A winter story Chris Shorts Director S&T, Marketing & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A winter story

Chris Shorts Director S&T, Marketing & Utilization

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Winter 2017/2018 Commercial overview

• An unexpectedly harsh cold snap across North America resulted in:
• Record gas demand in the U.S. Northeast
• Price spikes in constrained market higher than polar vortex conditions in

2014

• The value of firm Dawn-Parkway transport reinforced
• Significant demand for daily Dawn to Parkway transportation
• Dawn Parkway transportation traded at a significant premium to firm
• Storage at Dawn proven essential
• 30 PJ withdrawn out of Dawn over a 10 day period

Market Update

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Date Month P Prior Beginning o

• f Month

Actual W Weather

Septemb mber 2017

• 20.4%

14.8%

• 19.2%

October 2017 2.4%

• 16.2%
• 30.6%

Novemb mber 2017 2.6%

• 2.4%

5.1% Decemb mber 2017 0.4% 16.1% 18.0%

January 20 2018 18

2.6% 15.0% 1.4%

February 20 2018 18

1.1% 18.8%

• 9.6%

March 20 2018 18

8.7%

• 6.7%

6.4% Ewea Eweather ther Fore Forecast cast Ov Over er Time Time 2017 2017-2018 2018 (+ (+Co Cold lder er/-Wa Warm rmer r than than No Norm rmal) al)

Weather forecasts highly unpredictable

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Dawn supports increased demand Increasing Supplies into the system

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Natural Gas Prices at Dawn Extreme Cold Period

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Ontario Power Generation Supply Mix

Dec 2017 – Jan 2018 Cyclone Bomb

• Dec. 27, 2017 to Jan. 01, 2

2018

(Source www.sygration.com)

• Jan. 02 to Jan. 07, 2018

Natural g gas helped me meet peak electricity dema mand during the extreme me weather

Dec 28, 28, 17 17 4, 4,414 414 MWH Dec 29, 29, 17 17 4, 4,500 500 MWH Dec 31, 31, 17 17 4, 4,232 232 MWH Jan 06, 06, 18 18 5, 5,022 022 MWH

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Source: Sygration

Natural g gas also helps me meet peak dema mand during h heat waves when renewables are not running

July 19, 19,2017 2017 3, 3,167 167 MW

Ontario Power Generation Supply Mix

July & September 2017 Summer Heat Wave

July 20, 20,2017 2017 2, 2,283 283 MW July 21, 21,2017 2017 2, 2,840 840 MW

• Sept. 23,

23, 2017 2017 4, 4,202 202 MW

• Sept. 24,

24, 2017 2017 4, 4,275 275 MW

• Sept. 27,

27, 2017 2017 5, 5,331 331 MW

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Dawn Continues to Play a Critical Role

• Storage: 8 of historical Top 25 withdrawal days
• Physical peak on January 1st, 2018 – 4.2 PJ
• Parkway Discharge: 14 of historical Top 25 days
• Physical peak December 28th, 2017 – 3.6 PJ
• Dawn Sendout: 8 of historical Top 25 Dawn to Parkway sendout days
• Physical peak January 5th, 2018 – 6.5 PJ
• Net Kirkwall Deliveries and Exports west of Dawn on Vector Pipeline
• Dec 27 – Jan 6
• Imports at Kirkwall normally 400,000 to 700,000 GJ/d

Value of Dawn

Union system reliability and flexibility was critical to meet firm demands during extreme cold period