Lebanese German Business Council -September 16, 2008
A New Era for Telecommunications in Lebanon
- Dr. Kamal Shehadi
A New Era for Telecommunications in Lebanon Dr. Kamal Shehadi - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A New Era for Telecommunications in Lebanon Dr. Kamal Shehadi Chairman & CEO Telecommunication Regulatory Authority Lebanese German Business Council -September 16, 2008 Click to edit Master title style Table of Contents I. The Benefits
Lebanese German Business Council -September 16, 2008
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“… there is a need to reduce the cost of production resulting mainly from unreliable supply of electricity, the high cost of telecommunication …” “The Government of Lebanon will implement reforms in order to improve competitiveness and reduce the cost of doing business in Lebanon…” “The government will seek a greater private sector role in sectors such as telecommunications…” International Conference for Support to Lebanon” - Paris III Conference
ﺔﻴﻤﻟﺎﻌﻟا تﻻﺎﺼﺗﻻا ةرﻮﺛ ﺔﺒآاﻮﻣ ﻞﺟأ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﺗﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﻤﻟا ﻊﻤﺘﺠﻣ ءﺎﻨﺑ ﻰﻟإ فﺪﻬﺗ عﺎﻄﻘﻟا اﺬﻬﻟ ﺔﻳؤر ﻢﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻳ ﺎﻬﺗدﺎﻳرو تارﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻ قﻮﺴﻟا ﺢﺘﻓو تﻻﺎﺼﺗﻻا عﺎﻄﻗ ﺮﻳﺮﺤﺘﺑ قﺎﻴﺴﻟا اﺬه ﻲﻓ مﺰﺘﻠﺗ ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻨﺒﻠﻟا ﺔﻣﻮﻜﺤﻟاو ،ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا ﻲﻓ قﻮﻘﺣ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣو ﺔﺴﻓﺎﻨﻤﻟاو صﺎﺨﻟا عﺎﻄﻘﻟاﻚﻠﻬﺘﺴﻤﻟا. The TRA is charged with promoting competition in telecommunications (Telecommunications Law, Art. 5.1(C)). The Law provided for the liberalization of the telecommunications market by privatizing state-owned telecommunications entities and opening the market to private sector investments and competition.
Telecommunications Law 431 / 2002
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MoT: policymaker, regulator and service provider CoM: Arbitrary regulatory role (e.g. issuing all licenses) No formal regulatory regime
Before Telecom Law 431 After Telecom Law 431
Ministry of Telecommunications MoT Policymaker
telecom policy
some broadband licenses ( Mobile, int’ll voice & fixed)
pricing of Radio Frequency
TRA documents as per Law 431
TRA Regulator Draft and implement regulations Award telecom licenses Ensure competition and prevent anti-competitive behavior Manage on behalf of GoL radio frequencies Operators Incumbents & New Entrants Provide telecom services to the public Install own and manage telecom networks and facilities Abide by TRA regulations, decisions and licenses
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Increase service penetration Increase customer choice Improve price to quality ratio Introduce new technologies and services Reach underserved areas Keep up with technological advances Introduce good governance and management Ensure more effective infrastructure Improve sector productivity Improve financial performance Increase overall telecom revenues Attract private and foreign capital Improve connectivity and penetration of ICT Generate revenues from privatization Generate revenues from licenses Spur job creation throughout the economy Join international trade organizations (e.g. WTO) Join the global trading system (e.g. EU association) Catalyze growth of information economy Improve global competitiveness of the economy Improve general economic performance
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04
Mobile subscriber base (in Million) Effective charge (in Rupee. per min.) Cellular Mobile Growth and effective charge per minute
Fixed Mobile Cellular WLL(M) Mobile Subscriber base
NTP '99 Telecom Tariff Order 3rd & 4th cellular
WLL introduced CPP introduced Lowering of ADC from 30% to 10% of sector revenue Sep-04 43 Jun-04
Source: OECD Communications Outlook 2005
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In Jordan, a country with comparable population and size but much lower per capita income, liberalization and licensing of new mobile operators met with jumps in mobile penetration. Real benefits were realized after the introduction of the third and fourth mobile operators
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Penetration Rate Year 20 40 60 80 100 120 y-3 y-2 y-1 y 0 y+1 y+2 Batelco STC Fastlink Qtel
Prices start decreasing prior to competition in a move to prepare for the entry of a new operator. As a result of competition prices tend to continue decreasing after liberalization unless capped by the regulator Evolution of Lowest Mobile Peak Minute Rate Evolution of Mobile Penetration In Jordan
Fastlink Mobilecom Xpress Umniah
Year competition introduced in concerned markets, 2004 for Qtel
Sources: Tarifica, Operators, Booz Allen and Hamilton, Global Investment House, World Bank
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International experience shows that countries with a liberalized telecommunications sector have proven to be more technologically advanced, offering more choices and better access to their customers
The map shows networks commercially launched as of May 2007. For some countries where more than one technology has been commercially deployed, the most advanced technology is represented. 2G = Second-generation wireless telephone technology CDMA2000 1x = Code Division Multiple Access CDMA2000 1x EV-DO = Code Division Multiple Access Evolution- Data Optimized WCDMA = Wideband Code Division Multiple Access HSDPA= High-Speed Downlink Packet Access Source: ITU, based on data adapted from 3Gtoday
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Operator Name National Fixed Internati
alls Mobile Internet Leased Line Other data services 2 Connect
7 15 2 10 6 6
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Enterprise employment growth +1.2% Sales growth +3.4% Profitability +5.1% Investment rate +2.5% Re-Investment rate +6.0% Total factor productivity +1.0% Effect of Liberalization on the Telecommunications Industry Worldwide, Telecom liberalization has positively impacted sector performance and the penetration of key
improvement of performance
Sources: Petrazzini, World Bank
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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20 40 60 80 100 Labour (Hourly) Productivity % of workers with access to broadband Services ( 10 EU countries)
Source: EU 6th framework program EUKLEMS 2008
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20 40 60 80 100 Labour (Hourly) Productivity % of workers with access to broadband Manufacturing ( 10 EU countries)
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Africa Asia Oceania Americas Europe World
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ ICT Indicators Database
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 517 1,472 Telecom Service Revenue as a % of GDP Telecom Service Revenues in US $ Billion
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Source: PTA
0.5 1 1.5 2 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06
Telecom Revenue as % of GDP
485 798 949 1,524 3,521 6 14 207 494 1,905
1 2 22 32 54
10 20 30 40 50 60 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06
Total FDI FDI in Telecom Telecom Share (%) Total FDI in Telecom Sector ( $ US Million) Telecom Revenue as a % of GDP
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10% increase in mobile penetration in developing countries leads to a 1.2% increase in GDP
Sources: BAH, TRA analysis and GSMA, Global Mobile Tax review 2006-2007
4.15% 3.75% 1.87% 0.73% 0.49% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP Growth Mobile contribution to GDP growth 9.15% 8.75% 6.87% 5.73% 5.49%
Assuming : a normal GDP growth of 5% and a mobile penetration reaching 73% in 2012 the GDP per Capita will then reach US$ 9,0.38representing an increase of 10.9% in GDP
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199 199 2 199 3 199 4 199 1 90 120 110 100 Competitive Markets Monopoly Markets Employment (normalized) Index 1990 = 100 A comparative analysis of 26 countries in Asia and Latin America between 1990 and 1994 shows that employment in competitive markets increased by 20.73% while employment in other markets grew by only 3.13% Effect of Liberalization on Employment
Sources: Petrazzini, World Bank
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2003 2007 Q2 28 % growth since 2003
Effect of Liberalization on employment in Bahrain
Sources: TRA Bahrain
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faster than 2mbps have productivity that was 4% higher than those with lower speeds
Sources: Broadband Stakeholder Group (UK); New Zealand National Broadband Strategy, the Scottish Executive
jump to 70% - 90% household broadband penetration in the 15 EU countries will bring about 1% to 1.6 % increase in GDP
in 8 years
current workforce as a result of broadband rollout
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Fixed Mobile Broadband
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Strengths Weaknesses
Relatively good copper infrastructure Regionally competitive price per minute No competition No incentive to upgrade the infrastructure and introduce new technologies Low penetration rate Stagnant growth Pent up demand for mobile services High mobile revenues per user No competition Lag behind in terms of new technologies (e.g. MMS, EDGE) High connection and subscription charges High per minute prices / Per minute pricing Limited choice in mobile packages, Bad QoS Saturated mobile network /no upgrade Low Penetration Relatively competitive Lucrative segment New wireless technologies deployed Pent-up demand for data and internet services No ADSL services launched yet Access is hindered by incumbent operator Until recently, high international bandwidth prices Uncertainty over regulatory framework
International Access
4 Future expansion Plans ( I-ME-WE) No competition No transparent allocation spectrum Limited capacity High prices for retail
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Source: Globalcomms, operator data, ITU, Arab Advisors Group
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Fixed line penetration Mobile penetration Broadband penetration Internet penetration
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Bahrain Jordan Morocco Tunisia United Arab Emirates Egypt Algeria Venezuela Romania Chile South Africa Poland Bulgaria Slovakia Hungary Singapore Ireland Italy Libya LEBANON
y = 0.3441Ln(x) - 2.1968 R2 = 0.6852 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
LEBANON Libya Italy Czech Republic Ireland Singapore Hungary Slovakia Bulgaria Poland South Africa Chile Romania Venezuela Saudi Arabia Algeria Egypt United Arab Emirates Tunisia Morocco Jordan Bahrain Russia Qatar Kuw ait
y = 0.2162Ln(x) - 1.1851 R2 = 0.7209 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Libya US Germany Spain UK Italy France Egypt UAE Qatar KSA Bahrain LEBANON Jordan Venezuela Saudi Arabia Peru Egypt Algeria
y = 0.1165Ln(x) - 0.689 R2 = 0.483 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Fixed Line Penetration vs. GDP per Capita (2005)
PSTN Penetration GDP per Capita (USD/ Year) Mobile Penetration Internet Penetration
Mobile Penetration vs. GDP per Capita (2005) Internet Penetration vs. GDP per Capita (2005)
GDP per Capita (USD/ Year) GDP per Capita (USD/ Year)
Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit, interviews with industry
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13 13 8 8 8 7 6 6 4
MTC touch Alfa Etisalat STC MobileCom Fastlink Batelco Mobinil Umniah
38 36 17 14 12 8 8 8 7
MTC Touch Alfa STC Fastlink Batelco Umniah MobileCom Etisalat Mobinil
60% higher than the lowest regional rate More than double the lowest regional rate
Mobile Postpaid Peak On-net Minute Rates (2006) (US$ cents per peak minute) Mobile Prepaid Peak On-net Minute Rates (2006) (US$ per peak minute)
Note: All Rates corresponds to the lowest first minute rate
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Source: Operators Websites
Monthly charge to use 15 GB/month (500MB/day) using 1Mbps ADSL connection
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Comparison of DSL penetration (% of population) with the Arab Countries in 2008
Source: Operators Websites
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0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Colombia Dominican Republic Thailand Grenada Tunisia Iran Belize China St Vincent et Grenadine Dominica Venezuela Algeria Vietnam Georgia Jamaica Morocco Maldives Peru Fiji Cape Verde Jordan Philippines Egypt
Lebanon
Source: UN E-Government Readiness Survey, 2008
Broadband Penetration (subscribers per 100 inhabitants) 2007 GDP per capita (US$, 2007)
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Estimation of bandwidth requirements for the UK households:
downstream and 3 Mbps upstream
Mbps downstream and 14 Mbps upstream
Source: New Zealand National Broadband Strategy , Broadband Stakeholder Group UK Teleconference Online games MP3 streaming Video Conference Multiplayers game Video Streaming Video on Demand Multi‐Channel TV Quality Video Streaming 5 second CD download Web Surfing Virtual Reality VOIP Telepresence Email 0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Current Limit on Residential Broadband
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To establish a regulatory environment that enables a competitive telecommunications market to deliver state-of-the-art services at affordable prices to the broadest spectrum of the Lebanese population
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mobile Network Operator Virtual Network MNVOs PSTN/ Basic Telephony Network Operator Reseller Broadband Access National International Access Facilities Service Provider Reseller
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** * Liban Telecom expected ** TRA is still considering the appropriate number of NBLs to issue *** Two for the mobile licenses, one for Liban Telecom and two others for the NBLs for data traffic only
License Award Open licensing Market Review
Notes
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TRA has already issued interim license for Incumbent DSPs. TRA has started spectrum refarming exercise which is intended to to free up some of the spectrum currently used by DSPs and other operators and make it available to new entrants as well as incumbents in a manner that allows optimal use of spectrum.
Liban Telecom National Broadband Licenses Some Broadband Access Licenses
Liban Telecom National Broadband Licenses Broadband Access Licenses
User1 User1 User1 Ras Beirut Mazraa Ras Beirut Achrafieh Sin El Fil
Tripoli Bekaa Saida
Liban Telecom National Broadband Licenses
Beirut
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Most of the preparatory work for the auction has been completed: Executed an MOU with the Higher Council for Privatization (HCP) to ensure smooth privatization and licensing Launched the Tender Process for privatization and licensing of mobile in November 2007:
Mobile Auction Launch: RFA published
January 2008 Licensing Process Freeze November 2007 To+ 2 (Mths)
GoL Decision to Re launch Process Auction – Announcing two winning bidders
To To+ 5 (Mths)
Handover completed Crucial phase that should be completed smoothly and in the specified time Technical & Pre-Auction Financial Bids Due
To+ 3 (Mths)
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Scope of Mobile Licenses: Provision of any service over the licensed frequencies, including 3G mobile broadband services. Installation, ownership and operation of a facilities‐based international gateway. Provision of all international services to their own end users. Obligations: Geographic roll‐out and coverage obligations Certain payment obligations: License fees Spectrum fees Numbering Fees Provision of mobile number portability to their customers to ensure a fair consumer choice. Provision of national roaming to the third entrant to allow a faster development of competition.
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Directorate General of Construction and Equipment Directorate General of Post Directorate of General Control Directorate of Common Administrative Directorate of Operation and Maintenance
Directorate General of Posts Directorate General of Telecommunications Joint Administrative Division Division of Central Control Current Structure Mandated Structure Under the Telecom Law
Restructuring of MoT – NOT YET STARTED The TRA views the creation and privatization of Liban Telecom as a major step in the history of the telecommunications sector and a central component of future growth
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Spectrum Management and Licensing Regulation Administering and Implementing the NNP
Drafting Stage Draft Ready Stage Consultation Stage Final Review (TRA Board) Issued
Type Approval Regulation Accounting Separation Regulation Spectrum Pricing Opinion Consumer Affairs Regulation Significant Market Power Regulation Unbundling Regulation Broadband Policy Statement Lebanese National Frequency Table National Numbering Plan Liberalization Roadmap Licensing Regulation Interconnection Regulation Decisions:
Allocation for MoT / OGERO VOIP Policy Statement Pricing Regulation National Roaming Interconnection Interim Pricing Decision Spectrum Refarming Guidelines Quality of Service Regulation Regulatory Framework for establishment of call centers
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