Allocation Plan Capital Projection Transit Service Delivery - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
allocation plan
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Allocation Plan Capital Projection Transit Service Delivery - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 17, 2023 491 likes •981 views

Virginia Department of Rail & Public Transportation Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection Transit Service Delivery Advisory Committee October 26, 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Objective Assumptions Presentation of

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Transit Service Delivery Advisory Committee October 26, 2016

Virginia Department of Rail & Public Transportation

Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

slide-2
SLIDE 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

2

 Objective  Assumptions  Presentation of updated model results

  • Base Case
  • Scenarios

 Conclusions

slide-3
SLIDE 3

OBJECTIVE

3

 Update 10-year projection of transit capital costs (FY18-27)

  • Previous version (FY17-26) based on DRPT FY16 SYIP
  • Update analysis to reflect DRPT FY17 SYIP
  • Calibrate updated data based on:
  • Recent TDPs
  • Telephone interviews with largest 10 agencies
  • WMATA FY17-22 CIP

 Update 10-year projection of transit capital revenues  Perform gap analysis

  • Deficit/additional revenues needed
  • Change in state match rates due to lower revenues
slide-4
SLIDE 4

STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING TIERS

Tier 1

  • Replacement and Expansion Vehicles
  • 68% maximum state match

Tier 2

  • Infrastructure and Facilities
  • 34% maximum state match

Tier 3

  • Other
  • 17% maximum state match

4

slide-5
SLIDE 5

PROJECT CATEGORIES

5

 State of Good Repair

  • Rehabilitation and replacement projects such as purchase of replacement vehicles; amenities

including shelters, fare payment, bike racks, signage; computers, communications and technology; security; and track lease and debt service payments

  • VRE track lease payments

 Expansion Projects

  • Expansion vehicles (bus, vans, and service vehicles)
  • Significant new facilities and upgrades such as construction of second elevators, station

entrances, and parking garages

  • Multi-year projects
  • Virginia Beach Light Rail Transit (LRT) Extension
  • Richmond Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
  • Norfolk Naval Station Transit Extension
slide-6
SLIDE 6

CAPITAL PROJECTION ASSUMPTIONS

6

 WMATA Expenditures

  • FY18-22 based on WMATA FY17-22 CIP
  • Mix of PRIIA-funded projects by tier estimated based on FY18 mix

 All Other Agencies’ Expenditures

  • FY18-21 based on FY17 SYIP, due to drop in expenditures last 2 years of SYIP
  • Projected expenditures FY22-27 based on average annual SYIP costs FY18-21
  • FY22-27 escalated by historical growth in RS Means Construction Cost Index

 Federal Participation

  • FY18-21 based on FY2017 SYIP estimates by major agency/district by tier
  • FY22-27 based on average of FY18-FY21
slide-7
SLIDE 7

BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS

7

 Revenues

  • Revenues based on state projection
  • Elimination of transit bond funding in FY20
  • Elimination of PRIIA funding in FY21

 Expenditures

  • Calculate resulting gap when state match by tier is maintained at 68%/34%/17%

(different from FY17 SYIP which assumes tiers varying each year)

  • In addition, examine cut in state match required to address funding gap
  • Maintain tier 1 percentages to the extent possible
  • Adjust tier 3 and 2 percentages, respectively
slide-8
SLIDE 8

SCENARIO ANALYSIS VARIABLES

8

 PRIIA Funding

  • Assume PRIIA-authorized state/federal WMATA funding maintained beyond FY20

 State Transit Capital Bonds

  • Assume new legislative action to continue bond funding beyond FY19

 Projects Beyond FY17 SYIP

  • Assume additional projects reported by agencies for which constrained funding not

currently identified  Contingency

  • Assume additional expenditures on projects statewide of approximately 5%

 Project Mix

  • Assume state transit capital funds are only applied to SGR projects
slide-9
SLIDE 9

SCENARIOS

9

1

Base Case

  • PRIIA-authorized state/federal WMATA funding expires in FY20
  • State transit capital bonds sunset in FY19

2

PRIIA Funding Maintained

  • PRIIA funding maintained at current levels beyond FY20
  • State transit capital bonds sunset in FY19

3

Additional Revenues

  • PRIIA funding maintained at current levels beyond FY20
  • State transit capital bonds continue at current levels beyond FY19

4

Additional Revenues and Expenditures

  • State transit capital bonds and PRIIA Funding continue beyond FY19
  • Additional project spending as reported by agencies
  • Statewide contingency expenditures of 5%

5

SGR Only

  • Expansion projects not funded by state transit capital funds
slide-10
SLIDE 10

SCENARIOS

10

PRIIA Funding Reauthorized New State Transit Capital Bonds Projects Beyond FY17 SYIP Contingency SGR and committed expansion projects only 1) Base Case

X X X X X

2) PRIIA Funding Maintained

 X X X X

3) Additional Revenues

  X X X

4) Additional Revenues & Expenditures

    X

5) SGR Only

X X X X 

X = NO  = YES

slide-11
SLIDE 11

SCENARIO 1 BASE CASE

Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

1

slide-12
SLIDE 12

$6.5B PROJECTED TRANSIT CAPITAL INVESTMENTS BY VIRGINIA TRANSIT AGENCIES (FY18-27)

12

1

70% SGR 30% Expansion

slide-13
SLIDE 13

$6.5B PROJECTED TRANSIT CAPITAL INVESTMENTS TIER-WISE EXPENDITURES (FY18-27)

13

1

slide-14
SLIDE 14

$2.4B STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING NEEDS BY TIER (FY18-27)

14

Excludes share of transit capital costs funded by federal revenues

1

slide-15
SLIDE 15

$2.4B STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING NEEDS BY AGENCY (FY18-27)

15

1

slide-16
SLIDE 16

$1.3B PROJECTED STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING REVENUES BY TYPE (FY18-27)

16

Excludes federal funds disbursed by the State Other Sources include VDOT TTF

1

slide-17
SLIDE 17

$2.4B STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING NEEDS & $1.3B PROJECTED REVENUES (FY18-27)

17

State Capital Contribution

Excludes share of transit capital costs funded by federal revenues and by State Other Sources

1

slide-18
SLIDE 18

$1.1B STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING DEFICIT (FY18-27) – AVERAGE ANNUAL DEFICIT $107M

18

1

Current state match rates by Tier of 68/34/17% maintained

$Millions

slide-19
SLIDE 19

PROJECTED STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL MATCH BY TIER TO ADDRESS DEFICIT (FY18-27)

19

1

Deficit eliminated by changing state match rates by Tier

slide-20
SLIDE 20

SCENARIO 2: PRIIA FUNDING MAINTAINED

Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

2

slide-21
SLIDE 21

$6.5B PROJECTED TRANSIT CAPITAL INVESTMENTS BY VIRGINIA TRANSIT AGENCIES (FY18-27)

21

2

70% SGR 30% Expansion

slide-22
SLIDE 22

$1.7B PROJECTED STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING REVENUES BY TYPE (FY18-27)

22

2

Excludes federal funds disbursed by the State Other Sources include VDOT TTF

PRIIA Continues

slide-23
SLIDE 23

$2.4B STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING NEEDS & $1.7B PROJECTED REVENUES (FY18-27)

23 State Capital Contribution

2

Excludes share of transit capital costs funded by federal revenues and by State Other Sources

slide-24
SLIDE 24

24

$715M STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING DEFICIT (FY18-27) – AVERAGE ANNUAL DEFICIT $72M

2

Current state match rates by Tier of 68/34/17% maintained

$Millions

slide-25
SLIDE 25

PROJECTED STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL MATCH BY TIER TO ADDRESS DEFICIT (FY18-27)

25

2

Deficit eliminated by changing state match rates by Tier

slide-26
SLIDE 26

SCENARIO 3: ADDITIONAL REVENUES

Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

3

slide-27
SLIDE 27

$6.5B PROJECTED TRANSIT CAPITAL INVESTMENTS BY VIRGINIA TRANSIT AGENCIES (FY18-27)

27

3

70% SGR 30% Expansion

slide-28
SLIDE 28

$2.2B PROJECTED STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING REVENUES BY TYPE (FY18-27)

28

3

Excludes federal funds disbursed by the State Other Sources include VDOT TTF

PRIIA Continues Bonds Renewed

slide-29
SLIDE 29

$2.4B STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING NEEDS & $2.2B PROJECTED REVENUES (FY18-27)

29 State Capital Contribution

3

Excludes share of transit capital costs funded by federal revenues and by State Other Sources

slide-30
SLIDE 30

30

$203M STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING DEFICIT (FY18-27) – AVERAGE ANNUAL DEFICIT $20M

3

Current state match rates by Tier of 68/34/17% maintained

$Millions

slide-31
SLIDE 31

31

PROJECTED STATE MATCH BY TIER TO ADDRESS DEFICIT (FY18-27): HIGHER TIER 2 MATCH THAN BASE

3

Deficit eliminated by changing state match rates by Tier

slide-32
SLIDE 32

SCENARIO 4: ADDITIONAL REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES

Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

4

slide-33
SLIDE 33

$9.1B PROJECTED TRANSIT CAPITAL INVESTMENTS BY VIRGINIA TRANSIT AGENCIES (FY18-27)

33

4

56% SGR 44% Expansion

slide-34
SLIDE 34

$2.2B PROJECTED STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING REVENUES BY TYPE (FY18-27)

34

4

Excludes federal funds disbursed by the State Other Sources include VDOT TTF

PRIIA Continues Bonds Renewed

slide-35
SLIDE 35

$3.5B STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING NEEDS & $2.2B PROJECTED REVENUES (FY18-27)

35 State Capital Contribution

4

Additional State Capital Contribution

Excludes share of transit capital costs funded by federal revenues and by State Other Sources

slide-36
SLIDE 36

36

$1.3B STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING DEFICIT (FY18-27) – AVERAGE ANNUAL DEFICIT $129M

4

Current state match rates by Tier of 68/34/17% maintained

$Millions

slide-37
SLIDE 37

37

PROJECTED STATE MATCH BY TIER TO ADDRESS DEFICIT (FY18-27): NO TIER 3, LESS TIER 2 FUNDING

4

Deficit eliminated by changing state match rates by Tier

slide-38
SLIDE 38

SCENARIO 5: SGR ONLY

Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

5

slide-39
SLIDE 39

$6.5B PROJECTED TRANSIT CAPITAL INVESTMENTS BY VIRGINIA TRANSIT AGENCIES (FY18-27)

39

5

70% SGR 30% Expansion

(Not Funded by State Transit Capital Funding)

slide-40
SLIDE 40

$1.3B PROJECTED STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING REVENUES BY TYPE (FY18-27)

40

Excludes federal funds disbursed by the State Other sources include VDOT TTF

5

slide-41
SLIDE 41

$1.8B STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING NEEDS & $1.3B PROJECTED REVENUES (FY18-27)

41 State Capital Contribution

5

Excludes share of transit capital costs funded by federal revenues and by State Other Sources

slide-42
SLIDE 42

42

$475M STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING DEFICIT (FY18-27) – AVERAGE ANNUAL DEFICIT $47.5M

5

Current state match rates by Tier of 68/34/17% maintained

$Millions

slide-43
SLIDE 43

43

PROJECTED STATE MATCH BY TIER TO ADDRESS DEFICIT (FY18-27): LOWER STATE MATCH OVER TIME

5

Deficit eliminated by changing state match rates by Tier

slide-44
SLIDE 44

CONCLUSIONS

Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

slide-45
SLIDE 45

STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING AVERAGE ANNUAL PROJECTED DEFICIT BY SCENARIO

45

$Millions

slide-46
SLIDE 46

KEY FINDINGS

46

 Base Case scenario is a conservative estimate of transit capital spending, does not fund significant expansion

  • Average annual deficit is $107 million FY18-27

 Commonwealth will not be able to maintain existing state transit capital program participation rates by tier beginning in FY18

  • Lower state participation will require greater local funding or cuts in capital spending

 Insufficient committed funding to cover cost of SGR, even without funding expansion projects, beyond FY20  To provide stability to transit funding statewide, WMATA PRIIA funding must be reauthorized at existing state and federal levels beyond FY20  Even with WMATA PRIIA funding, maintaining the state match for local agencies’ SGR projects would be challenging beyond FY22

slide-47
SLIDE 47

NEXT STEPS

47

 Investigate revenue options  Model impact of prioritization options on transit funds allocation

slide-48
SLIDE 48

CONTACTS

48

Consultant Team Nathan Macek

Director of Project Development & Finance WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff 202-365-2927 (direct/mobile) 202-370-2912 (office) maceknm@pbworld.com

Miriam Zaki

Associate Consultant WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff 202-569-2874 (direct/mobile) 202-661-5315 (office) zakimm@pbworld.com

Simon Mosbah

Consultant WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff 202-370-2934 (office) mosbahsm@pbworld.com