A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG Wu-chang Feng Debanjan - - PDF document

▶
a long term study of a popular mmorpg
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG Wu-chang Feng Debanjan - - PDF document

Oct 24, 2023 130 likes •301 views

A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG Wu-chang Feng Debanjan Saha David Brandt W. Feng, A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007. Imagine yourself In charge of running a successful MMORPG

slide-1
SLIDE 1
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG

Wu-chang Feng Debanjan Saha David Brandt

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Imagine yourself

Ø In charge of running a successful MMORPG Ø Your goal

Ø Make money Ø 100k+ people paying you $20 a month to play

slide-2
SLIDE 2
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Questions

Ø How many players will there be next week?

Ø Provision servers to support them

Ø What can I do to increase this number?

Ø Impact of game updates and promotions

Ø What can I do to make sure players don’t quit?

Ø Detecting disinterested players

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Difficult questions to answer

Ø Requires player data from a successful MMORPGs over a

long time period (fat chance!)

Ø Never hurts to ask…

Ø Remember NetGames 2004? Ø David Brandt, CCP Games

slide-3
SLIDE 3
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

EVE Online

Ø Single world sci-fi MMORPG

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

EVE Online statistics

Ø Launched in UK and USA on May 6, 2003

Ø Europe on May 23, 2003 Ø China on June 12, 2006

Ø As of August 3, 2007

Ø 190,000 active subscriptions Ø 35,000+ peak concurrent on-line players

Ø How does it stack up against other MMOs?

slide-4
SLIDE 4
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Not too shabby

Ø Source: http://mmogchart.com (6/2006)

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

EVE Online trace

Ø Anonymized authentication log of EVE Online

throughout its existence

Ø All session-related events for each player

17,204 years Total player time 925,928 Total unique players 67,060,901 Total sessions May 6, 2003 – March 12, 2006 Duration

slide-5
SLIDE 5
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Questions

Ø How many players will there be next week?

Ø Provision servers to support them

Ø What can I do to increase this number?

Ø Impact of game updates and promotions

Ø What can I do to make sure players don’t quit?

Ø Detecting disinterested players

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Previous study

Ø Gamespy

Ø 550 games (mostly FPS) Ø Nov 2002-Jan 2005 Ø 337.8k player years

  • C. Chambers, W. Feng, D. Saha, S. Sahu, “Traffic

Characterization of a Collection of On-line Games”, IMC 2005 (Best student paper)

slide-6
SLIDE 6
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Game workloads

Ø Periodic

Ø Strong daily peaks with weaker weekend peaks

Gamespy EVE Online

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Gamespy EVE Online

Game workloads

Ø Predictable over short-term

Ø Workload fluctuations small from week-to-week

slide-7
SLIDE 7
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Questions

Ø How many players will there be next week?

Ø Provision servers to support them

Ø What can I do to increase this number?

Ø Impact of game updates and promotions

Ø What can I do to make sure players don’t quit?

Ø Detecting disinterested players

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

EVE Online growth

Ø Active player population throughout trace EVE Online

slide-8
SLIDE 8
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Mechanisms for increasing population

Ø New game content and updates Ø Promotions and marketing Ø Price reduction

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Impact of game updates

Ø Gain in players after each game update in trace

Ø Large gains after initial release Ø Modest gains after subsequent game updates

Ø Castor spikes

Ø Competing sci-fi MMORPG shuttered Ø Marketing blitz during game conference (free accounts)

slide-9
SLIDE 9
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Questions

Ø How many players will there be next week?

Ø Provision servers to support them

Ø What can I do to increase this number?

Ø Impact of game updates and promotions

Ø What can I do to make sure players don’t quit?

Ø Detecting disinterested players

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Player churn

Ø A fact of MMORPG life

Ø MMORPGs notorious for low acquisition rates Ø EVE Online player acquisition rate drops over time

Ø Potential reasons

Ø New players at a disadvantage Ø Hard-core player population “tapped” out

slide-10
SLIDE 10
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Acquiring new players is hard

Let’s keep the ones we have instead!

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Can we measure disinterest?

Ø Examining play history to detect waning interest

Ø Minutes played per week Ø Session length statistics Ø Inter-session time statistics

slide-11
SLIDE 11
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Metric #1: Minutes played per week

Ø Minutes played per week throughout play history

Ø Players play less over time

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Metric #2: Session times

Ø Session time distribution

Ø Session length of “final” session shorter than normal

slide-12
SLIDE 12
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Metric #3: Intersession times

Ø Intersession time distribution

Ø “Final” intersession time significantly longer than

normal

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Catching a disinterested player

Ø Aggregate not individual statistics

Ø Addicts thrown in with casual gamers Ø Normalize per-player

Ø What percentile does final session and final inter-session

times fall into versus player’s prior times?

Ø “Final” intersession time a very good predictor!

slide-13
SLIDE 13
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Conclusion

Ø A close look at a popular MMORPG over a long

period of time

Ø Key observations

Ø Workload stability Ø Player acquisition and churn Ø Measuring disinterest

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Questions?

slide-14
SLIDE 14
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Extra slides

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Gamespy

Game workloads

Ø Unpredictable over long-term

slide-15
SLIDE 15
  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Impact of game updates

Ø Player minutes per week as a function of last

game update

  • W. Feng, “A Long-term Study of a Popular MMORPG", NetGames 2007, Sept. 19-20, 2007.

Player sessions

Ø Many play for a short time