• 33%

+2% NP +40%

• 33%

+5% EBITDA %YoY %QoQ %YoY FY/06 Q4/06 + 5 4 % + 5 4 %

• In Q4/06, TPX’s utilization dropped to 97%

due to shutdown for catalyst change for 5 days. FY/06’s utilization, however, remained high at 96% .

• PX – ULG 95 spread narrowed to US$ 575/T in

Q4/06 which reflected softening PX price at a higher magnitude than its feedstock.

• FY/06, PX – ULG 95 spread rose YoY by 42%

to US$ 527/T, reflecting regional tight supply as well as limited arbitrate from the US aggravated by MTBE phasing out.

• With significant improvement in performance,

TPX totally repaid LT loans of Bt. 1,331 mn. in Oct’06, thus reducing interest by Bt. 134 mn.,

• As a result, TPX reported a net profit of Bt. 1,419
• mn. in Q4/06 while it registered a record net

profit for FY/06 of Bt. 5,666 mn. (+54% YoY).

35

LB Margin & LB Margin & TLB TLB’ ’s s Performance Performance

500 SN & HSFO Spot Prices / Margins

(Bt. mn.)

TLB’s Performance

278 843 716 2,768 247 697 572 2,322 1,767 1,598 81 94 84 71 82

EBITDA NP fr. Oper. % Production

Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06 +45%

• 18%

+132% NP fr. Oper. +57%

• 15%

+158% EBITDA %YoY %QoQ %YoY FY/06 Q4/06

• 200

400 600 800 1,000 1,200

HSFO 500 SN

(US$/Ton)

296 282 318 429 480 525 623 687 500–HSFO

Q1/05 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4

579 331

*Exclude TLB’s impairment reversal of Bt. 2,894 mn. & gain from assets sold of Bt. 154 mn. in Q4/05 & FY/05

+45% +45%

• Utilization dropped to 84%

in Q4/06 due to shutdown for a partial catalyst change in TOP’s HCU-1. Nonetheless, FY/06’s registered a record utilization at 94% due in to catalyst change during major turnaround in Q1/06 & HCU bottom processing.

• 500 SN – HSFO spread further strengthened to US$

687/T in Q4 due to softening feedstock cost.

• 500 SN – HSFO spread for FY/06 rose to US$ 579/T

(+75% ), reflecting regional tight supply due to shutdown of regional lube base plants & widening gap between gasoil – fuel oil.

• TLB also enjoyed the benefit from synergy with

TOP, e.g. reduction in fuel cost from using cheaper refinery fuel oil from TOP.

• Despite higher corporate income tax in Q4/06, TLB

reported a record operating profit of Bt. 572 mn. Net profit for FY/06 of was Bt. 2,322 mn. (+45% YoY).

36

11 20 15 81 7 2 30 82

• 1

29 93 90 90 92 91

EBITDA NP fr. Oper. % Production

IPT, TP & TM Performance IPT, TP & TM Performance

(Bt. mn.)

IPT’s Performance

538 763 710 1,996 274 563 577 1,573 1,638 443 87 98 91 77 74

EBITDA Net Profit % Production

Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06 + 2 5 5 % + 2 5 5 % (Bt. mn.)

TP’s Performance

198 203 154 724 119 84 44 318 790 472 95 97 89 92 92

EBITDA Net Profit % Production

Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06

• 33%

33% (Bt. mn.)

TM’s Performance

+3% +3% Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06

• IPT’s utilization in Q4/06 remained at 91%

, resulting in FY/06 utilization of 74% following resuming full operation since Jun’06.

• With the remaining insurance claim revenue of Bt. 231 mn., IPT

reported net profit of Bt 577 mn in Q4/06. Coupled with FX gain

• f Bt 523 mn, IPT’s net profit for FY/06 increased to Bt. 1,573
• mn. (+255%

YoY).

• TP’s

utilization declined to 89% in Q4/06 due to 10-day shutdown for Hot Gas Path Inspection. FY/06 utilization remained at 92% . TP’s net profit reduced 33% YoY due to higher utility fuel cost & corporate income tax.

• Excluding gains from sales of 2 TM’s vessels amounting of Bt.

55 mn., net profit from operation increased by Bt. 1 mn. YoY.

*Exclude gain from 2 vessels sold of Bt. 55 mn. in FY/05

37

164

• 425

2

• 1

119 274 247 1,299 2,521 44 577 572 1,323 1,840

Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06

Total TOP TPX TLB IPT TP TM (Bt. mn.)

• 27%

9,596 1,573 318 30 29 472 443 1,598 3,670 15,948 2,322 5,666 7,497 16,647 (Bt. mn.) +4%

FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06

Financial Highlight Financial Highlight – – Net Profit from Operation Net Profit from Operation

PX 33% Refinery 43% LB 13%

FY/06

Power 11%

Q4/06

PX 63% LB 27% Power 30%

Q4/06 NP from Operation

• Bt. 1,840 mn.

*Refinery -20% FY/06 NP from Operation

• Bt. 16,647 mn.

*Exclude other activities (Gain & Loss from Fixed Asset sold & Assets Impairment)

38 FY/05 FY/06 YoY Utilization 92% 92% 0% EBITDA 790 724

• 8%

NP from Op. 472 318 -33%

TLB

100%

(Bt. mn.)

100%

TPX

FY/05 FY/06 YoY Production 97% 96%

• 1%

PX-ULG95 ($/t) 371 527 +42% EBITDA 4,376 6,125 +40% NP from Op. 3,670 5,666 +54% FY/05* FY/06 YoY Production 71% 82% +11% 500SN-HSFO ($/t) 331 579 +75% EBITDA 1,767 2,768 +57% NP from Op. 1,598 2,322 +45% FY/05 FY/06 YoY Utilization 92% 91%

• 1%

EBITDA 82 81

• 1%

NP from Op. 84 30 +3%

100%

TM

FY/05 FY/06 YoY Avail. 77% 74%

• 3%

EBITDA 1,638 1,996 +22% NP from Op. 443 1,573+255%

55% 56% 24%

TP IPT

FY/05 FY/06 YoY Utilization 104% 105% +1% GRM ($/bbl) 6.62 4.96

• 25%

EBITDA 20,356 13,334

• 34%

NP from Op. 9,596 7,497

• 22%

TOP Consolidated

Thaioil’s Group

FY/05* FY/06 YoY 29,003 25,014

• 14%

15,948 16,647 +4%

Performance Breakdown by Company Performance Breakdown by Company

*Net Profit form Operation excluded other activities (Gain & Loss from Fixed Asset sold & Assets Impairment)

39

Cash Flow FY/05 & FY/06 Cash Flow FY/05 & FY/06

(8,542) 28,946 20,404 (8,161) Change in assets & liabilities 26,072 Net income & non-cash adj. 17,911 Operating Cash Flow (Bt. mn.)

+

(2,112) (3,799) 24,384 (30,586) (12,113) (10,358) Dividend payment 7,978 Proceed from Loan & Notes (2,292) Interest payment (9,670) Repayment of LT loans (14,342) Financing

+ = +

FY05 / FY/06 9,616 16,697 Free Cash Flow 670 (4,377) (3,707) (8,278) CAPEX (PP&E) (17) Other investment (8,295) CAPEX & Investment 11,252 6,667 Beginning Cash (4,726) 4,584 Net Increase in Cash 6,526 11,251 Ending Cash