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LOCAL HOUSING MARKET & ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT ADA COUNTY Presented by: Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho January 15, 2020 Boise, ID Introduction & Welcome Topics: 1. 2019 Local Housing

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Presented by: Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho January 15, 2020 Boise, ID

LOCAL HOUSING MARKET & ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT ADA COUNTY

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Introduction & Welcome

Topics:

  • 1. 2019 Local Housing Report & 2020 Forecast
  • 2. Economic Impact of Local Home Building
  • 3. Local Government Issues Addressed by BCA

and Savings

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Local Housing Report

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0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Idaho Nevada Arizona Utah Texas South Carolina Washington Colorado Florida North Carolina 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%

Top 10 States in Percent Growth 2019

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

5892 6098 6761 6726 7565 8991 12208 10370 6839 5154 5683 6172 6498 7115 8124 7963 9553 11048 11263 11559 11549

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

A1 - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY

Total Single Family Home Sales

BOOM 2004-2007 BUST 2008-2011 RECOVERY BOOM 2015-

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

2210 2609 3125 4900 3815 1877 1366 1190 986 878 1433 1674 1552 1778 2596 2774 3279 3700 4678 5265 5998 7349 6538 5131 3873 4493 5186 5620 5682 6450 6411 7775 8452 8489 8280 7849 5892 6098 6761 6726 7565 8991 12208 10370 6839 5154 5683 6172 6498 7115 8124 7963 9553 11048 11263 11559 11549

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

A1A - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY

New Construction Sales Existing Sales Total Single Family Home Sales

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

$279,900 $298,450 $306,546 $297,000 $305,000 $324,295 $316,500 $333,900 $318,600 $321,398 $324,250 $324,900 $314,539 $325,000 $336,566 $330,500 $344,545 $353,600 $349,000 $354,900 $349,999 $350,000 $359,900 $350,000

12% 9% 10% 11% 13% 9% 10% 6% 9% 8% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % Change Median Sales $

A10 - Ada County Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price

2018 Median Sales $ 2019 Median Sales $ Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

$365,752 $362,000 $344,535 $375,546 $349,713 $392,526 $379,900 $388,235 $357,500 $376,000 $387,780 $403,272 $367,000 $373,390 $379,990 $370,392 $389,900 $409,900 $389,990 $398,641 $393,245 $401,702 $439,900 $399,912 0% 3% 10%

  • 1%

11% 4% 3% 6% 10% 7% 13%

  • 1%

5% 7% 5% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%

  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % Change Median Sales $

A11 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price

2018 Median Sales $ 2019 Median Sales $ Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY

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1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ada County Permits

Single Family Permits Mulit-Family Permits

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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Single Family Permits

Boise Meridian Eagle Star Kuna Ada County Garden City

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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Multi-Family Permits

Boise Meridian Eagle Star Kuna Ada County Garden City

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

4270 4424 4648 4882 4995 5077 5049 4878 4772 4573 4409 3948 1371 1406 1504 1705 1808 1967 1952 1937 2013 1897 1645 1422 1185 1178 1209 1279 1287 1463 1530 1659 1884 1817 1677 1506

1362 1333 1423 1445 1510 1717 1726 1680 1790 1686 1476 1233

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

A16 - Ada County Residential INVENTORY

2008 2017 2018 2019

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

3005 3206 3405 3581 3770 3910 3920 3795 3706 3555 3430 3029 555 640 737 920 1052 1270 1228 1226 1199 1068 797 582

424 489 562 679 704 816 862 885 1005 889 700 503

488 516 669 727 737 879 919 898 913 774 620 417

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

A60 - Ada County RESALE INVENTORY

2008 2017 2018 2019

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

1265 1218 1243 1301 1225 1167 1129 1083 1066 1018 979 919 816 766 767 785 756 697 724 711 814 829 848 840 761 689 647 600 583 647 668 774 879 930 977 1003

874 817 754 718 773 838 807 782 877 912 856 816

500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

A59- Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION INVENTORY

2008 2017 2018 2019

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

3.8 4.2 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.7 3.3 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2015 Jan Jul 2016 Jan Jul 2017 Jan Jul 2018 Jan Jul 2019 Jan Jul Months to Sell Present Inventory

A28 - Ada Odds Progression w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.

Ada Odds

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS 1 2 3 3 3 8 1.7 1 2 2 2 6 1.3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 $200-249,999 $250-299,999 $300-399,999 $400-499,999 $500-699,999 $700-999,999 $1,000,000 + Total

Months to Sell Present Inventory

AC23 DECEMBER 2019 YTD SELLING ODDS

Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

7.0 7.1 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.0 5.3 6.0 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.3 3.8 3.7 3.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.5 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.7

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2015 Jan Jul 2016 Jan Jul 2017 Jan Jul 2018 Jan Jul 2019 Jan Jul Months to Sell Present Inventory

A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.

Ada Odds

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

7.0 7.1 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.0 5.3 6.0 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.3 3.8 3.7 3.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.1

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2015 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2016 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2017 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2018 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Months to Sell Present Inventory

A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.

Ada Odds

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

7.0 7.1 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.0 5.3 6.0 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.3 3.8 3.7 3.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.5 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.7

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2015 Jan Jul 2016 Jan Jul 2017 Jan Jul 2018 Jan Jul 2019 Jan Jul Months to Sell Present Inventory

A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.

Ada Odds

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS 719 759 862 942 891 857 793 683 670 647 641 598 700 766 815 878 837 806 838 796 741 718 759 756

  • 3%

1%

  • 5%
  • 7%
  • 6%
  • 6%

6% 17% 11% 11% 18% 26%

  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % Change

A48 - Ada County PENDING NEW CONSTRUCTION Sales

2018 Pending Sales Units 2019 Pending Sales Units % Change

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS 1 5 6 4 5 4 1 3 3 3 4 6 3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 $200-249,999 $250-299,999 $300-399,999 $400-499,999 $500-699,999 $700-999,999 $1,000,000 + Total

Months to Sell Present Inventory

AC24 DECEMBER 2019 YTD SELLING ODDS New Construction

Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

$313,748 $305,182 $282,500 $278,106 $297,150 $315,400 $285,927 $349,642 $328,308 $309,000 $334,164 $320,000 $286,125 $299,985 $296,000 $318,760 $316,450 $304,629 $314,900 $326,662 $317,325 $333,450 $311,837 $307,862 $311,190 $340,000 $311,751 $320,768 $317,990 $345,000 $334,900 $353,825 $350,000 $329,900 $339,500 $356,299 $365,752 $362,000 $344,535 $375,546 $349,713 $392,526 $379,900 $388,235 $357,500 $376,000 $387,780 $403,272 $367,000 $373,390 $379,990 $370,392 $389,900 $409,900 $384,990 $398,641 $393,245 $401,702 $439,900 $399,912

25% 33% 30% 28% 30% 29% 28%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 % of Median Inc to buy Median priced home Single Month Median Sales $

A40 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION AFFORDABILITY Index

Single Month Median Sales $ Affordability Index

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Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS $100,000 $110,000 $120,000 $130,000 $140,000 $150,000 $160,000 $170,000 $180,000 $190,000 $200,000 $210,000 $220,000 $230,000 $240,000 $250,000 $260,000 $270,000 $280,000 $290,000 $300,000 $310,000 $320,000 $330,000

A57 - Ada County Market Correction - DECEMBER 2019

Yearly Existing Median Sales Price Equity Existing Median Sales Price 3.7% Appreciation Line - 2000 Base Year

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➢ Sales: UP (12+%) ➢ Price: UP ➢ Permits: UP (7.5%) ➢ Inventory: DOWN (Balanced) ➢ Distressed Inventory: VERY LOW ➢ Months Supply: DOWN ➢ Affordability: UP

Local Housing Report

2019 New Construction Summary

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New Construction Forecast

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New Construction Forecast

✓ 2019 Prediction: Strong Sales and Price Resistance

✓ Price gains not the same % increase as last year ✓ “Later innings”

✓ 2019 Wild Cards:

✓ Inventories (Homes and Lots) … continue as a disciplined recovery? ✓ Interest Rates will rise …… how much? ✓ Inflation: Building Costs, Land & Lot Prices ✓ Labor shortages …. impacts inventory production and costs ✓ Government Regulations - Local and National ✓ Trump Effect ??? – Trade Wars, Government Shutdowns, Trump vs. all

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New Construction Forecast

✓ 2020 Prediction: Growth at a slower Pace

✓ Sales Still Strong, especially first ½ of year and….More Price Resistance (Be Smart) ✓ Price gains similar to, or less than, last year’s % increase ✓ “Later innings”

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New Construction Forecast

✓ 2020 Prediction: Growth at a slower Pace

✓ Sales Still Strong, especially first ½ of year and….More Price Resistance

✓ Price gains similar to, or less than, last year’s % increase ✓ “Later innings”

✓ 2020 Wild Cards: Interest Rates ✓ 2020 Wild Cards (other):

✓ Inventories (Homes and Lots) … continue as a disciplined recovery? ✓ Inflation: Building Costs, Land & Lot Prices ✓ Labor shortages …. impacts inventory production and costs ✓ Government Regulations - Local and National. Election Year ✓ Trump Effect ??? – Trade Wars, Impeachment, Trump vs. all ✓ Recession ?

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More Trends & Impacts

✓ Millennials and Boomers will dominate market ✓ Price spread between New and Existing Homes

✓ Over 21% is better, but still concerning

✓ Fewer homes on the market is the new normal ✓ Opposition to new housing will continue ✓ Interest Rate sensitivity

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Recent quotes in the news….

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Recent quotes in the news….

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Recent quotes in the news….

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Recent quotes in the news….

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Recent quotes in the news….

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Recent quotes in the news….

–

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R ealtor.com : B

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arket in 201 9

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Recent quotes in the news….

–

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arket in 201 9

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Recent quotes in the news….

–

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  • ’

“ ” — Boise landed No. 8 on the list. “ ’ ” ’ ’ “ ’ ” ’ “ ’ ” “ ” “ ” ’ — ’

–

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R ealtor.com : B

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arket in 201 9

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“ ” — “ ’ ” ’ ’ “ ’ ” ’ “ ’ ” “ ” “ ” ’ — ’

2020

1

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NAHB Local Housing Economic Impact Study

for Ada County December 2018

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Economic Direct Impact

2019 SF Residential Construction

Ada County 2019

# of SF Building Permits: 4,890 Median house price: $400,000 Permit/Impact fees: $14,000 Annual property taxes: $3,570

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Economic Direct Impact

2019 SF Residential Construction

Total Taxes & Fees paid to local governments:

Total Permit & Impact Fees: $68,460,000 Property Taxes & Other Fees: $8,728,000

TOTAL $77,188,000

Note: Total Fees Paid = total permits x permit fees Property Taxes = ½ of total permits x value (less owner exemption) x avg. levy

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Top Regulatory Issues Addressed by BCA in 2019

Top BCA issues in 2019

  • 1. State Building Codes

(Residential, Energy, etc.)

  • 2. Meridian Planning Code &

Comp Plan

  • 3. Meridian Building Dept.

(Plan Reviews, inspections)

  • Est. Savings / home

$6,000 $1,500 $600

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Current Local Regulatory Issues

  • 1. State Building Codes: 2018 Residential, Energy, etc.

➢ Bring all Idaho Cities/Counties onto the same code

  • 2. Legislative Issues:

➢ Contractor Registration vs. Licensing

  • 3. Positive Public Relations Outreach
  • 4. Meridian Open Space Ordinance, etc.
  • 5. DEQ: IPDES (Permit for Storm Water Erosion Control)
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Top Regulatory Issues Estimated Savings in 2018 - 2019

$19,500 per home

... 10 homes = $195,000 ... 100 homes = $1,950,000

✓ For every $1,000 increase in home = 482 people priced

  • ut of the local housing market
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Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC

Call: 208-850-1070 Email: dyorgason6@gmail.com

QUESTIONS?

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DATA SOURCES

LOCAL HOUSING REPORT – YEAR END 2018

  • Intermountain MLS, Webb Charts, National Association of Relators

NAHB LOCAL HOUSING ECONOMIC IMPACT – DEC. 2018

  • Building Costs & Sales Price: Local Builders, Developers & IMLS
  • Permits: Ada County and Cities
  • Local Gov’t Revenue (building permit, impact & connection fees,
  • prop. taxes, etc.): Ada County and City Building Depts & Ada

County Assessor

  • Local Government Costs (spending): U.S. Census Bureaus’ Census
  • f Governments (based on inputs from local agencies)
  • Economic Impacts: NAHB, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & U.S. Census Bureaus’ Census of Governments (based on inputs from local agencies)

  • Jobs: Idaho Dept. of Labor & Idaho Dept. of Commerce