2019 BFG Q1 Webinar The Rebound Q1 2018 Rebounding Market - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2019 BFG Q1 Webinar The Rebound Q1 2018 Rebounding Market - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 27, 2022 292 likes •655 views

2019 BFG Q1 Webinar The Rebound Q1 2018 Rebounding Market Performance Source: Bloomberg Q4 2018 vs. Q1 2019- A Sharp Return Trip Source: Bloomberg 2018 vs 2019 From Stop to Go Source: FinViz.com Market Performance Recap 4 th

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2019 – BFG Q1 Webinar “The Rebound”

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Q1 2018 – Rebounding Market Performance

Source: Bloomberg

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Q4 2018 vs. Q1 2019- A Sharp Return Trip

Source: Bloomberg

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2018 vs 2019 – From Stop to Go

Source: FinViz.com

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Market Performance Recap

Stock Markets YTD 4th QTR 18 1st - 3rd QTR 18 2017 Domestic Large Cap Equity Index 1 13.65%

  • 13.80%

7.71% 21.83% Domestic Small Cap Equity Index 2 14.57%

  • 19.10%

3.58% 14.65% International Developed Equity Index 3 10.15%

  • 12.40%

1.35% 25.03% International Emerging Market Equity Index 4 9.90%

  • 7.34%
  • 1.09%

37.28% Bond & Commodity Markets YTD 4th QTR 3rd QTR 2017 U.S. Bonds Index 5 2.94% 1.73% 0.02% 3.54% Commodity Index6 6.32%

  • 9.41%
  • 2.02%

1.70%

1 S&P 500 Index, 2 Russell 2000 Index, 3 MSCI EAFE Index, 4 MSCI Emerging Markets Index, 5 Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, 6 Bloomberg Commodity Index
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BFG Portfolio Tactical Positions

Overweights Underweight U.S. Equities International Equities Technology High Volatility Financials Healthcare Dividend Stocks

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The Inversion

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All Eyes on the Fed

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Last Year vs. This Year

*Source: YCharts 3/28/19

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Predictive Powers – Inversion 10 Weeks Plus Plus

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Higher Yields are GOOD for Bonds

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Beware the Hunt for Yield

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Next Move for the Fed?

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Economic Outlook

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Recession and Recovery

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Auto Purchases At Low Levels

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New Home Construction Below Trend

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Mortgage Rates Trending Down

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Consumer Spending Still Growing at 2%

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Manufacturing Continues to Grow

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GDP Growth Returns to 2% Range

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Stable Inflation

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Consumer Confidence Remains Elevated

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Corporate Tax Cuts Boosted Earnings

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Market Valuations Assume Continued Earnings Growth

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Convergence of Wages and Unemployment Rate

Source: Charles Schwab, Department of Labor, FactSet, as of March 31, 2019. Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers.

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Possible Effects of Trade War

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Low Exports Limits Impact on U.S. Economy

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History of Global Recessions

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Closing Thoughts

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How to Make Money in Stocks

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Importance of Diversification

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Last Minute Tax Tips

  • Contributions can be made to IRAs for 2018 until 4/15/19

– Limit: $5,500 or $6,500 if age 50+

  • Limits going up in 2019

– 401(k): $18,500 in 2018 to $19,000 in 2019

  • For those 50+, an additional $6,000 can be contributed

– IRA: $5,500 in 2018 to $6,000 in 2019

  • 50+ catch-up = $1,000

– SIMPLE IRA: $12,500 in 2018 to $13,000 in 2019

  • 50+ catch-up = $3,000

– Estate Taxes: Lifetime Exclusion from $11.18MM in 2018 to $11.4MM in 2019

  • Annual Gift Exclusion remains unchanged at $15,000 per person
  • Consider a back-door Roth IRA if income too high
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Disclosure

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy,

  • r product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or

undertaken by Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.. Please remember to contact Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd., in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

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Q & A

Follow-up Questions please contact us at: Office Phone: 518-720-3333 Email Contact: planningpaysoff@Bouchey.com