4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation February 23, 2018 Forward Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

4q 2017 earnings presentation
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation February 23, 2018 Forward Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation February 23, 2018 Forward Looking Statements 2 This presentation contains certain statements that may be deemed forward - looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of


slide-1
SLIDE 1

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation

February 23, 2018

slide-2
SLIDE 2

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

2

Forward Looking Statements

This presentation contains certain statements that may be deemed “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, that address activities, events or developments that our management intends, expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words like "expect," "anticipate," "estimate," “outlook”, "project," "strategy," "intend," "plan," "target," "goal," "may," "will," "should" and "believe" or other variations or similar terminology. Although we believe forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results or performance of the company to be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: general economic and financial conditions in the U.S. and globally; growth rates and cyclicality of the industries we serve; the impact of scheduled turnarounds and significant unplanned downtime and interruptions of production or logistics operations as a result of mechanical issues or other unanticipated events such as fires, severe weather conditions, and natural disasters; price fluctuations and supply of raw materials; our operations requiring substantial capital; failure to develop and commercialize new products or technologies; loss of significant customer relationships; adverse trade and tax policies; extensive environmental, health and safety laws that apply to our operations; hazards associated with chemical manufacturing, store and transportation; litigation associated with chemical manufacturing and our business operations generally; inability to acquire and integrate businesses, assets, products or technologies; protection of our intellectual property and proprietary information; prolonged work stoppages as a result of labor difficulties; cybersecurity incidents; failure to maintain effective internal controls; our inability to achieve some or all of the anticipated benefits of the spin-off from Honeywell including uncertainty regarding qualification for expected tax treatment and indebtedness incurred in connection with the spin-off; fluctuations in our stock price; and tax reform or other changes in laws or regulations applicable to our business. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this release. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results, developments and business decisions may differ from those envisaged by such forward-looking statements. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016. Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation includes certain non‐GAAP financial measures intended to supplement, not to act as substitutes for, comparable GAAP measures. Reconciliations of non‐GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures are provided in the appendix of the presentation. Investors are urged to consider carefully the comparable GAAP measures and the reconciliations to those measures provided. Non-GAAP measures in this presentation may be calculated in a way that is not comparable to similarly-titled measures reported by other companies.

slide-3
SLIDE 3

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

3

Overview

  • Strong 2017 Results: Sales $1.5B, Net Income $147M, Cash Flow from Operations $135M
  • Robust Operations While Achieving Record Safety Performance; 4Q17 Planned Plant

Turnaround Completed On Time and On Budget

  • 1Q18 Weather-Related Production Issue Resolved As Expected – ~$30M Unfavorable

Impact to Pre-Tax Income

  • 2017 Saw Improved Conditions Across Nylon and Intermediates While Agriculture

Fundamentals Were Challenging – Expect Similar Industry Conditions in 2018

  • Tax Reform Significantly Benefits Income and Cash Flow
slide-4
SLIDE 4

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

4

4Q 2017 Financial Summary

Strong Operational Performance and Improved Market Conditions

$259.3 $370.4

  • Sales Up 43%: Volume +25%, Price +18%

– Market Pricing +2%, Raw Material Pass Through +16%

  • Strong Operational Performance, Improved Market Conditions

($29.6)

(11.4%)

$38.8

10.5%

  • 4Q16 Includes (~$44M) Impact of Unplanned Outages
  • 4Q17 Planned Turnaround Completed As Expected (~$20M)
  • 4Q17 Favorable ~$4M LIFO Reserve Adjustment

($24.7) $72.4

  • 2017 Includes ~$53M One-Time Net Tax Benefit

($0.81) $2.31

  • EPS Up $1.41 vs. Prior Year ex- One-Time Net Tax Benefit

$20.1 $16.9

  • Cash Flow From Operations $36M, Down ($11M) vs. Prior Year
  • Working Capital Increase Due To 4Q16 Unplanned Outages
  • Capex $19M, Down ($8M) vs. Prior Year

Comments

4Q 2016 4Q 2017

($ Millions, Except Per Share Amounts)

Sales EBITDA

Margin %

Net Income Free Cash Flow EPS (Diluted)

See Appendix in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA, EBITDA Margin, Net Income and EPS ex- One-Time Net Tax Benefit, and Free Cash Flow, which are non-GAAP measures; Free cash flow = net cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures

slide-5
SLIDE 5

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

5

4Q17 One-Time Net Tax Benefit

Re-Measurement of Net Deferred Tax Liability Reduces Future Cash Tax Obligation

Reported Net Tax Benefit Ex-Tax Benefit

Income Before Taxes

$23

  • $23

Income Tax Expense (Benefit)

($49) ($53) $4

Net Income

$72 ($53) $19

EPS (Diluted)

$2.31 ($1.71) $0.60

($ Millions, Except Per Share Amounts) See Appendix in this presentation for a reconciliation of Net Income and EPS ex- One-Time Net Tax Benefit, which are non-GAAP measures

slide-6
SLIDE 6

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

6

Full Year 2017 Financial Summary

Strong Volume, Earnings and Cash Flow Performance

$1,191.5 $1,475.2

  • Sales Up 24%: Volume +9%, Price +15%

– Market Pricing +3%, Raw Material Pass Through +12%

  • Strong Operational Performance, Improved Market Conditions

$96.0

8.1%

$200.8

13.6%

  • 2016 Includes (~$44M) Unfavorable Impact of Unplanned

Outages, Partially Offset by ~$15.5M One-Time Benefit

$34.1 $146.7

  • 2017 Includes ~$53M One-Time Net Tax Benefit
  • Pre-Tax Interest Expense Up $6M vs. Prior Year

$1.12 $4.72

  • EPS Up $1.88 or 168% vs. Prior Year ex- One-Time Net Tax

Benefit

$29.7 $48.2

  • Cash Flow From Operations $135M, Up $21M vs. Prior Year
  • Capex $86M, Up $2M vs. Prior Year

Comments

FY 2016 FY 2017

($ Millions, Except Per Share Amounts)

Sales EBITDA

Margin %

Net Income Free Cash Flow EPS (Diluted)

See Appendix in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA, EBITDA Margin, Net Income and EPS ex- One-Time Net Tax Benefit, and Free Cash Flow, which are non-GAAP measures; Free cash flow = net cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures

slide-7
SLIDE 7

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

7

Nylon Industry Outlook

Industry Conditions Improved But Remain Dynamic

What We’re Seeing What We’re Expecting Nylon

  • Stricter environmental controls

in China drive lower utilization, higher costs and plant downtime

  • Industry spreads fluctuating near

marginal producer cost

  • North America supply/demand

remains in balance following industry outages

  • Continued dynamic China

supply environment

  • Steady nylon end market

demand growth

(1) Sources: Tecnon OrbiChem and PCI Wood Mackenzie Asia = Caprolactam Asia Import Contract (Taiwan & S. Korea) Global Composite = Weighted Avg Spreads From U.S., Europe, China, Other Asia

Spread ($/MT)

Key Industry Spreads (1)

4Q17 YoY 4Q17 vs. 3Q17 Global Composite BNZ-CPL 44% 10% Asia BNZ-CPL 40% 28% Asia CPL-Resin 1% (17%) 300 600 900 1200 1500 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Global Composite BNZ-CPL Spread Asia BNZ-CPL Spread Asia CPL-Resin Spread

slide-8
SLIDE 8

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

8

Ammonium Sulfate (AS) Industry Outlook

Nitrogen Prices Firming, Remain Cautious on Fundamentals

What We’re Seeing What We’re Expecting Ammonium Sulfate

  • AS price more stable relative to

recent Nitrogen pricing

  • China urea utilization remains

low with reduction in exports supporting firmer global pricing

  • High stock to use ratios keep

pressure on crop prices

  • Global urea supply remains long
  • Tough agriculture fundamentals

to continue pressuring growers

  • Sustain AS value proposition on

sulfur nutrition

(1) As reported in Blue, Johnson

Key Industry Prices (1)

Avg Corn Belt AS price (granular $/ston N content basis) 4Q17 YoY 4Q17 vs. 3Q17 Corn Belt Granular AS 6% 5% Corn Belt Urea 8% 21% Avg Corn Belt Urea price ($/ston N content basis) 400 500 600 700 800 1000 1200 1400 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17

Avg Corn Belt AS price (granular $/ston N content basis) Avg Corn Belt Urea price ($/ston N content basis)

slide-9
SLIDE 9

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

9

Chemical Intermediates Industry Outlook

Stable End Market Environment

What We’re Seeing What We’re Expecting Chemical Intermediates

  • Phenol / Acetone demand

steady

  • Refinery grade propylene (RGP)

input price up significantly in 4Q17

  • End market conditions to remain

favorable

  • North America Acetone industry

supply rationalization offset by increased Acetone imports

Key Industry Prices (1)

Cents per Pound

(1) As reported in IHS Markit 4Q17 YoY 4Q17 vs. 3Q17 Acetone, Large Buyer 40% 14% Refinery Grade Propylene 50% 25% 20 40 60 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17

Acetone, Large Buyer Refinery Grade Propylene

slide-10
SLIDE 10

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

10

1Q18 Production Update

Weather-Related Production Issue Resolved as Expected

1Q18 Weather-Related Event

Fixed Cost Absorption Lost Sales Supplementary Raw Materials Repair/Maintenance

1Q18 Pre-Tax Income Impact ~$30M Comments

  • Experienced a temporary production issue in our ammonia plant at

Hopewell, VA facility related to severe winter weather – Caprolactam and resin production rates were reduced at their respective Hopewell and Chesterfield, VA facilities – Evaluating potential business interruption insurance claim

  • ASIX plants running at planned rates as of first week of February

– Completed the required mechanical work in ~2 ½ weeks

  • Shifting timing of 2018 planned plant turnaround schedule

– Total full year pre-tax income impact remains at $30-$35M – ~2/3rd impact in 3Q18, ~30% in 2Q18 and remainder in 1Q18

  • Expect robust operational performance for remainder of 2018

– Proactive maintenance and mechanical integrity program to support high utilization rates

slide-11
SLIDE 11

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

11

Tax Reform – Anticipated Impact

Favorable Impact to ASIX Income and Cash Flow

Impact of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

  • 4Q17 one-time net tax benefit ~$53M primarily related to

re-measurement of net deferred tax liability at a lower corporate tax rate (35%  21%) – Reduces future cash tax obligation

  • Expect lower effective tax rate in 2018 and beyond

– Reduction of federal corporate tax rate more than

  • ffsets elimination of certain deductions
  • Adoption of full expensing of capital expenditures to have

a favorable impact on cash tax rate

  • Favorable impact on net income and cash flow further

positions ASIX to generate incremental value

~25%

2018 Estimated Effective Tax Rate

~15%

2018 Estimated Cash Tax Rate

~38% ~25%

Historical 2018 Estimate

Effective Tax Rate 13% Reduction in Effective Tax Rate = ~$0.60 EPS benefit (1)

(1) For illustrative purposes only – assumes full year 2017 pre-tax income and diluted weighted average common shares outstanding

slide-12
SLIDE 12

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

12

Cash Flow

Strong Cash Flow Generation; Deployment to Create Further Shareowner Value

  • Nearly $70M of Free Cash Flow generated since spin-off

– Improved plant production rates – Driving higher-value product mix – Efficient working capital performance

  • Amended credit facility optimizes capital structure

– Provides further optionality to pursue value-creating

  • pportunities
  • Tax Cuts and Jobs Act benefits income and cash flow

– ASIX well positioned to generate incremental value

Trailing 12-Month Cash Flow

($ Millions)

Cash Generation and Deployment

50 70 90 110 130 150 170 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17

Operating Cash Flow Capex

slide-13
SLIDE 13

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

13

2018 Outlook

Expect Current Industry Conditions to Continue, Focus on Organic Investments

  • Capex expected to be $110-$120M, including $20-$30M incremental investments in high-

return growth and cost savings projects

  • Expect continued strong working capital performance
  • Tax reform to have favorable impact on net income and cash flow
  • Planned turnarounds expected to be consistent with historical levels in total ($30-35M)
  • Continued proactive maintenance to support high utilization rates
  • ~$30M unfavorable impact to 1Q18 pre-tax income as a result of weather-related temporary

production issue

  • Anticipate similar supply/demand environment to 2017 across major product lines

– Nylon: industry spreads fluctuating near marginal producer cost – Ammonium Sulfate: pricing firming into season, cautious on nitrogen market fundamentals – Chemical Intermediates: stable North America market environment

Commercial Operational Cash / Other

slide-14
SLIDE 14

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

14

AdvanSix Strategy And Priorities

Well Positioned for Strong Operational and Financial Performance Over Long Term

Focused Strategy Delivered In 2017 2018 Priorities

  • Rigorous commitment to
  • perational excellence
  • Drive high value product and

regional mix

  • Continuous enhancement of R&D

capabilities

  • Upgrade current chemistry via new

product pipeline

  • Balanced and disciplined capital

allocation  Robust production output, sales volume up 9%  Achieved record safety performance  $201M EBITDA – optimizing results in dynamic market environment  Successfully built up standalone company functions  Funded pension provides flexibility in future periods  Free cash flow up $18M to $48M

  • High operating rates to continue
  • Continued strong working capital

management

  • Final NOx controls system installed
  • Maximize high value product mix
  • Execute high-return growth and

cost savings capex projects

  • Fully exit transition services
slide-15
SLIDE 15

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

15

Appendix: Reconciliation of non-GAAP Measures to GAAP Measures

slide-16
SLIDE 16

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

16

Reconciliation Of Net Cash Provided By Operating Activities To Free Cash Flow

(in $ thousands) The Company believes that this metric is useful to investors and management as a measure to evaluate our ability to generate cash flow from business operations and the impact that this cash flow has on our liquidity.

slide-17
SLIDE 17

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

17

Reconciliation Of Net Income To EBITDA

(in $ thousands) The Company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information as they are used by the Company’s management to evaluate the Company’s operating performance, enhance a reader’s understanding of the financial performance of the Company, and facilitate a better comparison among fiscal periods and performance relative to its competitors, as these non-GAAP measures exclude items that are not considered core to the Company’s operations.

slide-18
SLIDE 18

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

18

Reconciliation of Net Income and Diluted EPS to Net Income and Diluted EPS Excluding One-Time Net Tax Benefit

(in $ thousands) The Company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information as they are used by the Company’s management to evaluate the Company’s operating performance, enhance a reader’s understanding of the financial performance of the Company, and facilitate a better comparison among fiscal periods and performance relative to its competitors, as these non-GAAP measures exclude items that are not considered core to the Company’s operations.

slide-19
SLIDE 19

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

19

Appendix

slide-20
SLIDE 20

4Q 2017 Earnings Presentation – February 23, 2018

20

AdvanSix Financial Drivers

Raws and Industry Pricing/Spreads Key Performance Considerations

Natural Gas

($/MMBTU)

Sulfur

($/lton)

Asia BNZ-CPL Spread

($/MT)

Acetone Large Buyer Price (c/lb) Corn Belt AS Price

($/ston)

WTI Crude Oil

($/bbl)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

*2017 Net Income excludes ~$53M one-time net tax benefit Industry inputs represent approximate annual averages; Sources: IHS Markit, Tecnon OrbiChem, Blue, Johnson

AdvanSix

Sales / Net Income ($M)

1,789 1,767 1,790 1,329 1,192 166 119 84 64 34 Sales Net Income

$95 $100 $90 $50 $45 $50 $2.80 $3.65 $4.40 $2.65 $2.45 $3.10 $175 $125 $125 $130 $75 $80 $1330 $1100 $1005 $900 $725 $1050 $390 $330 $285 $295 $240 $235 $0.50 $0.65 $0.65 $0.35 $0.30 $0.45

2017*

1,475 93