Alaska Analyst & Investor Update
J U L Y 1 6 , 2 0 1 8
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Alaska Analyst & Investor Update J U L Y 1 6 , 2 0 1 8 Cautionary Statement The following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business
J U L Y 1 6 , 2 0 1 8
Cautionary Statement
The following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations, operating results or the industries or markets in which we operate or participate in general. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may prove to be incorrect and are difficult to predict such as operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful exploratory activities; difficulties in developing new products and manufacturing processes; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities; international monetary conditions and exchange rate fluctuations; our ability to complete the sale of our announced dispositions on the timeline currently anticipated, if at all; the possibility that regulatory approvals for our announced dispositions will not be received on a timely basis, if at all, or that such approvals may require modification to the terms of our announced dispositions or our remaining business; business disruptions during or following our announced dispositions, including the diversion of management time and attention; our ability to liquidate the common stock issued to us by Cenovus Energy at prices we deem acceptable, or at all; the ability to deploy net proceeds from our announced dispositions in the manner and timeframe we currently anticipate, if at all; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, and changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business; the stability and competitiveness of our fiscal framework; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are only as of the date of this presentation
Use of non-GAAP financial information – This presentation may include non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of company
the nearest corresponding GAAP measure either within the presentation or on our website at www.conocophillips.com/nongaap. Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible
urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website.
Strategy Hitting on All Cylinders
Value Proposition Principles Disciplined Priorities
Invest capital to sustain production and pay existing dividend 1st
PRIORITY
2nd
PRIORITY
RETURNS Strong Balance Sheet Diverse, Low CoS Portfolio Capital Flexibility Low Sustaining Price
Financial Strength Growing Distributions Disciplined Per- Share CFO Expansion
1By year-end 2018.
Our Unique Characteristics
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Clear, measurable plan to deliver superior returns to shareholders
Annual dividend growth 3rd
PRIORITY
Reduce debt to $15B1; target ‘A’ credit rating 4th
PRIORITY
20-30% of CFO total shareholder payout annually 5th
PRIORITY
Disciplined investment for CFO expansion
ConocoPhillips’ Peer-Leading Position in Alaska
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50 100 150 200 250 300 MBOED 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 MMBOE 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Thousand Net Acres
Largest Producer1 Most Reserves2 Largest Acreage Holder3
Peers include: BP, Caelus, ENI, Hilcorp and XOM.
1Source: Wood Mackenzie, 2018 FY estimate, adjusted to reflect impact of 2018 ConocoPhillips acquisitions. 2Source: Wood Mackenzie, adjusted to approximate oil reserves as of 01/01/18 and reflect impact of 2018 ConocoPhillips acquisitions. 3Source: Reports from Bureau of Land Management & Alaska Department of Natural Resources dated 05/17/18 and 06/04/18, respectively. Only includes acreage position for federal and state lands. Incorporates
ConocoPhillips internal data to reflect impact of Kuparuk acquisition.
2013 Outlook for Asset
2013 Alaska Outlook: Facing Headwinds
7
ConocoPhillips’ Alaska Outlook
2013
2013 Outlook 100 200 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Production (MBOED)
Current Outlook: Strong Future Spurred by Tax Changes & CoS Focus
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100 200 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
1Assumes a stable and competitive fiscal framework, excludes 2018 acquisitions, assumes no change to current working interest and excludes Alaska North Slope gas sales.
Current Outlook 2013 Outlook
target new and bypassed resources
fields and infrastructure
and shift to liquids has made Alaska competitive within the portfolio
Drivers of Transformation ConocoPhillips’ Alaska Outlook1 2013 vs. Current (excluding 2018 acquisitions)
100 200 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
ConocoPhillips’ Alaska Outlook1 2013 vs. Current (including 2018 acquisitions)
1Assumes a stable and competitive fiscal framework, includes impact of 2018 acquisitions at working interests of: Western North Slope = 100% / Kuparuk = ~95%, and excludes Alaska North Slope gas sales.
Production (MBOED)
supported by recent strategic transactions
STRENGTHENED OUTLOOK
Our Alaska Plan is Good for All Stakeholders
9 ► Drives peer-leading low
sustaining price
► ConocoPhillips provided
35% of State of Alaska’s petroleum revenue ‛13-‛17
► Realized price similar to
Brent
► Generates profitable growth
from diversified investments
► Provides low cost of supply
investment opportunities
► Delivers competitive cash
and earnings margins
► Integrated value chain
provides access to multiple markets
► Offers significant
exploration running room
► >20,0001 jobs created by
► Impactful community
investment & volunteerism
► Priority on environmental,
social and governance stewardship
1Source: The Role of the Oil and Gas Industry in Alaska’s Economy; The McDowell Group; May 2017.
► Leverages ownership in
existing infrastructure
Aligns with ConocoPhillips’ Strategy Supports Alaska’s Economy Creates Value for Shareholders
Today’s Agenda
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Our Future in Alaska Our Legacy in Alaska
Al Hirshberg
Matt Fox
1Gross discovered resource. 2Discovered resources are known accumulations of quantities of oil and gas estimated to exist in naturally occurring accumulations.
Conventional Assets Play Important & Unique Role in Our Portfolio
<$50/BBL Cost of Supply2Resource
(as of Nov. 2017)
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1Excludes exploration resources. 2Cost of supply is the WTI equivalent price that generates a 10 percent after-tax return on a point-forward and fully burdened basis. Fully burdened includes capital infrastructure, foreign exchange, price-related inflation
and G&A. Resource based on Petroleum Resources Management System, developed by industry to classify recoverable hydrocarbons as commercial or sub-commercial to reflect their status at the time of reporting.
3The realized price at which revenues from commodity sales equal costs (operating costs, taxes, general & administrative costs and tariffs) plus capital (base, development, projects and exploration) expenditures.
10 20 30 40 50 Cost of Supply ($/BBL) 15 5 10 Net Resources (BBOE) 34 29 21 13 2015 2018E Costs Capital
55 42
2018E vs. 2015
25% UNDERLYING IMPROVEMENT
ANS Cash-Balanced Price3 ($/BBL)
Conventional Unconventional LNG & Oil Sands
1.6 BBOE
Conventional Resource in AK
0.4 BBOE
Added Through 2018 Acquisitions
2.0 BBOE1
Total Net Captured Resource <$40/BBL CoS
5 10 15 Miles
N AT I O N A L P E T R O L E U M R E S E R V E – A L A S K A
Prudhoe Bay
Non-Operated (WI=36%)
Projects Central Processing Facility (CPF) ConocoPhillips Acreage Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS)
Kuparuk
(WI=~95%)
CPF3 CPF2
Prudhoe Bay
Non-Operated (WI=36%)
Projects Central Processing Facility (CPF) ConocoPhillips Acreage Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) CPF1
N AT I O N A L P E T R O L E U M R E S E R V E – A L A S K A
Western North Slope
(WI=100%)
CPF3 CPF1 CPF2
N AT I O N A L P E T R O L E U M R E S E R V E – A L A S K A
GMT-2 GMT-1 Alpine Willow Area
Kuparuk
(WI=~95%)
Prudhoe Bay
Non-Operated (WI=36%)
Projects Central Processing Facility (CPF) ConocoPhillips Acreage Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) CD5
Legacy Position Sets Foundation for Future Growth
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1Estimated pro-forma annualized production including impacts from recent acquisitions.
North Slope A L A S K A Valdez Anchorage
NPR-A
1Assumes a stable and competitive fiscal framework, includes impact of 2018 acquisitions, at working interests of: Western North Slope = 100% / Kuparuk = ~95%, and excludes Alaska North Slope gas sales. 1Assumes a stable and competitive fiscal framework , includes impact of 2018 acquisitions at working interests of: Western North Slope = 100% / Kuparuk = ~95%, and excludes Alaska North Slope gas sales. 2ConocoPhillips net production associated with Alaska North Slope gas sales based on the State of Alaska’s timeline, not included in ConocoPhillips production plots.
Compelling Plan Creates Significant Value for 10+ Years
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BASE
reductions
Base 100 200 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS
underway
Development 100 200 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
PROJECT INVENTORY
Projects 100 200 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
EXPLORATION
Exploration 100 200 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
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ConocoPhillips' Alaska Outlook1
Production (MBOED)
40 80 120
2025 2029 2033 ANS Gas Sales2 (MBOED)
100 200 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
waterflood and miscible water alternating gas (MWAG) recovery
efficiency, improve gas handling and increase recovery
Base Production: Significant Progress on Lowering Decline Rate
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Primary Recovery Water Flood MWAG
Average Reservoir Recovery by Method
~15% ~45% ~60%
MWAG INJECTOR PRODUCER MISCIBLE GAS = SOLVENT RESIDUAL OIL BEHIND WATERFLOOD FRONT OIL BANK
Alaska Base Decline Rate Improved to 6%
(Old decline rate ~8%)
Production1 (MBOED)
1Assumes a stable and competitive fiscal framework, includes impact of 2018 acquisitions at working interests of:
Western North Slope = 100% / Kuparuk = ~95%, and excludes Alaska North Slope gas sales.
Base Production: Sustainable Reductions in Cost of Supply
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Lowered Maintenance Cost & Increased Facility Uptime
efficiency to improve productivity
rapidly apply learnings
with development to minimize peaks and valleys
Lower Intervention Costs & Increased Efficiency
1Person = ConocoPhillips employees and contingent workers; BOPD = gross operated barrels. 2Uptime excludes turnarounds.
Achieving Personnel-Driven Productivity Improvements1
2 0 1 5
O p e r a t e d B O P D p e r p e r s o n
2 0 1 8
O p e r a t e d B O P D p e r p e r s o n
IMPROVEMENT
80% 84% 88% 92% 96% 100% 50 100 150 200 250 2014 2015 2016 2017 Facility Uptime2 Operated Maintenance Capital ($MM) 80% 84% 88% 92% 96% 100% 50 100 150 200 2014 2015 2016 2017 Well Uptime2 Well Intervention Cost ($MM)
50% REDUCTION
IN COST
HISTORIC HIGH
WELL UPTIME
>50% REDUCTION
IN COST
HIGH
OVERALL UPTIME
Coiled Tubing Drilling: Targets Extensive Inventory of Bypassed Oil
supply of ~$30/BBL
efficiency improvements
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2014 1Q 2018
Average Rate of Penetration (ft/day)
FASTER
Example: Kuparuk Octa-Lateral
6350 6375 6400 6375Example: Kuparuk Octa-Lateral Well Path
~20% OF CONOCOPHILLIPS ALASKA PRODUCTION
developed with coiled tubing drilling
Old Technology New Technology
Drilling Technology Advancements: Higher Recovery, Lower CoS
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14K ft 30K ft 30K ft
5 ft sands
New Technology Old Technology
Achieving Cost & Time Savings
Old Technology New Technology
INCREASE
More Footage of Reservoir Drilled
DECREASE Extending Our Reach
with Managed Pressure Drilling
Threading the Needle
with Geo-Steering
Drill & Case in One Run
with Steerable Drilling Liners
Accessing More Reservoir
with Multi-Laterals
Successful CD5 Execution: Leading the Way to NPR-A
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CD5 Expansion Drives Higher Production (BOPD)
achieved higher initial and overall production rates
resolution
and multi-laterals
55% Reduction in CD5 Cost of Supply ($/BBL)
66 36 30
10 14 6 6 FID Sanction Development Optimization Improved Well Performance Cost Efficencies FID Scope Expansion Efficiencies Expansion
CD5 Achieves Peak Rates1 for Alaska (BOPD)
1Monthly average gross oil volumes derived from public AOGCC information.
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 CD5 wells FID Scope Expansion FID Sanction 10,000 20,000 30,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
44 31 5 5 3 FID Facility Cost Production Optimization Operating Cost ERD Program Outlook
resource to be developed with ERD
>100 MMBOE Extended-Reach Drilling: Maximize Recovery, Minimize Footprint
65-Acre Gravel Pad
(1970)**
12-Acre Gravel Pad
(2016)**
12-Acre Gravel Pad
(Future ERD)** Drilling Area Accessible from Pads ~3 sq. miles ~55 sq. miles ~154 sq. miles
Alaska North Slope Reduced Footprint*
*Assumes similar reservoir depth **1970 drilling radius ~ 5,000 ft vs. 2016 drilling radius ~ 22,000 ft vs. future ERD radius ~ 37,000 ft
30% Reduction in Cost of Supply ($/BBL)
20 Future ERD ~37,000’ 2016 ~22,000’ 1970 ~5,000’
Manhattan Bronx Brooklyn Queens
1DEEP (Drilling Execution Efficiency Platform) is proprietary ConocoPhillips drilling technology.
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
GMT- 2 ENEW S GMT- 1 1H NEWS
Identified Future Inventory: Low-Risk, Multi-Year Opportunities
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cost of supply reductions, technology and innovation
Alaska Operated Resource Opportunity Pipeline (Excluding Exploration)
Western North Slope
1Assumes a stable and competitive fiscal framework, includes impact of 2018 acquisitions at working interests of: Western North Slope = 100% / Kuparuk = ~95%, and excludes Alaska North Slope gas sales.
~0.8 BBOE1 RESOURCE DEVELOPED
Development Drilling 1-2 Rotary Rigs & Coiled Tubing Drilling 1H NEWS Kuparuk Eastern NEWS Development ERD Rig Rotary Rig & Coiled Tubing Drilling Extended-Reach Drilling Development Drilling Dev Drilling GMT-1 GMT-2 Development Development Drilling Project 1st oil Dev Drilling
100 200 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Upside Potential: Technology & Innovation is Still in Early Innings
Longer Laterals Enhanced Recovery Thin-Bed Reservoirs Multi-Laterals Ongoing Efficiency Improvements Reservoirs Within Reach 4D Seismic Production Technologies
ConocoPhillips’ Alaska Outlook1 Numerous Technology & Innovation Applications Can Drive Additional Upside Above Outlook
Production (MBOED) Development Projects Base
to deliver 225+ MBOED
~$1B/YEAR CAPITAL
1Assumes a stable and competitive fiscal framework, includes impact of 2018 acquisitions at working interests of: Western North Slope = 100% / Kuparuk = ~95%, and excludes Alaska North Slope gas sales.
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100 200 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Upside Potential: Exploration is a Whole New Ballgame
Development Projects Exploration Base
1Assumes a stable and competitive fiscal framework, includes impact of 2018 acquisitions at working interests of: Western North Slope = 100% / Kuparuk = ~95%, and excludes Alaska North Slope gas sales. 2Gross discovered resource in Alaska since 2016.
Production (MBOED)
discovered resource
500 MMBOE – 1.1 BBOE2
Longer Laterals Enhanced Recovery Thin-Bed Reservoirs Multi-Laterals Ongoing Efficiency Improvements Reservoirs Within Reach 4D Seismic Production Technologies
Numerous Technology & Innovation Applications Can Drive Additional Upside Above Outlook ConocoPhillips’ Alaska Outlook1
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NPR-A Discoveries Open New Westward Frontier
25
Pre-2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019+ Pre-2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019+ Pre-2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019+
Kuparuk
GMT-2 GMT-1 CPF1 CPF2
N AT I O N A L P E T R O L E U M R E S E R V E – A L A S K A
Western North Slope
Alpine CPF3
Prudhoe Bay
Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) Projects Central Processing Facility (CPF) ConocoPhillips Acreage CD5
Willow
Discoveries
Kuparuk
GMT-2 GMT-1 CPF1 CPF2
N AT I O N A L P E T R O L E U M R E S E R V E – A L A S K A
Western North Slope
Alpine CPF3
Willow
Prudhoe Bay
Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) Projects Discoveries Central Processing Facility (CPF) ConocoPhillips Acreage CD5
for ~$30/acre
interest in Western North Slope to 100%
West Willow
Kuparuk
GMT-2 GMT-1 CPF1 CPF2
N AT I O N A L P E T R O L E U M R E S E R V E – A L A S K A
Western North Slope
Alpine CPF3
Willow
Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS)
Prudhoe Bay
Projects Discoveries Central Processing Facility (CPF) ConocoPhillips Acreage CD5
Kuparuk Prudhoe Bay
N AT I O N A L P E T R O L E U M R E S E R V E – A L A S K A
Western North Slope
Undrilled Prospects Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) Projects Discoveries Central Processing Facility (CPF) ConocoPhillips Acreage GMT-2 GMT-1 CPF1 CPF2
West Willow
Alpine CPF3
Willow
North Slope
A L A S K A
Valdez Anchorage NPR-A
CD5
5 10 15 Miles
Testing the Brookian Topset Play
26 Sandy Basin Floor Turbidite Fan Beach Sands Delta Sands River Sands North
Exploration Target Brookian Discovery Existing Jurassic Fields
Willow West Willow GMT-2 Alpine GMT-1 3,000
Vertical Depth (feet)
5,000 7,000 9,000 ConocoPhillips Proprietary Seismic Data Narwhal
Arctic Expertise Enabled Efficient, Successful ‘18 Exploration Program
program completion in winter operations window
well program
resource potential
resource upside
test units, 2 ice road teams and seismic crew
Central Processing Facility Projects Exploration and Appraisal wells
Alpine GMT-2 GMT-1 Putu Stony Hill
Ice Roads
Ice Roads
CSI Seismic
Greater Willow Exploration & Appraisal
finding costs
27 5 10 15 Miles CD5
Narwhal Exploration
2018 Exploration Program Confirms Stand-Alone Hub at Willow
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Greater Willow Area
to Willow hub
development plan
current discovered resource
400 – 750 MMBOE1
2018 Well 2018 Well Test
Preliminary Discovered Resource Range Increased
West Willow 1 T7 T2 T6 T9 T8 5 10 15 Miles Willow Discovery Well
1Gross discovered resource in Alaska since 2016.
Willow Development: Optimize Based on Cost of Supply
1st oil 2024-2025
PLANNING FOR FID IN 2021
Optimize Facility Sizing & Installation Facility & Drill Site Design Locating New Construction Materials Gravel Sourcing Appraisal Wells & Technical Evaluation Subsurface Characterization Utilizing Existing Pipeline Network Transportation Infrastructure Commencing Federal Permitting Process Permitting / EIS Process Leveraging Kuparuk for Willow EOR Source Water for Injection Innovative Approach to Lower Cost & Risk Large Module Offload Location
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Cost of Supply, $/BBL Throughput Capacity
Sweet Spot
Under- Capitalize Over- Capitalize
current discovered resource
100 – 350 MMBOE1 Narwhal Trend: Promising Discoveries with Access to Infrastructure
30
Narwhal trend in 2018
attractive opportunities
Putu 2A
Putu Seismic Amplitude
2018 Exploration Bottom Hole Locations Central Processing Facility Projects Discoveries 2018 Well Tests
1Gross discovered resource in Alaska since 2016.
Alpine GMT-2 GMT-1 Stony Hill Putu 2/2A 5 10 15 Miles CD5
Narwhal Trend
exploration upside
75% PORTFOLIO UNDRILLED Significant Future Exploration & Appraisal Planned
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Greater Willow Appraisal
Narwhal Appraisal
2019 Program Focused on Existing Discoveries Resolve Remaining Uncertainties to Sanction 2020+ Program Focused on Remaining Potential Test Full Prospect Inventory
Projects Discoveries Central Processing Facility ConocoPhillips Acreage Undrilled Prospects N A T I O N A L P E T R O L E U M R E S E R V E – A L A S K A
Western North Slope
5 10 15 Miles
GMT-2 GMT-1
West Willow
Alpine
Willow
1Gross discovered resource in Alaska since 2016.
discovered resource
500 MMBOE – 1.1 BBOE1
CD5
100 200 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Compelling Alaska Plan Creates Significant Value for 10+ Years
32
ConocoPhillips’ Alaska Outlook1
ConocoPhillips
hydrocarbon province
framework, technology and exploration renaissance
legacy Alaska assets
with 75% of play undrilled
to come
Aligns with ConocoPhillips’ Strategy – Supports Alaska’s Economy – Creates Value for Shareholders
Production (MBOED)
1Assumes a stable and competitive fiscal framework, includes impact of 2018 acquisitions at working interests of: Western North Slope = 100% / Kuparuk = ~95%, and excludes Alaska North Slope gas sales.