A Bargain Might Not Exist: How the Distribution of Power Causes War - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A Bargain Might Not Exist:

How the Distribution of Power Causes War Richard Jordan

Princeton

September 5, 2015

Motivation

Central Claim: A bargain that all states prefer to war might not exist, even in the absence of all existing explanations for conflict. Implication: We have barely begun to explore rationalist explanations for war.

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Motivation

Rationalist Explanations for Conflict: Fearon: info problems, commitment problems, indivisible goods future cost of arming

e.g. Jackson and Morelli (2009) and Coe (2012)

principal-agent problems

e.g. Downs and Rocke (1994) and Goemans (2000)

and alliance dynamics Everything we know about bargaining and war hinges on the second question we should ask.

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Motivation

As a result of bargaining models... polarity or a ‘quest for hegemony’ can’t explain the failure to bargain neither can expansionist, revisionist, or imperialist ideologies Powell (1996): odds of war are independent of the distribution of power, contra preponderance-of-power and balance-of-power theories In short: the distribution of power has become uninteresting

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Motivation

Is this Satisfying?

1 Why do rising states start wars?

if commitment problems cause war, declining state should initiate

2 Why is appeasement dangerous?

under current models, appeasement is a problem only when transferring goods strengthens an aggressor in a large and discontinuous way

Simplifying the distribution of power has made it uninteresting.

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Motivation

A Bargain Might not Exist Because...

1 Power is complex in games with N > 2 actors 2 Wars can end in stalemate among N ≥ 2 actors Richard Jordan (Princeton) A Bargain Might Not Exist: September 5, 2015 6 / 19

Multiplayer Games

Power is Complicated

Among 2 players, power is simple: p and 1 − p distribution of goods roughly x = p and y = 1 − p, give or take c. Among 3+ players, power is complex Consider Rock/Paper/Scissors which is strongest? What is the numeric power of each? what will be the distribution of goods to each?

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Multiplayer Games

Power is complex: The order in which actors fight their enemies matters Whom they fight and when matters (all at once? one-by-one?) How they fight matters Some actors are strong against some and weak against others

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Multiplayer Games

A Simple Example - WWI

German odds of victory:

1 2 Germany fights France and then, if it wins, Russia 1 3 Germany fights France and Russia simultaneously

French and Russian odds of victory

1 3 fight Germany at the same time, then fight each other

Country Demand Germany

1 2

France

1 3

Russia

1 3

Sum 11

6

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Multiplayer Games

Proposition 1

Proposition If stalemate is impossible, then for any set of players N and distribution of power p there exists a game (N, p, c) which is never peaceful if and only if N and p satisfy divide-and-conquer. Divide and Conquer: at least one actor prefers to fight its enemies piecemeal rather than all at the same time. In short: If the distribution of power among actors satisfies Divide-and- Conquer, whether a bargain exists depends on the costs of war.

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Multiplayer Games

Why is this a novel result? Most multilateral models focus on alliance politics or use the standard contest function: mα

i

• j∈J mα

j

(J is the set of all actors in a war, m captures an actor’s total materiel, and α augments this materiel for returns to scale.)

This function implies that actors always prefer to fight their enemies all at once. Moreover, to assume that actors always prefer to fight their enemies piecemeal requires a new concept: stalemate.

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Stalemate

Stalemate

“[the model] leaves open the question of how...the possibility of fighting to a stalemate would affect the outcomes derived from the present

• formulations. Exploring this question is an important task for future

rounds of the modeling enterprise”

• Robert Powell, In the Shaodow of Power (1999)

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Stalemate

Clausewitz made a mistake. war is a duel in which “each tries through physical force to compel the other to do his will...to make him incapable of further resistance” most models: negotiated settlement or (eventually) decisive victory an empire might be able to destroy a small state with probability .9, but this ability does not imply the small state can destroy the empire with probability .1

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Stalemate

Clausewitz made a mistake. war is a duel in which “each tries through physical force to compel the other to do his will...to make him incapable of further resistance” most models: negotiated settlement or (eventually) decisive victory an empire might be able to destroy a small state with probability .9, but this ability does not imply the small state can destroy the empire with probability .1 for one side, the purpose of fighting might not be to render an enemy incapable of further resistance; rather, it might be to render him incapable of further aggression.

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Stalemate

In standard models, Demand = Pr(victory)∗1− costs of war xA = pA − c But if stalemate is possible, Demand = Pr(victory)∗1+Pr(stalemate)∗current share - costs of war xA ≥ pA + pSwA − c

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Stalemate

Why does war happen? Melos has $10 Athens can defeat Melos with odds 1

• 2. Melos cannot defeat Athens.

war costs Athens and Melos $1 each

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Stalemate

Why does war happen? Melos has $10 Athens can defeat Melos with odds 1

• 2. Melos cannot defeat Athens.

war costs Athens and Melos $1 each Athens demands $4. Say Melos yields. Then...

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Stalemate

Why does war happen? Melos has $10 Athens can defeat Melos with odds 1

• 2. Melos cannot defeat Athens.

war costs Athens and Melos $1 each Athens demands $4. Say Melos yields. Then... Melos has $6. Athens demands an extra $2. And so on, until...

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Stalemate

Why does war happen? Melos has $10 Athens can defeat Melos with odds 1

• 2. Melos cannot defeat Athens.

war costs Athens and Melos $1 each Athens demands $4. Say Melos yields. Then... Melos has $6. Athens demands an extra $2. And so on, until... Melos is left with $2. If Melos fought initially, it would get $4. So Melos defies Athens, and Athens fights.

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Stalemate

Three outcomes for dissatisfied states:

1 Nothing: if costs are high, the satisfied state ignores its rival 2 Appeasement: if costs are moderate, the satisfied state yields

enough to avoid war

3 Revisionist War: if costs are low enough, the satisfied state

refuses its rival’s demands. The dissatisfied state then seeks to revise the status quo through force. This is perhaps the first rationalist explanation for revisionist war.

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Stalemate

Proposition A two-player game is peaceful for all costs of war c if and only if either

1 stalemate is impossible, pS = 0 2 stalemate is guaranteed, pS = 1 3 the initial distribution of wealth is exactly proportional to relative

power, wA =

pA pA+pB

We can characterize distributions of power based on their stability, i.e. the costs of war necessary to create a bargaining range.

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Stalemate

Conclusion

When explaining conflict... Our first question must be: did a bargain exist? Military technology, the distribution of wealth, and the configuration of power can eliminate a bargaining range. Therefore, the distribution of power must once again become our first subject of interest

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Stalemate

Finis.

scholar.princeton.edu/rjordan · rpjordan@princeton.edu

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References

Coe, Andrew J. 2012. “Costly Peace: A New Rationalist Explanation for War.” working paper. URL: http : //media.wix.com/ugd/c8f493e18cc6fd420f42b9bdd48ba6c928f3d9.pd f Downs, George W., and David M. Rocke. 1994. “Conflict, Agency, and Gambling for Resurrection: The Principal-Agent Problem Goes to War.” American Journal of Political Science 38 (2): pp. 362-380. URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2111408 Fearon, James. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49: 379-414. Goemans, H. E. 2000. “Fighting for Survival: The Fate of Leaders and the Duration of War.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (5): pp. 555-579. URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/174644 Howard, Michael. 1983. The Causes of Wars and other essays. Unwin. Jackson, Matthew O., and Massimo Morelli. 2009. “Strategic Militarization, Deterrence and Wars.” Quarterly Journal of Political

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Additional Slides

Science 4 (4): 279-313. URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00009047 Powell, Robert. 1996. “Stability and the Distribution of Power.” World Politics 48 (02): 239–267.

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