8.1 Report on 2014 Alameda Voter Research Conducted for Alameda County Transportation Commission June 26, 2014 2014 Opinion Research Telephone survey of likely voters in Alameda County Objective Details • Test support for the ballot measure • Interviewing conducted April 3-14, 2014 among a representative sample of likely • 803 total interviews countywide; Margin of November 2014 voters error: + 3.5 percentage points • Test the impact that information has on • Data is representative of the likely support for the measure November 2014 voter population Web-panel survey of voters in Alameda County Objective Details • Test the order of ballot question wording • Interviewing conducted June 2-8, 2014 and element order • 400 total interviews; Margin of error: +4.9 percentage points • Allow voters to read the ballot language • Data reflects demographics of a likely to better simulate how they would react to it when voting November 2014 voter population; vote history and voter registration status of web panelists was unavailable 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 2 1
2014 Opinion Research Key Findings • The revenue measure environment in Alameda County has improved since 2012. • A measure to augment and extend the existing county transportation sales tax is supported by more than two-thirds of Alameda County voters. • Elements of the Transportation Expenditure Plan are well supported by the voters. • Measure support holds up under strong opposition messaging and under the conditions of a low turnout election. • The ballot question under consideration communicated the components of the measure clearly. 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 3 Right Direction/Wrong Track Over Time Overall optimism has improved significantly since 2012. Right Direction Wrong Track 60% 56% 49% 51% 49% 48% 43% 41% 40% 36% 42% 36% 34% 34% 28% 26% 23% 20% Q3:Do you think things in Alameda County are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 4 2
Initial Vote A measure to augment and extend Alameda County’s transportation sales tax is supported by 72% of Alameda County voters. Ballot Question (Sample A) 22% Definitely/ Shall voters authorize implementing the Alameda Probably No 1% County 30 year Transportation Expenditure Plan to: 5% • Expand and modernize BART in Alameda County; Lean No 3% • Improve transit connections to jobs and schools; • Fix roads, improve highways and increase bicycle Und and pedestrian safety; • Reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality; 72% 68% Lean Yes • Keep senior, student, and disabled fares affordable? Approval augments and extends the existing County Definitely/ sales tax, with independent oversight and audits. Probably Yes All money will benefit local residents. Overall* The following measure may be on the ballot this year in Alameda County…If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? (Q6, Sample A) *Shows the combined results from Samples A (Question-led) and B (Elements-led) 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 5 in April telephone poll. Measure Information Elements of the expenditure plan are well supported. Much more likely to support (7) More likely to support (5-6) Total Improve transportation for those who live in AC 38% 34% 72% Helps seniors be transit independent 35% 36% 71% 36% 35% 71% Fund youth transit pass Road and pothole repairs throughout county 33% 35% 68% Improve walking routes 29% 37% 66% 29% 37% 66% Improve biking routes 34% 32% 66% Improve air quality Smooth traffic flow 28% 37% 65% Improve BART frequency, reliability, comfort, and 29% 36% 65% safety I’m going to read you some things people might say about the transportation sales tax ballot measure. After each statement, please tell me if it would make you less likely or more likely to support this measure…(Q38 -54). (April 2014) 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 6 3
Vote Progression The vote does drop after the opposition messaging, but it stays above the two- thirds mark. 21% 23% 26% 4% 5% 3% No Undecided 75% 72% 71% Yes Initial vote* After Information* After Opposition* * Combined votes from Samples A & B. 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 7 November General Elections Turnout Over Time Turnout has edged up over the decade, but was lower in 2012 than in 2000. Total Registration Total Ballot 900,000 800,000 700,000 78% 74 % 77% 600,000 75% 500,000 400,000 61% 51-58% 56% 61% 300,000 53% 200,000 100,000 0 Nov-98 Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-14* *projected 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 8 4
Initial Vote by Turnout Scenarios There is a 1 point difference in measure support between a 57% voter turnout election and a more conservative 53% turnout election. 23% 24% No 5% 5% Undecided 72% 71% Yes Nov. 2014 Electorate Voted 3-6/6 - (53% Turnout) Overall - (57% Turnout) Combined initial vote. 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 9 A Closer Look at the Ballot Question 5
Additional Research Looked at Question Wording Proposed Ballot Question Shall voters authorize implementing the Alameda County 30 year Transportation Expenditure Plan to: • Expand and modernize BART in Alameda County; • Improve transit connections to jobs and schools; • Fix roads, improve highways and increase bicycle and pedestrian safety; • Reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality; and • Keep senior, student, and disabled fares affordable? Approval augments by ½ cent and extends the existing County sales tax, with independent oversight and audits. All money will benefit local residents. 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 11 Vote by List Placement Overall, the question-led wording tested stronger than the elements-led wording. 1 - Will definitely vote YES 2 3 4 Neutral 5-7 No Question-led. "Shall voters 37% 20% 14% 13% 15% authorize..." came before elements Elements-led. Elements came 35% 14% 21% 12% 19% before "Shall voters authorize..." Please indicate how you would vote on the following measure if it were on the ballot today... (V1-V8) 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 12 6
Vote by Listed Elements Stressed Reading BART or Senior/Student Fares first tested stronger than reading Roads/Safety or Traffic first. 1 - Will definitely vote YES 2 3 4 Neutral 5-7 No Stress BART & 35% 19% 17% 14% 14% Senior/Student Fares Stress 32% 17% 17% 21% 13% Roads/Safety & Traffic Please indicate how you would vote on the following measure if it were on the ballot today... (V1-V8) 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 13 Vote by Elements Listed First/Last Leading with BART was the strongest question wording, followed by leading with Traffic. However, leading with Traffic resulted in elevated opposition. 1 - Will definitely vote YES 2 3 4 Neutral 5-7 No BART first, 42% 13% 19% 15% 11% Senior/Student fares last Traffic first, 41% 15% 15% 22% 7% Roads/Safety last Senior/Student 37% 20% 17% 13% 13% fares first, BART last Roads/Safety first, 24% 20% 19% 19% 18% Traffic last Please indicate how you would vote on the following measure if it were on the ballot today... (V1-V8) 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 14 7
Conclusions A measure to augment and extend the existing county transportation sales tax is supported by more than two-thirds of Alameda County voters. The proposed ballot question wording is clear and understandable to voters. A privately financed communication effort will help bolster support for a measure. A low turnout scenario is anticipated, was tested for in this research, and should not significantly impact outcome. 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 15 Contacts Alex Evans Alex@EMCresearch.com 510-550-8920 Ruth Bernstein Ruth@EMCresearch.com 510-550-8922 Sara LaBatt Sara@EMCresearch.com 510-550-8924 2014 Alameda CTC Research | 16 8
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