Analyses W E B I N A R : F E B R U A R Y 2 8 , 2 0 1 7 Authors: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Plug-in Electric Vehicle Cost-Benefit Analyses W E B I N A R : F E B R U A R Y 2 8 , 2 0 1 7 Authors: Dana Lowell Brian Jones David Seamonds Contact: Dana Lowell 47 Junction Square Dr. Concord, MA 01742 +1 978 369 5533
W E B I N A R : F E B R U A R Y 2 8 , 2 0 1 7
Authors: Dana Lowell Brian Jones David Seamonds Contact: Dana Lowell 47 Junction Square Dr. Concord, MA 01742 +1 978 369 5533 dlowell@mjbradley.com
Welcome and Opening Remarks Brian Jones, Senior Vice President, MJB&A Introduction and Overview Luke Tonachel, Director, Clean Vehicles and Fuels Project, Energy & Transportation Program, NRDC PEV Cost-Benefit Analyses Dana Lowell, Senior Vice President – Technical Director, MJB&A Q&A and Discussion Wrap Up
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MJB&A, founded in 1994, is a strategic consulting firm focused on energy and environmental issues. The firm includes a multi-disciplinary team of experts with backgrounds in economics, law, engineering, and policy. The company works with private companies, public agencies, and non-profit organizations to understand and evaluate environmental regulations and policy, facilitate multi-stakeholder initiatives, shape business strategies, and deploy clean energy technologies.
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This presentation is based on the results of five state-level analyses of plug-in electric vehicle costs and benefits for different states in the Northeast, including Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania. These studies were conducted by MJB&A for the Natural Resources Defense Council, to provide input to state policy discussions about actions required to promote further adoption of electric vehicles. Summary reports for each state can be found here: http://bit.ly/2kJOfx0
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2025 PEV Goal * 2050 GHG Goals CT 150,000
MA 300,000
MD 300,000
NY 850,000
PA None None TOT 1,600,000 * 8-state Zero Emission Vehicle Memorandum of Understanding (ZEV MOU). Other states are CA (1.5 million), OR (130,000), RI (40,000) and VT (30,000)
Modeled PEV penetration rates bracket these short & long term goals For each state to meet its ZEV MOU commitments, PEV penetration would need to be 6% - 7.5% in 2025
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17% - 25% PEV penetration by 2050, and a total of 8.4 million PEVs
these states in 2050 would need to be PEVs - a total of 35.8 million PEVs
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Actual & Projected Battery Costs for EVs [$/kW]
PEVs projected to still be more expensive to buy than gasoline vehicles through 2050, but incremental costs will be more than offset by fuel and maintenance savings
Modeled future PEV purchase costs based on two key parameters
Battery size based on BEV200 and PHEV50 Electric drive train size (kW) based on current PEV models Future battery & drivetrain costs based on DOE EV Everywhere goals and recent Bloomberg projections
vehicle and VMT growth
cars and light trucks PHEV/BEV ratio based on current fleet in each state PEVs assumed to be mostly cars in 2030, with increasing percentage light trucks in later years, especially under 80x50 scenario
Information Administration (EIA)
modeling, and reflect EPA/DOT fuel economy standards (CAFE) through 2025 model year For PEVs added additional energy to cover winter cabin heating
and a “low carbon” scenario in which grid emissions are reduced 80% by 2050
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home and at work
home
soon as arrive at home/work Arrival times based on responses to 2009 Household Travel Survey Arrival times vary slightly by state
arrivals between noon and 11 PM delay charge start until after midnight (40%) 1 AM (40%) or 2 AM (20%)
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annual electricity use is projected to grow by only 5% -7% through 2050 MD electricity use is projected to grow by 32% due to much higher population growth
PEV charging would increase electricity use by 3% -5% under ZEV MOU scenario 16% - 24% under the 80x50 scenario
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these states by: 8-state ZEV MOU scenario: 5.6% (PA) - 9%(NY, MD) 80x50 Scenario: 34% (PA) - 40% (CT, MD)
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battery costs are achieved, on average PEVs will be less expensive to operate than gasoline vehicles by the early 2030s, even without government subsidies
PEV (nom $) in these states will range from: 2030: -$57 (PA) to $146 (MD) 2050: $545 (PA) to $939 (MD)
for PEV owners in 2050 under the 80x50 penetration scenario ranges from $0.8 billion (CT) to $3.0 billion (NY)
Massachusetts Fleet Average Annual Operating Costs (nom $)
GASOLINE VEHICLE
2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 Vehicle Purchase $/yr $4,291 $5,483 $7,039 $4,408 $6,212 $8,105 Gasoline $/yr $1,285 $1,658 $2,126 $1,308 $1,819 $2,389 Maintenance $/yr $255 $319 $394 $257 $329 $409 $/yr $5,831 $7,460 $9,559 $5,972 $8,360 $10,903
PEV
2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 Vehicle Purchase $/yr $4,703 $5,800 $7,157 $4,818 $6,496 $8,432 Electricity $/yr $671 $749 $839 $682 $799 $920 Gasoline $/yr $219 $252 $309 $222 $274 $344 Personal Charger $/yr $81 $101 $123 $81 $101 $123 Maintenance $/yr $135 $176 $219 $136 $179 $224 $/yr $5,809 $7,078 $8,647 $5,940 $7,850 $10,042 Savings per PEV $/yr
$22 $382 $912 $33 $510 $860
TOTAL ANNUAL 8-State ZEV MOU 80x50 8-State ZEV MOU 80x50 TOTAL ANNUAL
charging will produce net revenue for utilities that can be used to support maintenance of existing distribution infrastructure
customers by putting downward pressure on future rate increases
annual utility net revenue by 30% - 100% compared to baseline charging – due to lower peak capacity and infrastructure costs
revenue from PEV charging in 2050 could reduce electric rates by 3% -7% in these five states – savings the average household $104 - $144 per year (nom $)
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Utility revenue and net revenue is based on EIA projections of future regional energy costs, accounting for incremental costs of PEVs not included in EIA reference case. These include the cost
infrastructure to handle the incremental peak charging load
emissions in these states are projected to fall by 28% to 45% even without high PEV penetration, as the fleet turns
Differences due to start year for state GHG reduction goal
produce significantly greater GHG reductions, especially if the grid is further decarbonized
annual GHG reductions (NPV) from greater PEV penetration under the 80x50 scenario range from $350 million (CT) to $1.4 billion (NY)
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Monetized value of GHG reductions calculated using Social Cost of CO2, as estimated by the U.S. government’s Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases.
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cumulative benefits from PEVs could exceed $32 billion in Massachusetts under the 80x50 scenario 51% will accrue to PEV
vehicle costs 24% will accrue to utility customers from lower electric bills 25% will accrue to society from the value of GHG reductions
benefits for other states, but magnitude is proportional to the size of the fleet
NPV based on 3% discount rate
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Annual PEV owner benefits are positive after 2032
percentage of utility revenue spent on generation & transmission
PEV Owner
Maximum benefits, including off-peak charging and low carbon grid scenario
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80 x 50 SCENARIO NPV CUMULATIVE NET BENEFITS [$ billions]
PEV Owner Utility Customer GHG Reduction
TOTAL
PEV Owner Utility Customer GHG Reduction
TOTAL CT $0.04 $0.08 $0.07 $0.19 $9.4 $3.6 $4.4 $17.3 MA $0.03 $0.16 $0.12 $0.31 $16.8 $7.8 $8.0 $32.7 MD $0.13 $0.11 $0.08 $0.32 $21.6 $4.5 $7.6 $33.6 NY $0.06 $0.65 $0.27 $0.98 $34.1 $24.3 $17.5 $75.9 PA
$0.24 $0.17 $0.32 $23.1 $9.6 $12.8 $45.6 TOT $0.17 $1.24 $0.69 $2.12 $105.0 $49.8 $50.3 $205.1
customer benefits
Concord, MA
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