ALBERTAS SOLAR PV VALUE CHAIN OPPORTUNITY 26 November 2018, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ALBERTAS SOLAR PV VALUE CHAIN OPPORTUNITY 26 November 2018, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ALBERTAS SOLAR PV VALUE CHAIN OPPORTUNITY 26 November 2018, Calgary, Alberta 1 2018-11-29 Disclaimer 2 While this document is believed to contain correct information, Solas Energy Consulting Inc. (SOLAS) does not make any

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2018-11-29

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ALBERTA’S SOLAR PV VALUE CHAIN OPPORTUNITY

26 November 2018, Calgary, Alberta

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Disclaimer

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¨ While this document is believed to contain correct information, Solas

Energy Consulting Inc. (“SOLAS”) does not make any warranty, either expressed or implied, nor assumes any legal liability or responsibility for accuracy, completeness, methodology, usefulness, reliability, or current status of any material contained in this document (“Report”), nor shall SOLAS assume any liability with respect to any matter or information referred to or contained in the Report, nor shall any person relying on the Report (“Recipient”) or any party to whom the Recipient provides the Report or information have any claim against SOLAS arising out of such Report. The interpretation of this or any other data or report related to this project is solely the responsibility of the client.

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Authors

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¨ Jackie Gallagher, Solas ¨ Caitlin Lopez, P.Eng (Go Productivity) ¨ Jason Mah, E.I.T., Solas ¨ Adrienne McGarrigle, B.A., Solas ¨ Paula McGarrigle P.Eng. MBA, Solas ¨ Leonard Olien, M.Sc., Solas

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Acknowledgements

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SPONSORED BY: THANKS TO:

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Purpose

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1.

Identify the solar PV value chain opportunity for Alberta

2.

Determine Alberta’s ability to capture the solar PV value chain.

3.

Identify the jobs associated with potential deployment scenarios to 2030

4.

Identify the existing training opportunities

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What is a Value Chain?

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¨

A value chain is a set of activities completed within an industry to deliver a valuable product or service for the market.

¨

This study focused on Solar Photovoltaics only

¤ Rooftop solar PV and

ground-mount solar PV

n Does not include

n

Building Integrated Solar PV

n

Energy Storage

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Agenda

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Introduction Value Chain Assessment Economic Impact Job Opportunities Training Assessment Priorities Next Steps

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Introduction

1.0

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Global Solar Industry

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History

Solar PV cost is plummeting Between 2009 and 2017, the levelized cost of energy for utility-scale solar PV fell by 86 percent

1

Solar PV historic growth has been meteoric

Current

2016 global solar PV capacity is approximately 300 GW (Gigawatts)

Forecast

Solar PV cost continues to decrease The levelized cost of solar energy is expected to continue to decrease by 25 percent between 2017 and 2022. Solar PV deployment continues to grow Deployment is expected to grow globally at about 20 percent per year by 2022.

1 Lazard, “Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis — Version 11.0” (report, 2017), 10.

GLOBAL

43%

ANNUAL GROWTH

SOLAR PV MARKET 1990-2016

GLOBAL

20%

ANNUAL GROWTH

SOLAR PV MARKET 2017-2022

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Alberta and Solar PV

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30%

ENERGY FROM

RENEWABLES

BY 2030 ALBERTA’s SOLAR

RESOURCE

SIMILAR TO

MIAMI, FLORIDA RIO DE JANEIRO,

BRAZIL

CLIMATE LEADERSHIP PLAN SOLAR RESOURCE

DEPLOYED

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Alberta’s Current Solar PV Market

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43

MW

DEPLOYED

TOTAL

ALBERTA

AESO CONNECTION QUEUE

Solar PV

86 PROJECTS

4,547 MW

305 SOLAR

COMPANIES 83% support ROOFTOP

DEPLOYMENT TODAY’s BUSINESSES TRAINING

16

TRAINING PROVIDERS

AUGUST 2018

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2018-11-29 12

BROOKS SOLAR

15 MWAC 2017 FIRST DISTRIBUTION CONNECTED GROUND-MOUNT ELEMENTAL ENERGY

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Scope of the Analysis

¨ Timeline 2030 ¨ Rooftop solar PV ¨ Ground-mount solar PV ¨ Alberta deployment

  • nly.

¨ Building integrated solar

PV

¨ Energy Storage ¨ Research and

development

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What’s in? What’s Out?

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Methodology

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Deployment Scenario to 2030

  • How many MW
  • f solar PV by

2030? What is the split

  • f ground-mount

/rooftop solar PV?

Value Chain Model

  • What are the life

stages and components of the value chain?

Cost Estimation

  • How much value

is in each part of the value chain?

Results

  • What is the total

value?

  • Where is most of

the value?

  • Where are the

jobs?

  • How ready are

we to capture part of the value chain?

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Rooftop and Ground-Mount Solar PV Assumptions

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¨ Assumption for SESA study ¤ Microgeneration = Rooftop assumption ¤ Non-Microgeneration = Ground-mount Applications

Market Segments

Microgeneration Regulation

Residential Commercial/ Industrial Farm

Community - Distribution Connected Utility Scale

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Alberta’s Deployment Scenario to 2030

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MW DC UTILITY 2,081 COMMUNITY 389 FARM/ COMMERCIAL 224 RESIDENTIAL 566

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3

MW DC Deployed

Utility - Ground Mount (MW) Community Generation (Distribution Connected - Ground Mount) (MW) Farm - Ground Mount (MW) Commercial - Rooftop (MW) Residential - Rooftop (MW)

Utility Community Farm/Commercial Residential

  • P. McGarrigle, L. Olien, C. Chiu, Alberta Solar Market
Outlook — A view to 2030, Version 5.0, November 25, 2017.

Deployment and Growth Rates based on study U.S. Solar Market Insight Full Report 2016 Year in Review 3

3 U.S. Solar Market Insight Full Report 2016 Year in Review, GTM Research and Solar Energy Industries Association.

3,261 DEPLOYED

BY 2030

SOLAR PV

MWDC

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Market Deployment by 2030

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Utility Applications 1,727 MWAC (2081 MWDC) Community/Distribution connected 322 MWAC (389 MWDC) Commercial/Farm 7% of all commercial/industrial buildings, 178 MWAC , (214 MWDC); 1% of all farms, 9MWAC (10 MWDC) Residential

  • 470 MWAC (566 MWDC), 12% of all residences
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VALUE CHAIN ASSESSMENT

Alberta’s Solar PV Value Chain

1.1

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Six Life Stages of Solar PV

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Development Design Manufacturing Install Operations & Maintenance Decommission

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Alberta Solar PV Value Share – Rooftop and Ground-mount

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ECONOMIC IMPACT

Market Value for Each Value Chain Component

2.1

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Alberta’s 2030 Solar PV Value

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$4.1

Solar PV Billion Dollars

BY 2030

VALUE CHAIN MARKET VALUE SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT

Value

3,261 DEPLOYED

BY 2030

SOLAR PV

MWDC

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Alberta Solar PV Market Value by Life Stage

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$4.1B

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Breakdown of the $4.1 Billion Market Value

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Cumulative Market Value by 2030

Rooftop (791 MWDC) Ground-mount (2,470 MWDC) Total (3,261 MWDC) Capital expenditures ($M) $1,099 $2,761 $3,860 Operation & maintenance expenditures ($M) $63 $220 $283 Total solar PV market ($M) $1,162 $2,981 $4,143 Number of installations by 2030 96,576 99 96,675 Majority of value is in ground-mount applications capital expenditures. Rooftop market value is 1/3 that of Ground-mount solar PV.

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Red Deer 4,433 Lethbridge 3,642 Calgary 38,428 Edmonton 34,238

Potential Rooftop Installations by 2030

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION

Potential Ground-mount Installations by 2030

Only about 10% difference in resource across Alberta.

Within 10 km of existing transmission, distribution systems and substations

Most rooftop applications will be in the major cities Ground-mount will be along utility corridors

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ECONOMIC IMPACT

Alberta’s Current Solar Value Chain and Capacity to Capture Potential Market Value

2.2

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Supply Chain Model - Legend

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Qualitative assessment was completed based

  • n the existing

directories and knowledge of the industry.

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ECONOMIC IMPACT

The Value of Increased Market Share of Solar PV with Alberta’s Existing Solar PV Capabilities

2.3

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THREE ASPECTS OF SOLAR PV MARKET

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1

CURRENT CAPACITY ALBERTA’s

2

GROWTH OPPORTUNITY ALBERTA’s VALUE

3

VALUE EXTERNAL

the value we can capture with our current capabilities Opportunity to grow capacity and resources to access more

  • f the solar PV

value chain Goods and services that are unlikely to be sourced in Alberta

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Alberta’s Current Capacity to Access the Solar PV Market Value is 15% ($630M) of Total Market Value

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ROOFTOP & GROUND-MOUNT (2019-2030) CURRENT CAPACITY $630M

1

CURRENT CAPACITY ALBERTA’s

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ECONOMIC IMPACT

Alberta’s Growth Opportunity Value

2.4

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Alberta Solar PV Market Value by Opportunity

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1

CURRENT CAPACITY ALBERTA’s

2 GROWTH

OPPORTUNITY ALBERTA’s VALUE

3 VALUE

EXTERNAL

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Alberta’s Growth Opportunity Value

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  • Growth Opportunity: $537 million.
  • Legal, Finance and Commercial, Technical Advisers, Site

and System Design segments: Over $100 million each

Development and Design

  • Growth Opportunity: $1.3 billion.
  • Balance-of-system segment: $0.77 billion
  • Mounting system segment: $0.52 billion.

Manufacturing

  • Growth Opportunity: $377 million
  • Electrical works segment: $218 million.

Installation

2 GROWTH

OPPORTUNITY ALBERTA’s VALUE

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Detailed Market Value Breakdown

$4.1B

2 GROWTH

OPPORTUNITY ALBERTA’s VALUE

1 CURRENT

CAPACITY ALBERTA’s

3 VALUE

EXTERNAL

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Manufacturing Opportunities

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¨ Significant value associated with manufacturing

balance of system components

¨ Higher value components include: ¤ inverters, metering systems, transformers, combiners,

  • ptimizers, collector lines.

¨ Additional study is required in this area.

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Research and Development

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Materials science

National Institute of Nanotechnology Centre for Advanced Solar Materials

Energy Storage

Electricity Storage - Calgary Advanced Energy Storage and Conversion Research Group (CAESR)

  • Opportunity to focus on

emerging innovative and wider solar PV value chain

  • pportunities.
  • Ensure solar PV and energy

storage is part of engineering curriculum

  • ptions in Alberta.
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Export Opportunities are Rich.

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¨ Export Opportunities could be

significant.

¨ Global growth rate of 20

percent per year.

¨ Not assessed as part of the

this report.

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Potential Solar PV Jobs

JOB OPPORTUNITIES

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3.1

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Over 60 different types of jobs associated with the Solar PV industry. Jobs are diverse and leverage existing skills in Alberta.

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Solar PV Specific Jobs: A Sample

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Manufacturing System Design Project Development Installation and Operations

  • Computer Numerical

Control Operator

  • Advanced

Manufacturing Technician

  • Instrumentation and

Electronics Technician

  • Process Control

Technician

  • Instrumentation and

Electronics Technician

  • Quality Assurance

Specialist

  • Electrical Engineer
  • IT Specialist
  • Residential PV System

Designer

  • Engineering Technician
  • Utility Interconnection

Engineer

  • Civil Structural Engineer
  • Power Systems Engineer
  • Solar Energy Systems

Designer

  • Solar Site Assessor
  • Solar Marketing

Specialist

  • Solar Sales

Representative

  • Code official with Solar

Expertise

  • Electrical Inspector with

Solar Expertise

  • Building Inspector with

Solar Expertise

  • Solar Utility

Procurement Specialist

  • Solar Assembler/Basic

Installer

  • Roofer with Solar

Expertise

  • Solar crew chief
  • Solar PV Installer
  • Solar Service Technician

(residential)

  • Solar PV Technician

(commercial/utility)

  • Electrician with Solar

Expertise

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45 Rooftop Groundmount Total Operations 159.0 786.0 945.0 Induced 546.0 1317.0 1863.0 Other direct 573 1250 1823 Manufacturing 387.0 916.0 1303.0 Construction and Installation 1067.0 2755.0 3822.0

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

Jobs in 2030 (FTE) 2,732 7,024 9,756

Construction and Installation employment is the largest sector.

Almost 9,800 Solar jobs required by 2030

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A minimum of 58% of jobs (5,622) must be locally sourced.

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Minimum local FTE jobs required, 5,622, 58% Additional FTE jobs required, 4,134, 42% 9,756 jobs

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TRAINING ASSESSMENT

4.1

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Training Opportunities

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¨ Specific courses are available for

rooftop solar PV:

¤ Designing solar PV rooftop ¤ Installing solar PV modules ¤ Commissioning residential rooftop

installations

¨ Several institutions offer classes or

  • ptions that contain renewable energy
  • r sustainability content.
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Nine Rooftop Solar Training Providers (7 Alberta based)

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Name Location Duration Certification Everblue Online and USA Online and 2 days in-person NABCEP Grid Works Energy Edmonton 5-day course CSA Light up the World Edmonton 40 hours training N/A NAIT Edmonton 2-year program N/A Solar Energy International Online and Colorado, USA 5-day course NABCEP Solar Installers Canada Calgary 35 hours CSA SAIT Calgary 40-hour course for certified journeyman electricians N/A Solar Energy Society of Alberta Edmonton Various courses N/A Northern Lakes College Slave Lake 5-day course CSA

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Sustainability Training & RE Options

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Institution Course MacEwan University Business 201 — Introduction to Sustainable Business Lakeland College Renewable Energy and Conservation (Certificate/Diploma) Lethbridge College Solar 101 for homeowners Medicine Hat College Introduction to Solar Mount Royal Strategic Sustainability and the Energy Industry Red Deer College Alternative Energy Lab University of Alberta Faculty of Engineering – Energy and Environment Graduate courses – MEC E 643 Renewable energy Engineering & Sustainability University of Calgary Continuing Education – BMC 252 – Renewable Energy Technologies Faculty of Engineering – ENG 355 Introduction to Energy and the Environment Faculty of Engineering – ENG 507 Introduction to Sustainable Development Faculty of Engineering – ENG 575 Alternative Energy Systems Faculty of Business – Energy Management 301 – Electricity Management Faculty of Business – FNCE 559 Renewable Power Generation Finance Graduate degree – Masters in Sustainable Energy Development

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K-12 Training Programs

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www.teachpeel.ca

  • Lesson Plans
  • Teacher Support
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Training opportunities: Conclusions

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¨ Ensure workers with transferrable skills are

aware of opportunities and training

¨ No training currently available for utility-

scale renewables

¤ Close gap with on-the-job training and solar

PV focussed courses.

¨ Continue support of engineering education

and research in energy storage and solar PV materials science

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PRIORITIES

5.1

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Priority Areas for Alberta

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1

  • Increasing capacity in conventional value chain

contributions 2

  • Broadening Alberta's manufacturing base

3

  • Focus on emerging technology
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Priority Area 1: Increase capacity

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Alberta requires more talent to meet future demand for solar PV. Alberta can also use this expertise to service the global solar PV market.

¨ Life stages where additional talent is required:

development, design, installation and maintenance

¨ Programs that assist in transferring skills to solar PV

industry

¨

Design & development services:

¤ Technical advisory ¤ System and site design ¤ Legal ¤ Financial Services

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Priority Area 2: Broadening Alberta’s Manufacturing Base

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Identify areas to broaden Alberta’s manufacturing base.

¨ Higher value products offer a strong match

with Alberta’s skill sets.

¨ Potentially attractive market for Alberta’s

manufacturing base, given the expected size of the global solar PV market

¨ Examples: Racking, Inverters, Metering systems,

Transformers, Combiners, Optimizers, Conduit

¨ Further study is required.

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Priority Area 3: Focus on emerging technology

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Continuing materials research through Alberta institutions Access global

  • pportunities in

solar PV sector, including:

  • Nanotechnology
  • Energy Storage

Ensure solar PV and energy storage is part of engineering curricula

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Next Steps

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Foster Solar PV Forums

  • Seminars, Networking Sessions,

Conferences

Stable and predictable Solar PV Market

  • Advance knowledge and

experience to support export

  • pportunities

Identify manufacturing diversification opportunities

  • Support businesses that retrain

Albertans who have transferable skills.

Ensure quality information is available.

  • Training to leverage

experienced personnel with transferable skills.

  • Engineering curricula includes

energy storage and solar PV

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Conclusions

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¨ Worldwide, global solar PV market is one of the fastest growing

technologies for power generation.

¨ Alberta has an opportunity to be part of this global industry. ¨ Alberta solar PV market value could be over $4 billion by 2030,

with over $3billion accessible to Alberta based businesses.

¨ Market opportunity can be increased by accessing export

  • pportunities.

¨ Taking key steps now will ensure that Alberta has a place on the

global stage for this industry sector that complements its current energy base.

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Q&A – Any questions?

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Contact Information

Paula McGarrigle – Solas Energy Consulting Inc. – Calgary - Alberta PMcGarrigle@solasenergyconsulting.com www.solasenergyconsulting.com

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End of Presentation