2021 Mayors Proposed Budget October 2020 1 2020 Economic Impacts - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2021 Mayor’s Proposed Budget

October 2020

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2020 Economic Impacts

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February

Economic Recession Begins

March

Worldwide Pandemic declared

April/May

Near Halt to U.S. Economy, Record Unemployment

April – Dec.

Leverage $189 million to Support Denver’s pandemic response

April – Sept.

City Revenues Forecasted to Drop $220 million, Worst Loss Since 1933

Retail and Food Services YTD Monthly Sales

3

• 21.4%
• 4.3%

11.3% 12.8%

• 36.5%
• 18.6%
• 13.5%
• 4.2%

19.8%

• 18.5%
• 0.5%
• 2.2%
• 16.8%
• 2.1%
• 38.0%
• 10.7%
• 1.9%

4.0%

• 34.2%
• 6.6%
• 3.3%
• 20.7%

36.2%

• 11.3%
• 15.8%
• 19.2%
• 9.0%
• 15.7%

Food services & drinking places Motor vehicle & parts dealers Building material & garden dealers Food & Beverage Stores Clothing & accessories Electronics & appliance stores Furniture & home stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Nonstore Retailers (Online & mail-order) Department Stores Health & Personal Care Stores Sports, hobby, music & book stores Gas Stations TOTAL: RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES

YTD thru July 2020 from YTD thru July 2019 Percent Change

U.S. Retail Sales Denver Retail Sales

General Fund Forecast

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866 810 871 903 935 1,036 1,125 1,204 1,238 1,309 1,345 1,406 1,265 1,328

• 200

400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Est. 21 Est.

Millions

Total General Fund Revenue

Sales and Use Tax Forecast

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Note: 2021 factors in new sales tax revenue from out-of-state retailers and expiring TIF districts.

$431 $388 $410 $441 $451 $493 $555 $582 $614 $657 $691 $720 $637 $734

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Est. 21 Est.

Millions 2008-2019 Actual Collections, 2020-2021 Estimated

Lodgers' Tax

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$14.6 $11.9$13.3 $15.2$15.9 $17.6 $21.1 $23.1 $25.0 $32.1$31.8 $35.0 $11.7 $17.7

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Est. 21 Est.

Millions

2008-2019 Actual Collections, 2020-2021 Estimated

2021 Budget - Priorities

• Identifies $154 million in agency savings
• Reflects priorities of financial stability and equity
• Responds to COVID-19 pandemic
• Supports people experiencing homelessness and under-

resourced individuals

• Keeps people safe and neighborhoods safe
• Gets people back to work by rebuilding our local economy

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2021 Budget – Agency Reductions

• $154 million in Agency Savings including:
• $39 million due to more than 400 vacancies
• $13.8 million in reduced overtime spending for uniformed

employees, and smaller recruit classes in safety agencies

• $3.2 million in savings due to a forecasted smaller jail population
• $24 million fewer dollars transferred from the General Fund to

support capital improvement and fleet replacement

• $3.9 million in facilities savings

8

2021 Budget Increases

• $5 million - operation of new 48th Ave Shelter
• $1.5 million - homeless outreach resources
• $3 million - property tax relief, TANF cash support, eviction assistance

(DHS)

• $1 million - STAR alternative response program grant match
• $827,000 - new park land and COVID cleaning in rec centers
• $500,000 - youth violence prevention programming
• $300,000 - immigration legal defense fund
• $3.5 million - Colorado Convention Center operations based on possible

COVID closure for part of 2021

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2021 Budget Capital Investments

• Accelerating the Elevate

Denver Bond Program and launching a $170 million fourth debt issuance

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$478 million in capital delivery through 2023, including

2021 Budget Capital Investments

Every $1 million invested = $2 million in economic output

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Elevate Denver = 2x the size and impact of Better Denver Bond

2021 Mayor’s Proposed Budget

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Economic Condition: Is the Economy Improving?

13 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

2019 2020 2021 2022

Millions

Projected Core Sales and Use Tax Collections

Moving Quarterly Average Scenario 1 Baseline (Pre-Virus) Scenario 2 (May Forecast) Scenario 2 (July Revision) Scenario 3 (Virus Resurgence)