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Adequacy inaugural workshop Risks missing in the existing - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Adequacy inaugural workshop Risks missing in the existing - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Adequacy inaugural workshop Risks missing in the existing methodology ADDRESSED RISKS SO&AF Assesses the ability of the generation to match the consumption in some predefined snapshots (upward margin at peak load). Seasonal Outlooks
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Risks missing in the existing methodology
SO&AF
Assesses the ability of the generation to match the consumption in some predefined snapshots (upward margin at peak load).
Seasonal Outlooks
Assess the upward adequacy and the downward adequacy of the power system during the successive season using a sequence of snapshots which represent:
- Weekly peak load (upward)
- Weekly minimal demand conditions daily and nightly (downward)
Changes in:
- Energy mix (eg. RES integration)
- Market structure (eg. IEM)
- Consumption behaviour (eg. DSM)
For the future, which additional risks will need to be addressed? ADDRESSED RISKS
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Risks missing in the existing methodology
Risk of „missing capacities“
...
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Load + RES infeed
Increasing RES infeed is changing patterns for residual load regulation
Slide 4 – Introducing flexibility:
Flexibility: The ability to control the processes of production and consumption in order to continuously meet the power balance in the system
What is from your point of view the best way to introduce flexibility resources in the adequacy assessment?
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Different uses of adequacy reports
Different kind of risk exposure: Short term :
- sensitivity on climate fluctuations
- production changes (generation, grid …)
- energy commodities prices
- seasonality
Long term :
- sensitivity on macro economical indicators
- investment risk, political decision (EU goals ..)
- global factors, fundamentals
Different attitude to the risk of the stakeholders:
- investors, generation providers
- TSO, market operators, regulators
- politicians, state institutors, EC
- developers, energy substituents
Different scale of impact:
- local, regional vs. pan-European
- economical sustainability
- environmental
Different uses may focus
- n specific benchmarks,
granularity and structure
- f the assessment
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Additional Value of Pan EU studies
Regional Analysis
Week 4 Wind infeed
NO IMPORTS REQUIRED to cover demand + reserves IMPORT REQUIRED required import <= simultaneous import capacity IMPORT REQUIRED required import > simultaneous import capacity no use of NTC estimated use of NTC < 50 % 75 % > use of NTC > 50 % 100 % > use of NTC > 75 % Full use of NTC estimated No NTC value NO IMPORTS REQUIRED to cover demand + reserves IMPORT REQUIRED required import <= simultaneous import capacity IMPORT REQUIRED required import > simultaneous import capacity no use of NTC estimated use of NTC < 50 % 75 % > use of NTC > 50 % 100 % > use of NTC > 75 % Full use of NTC estimated No NTC value
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ECG SG Adequacy | Nicolas Kitten | 24 April 2013
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Adequacy on different time horizons Short term Long term
6 months 1 year 5 years 10 years
Operational decisions Investment decisions Policy/political decisions
Which risks do you consider should be addressed in the different time horizons?
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Natural gas supply threats
Transparency, public consultation
System flexibility
Use of probabilistic approach
Prioritisation
Retrospect information Severe conditions: load increase and generation constraints Wider difference in scenarios Load management
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Stakeholders
- What can your input and added value be to the assessments and
the improvement of the methodology?
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