Alaskas Economic Climate November 16th, 2016 Alaska Department of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alaska’s Economic Climate

November 16th, 2016 Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research Section, Neal Fried, Economist

Alaska—Past Long Term Trends No Longer A Road Map To The Future (basically 27 years of growth)

160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 260,000 280,000 300,000 320,000 340,000

Number of Jobs Oil Revenue Party Alaska’s “Great Recession” 1988-2008, 21 years of growth ends Dropping in 2016 1990 “full recovery” – record annual count begins and goes on for 19 years Lost a few jobs in in 2009

*preliminary

1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

• 1.4%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Employment Growth Gone In 2016 In AK

*based on first 6 months

This Is How Things Are Shaping Up In AK In 2016

• 4,600

800 400 200 (100)

• 2,400
• 1,500
• 1,400
• 1,200

Total Health Care Federal Gov. Local Gov. Oil and Gas PBS

Number of Jobs Gained and Lost in 2016, first 6 months

ConstrucMon Retail State gov.

Does this look like a recession?

$40.3 $44.9 $49.3 $55.4 $50.5 $54.2 $59.3 $61.6 $59.9 $58.1 $52.8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source:BEA

Alaska's GDP Numbers Interesting

Declined last 3 quarters--3rd, 4th of 2015 and another 1 percent during first quarter 2016 $ billions

$24.9 $26.4 $28.4 $30.9 $30.9 $32.5 $34.9 $36.4 $36.9 $39.0 $41.3 $41.6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Source: BEA *based on 2 quarters

Alaska's Personal Income Numbers Still Looking Good-- First 2 Quarters of 2016 Still Slightly Positive

$ billions

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Alaska Foreclosures Statewide, 1st Qrt 1980 - 2nd Qrt 2016

Annual Vacancy Rates 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Municipality of Anchorage 4.3% 6.2% 5.2% 6.9% 4.7% 1.8% 2.6% 3.2% 3.8% Fairbanks North Star Borough 8.3% 5.8% 9.9% 12.0% 10.6% 5.0% 8.3% 15.6% 11.2% Juneau Borough 5.0% 3.8% 4.2% 4.9% 5.5% 4.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% Kenai Peninsula Borough 12.3% 5.1% 13.0% 9.4% 8.0% 8.6% 5.5% 6.7% 8.8% Ketchikan Gateway Borough 13.4% 17.8% 7.5% 8.4% 7.1% 12.0% 8.2% 10.4% 9.3% Kodiak Island Borough 7.5% 7.4% 8.2% 5.5% 4.0% 1.3% 2.3% 5.7% 8.0% Matanuska-Susitna Borough 6.2% 3.3% 5.0% 9.3% 5.6% 5.3% 3.5% 5.3% 3.6% Sitka Borough 8.1% 2.9% 4.4% 6.2% 11.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.2% 8.3% Valdez-Cordova CA 4.8% 8.3% 26.2% 8.6% 7.6% 6.4% 3.1% 3.5% 5.9% Wrangell Borough-Petersburg CA 17.5% 22.1% 8.2% 12.7% 8.8% 4.4% 4.4% 5.6% 9.7% Surveywide 6.6% 6.8% 7.2% 8.2% 6.7% 3.9% 4.4% 6.2% 5.8%

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis SecYon and the Alaska Housing Finance CorporaYon; Annual ResidenYal Rental Survey

4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unemployment Rates, Alaska and U.S. January 2005 to September 2016 U.S. Alaska 6.9%

5.0%

17,065 17,558 17,037 16,390 15,473 14,869 14,800 15,300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Federal Employment Is Growing Again In AK

*based on first 9 months of 2016.

22,675 23,141 21,067 24,449 23,195 20,914 22,438 23,004 21,989 20,838

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Uniformed military in Alaska

Military Numbers Have Trended Down

1,650,000 1,700,000 1,750,000 1,800,000 1,850,000 1,900,000 1,950,000 2,000,000

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Visitors Source: Mcdowell Group

Alaska's Visitor Industry Fully Recovered

16.3 15.8 17.0 17.5 18.5 17.8 18.4 16.6 17.4 18.4 18.3 17.9 18.3 18.2 18.2

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Millions of gallons of beer, wine and liquor consumption in AK

Source: AK Department of Revenue

Alcohol Consumption In Alaska--Any Pattern?

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

*Based on first 6 months-qcew, 113,321,1153

Alaska's Timber Industy Employment--Not Much Change

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

*Based on first 6 months-qcew,

Little Change For Mining Employment In Alaska

Gold Looking Pre[y Shiny Again

An Economic Comeback Kid --Toying with Gold Rush Peak

Gold production in thousands of troy ounces, 1900 to 2015 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Source: Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys

400 100

• 100 -200 -200
• 700
• 1,300
• 1,700 -1,700
• 2,000 -2,100
• 2,700 -2,600
• 3,200 -3,300
• 3,500 -3,700

May June Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept

*Total oil industry employment was 10,300, September 2016

2015 2016

Oil Industry Losses Began Last Year

• 9.0%
• 21.0%
• 15.0%
• 9.0%
• 16.0%

1985-1987 1991-1997 1998-1999 2001-2003 2015-2016*

Previous Oil And Gas Employment Losses In AK

• 800
• 2,200
• 1,400
• 800

2,400

*first 6 months of 2016 compared to same period of 2015

Alaska’s High Earners Under Thirty

Fishing Employment In AK Has Remained Largely PosiMve

• 500
• 700
• 600
• 900
• 1,000
• 1,200
• 1,300
• 1,200
• 1,300 -1,300 -1,300
• 1,200
• 1,100
• 1,000
• 1,400
• 1,500 -1,500

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept

*Total State Government Employment was 24,400 September 2016

2015 2016

State Government Employment

Alaska’s Biggest Current Challenge- Oil Revenues

Ranking State Median Household Income-2015 1 Maryland $75,847 2 Hawaii $73,486 3 Alaska $73,355 4 New Jersey $72,222 5 Connecticut $71,346 U.S. $55,775

Part of the Exclusive Club

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS,

• Alaska Leads U.S. States in Well-Being for First Time

by Dan Wi\ers Story Highlights Hawaii and South Dakota round out top three well- being states West Virginia ranks last for the sixth straight year Hawaii and Colorado only states in top 10 every year since '08

11,010 16,037 9,112 8,498 4,983 737 270 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AK's Population Grew Lots During The Great Recession But Now Slowing

(2015 population was 737,625)

Annual gains

3,009 8,664 1,131 1,251

• 2,346
• 6,740
• 6,774

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AK's Migration Story

2015 = 46,323 moved out, 39,549 moved, in for net loss of -6,774

• 20,000
• 15,000
• 10,000
• 5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

Total Employment Change

Same month, compared to the previous year

September, 1986

• 18,500 (-7.5 %)

February, 1986

• 900 (-0.4 %)

25 months 13 months 56 months 46 months 26 months 43 months 18 months 18 months 23 months Total Employment Mining ConstrucMon TransportaMon, CommunicaMon and UMliMes Trade Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Services and Miscellaneous State Government Local Government

Months Of Over-the-year Job Losses For Selected Industries During Alaska’s 1980’s “Great Recession”

Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88

But Laurence C. Smith warms right to

it in “The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future” (Plume, 2010). He’s a professor of earth, planetary, and space sciences at UCLA, and used model projections and data to form his main thesis: Countries north of the equator will grow ever more powerful, while countries to the south will vie for

• survival. Indeed, boomtowns will

pop up in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Russia and

• Scandinavia. As the permafrost melts,

we’ll build roads, bringing construction jobs and a real estate rush. Forecasting the future

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

We Remain Solidly Akers When It Comes To Our Pickups

50,000 70,000 90,000 110,000 130,000 150,000 170,000 190,000 210,000 230,000

Number of registered pickups

49,530 snow machines, peaked at 55,249 in 2008

Questions?